Guest essay by Eric Worrall
h/t The Express – The British MET have forecast that large areas of the world will cool over the next 5 years, though they still expect global average temperatures to remain high. Of course, they also still claim that CO2 is in the driving seat.
Spatial patterns suggest enhanced warming over land and at high northern latitudes. There is some indication of continued cool conditions in the Southern Ocean, and of relatively cool conditions in the North Atlantic sub-polar gyre. Uncertainties in the forecast are considerable: for the period 2016-2020 most regions are expected to be warmer than the average of 1981 to 2010, but regional cooling is possible over much of the Southern Ocean and the North Atlantic sub-polar gyre. Differences with our forecast issued last year are expected because the updated forecast has been made with an upgraded version of our model. Nevertheless, both forecasts suggest relatively cool conditions in the Southern Ocean and the North Atlantic sub-polar gyre although the magnitude of the anomalies is smaller in the updated forecast. Further forecasts from other international modelling centres are available from the multi-model decadal forecast exchange.
During the five-year period 2016-2020, global average temperature (see blue shading in Figure 3 below) is expected to remain between 0.28°C and 0.77°C (90% confidence range) above the long-term 1981-2010 mean (0.88°C to 1.37°C relative to pre-industrial conditions represented by the period 1850 to 1900). The warmest individual year in the 160-year Met Office Hadley Centre global temperature record is 2015 with a temperature of 0.44 ± 0.1 °C above the 1981-2010 mean. Averaged over the whole five-year period 2016-2020, global average temperature is expected to be between 0.42°C and 0.67°C above the 1981-2010 mean (1.02°C to 1.27°C relative to pre-industrial conditions).
The forecast is for continued global warming largely driven by continued high levels of greenhouse gases. However, other changes in the climate system, including the largest El Niño since 1997 and longer term shifts in both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), are also contributing. Near record temperatures are predicted for the coming five years, consistent with the Met Office annual global temperature forecast. However, the recent run of consecutive record years is likely to end in 2017 as El Niño declines. The forecast remains towards the mid to upper end of the range simulated by CMIP5 models that have not been initialised with observations (green shading in Figure 3). Barring a large volcanic eruption or a very sudden return to La Niña or negative AMO conditions which could temporarily cool climate, ten year global average warming rates are likely to return to late 20th century levels within the next two years. Nevertheless, the recent slowdown in surface warming is still an active research topic and trends over a longer (15 year) period will take longer to respond. For further discussion on the surface warming slowdown see the Met Office reports on the recent pause in warming and on big changes underway in the climate system.
Read more: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc
The last paragraph is interesting. The MET don’t know what caused the pause. They acknowledge the cooling effects they have identified could be substantial enough to drag down global average temperatures. The MET still think CO2 is driving a dangerously rapid rise in global temperatures, they’re just not sure when the temperatures will actually rise.
The last 3 strong El Nino events were followed by La Nina conditions for 2.5 – 3 years. I see no reason to expect this one to be any different. Given the -PDO, falling AMO and approaching solar minimum over the same period it is not unlikely the cooling during the La Nina period to be stronger than any seen since the 1970s. While we are starting from a much higher base which means it won’t be as cool, the net result will likely take us back to a level not seen since the 1990s.
More naked men squatting around a fire, under a full moon, casting bones and muttering “booga booga, CO2 booga. Amazing that so many would give it any heed. GK
The Met Office comments are full of commendable compromise which suggests a greater level of honesty and doubt than the IPCC would contemplate.
It’s political aether theory…..with public funding.
In the twenty-odd years that I’ve been playing attention to this entire AGW debacle, I’ve arrived at an axiom: it’s difficult to argue with someone who is working backwards from a conclusion and using double-talk to get there.
Colder? Is that why they lost their contract with the BBC?
Colder as in declining AMO? And how do you get warming in the high northern latitudes with a declining AMO?
An old style country doctor was preferred for delivering babies in his small town because of his success in predicting the gender of the child. He would tell to Mum-to-be that she would have a girl (or boy, for another) and that for the record, he would write his prediction on his calendar at the due date.
In the 50% of cases when the birth showed him right, his reputation advanced. When a new Mum said he was wrong, he would show her his calendar record, which always agreed with his forecast. 100%.
Of course, he would tell the Mum-to-be one gender and write the opposite on his calendar.
There are no rules that prevent this technique in any type of forecasting.
Big problem a) Major la Nina brewing according to Scripps and Jamstec, and reality. Major warming around Australia 1st sign. b) Decadol shifts in oceans similar to late 1950s already on way. Current enso similar to 57-58.. Flip in AMO lurking also.
They know darn well where this is going after this el nino
Global warming is real, but it isn’t happening. But we should be careful and not relax our vigilance,. Even a thousand years of global cooling does not mean that global warming is not somewhere, happening.
I’m pretty sure I could do this for a lot less money and still make a tidy living for myself an some friends.