Record cold: Single digit to subzero Valentine's Day expected for much of NE USA

There’s a cold wind blowing for Valentine’s Day, and it blows from the Arctic.


h/t to 

Dr. Ryan Maue says it’s going to be one for the century old record books:


157 thoughts on “Record cold: Single digit to subzero Valentine's Day expected for much of NE USA

    • Ever notice that it isn’t weather till it affects the media? Not that I care. It’s in the upper 80’s here on the Indian Ocean.

      • It’s nearly the same on our terrace fifty yards across the beach from the Med. in southern Spain. Strange that the sea has been fifty yards away ever since I bought the place thirty years ago, when we are supposed to be seeing catastrophic sea level rise. I wonder if the scientists could be wrong?

      • “I wonder if the scientists could be wrong?”
        Since they’re not scientists, of course they’re wrong, Old’un.
        Scientists can be wrong, as well.

    • Global Warming will do that…..yep
      The same air the melts ice when it’s in the Arctic…
      ….brings record cold when it’s not

    • Someone should dig up links from a few winters ago when we were experiencing a series of “polar vortexes.” I seem to recall the warmist camp – wasn’t it Gavin Schmidt? – explaining in a slick video how this is “just what one should expect” in a warming world, as the warm tropical winds push and pull the cold-air mass over the pole into ever more contorted bulges and waves, ever further south. Extending that logic to the current El Nino winter, shouldn’t we be experiencing even more polar vortexes further south than ever before?… But no, this is the first (and likely the last) of the winter. It used to be that it took a decade or more to disprove conjectures in climate science. The half-life of explanations in climate science seem to be getting shorter and shorter.

    • Sorry – I was having a really bad day when I wrote this last month.
      I was tired of all the “”warmest year evah!!!” alarmist nonsense during an El Nino. So I called down the cold on you Eastern warmists…
      Now I feel really, like, totally, I mean, y’know, bad.
      I won’t do this again. Promise.
      Apologies, Allan
      OK – enough!
      I’ve had it with you Eastern warmists.
      So in February, I’m calling down some brutally frigid winter weather on you.
      Mark you calendars and get out your long woollies…

      • Allan MacRae February 13, 2016 at 11:11 am
        As one from New England how do I respond? Perhaps something old, ,,from Salem town. More weight

        (truthful this has defined the whole skeptical movement)

      • Told ya so, a month ago…
        Seriously, I think we will see a global cooling trend, starting as early as 2H2017.
        By this statement I mean that temperatures will drop below the zero anomaly and actual global cooling will commence then, not just the reversal of the El Nino warming, which has probably already started. It will take several years of data before this global cooling trend can be differentiated from natural variation.
        We predicted this cooling trend in an article written in 2002, to commence by 2020-2030. We now think global cooling will commence by 2020 or sooner.
        Hope to be wrong. Cold weather kills – about 20 times as many people as hot weather.
        Best to all, Allan
        UK politicians have been warned again and again about their destructive and dangerous energy policies, based on false global warming alarmism.
        Cheap, abundant reliable energy is the lifeblood of society – it IS that simple. However, green fanatics have destroyed this vital principle with their egregious “green energy” falsehoods.
        We wrote with confidence in 2002 during our debate with the Pembina Institute, when we opposed the Kyoto Accord.:
        “The ultimate agenda of pro-Kyoto advocates is to eliminate fossil fuels, but this would result in a catastrophic shortfall in global energy supply – the wasteful, inefficient energy solutions proposed by Kyoto advocates simply cannot replace fossil fuels.”
        We also wrote in the same debate:
        “Climate science does not support the theory of catastrophic human-made global warming – the alleged warming crisis does not exist.”
        All of our 2002 statements have now proved correct except one. Our sole remaining prediction from 2002 is for global cooling to commence by 2020-2030. We now think global cooling will be apparent by 2020 or sooner, possibly as early as 2017 after the current El Nino runs its course.

  1. We should easily our record low in Roanoke on Sunday.
    If it keeps getting warmer, we’ll all freeze death.

    • I was told by a Mainer years ago about “25 snd 25.” When it’s -25 and blowing 25 mph, if your spit into the wind, it will free nd crack before it hits the ground. In Iowa, in the early 80s, it got so cold the dashboard in my car cracked up the middle, there was frost on the screws of the light switch on inside of the wall near my front door, and I bought an electrically-heated dipstick to put into my car’s oil pan on very cold night—made a big difference getting my car started in the morning.

      • When I was going to college in the 1950s in St.Paul Minnesota I used to bring in the car battery on cold nights(-10 or colder). It helped a lot. (I parked in the street and could not plug in a heater.)

      • Call that cold? When I were a lad, it were so cold we ‘ad to buy fur coats for all t’ sheep, and we ‘ad ter piddle into a bowl standing right by fire, or else yer pee would freeze afor it hit t’ground. We ‘ad to send me little bruvver aht to fetch more firewood, and they found ‘im days later just a few feet down path .. stiff as a board, ‘e was. Run down by a skiddin’ ice cream van.Terrible days, them were. I can still ‘ear sound of grandma’s teef chatterin’, even after they fell out.
        Last time we take a holiday in Puerto Rico, that’s for sure

      • Call that cold? In the US Virgin Islands when it clouded over and the wind picked up we’d have wind-chills down to 75F/24C. Only tourists left at the beach. We’d shudder when we remember the all-time low of 1999 (52F/11C). People drove down from the mountains to escape that one. Now I live in a cold place and work outside and often get wet and find that I can endure it better than many natives because my body is still in denial.

      • In Northern India in my youth was amused to see the drivers of those painted lorries lighting bonfires underneath the engines at dawn.

      • In Siberia I went outside with a friend and pissed rose bushes, ( a local sport when drinking Vodka ) it was freezing before it hit the ground ( minus 43c ) don’t say much for alcoholic anti-freeze.

      • live here in central maine and not actually true but it sure feels like it would
        I have had good windshields crack in it though, was -28f with 20+ mph wind and as soon as car warmed enough to toss heat through defrost vents (climate control waits until engine warm before turning on blower) within seconds I had crack going full width.
        tonight mean temp supposed to be around -15f and windy, no idea what wind chills will be.

    • Child’s play. It was so cold in my childhood bedroom that thick frost built up on the INSIDE of the window!

      • You had windows eh ? There was no frost on the inside of our windows because we didn’t have any glass or panes, just holes. We used to dream of havin’ windows, none but Southern softies had windows when I was a lad….
        H/T to Monty Python’s Yorkshireman Sketch

      • We used to say Jack Frost visited, but some fool used that as a movie title or some such thing. Now one has to actually write and search images with frost on windows to see what Pamela is recalling from her childhood.

  2. Wow ! -40 Deg. F
    For a while there Ryan, I thought you were saying -40 deg. C.
    Well I guess I can relax, if it’s only going to be -40 F.

  3. No problem … Valentine’s Day is on Sunday, so just stay in and under the covers … and for those still able to do it, read a good book … problem solved.

  4. It’s almost here.
    6:36 PM EST Friday 12 February 2016
    Special weather statement in effect for:
    City of Toronto
    Occasional Poor visibilities in sudden bursts of snowfall this evening.
    A vigorous cold front is moving southwards across southern Ontario. Ahead of this cold front convective snowshowers have developed and are producing locally intense bursts of visibility reducing snow. At their worst visibilities could be as low as 250 metres. Motorists should proceed with caution in these heavier snow showers.
    The snow is not expected to linger at any one place for a long period of time thus local snowfall amounts are not expected to be much more than 5 cm.
    As conditions clear up later this evening bitterly cold air is expected to create extreme wind chill values after midnight.

  5. Wow, it’s so cold all of Ontario and Quebec has turned white with frostbite, at least according to that map. 😉 It’s funny how the weather is always held up at customs.

  6. It’s not just going to be cold in the U.S. but also in Canada where all that “imported” (to the U.S.) cold air comes from. Forecast low for Toronto tonight is -23°C (-9°F) and the high for tomorrow -17°C (1°F). Average low temperature this time of year for Toronto is -10°C (14°F), average high -2°C (28°F). It’s going to “warm up” for Valentine’s Day to a balmy -12°C (10°F). At least this February has been warmer (so far) than 2015. Last February was the Coldest on record in Toronto, although the news reports claimed February globally was the Warmest on record – and pigs can fly. Of course we all know that temperatures that are below average AND above average are caused by AGW.

      • I don’t know guys. Canada is not showing any of that nasty green and pink stuff. I love how the weather always follows political boundaries both locally and internationally. sarc

  7. Here in central Virginia the drums are beating to tell us of the approaching cold, with the chill being deepest on Sunday. However, I’d be surprised if a new cold record is set here, since the current record is 5 degrees F and so far the predictions are around 12 F. Now, out here in the rural wilds of Mechanicsville, it gets colder than in Richmond; but even here, colder than 5 degrees would be a surprise. Last year we had down to -1 F at least once, and I’ve seen it at -6 some years ago (all-time record is -12 for Richmond). So–yes, it’s getting cold, and I’d just as soon it would moderate a bit; but it doesn’t look like anything exceptional.

  8. When traveling to New York in the colder months I’ve noticed that most people are completely unprepared for anything below, roughly, 28 degrees. They don’t wear hats, they have funny little calf-skin gloves, and their over coats have gaps in the closures that allow cold air to pour in. I also found that a face cord of seasoned hardwood goes for upward of 400 bucks, not including delivery, (yes, that’s a face cord)…
    I would pity the poor souls for their ignorance if not for their constant arrogance about all things natural and scientific,

    • I don’t often encounter 28F, but I did last month in Shanghai. I had no hat, no coat and no gloves. It was a bit warm for walking but then we got a nice light drizzle to cool things down – perfect walking conditions.

    • Like the ladies wearing winter boots with stiletto heels or no treads…not good on ice.
      Being from ‘northern’ Ontario, I’m use to having ‘squared’ tires on my way to work in the mornings and needing to run my vehicle at lunch hour so it will start at end of the day since there were no electrical outlets for day time parking spots in the little city I was residing in. Also noticed the younger tend to want to be fashionable over practical in winters…the youth eh.
      Not looking forward to the expected cool cycle we’ll be heading into next few decades…brr-r.

    • Sounds like you were in New York city, not New York State. There is a big difference. A full cord of split seasoned hardwood, delivered is around $200. People inside where I work where hats to keep warm. I have not worn my arctic coat this winter because until today it wasn’t needed. The gloves, well you don’t need heavy gloves until it is 10 degrees F or less. As for the coats with the slits, that is something a city person would where.

  9. Will be close here in SE VA on the 14th. Forecast 19°F record 18°F, although the record for as late as Feb 9 is 4°F so it can get colder , much colder in Feb.

  10. This will only be a dim memory when they declare 2016 “the warmest year on record.” Whatever that means. 😉

      • Yeah. We will learn how estimating data makes scientific results more accurate and then they will show us how slower cooling = warming. Get the popcorn popped.

      • philincalifornia,

        Brandon or Nick will be along to explain that one to you soon, I’m sure.

        Start with:
        I’m sure Nick knows the particulars better than me, but my basic understanding is that it’s not unreasonable to expect turbulent flows to develop when one part of a system is a net energy gainer and another part is a net energy loser. It follows then that a net energy gain over the entire system would tend to increase flow and thus turbulence. Also stands to reason that something like polar vortexes would get a bit more wobbly, venture to slightly lower latitudes slightly more often. Conversely, warmer air from lower latitudes increasingly makes it to higher latitudes in other parts of the increasingly wobbly vortex.
        Very noisy process, weather. One event doesn’t “prove” a climatic trend one way or another, but noisier weather is certainly not inconsistent with a climate system that is on balance gradually accumulating more energy over time.

        Get the popcorn popped.

        You ever notice that it pops faster with the lid on rather than off while holding the burner at the same setting?

      • Brandon:
        The need to for mental masturbation about global temperature anomalies = no dangerous anthropogenic global warming signals
        Pass it on
        (and please do try to stop doing it in public)

      • @ Brandon Gates – February 12, 2016 at 10:49 pm

        You ever notice that it pops faster with the lid on rather than off while holding the burner at the same setting?

        Yup, and iffen someone could prove that the earth’s atmosphere has a lid on it then they could easily prove that all the CAGW claims are NOT “junk science” idiotic foolishness.

      • @ Brandon Gates – February 12, 2016 at 10:49 pm

        You ever notice that it pops faster with the lid on rather than off while holding the burner at the same setting?

        Yup, and iffen someone could prove that the earth’s atmosphere has a lid on it then they could easily prove that all the CAGW claims are NOT “junk science”.

      • We’ve been down this road before: Don’t bring my name into the conversation if you don’t want me to reply. Surely you’re not so feeble-minded as to not understand this very simple principle. Thank you for your consideration.

      • Except Brandon, what you claim is wrong, Since most of the heat gain is supposed to be at the poles, this reduces the temperature gradient and calms the weather – the appropriate prediction is less arctic breakout, not more.

      • bobl,

        … what you claim is wrong, Since most of the heat gain is supposed to be at the poles, this reduces the temperature gradient and calms the weather – the appropriate prediction is less arctic breakout, not more.

        While that seems intuitively correct, it doesn’t account for why the poles are supposed to warm more quickly. [1] Albedo feedback seems most commonly cited, but hypotheses invoking changes to general circulation have also been proposed. It’s those latter kind of mechanims I was thinking of when I wrote my first post.
        Also keep in mind, much of the energy moved about by weather is latent heat contained in water vapor, and surface warming due to any cause puts more of it in the atmosphere.
        The science is NOT settled on global warming, Arctic amplification and boreal winter cold snaps:
        Arctic ice melt is setting stage for severe winters
        June 6, 2012
        Cornell University
        A dramatic melt-off of Arctic sea ice due to climate change is hitting closer to home than millions of Americans might think – triggering a domino effect leading to increased odds of severe winter weather outbreaks in the Northern Hemisphere’s middle latitudes, according to new research.
        Arctic warming linked to fewer European and U.S. cold weather extremes, new study shows
        June 15, 2014
        University of Exeter
        Climate change is unlikely to lead to more days of extreme cold, similar to those that gripped the United States in a deep freeze last winter, new research has shown. The Arctic amplification phenomenon refers to the faster rate of warming in the Arctic compared to places further south. It is this phenomenon that has been linked to a spike in the number of severe cold spells experienced in recent years over Europe and North America.
        Climate change does not cause extreme winters, experts say
        March 27, 2015
        ETH Zürich
        Cold snaps like the ones that hit the eastern United States in the past winters are not a consequence of climate change. Scientists have now shown that global warming actually tends to reduce temperature variability.
        Severe weather may be linked to Arctic warming
        May 20, 2015
        University of Sheffield
        New evidence has linked Arctic warming with severe weather in countries including the UK and US. The studies are adding to the growing weight of evidence linking increased Arctic temperatures with changes in mid-latitude weather patterns.
        As I said in my first post, weather is noisy and one extreme event doesn’t “prove” a climatic trend one way or another. It also makes sense to me that research would be all over the map at present becuase of limited availability of high-quality, high-resolution data to work from. Nothing says good science to me more than a robust debate in literature.
        [1] In point of fact, only Arctic is warming faster than the global average. The Antarctic, ever the outlier, is actually cooling slightly according to RSS TLT.

      • Samuel C Cogar,

        Yup, and iffen someone could prove that the earth’s atmosphere has a lid on it then they could easily prove that all the CAGW claims are NOT “junk science”.

        Thank you for confirming that FTOP_T’s original argument was ridiculous.
        People who think “easy proof” is common feature of “real science” are probably least equipped to know it from “junk science” when they see either.

  11. Time for another chorus of :Oh Susanna.
    Sun so hot I froze to death…
    .The media is stunningly idiotic, extreme weather,global warming,climate change..
    Totally unprecedented.. since last winter.

      • around average zero point, which is actually abnormal for a strong El Nino… it should be normally be 1 million km² below normal at least to have the “normal el nino effect”
        what strikes me is that the DMI old fashioned 30% rate and coastal regions masked out measurements do just show the opposite: most ice cover of the last 10 years
        old DMI sea ice cover graph
        to phrase their words:
        “Current Sea Ice extent
        Total sea ice extent on the northern hemisphere since 2005. The ice extent values are calculated from the ice type data from the Ocean and Sea Ice, Satellite Application Facility (OSISAF), where areas with ice concentration higher than 30% are classified as ice.
        The total area of sea ice is the sum of First Year Ice (FYI), Multi Year Ice (MYI) and the area of ambiguous ice types, from the OSISAF ice type product. However, the total estimated ice area is underestimated due to unclassified coastal regions where mixed land/sea pixels confuse the applied ice type algorithm. The shown sea ice extent values are therefore recommended be used qualitatively in relation to ice extent values from other years shown in the figure. In late 2012 sea ice climatology and anomaly data will be available here.”
        it’s a shame they gonna discontinue this graph anytime soon. but maybe this year is showing the why: it shows a very unconveiniant truth about the arctic

  12. It was 82F today in Tucson Arizona. Took the pup hiking to 9000′ on Mt Wrightston. It was cold up there. She loved it. I froze.
    And we worry about 1-2 deg C. People, animals, ecosystems have evolved to adapt.

  13. Still lovin’ El Nino here in southern Alberta….was 13°C here in Lethbridge today and close the same for the next week. WE have global warming. The East just has cold weather.

  14. February is usually pretty brutal – I remember quite a few in which the wind blew incessantly for 2 weeks with temps in the single digits and lows well below zero. Pipes freezing were a constant concern. Of course those who are afraid of global warming obviously have no such memories and never had to deal with such issues, or they’d gladly welcome warmer winters.

  15. Reblogged this on 4timesayear's Blog and commented:
    February is usually pretty brutal – I remember quite a few in which the wind blew incessantly for 2 weeks with temps in the single digits and lows well below zero. Pipes freezing were a constant concern. Of course those who are afraid of global warming obviously have no such memories and never had to deal with such issues, or they’d gladly welcome warmer winters.

  16. Mind you, in ten years time these temperatures will have to be retrospectively corrected downwards to keep the illusionary warming alive.

  17. Have you ever wondered way the Eskimo can live so far north: Because they eat lots and lots of Saturated Fat. Montreal will go down to -28c tonight ;University of Cape Town deputy vice chancellor and law professor Danie Visser calls emeritus professor Tim Noakes a “force in the world”. Day 5 Bhoopchand was powerless to stop Noakes in full sail as he waded into these vested interests worldwide, showing how they are embedded in academia, have bought off top scientists and academics, sponsor dietitians’ associations – including the Association for Dietetics in SA (ADSA), whose former president Please read.

  18. P.S. It has been much colder than usual in South Colorado this winter, almost very day, for two months. We were very tired of cold, especially early in the morning. Only recently, during the last week, weather “normalized.”

  19. Cheer up folks! If the cold goes south then surely the warmth must move north. The Arctic is warming, obviously, and the models are correct.
    Any temperature measurements up north available?

  20. I don’t think we’re going to break any records in central PA, either for lows or for highs, though both will be much closer to the record mins than the maxes. Still be nasty though.

  21. It is cold here in the Bahamas also. It was cool in January but Feb has been horrid, 59 to 62 at night, high sixties to low 70’s in the day. Remember we do not have heat. The weather is hurting restaurants because it is too cold to sit outside. I may have to move further south though my friend in Mexico is screaming because of the cold. I think my other friend in Nicaragua is okay. Not hearing any screaming from Canada. I think they are all frozen.

  22. Barrie, ONTARIO
    Current Conditions
    Observed at:
    Lake Simcoe Regional Airport
    9:00 AM EST Saturday 13 February 2016
    102.8 kPa
    NNW 18 gust 31 km/h
    Wind Chill:
    Great day to fish for ice!!

  23. A good cold snap still reminds me of the 1977-78 winter in Ohio. Got cold in November, single digits in December and snow piling up, occasioned by multiple episodes of “-20’s with 20’s” that continued through February. Sat in a utility control room one night, watching electrical demand spike to unanticipated heights when phone calls came in from generating units that the coal stockpiles had frozen and dozers couldn’t keep up. A widespread outage could have killed hundreds.
    Ask anyone who has experienced such extremes and they’ll vote heatwave everytime.

  24. All just in time for Valentine Day. It is so cold that my brass monkey named John has experienced a sex reassignment and will now have to be named Jane.

  25. But CO2 has absolute control of climate-weather, natural climate-weather variations only exist in skeptics minds. With these high levels of CO2 the models say we shouldn’t even now what cold-climate-weather is.

  26. Mark from the Midwest, stop with the NYC bashing. 🙂 Some of us know how to dress, and we don’t show all our secrets to outsiders.
    Yes, I have little “ladyboots” with stiletto heels and minimal tread, a fashionable coat, and lightweight gloves, which I wear when I can, which is most of the time. And I *also *have thick-soled insulated boots and mittens and a proper zip up parka for the actually cold days.

    • It’s the Daily Mail, therefore is must be complete nonsense. There are a few light snow showers forecast for Eastern England. It will be cold, especially at night with frost. Daytime temps are likely to be 4-6 c , Positively balmy weather compared to what they get in North America. Remember this though, we all know the Daily Mail and Express routinely lie about the weather. If they are so comfortable lying in this subject, how reliable are the rest of it’s news stories?

  27. Why is it that “record breaking” lows are not evidence for global cooling while “record” highs are self evident proof of global warming?

    • ToddF
      February 13, 2016 at 8:25 am
      Have you not heard yet, science is settled in that one, the climate or weather OR WHATEVER…..all is AGW,……. “record breaking” lows or highs or neither,,,,, no record breaking or even “no records” at all, warming or cooling and even neither…..everything and enything left right up or down or nether or whatever and ever after is indisputably confirming AGW these days as all that happens at present and ever after is due to it……..the AGW….
      If you don’t believe this….please try and ask any scientist…….97% chance there you have for a confirmation… it is not a joke……….or is it! 🙂

  28. Here in Glen Rock, Pa. it’s a balmy 5 degrees F. I like it when it gets this cold, it helps to kill the ticks and chiggers. Unfortunately, all the snow we had lately is insulating the little buggers from the bitter cold.

  29. Is anyone feeling cold? Just read Jack London’s short story, “To Build a Fire,” and then finish off with the poem, “The Cremation of Sam McGee.”

  30. Dr. Ryan Maue says it’s going to be one for the century old record books:

    … it’s all due to Man increasing the atmosphere’s CO2.
    Change the world’s spellcheckers. “Cold”‘s new proper spelling is “CO2ld”.
    (Back in the 70’s when the scare was a new ice age, the scare failed because they didn’t blame it on Man. Now they can.)

  31. For my little spot on the globe (Columbus, Ohio) the lowest recorded temperature was -22 F set Jan 19, 1994. (The record high for that date is 67 F set in 1907.)
    For this weekend the records are:
    FEB 12 69 1984 -8 1917
    FEB 13 68 1938 -13 1899
    FEB 14 68 1918 -8 1905
    FEB 15 70 1954 -4 1978

  32. This morning I was reading the electronic versions of the NY Times and Washington Post. Nary a word about the predicted record cold for NYC or DC. Were the Progressives editor’s minds frozen out by this reality? or was it just that their warming schtick got stuck in the ice?

  33. Ohh, that explains the 150,000 dead penguins, Australia burning, African famine, and North Pole Ice disappearing. It all makes sense now……….

  34. Hey. What happened to that nice el-nino warming? It was such a great winter so far. Don’t tell me it is ending already. We’ve got another 2 months until spring. Come back el, come back.

  35. I found el
    Extreme Cold Warning
    Wind chill values between minus 38 and minus 46 C or F doesn’t matter are expected today and over night Montreal.

  36. Not that cold up here in the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont this year. Only expect temperatures to drop to -20F tonight with wind chill only to -40. Now last year was cold, -27F on Valentines Day and -35F the following week without wind chill. Winters just aren’t as cold as they used to be – at least in the last twelve months.

  37. “There’s a reason why Torontonians say ‘we the north.’
    Toronto is currently colder than Yellowknife, the city known to be the coldest in Canada. Yellowknife is sitting at -14 C today as Torontonians are facing temperatures at -26 C with wind chills at -39 C.
    Today is the coldest Feb. 13 since 1979, says climatologist Dave Phillips of Environment Canada.
    In 1979, temperatures went as low as -23.2C.
    With wind chills approaching -40 C, exposed human flesh can freeze in around 20 minutes, Phillips says.
    However, this year, temperatures have not been as bad as what we saw last year, says Phillips.
    “Last year, we had 37 days in a row where we didn’t get a melting temperature in Toronto,” Philip says.”

  38. “The results of this study showed that the relation
    between a cloud state at midlatitudes and GCR fluxes
    on long time scales is indirect, i.e., caused by GCR
    effects on extratropical cyclogenesis variations. A pos
    itive correlation between the cloud amount and GCR
    intensity, which was observed from 1983 to the early
    2000s, is due to the intensification of cyclonic activity
    when GCR fluxes intensify during the period of a
    strong polar vortex. Since the GCR effects on the
    development of extratropical cyclones weaken and
    reverse the sign when the vortex gets weak, the viola
    tion of the indicated correlation in the early 2000s can
    be related to a change of the polar vortex state. The
    obtained results give evidence for a rather important
    role of cosmic ray variations as well as for a modulating
    effect of the stratospheric polar vortex in solar–atmo
    spheric links.”

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