Ir has been a couple of months since WUWT has checked in on the progress of solar cycle 24. Right now, the sun is in “cue ball” mode, with no large visible sunspots as seen below in the most recent Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) photo:
Since there is a new analysis out at Pierre Gosselin’s website by Frank Bosse and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt, I thought it would be a good time to do an update. They write:
[The sun was] rather quiet in January. The determined solar sunspot number (SSN) was 56.6, which is 71% of the mean this far into the period, calculated using the 23 previously measured solar cycles.
The earlier peak occurring at month number 35 (fall 2011) signaled the time of the SSN maximum at the sun’s northern hemisphere. The later peaks occurring at about month no. 68 (mid 2014) are the SSN maximum for the sun’s southern hemisphere.
They also have a prediction, read about it here. Full report (in German) here.
As you can see from the plots in Figure 1, the current level of activity of solar cycle 24 seems close to that of solar cycle number 5, which occurred beginning in May 1798 and ending in December 1810 (thus falling within the Dalton Minimum). The maximum smoothed sunspot number (monthly number of sunspots averaged over a twelve-month period) observed during the solar cycle was 49.2, in February 1805 (the second lowest of any cycle to date, as a result of being part of the Dalton Minimum), and the minimum was zero.(ref: Wikipedia)
Below is what the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center has offered this month. Sunspot count continues below the red prediction line. 10.7 cm radio flux is about at the prediction level, and the Ap geomagnetic index continues to rise, suggesting that the solar magnetic dynamo might be a bit more active, but that activity isn’t translating into increased sunspots or radio flux.
Sunspot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
AP Progression
As always, there’s more at the WUWT Solar Reference Page
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I think if we had better reporting of on actual tropics temperature everyone would see what latitudes we are in currently with the solar cycle’s effect. Their weather models might even work then. As far as it remains they are inputting trash numbers into their models so they are receiving trash out. The Earth itself imo has not seen typical zonal management of temperature due exclusively to the current solar cycle. And why the current “godzilla nino” is actually a gecko.
Temperatures are not going up, up, up anywhere, its just mixed into the atmosphere by way of dipping jet stream’s conveyor belt. The tropics are cool as a cucumber.
The graph
?w=700
showed otherwise…
Sure, there’s gotta be hot spots over 115F every other day in the tropics relatively speaking, i mean if we pasted that chart to our frontal lobes.
Thanks for the laugh Leif, the anomaly on that graph may as well be a flat line and the error bars would cover the chart top to bottom!
If my graph inspired laughter then it was not contrived in vain.
Soon, the shield may be clean.
http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_HMIBC.jpg
It has been interesting to read this blog and the characters who comment here. Thank you all. Most of you seem to come to the same collusion. That’s its really hard to predict the future. I always wondered how measuring temperature, something that is in constant change, could provide any meaningful conclusions. Than I started thinking about all the things that could affect temperature. Then I started thinking about all the things main stream scientists have been wrong about in the past. Than I think about the gatekeepers as economist Thomas DiLorenzo calls them. Those that seem to be intentionally covering up or misleading others. It appears that poor government social policies is often the common denominator. Yet there continues to be those who think they can socially engineer society. If they would understand that the more ones thinks, the more one realizing how little they know and understand.
Then I started thinking about all the things main stream scientists have been wrong about in the past
Which is vastly less than all the things the crackpots and pseudo-scientists and the like have been [and still are] wrong about.
O sol é um vulcão. Adilson nagamine. Brasil
[The sun is a volcano. Adilson Nagamine. Brazil
?? Are you sure you expected it to translate that way?
Tem certeza de que esperava que traduzir esse caminho? .mod]
Something, not sure what, is really putting the kibosh in El Nino. California is facing dim prospects in the precipitation department. Feb is shaping up to be a bust and now people are whistling past the graveyard uttering “well there can still be a March miracle.” We’ll see about that.
The only question remaining in the global warming debate is how much case we’re going to blow, and how much wealth creation we will forego, to have zero discernible impact upon the climate.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/solar/ has been updated to display the HMI visible light image
instead of the AIA 4500 image shown at the top of this post. The damage to that instrument is severe enough
so that the SDO pages don’t refer to it, though it is still in their daily archives.