Poetry, by Davis Swan (h/t to Dr. Judith Curry)
T’was the night before Christmas and all through the town
The temperature was dropping, going down, down, down, down
The weatherman said that a front was to blame
A high pressure ridge from Alaska he claimed
It sat like a lump on the hard prairie stubble
Refusing to budge, clearly looking for trouble
On the map it was grinning, toothy and blue
From Montana through Texas to the Long Island zoo
And under that dome of slow falling air
Grew a problem so nasty it hardly seemed fair
For the flags hung like rags across the mid-west
Not a whisper of wind to wake them from rest
Outside of the town the turbines stopped spinning
On the weatherman’s map the cold front kept grinning
At the company office the manager frowned
As the power from the wind farms kept going down
A coal-fired plant was called and called fast
They’d always been there in a pinch in the past
We can’t help you out” was the somber reply
Our boilers have been cold since the 4th of July
It will take us all night with a talented crew
To get things in order and working like new
The manager hung up the phone with a sigh
He had one last option he knew he could try
He called up the plant that was fired by gas
“Can you give us more power?” the foreman was asked
“I would if I could but the answer is ‘No’
We’re going full out – any more and she’ll blow!”
So he hung up again – no more numbers to call
All attention was fixed on the instrument wall
The manager watched as the meter hit zero
He knew the next day he would not be a hero
The grid creaked and groaned then it finally buckled
It seemed like the weather map grin actually chuckled
And now it spread out like a fast moving fire
The blackout was coming the outlook was dire
In no time at all the breakers were flipping
The wires were sparking, transformers were tripping
One after one the streetlights went out
In the blink of an eye there was clearly no doubt
That this was a night that we all would remember
As the coldest darn night in the darkest December
Now some folks stayed warm by a hearth that was crackling
But for most bitter cold finally made them start packing
And in thousands of homes linemen pulled on their boots
As they headed outdoors trying to turn on the juice
And back to the coal-fired plants went the men
That had kept the lights on since I don’t know just when
They worked through the night and by noon Christmas Day
The dinners were cooking in the usual way
A few short days later the cold front receded
The wind farms spun up, coal no longer was needed
The utility manager decided to go
To visit a plant, maybe stop, say hello
They shared some bad coffee as they sat for a while
Then a grizzled old coal-man spoke up with a smile
“Now I’m a recycler and I love to hug trees
But wind without storage is just a big tease
Here is one thing that I know for a fact
You didn’t quite get it when you called for the MACT”
“My dirty old cold-fired plant had to close
But when it comes down to it everyone knows
My coal-fired plant you can count on to run
No matter what happens with the wind and the sun”
“If you really want power through all kinds of weather
Treat coal with respect – we can work well together”
The manager left but what stuck in his head
Were the words that the grizzled old coal-man had said
Energy storage is something we need
Without it “green power” is useless indeed
We can launch a sleek rocket, land a robot on Mars
We can build hybrid engines to power our cars
A storage solution can surely be found
If we dare to think different, turn our thoughts upside-down
Taleb and Khosla have shown us the way
It’s “Black Swan” ideas that are needed today.
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Merry Christmas Anthony, moderators and contributors. And a happy and much better New Year!
happy Christmas to Anthony, the mods and all who contribute to the fantastic success of WUWT.
may the site go from strength to strength in the New Year.
.
“It’s “Black Swan” ideas that are needed today.”
How’s about this for a Black Swan idea?
https://climatedatablog.wordpress.com/2015/12/21/a-hockey-strick-for-xmass/
Great match to BEST at least!
[snip]
Merry Xmas to all.
Especially Anthony and the long suffering Minions though.
There are one too many ‘downs’ in the second line, for comfortable scansion. Otherwise, nicely done.
Thank you all, and Merry Christmas
I don’t like Nassim Taleb’s black swan concept. I prefer Karl Popper’s black swan example to explain falsifiability. It is more appropriate to explain what is wrong with climate science. CAGW theory is like the “all swans are white” statement and many CAGW supporters are trying to hide the existence of black swans, empirical data that falsifies the CAGW theory.
I have the impression that by naming black swan events to very improbable events, Taleb is trying to sabotage Popper’s falsifiability.
Interesting. From Popper.
“Falsificationism thus strives for questioning, for falsification, of hypotheses instead of proving them”
So ‘deniers’ are all ‘Adherents to Popper’ in fact.
2035 – The Year In Review … posted December 25, 2015 By Paul Homewood
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2015/12/25/2035-the-year-in-review/
This post is a good one and fits in with the post here as it is a fictional (perhaps) look at the whole AGW thing. I think it worth your time to read.
~ Mark
Thanks for the link, Mark. Paul Homewood’s review of 2035 is pure comedy gold for UK denizens and maybe, just maybe, for many non-UK readers too.
It certainly brought plenty of chuckles to this old, grizzled bloke!
yo ho ho and a bottle of rum
thumbs up
merry Christmas hic
Now that the Pope has fronted his Encyclical that has made some scientists uncomfortable (because it disagrees with their views) and has made other scientists uncomfortable (because it agrees with their views) and yet others jubilant (because for them it was never about science, it was only about getting their way)… there will be a ribbon cutting ceremony at the Climate Summit in Paris this week as the final North Pole ‘Cold War’ barrier between science and religion is ceremoniously cut. Crews are standing by to tear down the wall between faith and empirical evidence that has symbolized the oppression of Great Ideas since the late Renaissance.
Santa Claus will preside over the ceremony, holding out a large golden scissors and when the ribbon is cut, “There will not be a soul left alive who can deny his existence!” said Mrs.Claus, whose role in traditional affairs has been confined to baking cookies. But now as her husband tends to his yearly duties, she has shucked the apron and is teaming up with a Silicon Valley PR agency to launch an Internet and Social Media campaign to shine the spotlight on what she calls The Wall Of Science.
“They call it an age of enlightenment, but it has been bad for us,” she lamented. “The average age at which parents tell their children that “Santa doesn’t really exist” has been dropping steadily, and there are even households where young children have always believed that their loving parents are behind it all. These children are being deprived of the wonder that arises from a belief in supernatural forces and miracles, and the essential idea that fountains of free money will flow your way if you elect progressively Socialist governments that tax big business and consolidate world governments. While we cannot easily legislate a belief in Santa Claus, we’ll have to the next best thing — get the United Nations involved in the issue, and prove Santa’s existence by showing him on TV and Facebook.”
The role of the UN is crucial. Santa Claus has long been considered a delegate from the North Pole in ex officio, but now between solstices he will take his new position as head the IMF. “The elves have been a labor problem for over 100 years and heating costs have skyrocketed. We’ve shut the factories and the elves have applied for ‘climate refugee status’ to Europe and the Americas. With IMF funds we will be able to out-source toy production to facilities in low-wage countries. Santa’s bags will now be full UN investment capital, to be distributed to countries who get with the program. And everybody gets a lump of coal this year, in the form of a hefty Carbon Tax.”
But what is this ‘Wall of Science’ Mrs. Claus has taken such a bead on? “It is the wall that divides us, that is all. In a world of unrestricted travel and electronic communication that crosses borders, we were desperately searching for something to tear down. You cannot start a grassroots campaign without tearing something down. Then some nice folks at the Vatican pointed us to the Wall, which they said separated persons who demand empirical evidence to build their positions from those who place faith and opinion foremost, then go looking for talking points to support their views. It had little to do with toys so at first we were skeptical, until they gave us a [wink] and said, you know, those of little faith do not believe in St. Nicholas… and after we heard that, we were all in.”
“As you know,” Mrs. Claus continued, “there has been a crisis in the Catholic Church. But at the same time there has been a breakaway group, the Gaians, whose personification an Earth writhing in pain under the threat of Corporate Man attained crucial ‘faith’ status some time back with the rise of the Algorians, whose scepters were hockey sticks. The Catholic Church has come to the conclusion that if it can draw in the Gaians, the combined numbers can effect real change in the world. Millennials reject symbols of office and velvet costumes, yet they respond well to activist causes, so long as you can wear jeans when pursuing them. Tear down the Wall, they said, and it will all flow together and from the chaos might emerge a new order. So… I suggested to those nice people, you help us and we’ll help you. Let’s divert everyone’s attention to the Santa Claus thing and have him be the one to tear down the Wall Of Science. Those Gaians will be in Church before you know it, because we can take Jesus down from the cross and nail him to a globe!!”
Mrs. Claus admitted that the Vatican elders were shocked by this idea, but she’s confident they’ll come around. But once the Wall Of Science becomes history, what comes next? “Climate is everything, it’s where the money will come from. And once we hinge it all on climate, we have Science Guy on our side.”
So it will all begin in Paris. After the ribbon cutting and demolition, Santa Claus will go into ‘hiding’ and an array of Silicon Valley companies will track his global journey on Christmas Eve. Even NORAD, NOAA and NASA (as part of Obama’s campaign to restore faith) will help dispel the ‘myth’ that Santa Claus does not exist, by showing his position that moves — on a screen! Those who hold on to empirical evidence have always disputed Santa’s trip and have been quick to point out how the various fixes on Santa’s sleigh were shown at different places at different times. But NOAA has come to bat, issuing a series of retroactive data corrections that now place Santa’s sleigh exactly where the other models predicted it to be.
“There is nothing but consensus left now, we think,” a senior source at NOAANASA declared with a wink and a toss of his elf-cap. “We have decreased the weight of data from sleigh positions plotted by satellite, and have weighted Santa fix data taken by ocean vessels so that Santa’s Global Position is where the models predict. For he first time in history, Santa’s sleigh will follow a precise path that is accurate to 0.01 degree, with 97% consensus. By Christmas Morning there will be no Santa Deniers left on Earth.”
Anthony and Mods,
I think you should read “Why “GISTEMP LOTI global mean” is wrong and “HadCRUt3 gl” is right” at https://okulaer.wordpress.com/2015/12/23/why-gistemp-loti-global-mean-is-wrong-and-hadcrut3-gl-is-right/comment-page-1/#comment-646
I think this worthy of a post here. ~ Mark
I agree with you Mark. However I have little say in this, but what I will do is mention this post in my next article since it fits in perfectly. My next article, after Hadcrut4 come in, will be titled:
Can Both GISS and HadCRUT4 be Correct? (Now Includes November Data)
Feel free to comment there as you see fit.
Great. I am looking forward to reading your post.
Use the energy to synthesize gasoil. Oh, wait …. oops.
Take a look at the advancement of the freeze line in Eurasia. The warm east flowing winds that had been crossing past the Caspian Sea before turning north towards the Arctic broke up 24 hours ago, and the deep cold from Siberia has surges westward…http://www.intellicast.com/Global/Temperature/Current.aspx
Note the tiny pocket of warmth east of Moscow that is now trapped by the cold surge. That is how far one finger of the warm flow had advanced eastward up until 24 hours ago.
Now take a look at what has happened since I posted my comment. There has been a substantial temp change in eastern Europe and Scandinavia in the last 2 days. Although I should have also posted this link to make more sense of the picture I wish to show…http://www.weather-forecast.com/static_maps/Arctic/temperature/6
If the pattern persists, then Europe is about to chill down quite a bit. Interesting to see that at the same time this is happening, there has also been a surge of well above average warmth in the Arctic Ocean from surface winds further south in the Atlantic, which have pushed into the Arctic over the last several weeks Is this the pattern that can drive a cold trend in the NH?…http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
Looks like a smiley face to me.
Hey, maybe someone spiked the eggnog.
Been away for our OZ christmas so slow to comment.I being an old engineer have a simple solution to the power storage of windmills. potential energy. Wind mills make good pumps, do not connect wind turbines to the grid, give them their own grid to power water pumps and with the right infrastructure you have your power storage. Hydro is very controllable for peaking power. Getting the infrastructure passed the idiot greens would be the only hurdle.
Wind Energy in Texas has been breaking records of late.
This PDF from Dec. 20, 2015, the latest report from ERCOT available over the holidays reports a records
All Time Record Values as of 12/20/2015 23:59
Record Wind Generation 13,883 MW = about 85% of installed capacity.
@ur momisugly Time 12/20/2015 11:07 (CST?)
Penetration (Percent of Load) at that time: 41.27 %
Record Wind Penetration 44.71 %
Record Wind Penetration Time 12/20/2015 03:05
Wind Generation at Record Wind Penetration 13,057 MW
It broke a record of 13,029 MB set the previous day 12/19/2015 20:45
Summary of Records
13,883 MW on 12/20/2015 11:07
13,029 MW on 12/19/2015 20:45
12,971 MW on 11/25/2015
12,590 MW on 11/16/2015
12,238 MW on 10/22/2015
11,950 MW on 10/21/2015
11,467 MW on 09/13/2015
11,154 MW on 02/19/2015
10,957 MW on 12/25/2014
10,808 MW on 11/28/2014
10,301 MW on 11/02/2014
9,472 MW on 03/26/2014
The record high daily minimum might be 12/12/2015 at about 10,400 MW
(it is typically below 5,000 MW and frequently below 2,000 MW). But they don’t track this record, so it would require more detailed search of the archives.
12/20 was probably a record daily average in the neighborhood of 12,000 MW.
Stephen Rasey
Gosh. So reliable. /sarchasm – That gaping whole between a liberal and the real world
@RACookPE1978
You should know by now I’m no fan of wind. But a true scientist reports data that he sees.
Just like today with a quiet Wind Map at 12/30/2015 19:35 EST, I couldn’t help but look at the ERCOT Current Day chart, the MAXimum was under 2,350 MW for today and yesterday and the minimum was under 1,300 MW at 18:00, a high demand hour.