Quartz: Fix the Climate, or be Overwhelmed by African Climate Migrants

Crew members assigned to the US Navy (USN) Cyclone Class Coastal Defense Ship USS FIREBOLT (PC 10) rescue refugees from Somalia after their boat, a fishing Dowel, capsized somewhere out in the Indian Ocean (IOC). The FIREBOLT is currently providing Maritime Security Operations (MSO) in support of Operation ENDURING FREEDOM, Public Domain Image, source Wikimedia.
Crew members assigned to the US Navy (USN) Cyclone Class Coastal Defense Ship USS FIREBOLT (PC 10) rescue refugees from Somalia after their boat, a fishing Dowel, capsized somewhere out in the Indian Ocean (IOC). The FIREBOLT is currently providing Maritime Security Operations (MSO) in support of Operation ENDURING FREEDOM, Public Domain Image, source Wikimedia.

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

According to Quartz, if we don’t address the climate “issue”, everyone in Africa will jump on a boat and set up camp on our front lawns.

The climate-change refugee crisis is only just beginning

The Amhara Plateau is no one’s idea of a gloomy landscape. Rich fields blossom as far as the eye can see; bountiful rivers zigzag through the region’s rolling hills. It isn’t hard to see why local Orthodox Christians believe the Ark of the Covenant was floated down the Nile from Egypt and ended up here. Nor why desert raiders continually stormed in off the nearby Sahara for hundreds of years.

But to those who farm the fertile reaches of Western Ethiopia, their home environment is growing a good deal less enticing by the day.

Erratic temperatures and rains, which culminated last year in the total failure of the belg, the short rainy season, have struck locals hard. In a country still scarred by the deadly famines of the 1980s and 90s, reduced crop yields are panicking villagers, almost all of whom rely on agriculture for their livelihoods.

There’s plenty of evidence that migration in sub-Saharan Africa is partly due to extreme weather.

“The rains are very weak and in winter the cold is like nothing I’ve seen before,” said Barakat Daniel, gesturing at a mostly empty trench he uses to irrigate his teff crop on a muddy hillock just outside Bahir Dar. “It’s a hard life.”

For some ambitious young men, conditions have long since crumbled to intolerable levels. They’ve tired of tilling land that’s become harder to farm as older farmers sub-divide their already small holdings into miniature plots for their many children. With population growth overwhelming meager services at the same time as intense weather plagues farmland, more and more people from the region appear to be following the example of refugees from violence-afflicted parts of Africa, and making a break for Europe.

Read more: http://qz.com/605609/the-climate-change-refugee-crisis-is-only-just-beginning/

There are plenty of things wrong with African countries. Anthropogenic CO2 isn’t one of these problems.

According to the Australian CSIRO, according to NASA, the world is greening, thanks to CO2 fertilisation.

Extra CO2 improves plant growth rates, and resistance to drought. So whatever problems these unfortunate people are facing, to date at least, anthropogenic CO2 has incontrovertibly improved the availability of fodder, and boosted food crop yields.

I think it is disgusting that Quartz would attempt to play what is in my opinion a thinly veiled racist narrative, based on what I believe to be a falsehood about the effect of CO2 on arid regions of Africa, to try to get people interested in the climate issue.

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LewSkannen
February 1, 2016 1:43 am

Here is some free advice:
Whatever the climate does the Africans are going to head to Europe. Their population has quadrupled over the past thirty years and their political and social systems do not provide for the aspirations of the average African.
Europe is very close and very tempting and unless Europe grows some C.O.Jones pretty quickly there are sunk.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  LewSkannen
February 1, 2016 2:04 am

Too late. These migrants, typically, have nothing to lose so they risk it all, including their lives. The real big issue is false expectations. When African migrants arrive in the EU zone they truly believe the streets are paved with gold. When my former wife arrived in Australia from Ethiopia she was stunned to discover poor people, poverty and people living rough.

February 1, 2016 2:07 am

If dangerously insane Frau Merkel doesn’t do something – and I don’t mean reducing carbon dioxide emissions – and do it quickly to stop the Hieronymus Bosch-esque nightmare she has set loose on Germany, and the rest of Europe along with it, she will be set fair to easily wipe the floor with poor Adolf for the title of most hated German ever.

mark
Reply to  cephus0
February 1, 2016 2:23 am

Well, maybe she will be the Chamberlain, and the one after her will be the Hitler…

February 1, 2016 2:15 am

Until there is an environment where peaceful and permanent settlement can be maintained leading to less expenditure on armaments; until tyrants and demigods can put aside their rapaciousness, then Africa will never be good example of anything. I do find it rather incendiary, the idea that Africans are somehow naive lesser beings that need the ministrations of liberal philosophy to maintain. Perhaps statehood itself is is not advisable for the Continent as a whole? South Africa’s rush to independence only produced instability and although the reasons for the change were commendable the sudden digression led to dissonances which are all too evident today. Perhaps the last thing you wanted to was to hand the country to nationalists who, but for one man, could have reeked havoc.
It seems that tribal Africa was far more resourceful and sustainable than imitations of western style democracy that pertain today. In governance, sustainability and longevity the tribal system sustained those self-same people, had a relationship between availability of sustenance and population by the obvious obvious constraints. The contrivances of the state are not applicable to all people and accession to mineral wealth has been a temptation too far for many, displacing the incumbents and empowering the superficial. Too much of the tone of joining with Africans sounds like juvenilia. There is no sound so egregious as the baby talk that western interlocutors use to engage with Africans,embarrassing baby talk and demeaning giggly banter.
Is Africa to be an agrarian civilisation that profits in terms of the limitations of its production or an industrial society that cannot be maintained by the lands of that continent in their current condition? It seems that we have had over a century of imposition of the latter model and been bewildered by the outcome that we as much as any other have contrived. Whatever the weather, putting a plough into feeble soil can only cause that earth to take to the air to no one’s benefit. The natural vegetation of Africa tells the story of African climate quite succinctly. Perhaps the Baobab should be the symbol of the place? Telling a tale of feast and famine?

Malcolm Chapman
February 1, 2016 3:23 am

Malcolm:
Interesting themes. But it should be ‘wreak havoc’. Or perhaps, since the two words share an etymology, ‘wreck’.

Andrew
February 1, 2016 3:26 am

Sorry, Ethiopians are leaving because of climate change because it’s suffering unprecedented cold??
Incidentally, this winter (ahead of Paris) Addis Ababa was running 20C above trend. It was hotter than Riyadh’s summer. In mid winter. At 10,000 ft elevation. I was watching a big red blob on the temp map and the online weather reports.
In fact one especially hot night implausibly had a minimum mid winter temp that was higher than any daytime summer record.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Andrew
February 1, 2016 4:15 am

I was in Addis in the middle of their summer in 2006 and 2007 and was praised for how I handled the heat. It was only 22c, maybe 26c max. When I explained that Addis is at a high altitude and Sydney, Australia where I live is at sea level, we get 40c+ days in summer out west where I live my friends, and my then wife, almost fainted. Jan 1st 2006, Ashfield, 47c, but only 27% humidity. Sheesh hot yes, but dry. Try Sydney at 27c and 90%+ humidity. Find a Westfield’s mall!

Reply to  Patrick MJD
February 1, 2016 10:09 am

Patrick MJD – I think humans are highly adaptable. When I used to travel to Addis in November and December for project inspections, the locals would be walking around in coats while I, thinking how warm it was compared to Canada, was walking around in shirt sleeves. But then, I have experienced the same thing down in southern California – sitting outside sunning shirtless at 70 degrees F with the locals walking by in jackets and hats staring and asking if I was from Canada cause only the Canadians considered 70 degrees warm. Down in Nevada, I have often ridden horses in shirt sleeves with my American cousins riding with winter wear. I suspect even thin folks develop an extra layer of fat up here in the Great White North.
Well, gotta go put my snow suit on and go feed my animals.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Patrick MJD
February 2, 2016 12:29 am

I always received a warm welcome when in Addis.

Jack
February 1, 2016 3:30 am

In my opinion the war between muslims and non muslims is the problem n°1 in Middle East, Africa and elsewhere, even in the West countries.This war is fueled by the islamic countries with the oil’s money.
The current migrants invasion is part of this plot against Europe and the US

Reply to  Jack
February 1, 2016 4:49 am

Whether it is thought out or as a result of the conflict, the result is the same. The people leaving are bringing their problems with them. All those Syrians are bringing their customs and laws with them. Does anyone remember these people have honor killings? Or oh, you’re wearing blue jeans, you need to get killed. Or you know a party is an affront to their religion. As if place matters. People matter and not the place.
My family lived in a city in the eastern US for over 200 years. It is now a slum. It isn’t the place, it’s the people who came in. They murder, rape, mug, steal, intimidate, and every other type of crime, but oh if only we lived in the suburbs. In 2 years the high school went from one of the top ten in the country to a special needs.
Some people with an agenda can’t destroy this country fast enough. (or Europe)

Reply to  rishrac
February 1, 2016 11:01 am

rishrac: I am much more optimistic about the future.
The company I worked at for 30 years had many employees from all parts of the world. Many engineers were from Iran. One of our companies did work in Iran for many years. The issue is not the general population, who are by and large, very good people, not much different from you and I. The problem, both in their country, Iran, and OURS, is the extremists/fundamentalists who refuse to adapt.
I have worked with good people from all over the world. The murderers, muggers, rapers, thieves and every other sort of criminal exist in every society including ours. Poverty and certain environments, social problems and a drowning level of acceptance of futility leads to these problems.
Now, I am no socialist, quite the opposite. I worked in an employee owned company for most of my professional career and some of my own little enterprises. I hate government interference while recognizing the necessity of some controls due to those who will push the rules envelopes to the limit.
On the other hand, some of the problems you refer to are a result of the current “Social Awareness” of western governments in particular. But governments don’t follow through so we end up with a lot of people stuck in a social cycle of poverty and crime with no hope of breaking out.
I don’t know the solution, but I do think we are the architects of the problem.
It will get worse.
I used to love reading Isaac Asimov and Robert Heinlein. They believed strongly in individual freedom and self-reliance but their stories often spoke of the necessity of human co-operation and social conscience – even down to the laws of robotics and artificial intelligence.
These are issues of today. Some scientists and large corporations are speaking out against the development of artificial intelligence. They suggest we could have working artificial intelligence by 2040. They say if it is not controlled, it could eventually displace humans as unnecessary and harmful to their independence and well being. Now that is an interesting parallel.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/artificial-intelligence-human-brain-to-merge-in-2030s-says-futurist-kurzweil-1.3100124
Japan has recently developed and intelligent robot to pick cabbages, strawberries and other crops.
http://food.ndtv.com/food-drinks/japan-robot-can-pick-strawberry-fields-forever-for-farmer-694037
http://punditfromanotherplanet.com/2016/01/28/japan-inc-worlds-first-robot-run-farm-will-harvest-30000-heads-of-lettuce-daily/
http://web-japan.org/trends/09_sci-tech/sci091210.html
And inn Boston, MA:
https://www.harvestai.com/technology
Think of the displaced workers on corporate farms. At some point, we can see robots doing many tasks that humans do. Will we not need to provide “social services” to all those displaced workers? It has already started though it may be 50 years or more from now before it becomes a major issue, but as this new mechanical revolution proceeds, not everyone will be retrained to repair robots. People will not even be required to build them as it should become possible to have robotic factories. It will be a while. But think about the social implications. It will be be much bigger than it is now. Under this scenario, we will need a larger social network. I am fairly right of centre politically. I won’t be around to see this social experiment, but I do think a greater level of socialism/capitalism will evolve if this kind of development does occur.
Time for those of you who will still be around in 30 years to start thinking about the transition. Unless of course we regress into fundamentalism and abandon technology … which I strongly doubt.

Reply to  Wayne Delbeke
February 1, 2016 4:51 pm

Every major city in the US has experienced what I have experienced. There are soo many positions in the world where people work 30 years for the same company. Not.
The overall agenda is just I said they are. They’d whack your head off just for sport.

Reply to  Wayne Delbeke
February 2, 2016 8:33 pm

Speaking of the wonderful Iranians. I went to school with them before the revolution. They fully supported Ayatollah. To bad they were there in advanced calculus … I wouldn’t be worried if they could develop the bomb or not. There’s a difference between being a good mathematician and a brilliant one. It’s easy to copy, orders larger to invent.
We stop having children, we stop being a nation. Gradual change is one thing, to do so in a generation is suicide.
I am trying to preserve the western tradition, you sir are openly trying to destroy it. Name me an Islamic state that is free and democratic? Which Islamic state is taking in their Muslims brothers? On these boats to Europe, who gets killed? Do you really think they are going to honor the Bill of Rights? They won’t even read them.

Reply to  rishrac
February 1, 2016 9:29 pm

Well Rishrac, if you own a large hunk of the company (employee owned, remember.), many people stay 30 years or more. We had some folks with 50 years, second generation of a company that was started in 1946 and one of the larger employee owned companies in Canada with several awards for being a great place to work and still going strong.
The welfare/ghetto cycle is a western issue that has persisted for ages and it exists in many other cultures in other forms. To blame it solely in immigration is un thinking. We are ALL immigrants in the Western Hemisphere, some for 10,000 years and some for 10,000 seconds. Who has adapted best to these lands? I think that is in the eye of the beholder and cultural bias. But that is just me. It’s what happens when you live and work in diverse cultures. Tolerance is a gift or a burden depending on your perspective.

Reply to  Wayne Delbeke
February 2, 2016 8:13 pm

I’m the only one that has to be politically correct in respect to everybody else. Meanwhile, there’s a bunch of people who burn and march over the American Flag. Those are the people the western world is inviting in with open arms. They place their spiritual values as being superior to mine. They are not coming here to adopt being American, they are coming here to take over. They have no history. We do. Everything we do is a waste of time. Down to playing chess.

Reply to  Jack
February 1, 2016 5:28 am

A stupid Europe and US.

Patrick MJD
February 1, 2016 4:23 am

Ethiopians are leaving Ethiopia because there is little to no work there with massive increases to the costs of living (Teff for instance). Many are women who, in effect, be come slaves (Sometimes sexual slaves, difficult to prove). I know a relative, of my former Ethiopian wife, when to the Middle East as a house maid. Now I don’t know if she was abused sexually, what I do know is she was abused by the male member of the household in terms of beatings and demands. This PoS actually took her passport away from her. Anyway, after many calls I managed to get his wife and suggested that if they did not return her passport and allow her to leave, I would get authorities involved and even travel there to get the issue resolved. Two weeks later, my wife’s relative was reunited with her passport and returned to Ethiopia. Sad thing is, she wants(ed) to go back. Good thing is, we got her out!

February 1, 2016 4:26 am

Let’s see, 2 scenarios:
1) Boko Harum burns down my village and kills my family = I’m staying her in Africa.
2) Spring comes Early and fall comes late. = So I’m going to drift to the New World on a raft.
Anyone who thinks number 2 will ever be true is a blithering Id1ot. (IMHO)

Tom Halla
February 1, 2016 5:25 am

I do remember the pitiful starving Ethiopian children thirty years ago, when the real issue was land redistribution by the Mengistu regime. Reads like the same sort of ignorant blather.

February 1, 2016 5:26 am

It hasn’t warmed at all in tropical Africa (and the CAGW theory even says so – the bulk of the heating has taken place in the Arctic. What happened to that part of the theory? I was in Lagos Nigeria in the mid 60s and it was monotonously the same temperature when I returned about 15 years ago. And isn’t the Sahel regreening? WUWT? The whole business of Africans shipping to Europe is a variant of ‘human trafficking’ only Africans are paying to be shipped these days because of a totally screwed up open door policy in the tattered remains of Europe.

Reply to  Gary Pearse
February 1, 2016 9:19 am

Gary, I agree. From what I recall, the global warming from CO2 models project the warming at higher latitudes and not in the tropics. The premise of this article is not even supported by the vaunted but faulty models. The problems in Africa are mainly political and from birth rates that are still too high to be supported by the local economies.

Bernie Roseke
February 1, 2016 7:07 am

“In a country still scarred by the deadly famines of the 1980s and 90s…”
He just has no idea what he’s writing.

gringojay
February 1, 2016 8:33 am

I knew Ethiopia in 1970 when Selassie was still living & revered ; his son was hated & feared so the communists were getting their foothold. In 2010 USA aid there was $533 million, rising to $707 million in 2012.
A leaked State Department cable stated: “: Ethiopia does not…have…public disclosure of…expenditures…no independent auditors…national budget does not include over 100 state owned enerprises or the over 700 “endowment” companies owned by the ruling political party.”
Quote from pg.133 of ( 2015) book “Clinton Cash”, chapter titled”Warlord Economics”. In 2007 $20 million was pledged to Clinton Foundation by Amoudi who (among other benefits with dictator Zenawi, who died 2012) had his company “SaudiStar” “…given leases on tens of thousands of acres of Ethiopian land….”
Pages 128- 134 deal with Ethiopia & points out (pg132) that “…the government restrIcted Western food aid in certain regions for political reasons….” Aparently (pg130) “Zenawi’s policies pushed localpeople off their lands, decimated forests, and end encroached on game reserves….”
In 2009 when HR Clinton Secretaryof State another Amoudi’s “AlmedaTextiles” got loan guarantees when USAI “brokered a long term contract…to import textiles into the Unites States”. In 2012 she granted waiver over lack of Ethiopia’s “fiscal transparency” required by Dept. of State,Foreign Operations Related Programs Appropriation Act.

Reply to  gringojay
February 1, 2016 12:31 pm

+100

DDP
February 1, 2016 9:15 am

Immigrants from Africa have been economic, absolutely nothing to do with the climate. Force feed a nation with handouts for generations rather than help develop their economy and see what happens. It comes as no shock to see that less than 25% of Ethiopia is connected to the grid, and has roughly 2.3GW installed capacity (6% renewables, 8% geothermal, 86% hydroelectric) for 80 million people.

DDP
Reply to  DDP
February 1, 2016 9:17 am

Scratch that, it’s 2.3GW installed capacity for 94 million people. It worse than we thought! Pfft…

Patrick MJD
Reply to  DDP
February 2, 2016 12:17 am

When my then wife and I drove out to the “whispering falls” 75% of the water that used to flow over the falls was diverted to a hydro plant. What I found contrasting was that all the huts near the falls had shiny new power meters. This was rural Ethiopia. Addis regularly had power outages, but no-one really cared as we all sat about drinking whiskey.

Monna Manhas
February 1, 2016 10:29 am

To be honest, I think they still don’t really care. It’s just the “cause of the month”.

MarkW
February 1, 2016 11:10 am

What is it about liberals that their almost universally believe that minorities are incapable of taking care of themselves, and must have numerous govt programs in order to survive?

Michael Wood
Reply to  MarkW
February 1, 2016 11:29 am

Uhh, just don’t let them in. Simple.

Reply to  Michael Wood
February 1, 2016 12:57 pm

If they don’t let them in, they’ll never win another election, or be able to portray themselves as humanitarians, even though they truly are not.

Reply to  MarkW
February 2, 2016 11:20 am

To a liberal there are three types of Humans.
1) The Government Class
2) The Working Class.
3) The Victim Class

andrew dickens
February 1, 2016 12:01 pm

1984 Ethiopian famine: population of Ethiopia 34 million
present population of Ethiopia: 100 million
2050 population of Ethiopia (UN estimate) 280 million
But they still keep telling us that climate change is the problem.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  andrew dickens
February 1, 2016 2:45 pm

My former wife lived through that ’84 famine.

Joel Snider
February 1, 2016 12:27 pm

In simple terms, doesn’t more greenhouse gases by definition mean LESS arid?

Bruce Cobb
February 1, 2016 12:28 pm

By 2010, climate numpties predicted there would be 50 million “climate refugees”. Problem is, none materialized, and here we are 6 years later, with presumably way more carbonostrophic global warm/climate change/chaos/extreme weather, and still no “climate refugee” number 1. What happened?

tadchem
February 1, 2016 1:27 pm

My mother was a proofreader, and I grew up with a bit of a knack for spotting errors.
So: “the Ark of the Covenant was floated down the Nile from Egypt and ended up here” – UPSTREAM?!

February 1, 2016 1:59 pm

Don’t make me call someone a “snowcialist”
Cheers,
Gudolpops

Reply to  gudolpops
February 1, 2016 2:03 pm

Would be better if I had posted to Dr. Ball’s article….

Brandon Gates
February 1, 2016 5:29 pm

Eric Worrall,

There are plenty of things wrong with African countries. Anthropogenic CO2 isn’t one of these problems.

How nice of you to speak on their behalf.

According to the Australian CSIRO, according to NASA, the world is greening, thanks to CO2 fertilisation.

What do CSIRO and NASA have to say about sub-Saharan Africa? Do you believe what CSIRO and NASA generally have to say about CO2-induced global warming? Specific to sub-Saharan Africa?
Have you taken into account which species most benefit from CO2 fertilization? Is the rate of anthropogenic greening due to CO2 greater than the rate of anthropogenic deforestation? Do food crop species on balance do better than noxious weed species?

Extra CO2 improves plant growth rates, and resistance to drought.

No amount of additional CO2 makes up for near complete lack of water, which is what happens during extended periods of drought. It also does nothing for thirsty livestock, or thirsty humans … both of which ALSO depend on the food crops which aren’t growing for lack of water.

So whatever problems these unfortunate people are facing, to date at least, anthropogenic CO2 has incontrovertibly improved the availability of fodder, and boosted food crop yields.

Ahh, “to date at least”. Ok fine. Let’s just wait until it’s “incontrovertibly” clear that anthropogenic CO2’s alleged present net-benefits have clearly tipped to the net-negative side of the ledger for sub-Saharan Africans. What are the indicators for this? How much of the rest of the world needs to de-green? What multiple of the present rate of starvation, thirst and heat-stress deaths (and migration away therefrom) is the threshold for acting?
What’s the proposed action at the point where it’s “incontrovertibly” clear to you that CO2 is part of problem? Suck it back out of the atmosphere and put it somewhere? Does “adaptation” include methods for reconstituting the people who gave up their lives in the name of your science of “incontrovertible” certainty?
You’ve not “incontrovertibly” demonstrated a thing here except a dubious ability to declare, with a straight face, that “CO2 is plant food” is absolute proof that whatever is going on in sub-Saharan Africa cannot possibly be attributed in part to its purported warming influence.

I think it is disgusting that Quartz would attempt to play what is in my opinion a thinly veiled racist narrative, based on what I believe to be a falsehood about the effect of CO2 on arid regions of Africa, to try to get people interested in the climate issue.

That’s got to be one of the most unintentionally ironic things I’ve read on these pages in a while. A bit like the double-dog dare (or the double-down as the case may be), I think you might have just invented the double-dog whistle. And oh look … I’ve just trebled it.

Patrick MJD
February 2, 2016 1:12 am

I don’t think it’s a case of not caring. It’s more a case of being impotent and not being able to do a single thing about it. BUT, most people fall for the BS in the media and the media just love climate change alarmism. So the gloves are off on facts and truth, any rubbish will do. It sells!