The hilarious legacy of ‘last chances’ for climate, exposed

As the Paris Climate Talk aka COP21 approaches, we get this familiar cry from The Vatican:

vatican-last-chance-2015

They say it is the ‘last effective opportunity’ to keep global warming to ‘a limit safe for humanity’.

Gosh.

How many times have we heard “last chance for climate” before? I’ve lost count.


 

Bonn 2001

A Global Warming Treaty’s Last Chance. That teetering edifice that is the Kyoto Protocol gets some emergency repair work this week as delegates from 180 countries gather in Bonn to work out problems that threaten to scuttle the deal altogether.
Time Magazine, 16 Jul 2001


 

Montreal 2005

In an open letter to delegates at the Montreal environmental summit, beginning today, campaigner Mark Lynas explains why action on climate change can no longer be stalled.

“I’m scared. For 15 years I’ve watched international progress on climate change get slower and slower, even while the pace of global warming seems to get ever more rapid. With time running out for the global climate, your meeting in Montreal represents a last chance for action.”
The Independent, 28 Nov 2005


 

Bali 2007

World leaders will converge on Bali today for the start of negotiations which experts say could be the last chance to save the Earth from catastrophic climate change. Bali could be the last chance to avoid the worst effect of global warming, said Tony Juniper, executive director of Friends of the Earth.
The New Zealand Herald, 3 Dec 2007


 

Poznan Poland, 2008

The world will “suicide” if it cannot strike a strong climate pact soon, Australian environmental scientist Tim Flannery has warned. Professor Flannery, who is attending a UN climate summit in Poland, expressed dismay at the slow progress.

“Resistance is a suicidal tactic,” the former Australian of the year, scientist and author told reporters in Poland. “This round of negotiations is likely to be our last chance as a species to deal with the problem.”
The Age, 9 Dec 2008

Humanity is approaching the last chance to prevent catastrophic climate change, according to WWF’s analysis of the latest climate science.The warning comes during UN climate talks in Poznan, Poland.

“Governments in Poznan must agree to peak and decline global emissions well before 2020 to give people reasonable hope that global warming can still be kept within limits that prevent the worst,” said Kim Carstensen, leader of WWF’s global climate initiative.
WWF, “Poznan provides last chance to curb climate change” 5 Dec 2008

 


Copenhagen 2009  (the real last chance, we really mean it this time!)

The world faces a final opportunity to agree an adequate global response to climate change at a U.N.-led meeting in Copenhagen in December, the European Union’s environment chief said on Friday.

It is now 12 years since Kyoto was created. This makes Copenhagen the world’s last chance to stop climate change before it passes the point of no return, European Union Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas told a climate conference in Budapest on Friday.
Reuters, Feb 27 2009

Ban Ki-moon, the United Nations Secretary-General, has warned of “catastrophic consequences” unless a new international agreement on greenhouse gas emissions is reached.

Climate change is “simply the greatest collective challenge we face as a human family”, Mr Ban said in a speech on Monday in Seoul. He urged international leaders to reach a deal to limit their countries’ carbon emissions at the UN climate conference in Copenhagen in December.
The Telegraph, 10 Aug 2009

“No one said the road to Copenhagen would be easy. But the agreement we all hope to reach in Copenhagen next year represents the last chance to bring climate change under control before it is too late. There is progress, but we need to step up the pace. With resolve, cooperation and imagination, we can conclude an agreement at the end of next year, delivering the ambitious global action that is needed.”
Speech by Stavros Dimas, European Commissioner responsible for environment at a Climate Change Conference, 31 October 2008, Prague


The Copenhagen summit is the world’s last chance to save the planet from “catastrophic” global warming, according to a major study led by Lord Stern of Brentford, the country’s leading authority on climate change.

Without an international agreement to limit global warming, temperatures are likely to rise by 9F (5C) by the end of the century – triggering mass migration, warfare and world hunger, according to the report.
The Telegraph, 2 Dec 2009


 

Cancun 2010

A sense of foreboding is one of the few points of general agreement among the 15,000 participants congregating for the next two weeks on this long thin strip of land, marooned between a wide lagoon and the Caribbean Sea. Jairem Ramesh, the Indian environment minister, sees it as the “last chance” for climate change talks to succeed; Connie Hedegaard, the EU’s climate chief, believes a disappointing outcome would “put the whole process in danger”.
The Telegraph (UK), 29 Nov 2010


 

Durban 2011

Rev. Dr. Olav Fyske Tveit, who leads the World Council of Churches, says the upcoming climate conference in South Africa is mankind’s ‘last opportunity’ to address climate change. This week the World Council of Churches general secretary, Reverend Dr Olav Fykse Tveit, called the United Nations UNFCCC COP 17 meeting a “last opportunity for the international community to be responsible in addressing climate change”, and called on the meeting to “act now for climate justice.”
Spero News, 27 Nov 2011

Durban climate change meeting is “the last chance”. Attended by over 200 countries, this week’s major UN conference has been described by many experts as humanity’s last chance to avert the disastrous effects of climate change.

Together with around 20 000 delegates from nearly 200 countries, Ferrial Adam, the climate change and energy campaigner for Greenpeace Africa, will be attending the 17th Conference of the Parties (COP17) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which gets under way in Durban in the next two weeks, towards negotiating a new climate regime.
UCANews, 28 Nov 2011


 

Doha 2012

Tomorrow: the earth’s last chance with climate change? Tomorrow, the whole world talks about irreversible global warming as this year’s international climate change summit begins. Participating are 195 countries (almost all of the United Nations).

There are two concurrent meetings: the 8th Conference of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol; and the 18th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. They will take place from Monday, November 26, 2012 to Friday, December 7, 2012 at the Qatar National Convention Centre in Doha, Qatar.
The Examiner, 25 Nov 2012


 

Warsaw 2013

Is the Warsaw Climate Change Conference a last-chance summit? The Warsaw Climate Change Conference opened on Monday 11th November. After the 2012 failure of Doha, this summit could represent a turning point in the fight against global warming.

“Global greenhouse gas emissions need to peak this decade, and get to zero net emissions by the second half of this century,” announced Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC in a press release dated 8th November. “We have the money and technology, the knowledge and the new economic models to get the job done in time,” she confirmed before describing the next two years as “a critical period to act faster on climate.”
Sustainable Mobility, 14 Nov 2013


 

Lima 2014

Last chance: Change needed for climate negotiations in Lima 2014. WWF issued the following statement today from Samantha Smith, Leader of WWF’s Global Climate and Energy Initiative, as the UN climate talks drew to a conclusion:

“A repeat performance next year would be disastrous, not just for the progress of these negotiations, but more importantly for vulnerable communities everywhere and the natural world on which we all depend…By the time we get to next year’s meeting in Lima, we urgently need to have political will, real commitments, and a clear path to a comprehensive and fair agreement in Paris 2015, where a new global agreement on climate change has to be signed.”
WWF Global, 23 Nov 2013


 

Paris 2015

Scientists are calling on world leaders to sign up to an eight-point plan of action at landmark talks in Paris. The key element is the goal to limit global warming to below 2C by moving to zero carbon emissions by 2050. The UN meeting in December is “the last chance” to avert dangerous climate change, according to the Earth League.
BBC News 22 Apr 2015


 

 

If Paris doesn’t work out, I’m sure there will be another “last chance” coming to a destination city very soon.

h/t to Bishop Hill and to the website climatechangepredictions.org who rounded up this list.

 

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97 thoughts on “The hilarious legacy of ‘last chances’ for climate, exposed

  1. I remember back in the 1990s hearing that we had already reached a tipping point. The Northern Tundra was now melting and would release greenhouse gasses that would cause runaway global warming. 20 years later, we still have yet another last chance.

  2. I missed the boat when I became an IT nerd instead of a climate scientist. Who knew there would be so many travel opportunities in that field?

  3. Gore’s we have ten years to stop global warming was from a presentation by James Hansen claiming after 2015 it would be too late.

  4. I sense a tipping point coming when the MSM decides it can sell more news by “outing” failed Climate Change hysteria for what it really is.

    • That’s when the climate pseudo-scientists will find the downside of selling your integrity for prestige and profit. The political class will claim they were deluded by these scientists and the ‘scientists’ will be thrown to the media for chastising and perhaps to the law for investigation for fraud. And of course, in line with modern practices, they will have to be ‘punished’.
      Then the ‘scientists’ might realise they were just being used, like everyone else in politics.
      Should be interesting.

      • are you kidding??? This is WWAAAAYYYYY too profitable for the political class to do anything but give the scientists their next cue. Sooner than later we will be fighting the next ice age. And the only solution will be to give all our money to the same people we’re giving it to now to fight the warming.

  5. Yeah, Cancun was a really major last chance. Up until the weather turned unseasonably cool and rainy, and all of the important people hopped back in their private jets and went home early, leaving the second-rank assistants to sit around and do nothing important…

  6. If you have been a “Climate Scientist” since 2001 , It looks as if you will have undertaken a really nice world tour of exotic places. Nice perk for the saviours of the world.

  7. This is THEIR last chance, surely? Anyone with a brain and access to the internet is either rolling in the aisles at their antics, or rolling their eyes. Something’s gotta give, soon.

  8. And if the last chance of Paris (COP21) falls flat, there’s always COP22 in Marrakech, Morocco, in November 2016 … the gullible have such short attention spans.

  9. What an utter waste of money. The only beneficiaries of the COP21 meeting are Parisian businesses.

  10. How does that saying go….”Better to keep quiet and only be thought of as a fool rather than to open your mouth and remove all doubt”.

    Have to admit I have foolishly opened my own mouth at times.

  11. The following is a quote by Fred Thompson, particularly appropriate with his passing today.

    “Global warming experts are saying that sea levels could rise 20 feet. Apparently their strategy for surviving this is to stand on top of a pile of government research grant money.”

    Fred was a frequent voice of reason in a city filled with unreasonable people.

  12. Always the “Last Chance”. But then there are “Last Chance” saloons all over the continent. Maybe no one remembers it was their last chance after downing a few. I am sure the wine consumption at COP21 with be prodigious.

    On the other hand, I just read a bit of the “Draft” agreement for COP21. Although it contains some very scary items about paying damages by countries that don’t comply with damages to be assessed by an “International Climate Tribunal”, they damages are to be based on “human caused climate change”.

    So – “Human Caused Climate Change”. First, show me how you would quantify the human portion. Second, show me that it is a negative affect and not a positive effect. Someone point me to papers that quantify the human effect and demonstrate that the benefits don’t outweigh the costs.

    If you can’t do that, how can you possibly assess damages? Well, I suppose if you are a Troika (connotative inference intended).

    http://www.cfact.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/UNFCCC-Draft-agreement-10-23-15.pdf?utm_source=CFACT+Updates&utm_campaign=8400b0966d-judicial_UN_Tribunal_of_Climate_Justice_10_29_2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_a28eaedb56-8400b0966d-269656441

    • “Someone point me to papers that quantify the human effect and demonstrate that the benefits don’t outweigh the costs.”

      Easy peasy. Just give me a big swag of grant money and I will fudge some up quick smart. Really, I thought it was obvious. One hundred billion in government money can’t possibly be wrong.

  13. Is there a full delegate list for COP21? I am just curious – but it would be nice to have a convenient list of known pigs and associated tax troughers just in case the revolution does ever materialise! Seriously though, these people do need to be recorded for posterity. I would hate for the majority of the ‘AGW/climate regime’ to end up worming their way out of their ‘scientific crimes’ or pseudoscience misdemeanors, should the whole scam eventually unfold!

  14. Don’t be fooled by those other “last chances”. This is the real “last chance”. My uncle Olaf made $170,000 US on a $13milllion dollar grant to study a new way of counting sunspots so it doesn’t look like their numbers have been declining these last two solar cycles. My friend Larry made hundreds of thousands just jiggling some old NOAA surface temp data around. You can too. Its easy, governments pay big money for this and there’s plenty for everyone! Contact me at http://www.hidethedecline for all the details.

    • Would my luck be better getting a cushy job working for “climate change” or winning the Publishing Clearing House Sweepstake? They’re offering $10,000 a week for LIFE!

  15. Simply replace “last” with “latest” and all statements become true. So Paris is not the last, only the latest opportunity to gather at some posh location and cry wolf yet again.

    • Jason Bradstreet commented: “….but this time Obama seems to be willing to bet the farm acquiring an agreement of some sorts….”

      All he can do is make promises that he cannot fulfill when it comes to contributing to a UN sponsored climate reparations fund. Congress would need to approve any money he offers up and that won’t happen. Even some Dems are adverse to contributing to the fund (and some, but fewer, Republicans are complimentary of the fund). He can make non binding promises of goals but that’s it. Among significant CO2 producers so far only the UK has come close to making their goals along with the slam dunk goals that required no effort from some countries.

      • It is true that the UK is committed to this rubbish, but it is not a large contributor to CO2 emissions.

        The UK emits only about 1.3% of global CO2 emissions, so even if the UK was to cut back its emissions by 50% that is only a saving of about 0.7%. I bet that China and India would completely wipe out such a cut back within a few months (or so) with all the new coal fired power stations that they are planning to build through to 2030.

      • ‘Congress would need to approve any money he offers up and that won’t happen’

        Obama seems to successfully bypass Congress at will. Why would this be different?

      • Jeff (FL) commented: “….Obama seems to successfully bypass Congress at will. Why would this be different?…”

        Unless there’s a hidden $XB in the budget where will it come from?

      • markl: Look what’s he’s doing with the EPA.
        Next up, have the IRS declare that deductions by companies that create too much CO2 are being cancelled.

      • MarkW commented: “…Look what’s he’s doing with the EPA. Next up, have the IRS declare that deductions by companies that create too much CO2 are being cancelled.”

        I admit there is no end to the possibilities of his over reach but telling the United States to transfer $Bs to the UN as reparations for their past industrial success won’t happen. (He said.) I also believe that if the US goes over the top in Paris….which I think we will as a parting gesture by our lame duck POTUS…. it will cause needed scrutiny to the whole AGW narrative when people realize athe affect on our economy and their personal finances. Everyone wants to be part of saving the world but how many want to finance the effort? Politics will do to AGW what science has been unable to do.

      • Some university a few decades back, lost their tax exempt status because they didn’t permit inter-racial dating. In the public interest of course.
        “Public interest” will be the fulcrum that he will use to completely rewrite the tax code. Without any input from congress.

    • Hopefully “Last Chance” refers to the Democrat’s hold on the White House. If the current executive branch and all of its attending tsars are replaced with nonbelievers in CAGW, then it will cast a pall on the believer’s hope for a world unified under one green flag.

  16. They may finally be correct.
    When the earth starts cooling over the next 10 years, the ability of anyone to scare the public regarding global warming will wane rapidly.

    • Ah, but you don’t understand the beauty of the narrative. Even cooling is caused by global warming. When it starts to cool, you won’t be able to move for all the people calling out: “I told you so”.

  17. I seem to remember Matthew quoting Jesus :- “Truly I say to you, there are some of those who are standing here who will not taste death until they see the Son of Man coming in His kingdom.” (Matthew 16: 27, 28)

    If the Pope is as accurate in his predictions as others in the Christian Church – we have nothing to worry about.

    Matthew also mentions “And many false prophets will appear and deceive many people.”
    Stay sceptical folks

    • A Crooks,

      I hate to be a pest, but you asked for it so to speak;

      “Truly I say to you, there are some of those who are standing here who will not taste death until they see the Son of Man coming in His kingdom.” (Matthew 16: 27, 28)”

      And did you think about what those words imply? . . “… not taste death until …” implies they will taste death, right? . . which means he’s not speaking of what is commonly referred to as “the second coming”, right?

      Can you “seem to remember” anything else in that Book which his disciples would eventually see, that he might have been referring to? ; )

      • That’s when the climate pseudo-scientists will find the downside of selling your integrity for prestige and profit. The political class will claim they were deluded by these scientists and the ‘scientists’ will be thrown to the media for chastising and perhaps to the law for investigation for fraud. And of course, in line with modern practices, they will have to be ‘punished’.
        Then the ‘scientists’ might realise they were just being used, like everyone else in politics.
        Should be interesting.

  18. What does COP actually stand for? It can now be revealed: Confused Obtuse Prognosticators.

    The “21” refers either to the average IQ of the participants, or the average grant in thousands of dollars per alarmist headline published.

  19. In his poem “The Present Crisis,” James Russell Lowell said that we all had only ONE chance:

    “Once to every man and nation comes the moment to decide,
    In the strife of Truth with Falsehood, for the good or evil side; …”

  20. “… the tremendous event that occurred on xxxxx of this year, which probably [will] be finished out on xxxxx … that’s coming very shortly. That looks like it will be … the final end of everything. … I really am beginning to think as I restudied these matters that there’s going to be no big display of any kind. The end is going to come very, very quietly probably within the next xxxxx. It will happen that is by xxxxx.”

    – disgraced Preacher Harold Camping, 2011 (but it reads a bit familiar, no?)

  21. Can anyone please explain what “zero carbon emissions” and “a zero-carbon society” means? Does it really mean zero? Or does it mean net zero? Are we allowed to breathe out? What about volcano emissions? What about forest fires etc?
    Paris 2015:
    “The key element is the goal to limit global warming to below 2C by moving to zero carbon emissions by 2050.”
    “Creating a zero-carbon society by 2050”

    • For example, smoke and mirrors are needed to become a ‘CO2 neutral city’:

      “ProjectZero for a CO2 neutral Sonderborg area” in Denmark by 2029

      http://brightgreenbusiness.com/Files/Files/dokumenter/Masterplan_24nov09%20uk%20version%20sep%202011(endelig).pdf

      “Thus, the objective does not concern emission of climate gasses through non-energy
      related activities, and it does not include CO2 emission from production of imported
      goods and there will be no deduction of CO2 emission linked to export of goods.”

      By that standard I think we’re all pretty much CO2 neutral

    • No, you aren’t allowed to breathe. In fact you will be decomposing quietly along with the other 90% of the human population.

      I forget which one, but one of the major voices in climate change wanted the human population of the Earth to be reduced to about 100 million.

      • If anyone ever finds the source to this reference, I would like to hear from you.

        I heard about this sometime in the mid-1990’s if I remember correctly, and have been trying to chase down the source ever since.

        Thanis in advance.

  22. If Ken Barbour is correct and the first “last chance” was in 1988, maybe the reason that we have had 20 years of no warming is caused by the continuing proliferation of “last chance” conferences and learned papers.

    If you can direct me to a suitable source of hard cash I would be prepared to undertake some research into a possible link.

  23. But, but, but,,,Russia says that we must leave most of our fossil fuels in the ground.
    Russia Today is telling me that there is a “Giant Methane Monster Lurking…”
    As top useful idiot Thom Hartmann explains here “..it’s one big vicious cycle. It’s called a positive feedback loop…And here’s the point where it gets really scary…”

    • I take it that the Giant Methane Monster is either the gut of Paul Ehrlich as described elsewhere on WUWT today or the emmissions from the tonnes of discarded pumpkin innards discussed here a few days ago.

  24. They are right in a way , it may well be indeed the ‘last chance ‘ but not for the planet nor temperature increases but the last chance to keep the climate ‘doom’ gravy train going at full speed , the last chance to use climate ‘doom’ to further political ambition and the last chance to get a carbon tax which can make some people billions , and the last chance for climate ‘science’ to play in the major league before it goes back to unknown and uncared about poor relation to the physical sciences it was before it hit the ‘big time’

    True, there is a great deal of self serving interest hopping something will come out of Paris , including the French politicians if for no other reason than to save face at a time when they really need it. The good news is that in practice although Paris will on one hand be claimed to be a ‘great victory ‘ and yet ‘not enough ‘ not matter what happens.
    There is little reason to think that much will come out of it, the public interest and so political will has mostly gone , while the idea of signing up to ‘given ‘ 100 billion a year to the UN to because of ‘guilt trip’ was always a hard sell now given the economic down turn it not going to happen.

    True Obama is looking for legacy , but his time/term poor so promises can be made knowing that the next president can kill them dead so there is no action , while China and Indian will only sign up to ideas that in reality mean they can do what they like , and Russian is doing nothing , and Europe has ‘other problems ‘ right now. So all the major players are effectively off the table, and mostly all that is left is those looking for hand-outs.

    Ironically it is, hot air , the death of small forest of ‘evil carbon’ skins and mountain of BS that will come out of the ‘last chance ‘ of Paris, not actually meaningful action. This could indeed be consider the beginning of the sadly , for us , slow death of ‘the cause’. While years from now people may look back ask , how could jokers like Mann ever be taken seriously and how was it possible for so much ‘snake oil ‘ to be sold to so many people for so long .

  25. There never actually was a chance that the collective ‘we’ would ever be able keep GHG emissions below the general level mainstream Climate Science indicates is needed to maintain a stable climate.

    The list of reasons is long, but includes vested economic interests, short-sighted, self-serving politics, an uninformed/misinformed ‘I’m-alright-jack’ public, co-ordinated confusionist internet and media campaigns, envious, vociferous ‘experts’ gagging for their 15 mins…etc. Basically human nature as we know it.

    Nope, there never was a chance because the situation requires global cooperation.

    The ‘Last Chance’ is a media/political/environmentalist construct used (rightly or wrongly) to try to create a momentum of urgent action to bring control to a situation where there never has been any. When the impotent, lowest-common-denominator, voluntary Paris Agreement is adopted in December, it can then be hailed as a success – “It was our last chance to tackle this problem, and we did it!”

    • I’ve been saying this for years.

      These junkets are clearly pointless. So why are people doing them?
      It can’t be because of fear of global warming – they aren’t able to do anything about that. If Governments really thought cAGW was a threat they would be spending time adapting rather than having large conferences for the press coverage. It’s obvious that these COPs are going to fail.

      I think it’s the same reason that people bid to host the Olympics and Worlds Cups. It lets the politicians stride the world stage and look important. It boosts them at home. It is a memorable legacy – a glimpse of immortality.

      But it doesn’t actually have to achieve anything.

  26. The following note was prepared to reply to somebody’s request:

    Part I:

    What is climate change?

    According to WMO [1966], which I agree and working in that direction since 1973: climate change has two components, namely systematic variations, which are beyond human control but humans may influence them through trend and this is called man-induced variations [due to human activity] expressed by trend. Systematic variations have two components namely, irregular intra-seasonal and intra-annual variations [relating to weather] and rhythmic variations or fluctuations or cyclic variations [relating to climate]. These are part of natural variability part of climate. They are primarily seen in precipitation. Temperature presents local and regional patterns similar to general circulation and extra-terrestrial patterns. These issues are presented in the text books of meteorology and oceanography.

    1. Systematic variations – local & regional — observed in met data
    a. Fluctuations [truncated data give mis-leading inferences]
    b. Irregular variations [intra-seasonal and intra-annual]
    2. Man induced variations [due to human activity]
    a. Ecological changes [changes in land & water use/cover] – local & regional – observed in met data
    b. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases [though it is used as global but reality is it is also local & regional]

    1(a), 1(b) & 2(a) related to all meteorological parameters and 2(b) related to the temperature only.

    Droughts and floods are part of natural fluctuation in precipitation. Temperature follow these. In drought years temperature goes up, for example 2009 drought the temperature raise was 0.9 oC [annual for India] and flood years it goes down. See below tables for averages and extremes in temperature and precipitation at few met stations.

    Station The Highest Maximum Minimum The Lowest
    [oC]
    Dibrugarh 36.5 27.7 18.7 6.9
    Gauhati 37.0 29.5 19.7 7.8
    Shillong 28.2 21.2 12.1 -0.6
    Cherrapunji 27.5 20.6 14.3 4.0
    Darjeeling 23.5 16.4 10.2 -0.9
    Jalpaiguri 36.3 28.8 19.3 7.2

    Station Annual Mean Rainy The Highest The Lowest Max. in 24 hours
    [mm] days [mm]/year [mm]/year [mm]

    Dibrugarh 2759.4 131.7 3300.2/1954 2165.0/1905 223.5
    Gauhati 1637.2 86.9 2121.1/1956 874.0/1952 232.9
    Shillong 2415.3 128.1 3334.0/1946 1428.8/1958 415.5
    Cherrapunji 11418.7 157.1 15706.6/1951 178.0/1908 973.0
    Darjeeling 2758.4 125.1 4024.4/1890 2271.3/1907 492.8
    Jalpaiguri 3352.7 103.7 4292.2/1938 1719.6/1891 390.4

    What is global warming?

    The man induced trend due to human activity consists of, again, two parts, namely [1] during the industrialization period the increase of greenhouse gases, a component gas of green house effect, known as anthropogenic greenhouse gases, affect the temperature through greenhouse effect; and the second part is non-greenhouse effect component, which comprises several components.

    Ecological changes: The main component that has human activity component is ecological changes, not associated with greenhouse effect. Ecological changes are associated with changes in land & water use and land & water cover. They include heat island effect and cold island effect. Urbanization, deforestation, mining, etc cause the heat island effect. This component is a part of global temperature raise. The quantum relates to the met stations location network. We must remember one thing here, majority of met stations were/are located in urban areas by revenue department for convenience. Because of this urban-heat-island effect dominates the average temperature. Changes in agriculture [dry-land to wetland], water resources development, reforestation, etc will bring down the global temperature if it is added; but in reality the met network was and is sparse in such areas and thus the effect is under reported in averaging of temperature. This is clearly evident from Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere temperature data.

    Data quality: The global average temperature is built in addition to the above mentioned lacunae, on poor quality data before 1950 and even after that the network covers only around 20 to 25% of the globe. For the rest of the regions they were interpolated and extrapolated with grid formations. But under natural variability and general circulation patterns over different parts is the bottleneck. Because of this every now and then agencies that are controlling global data are manipulating to show what they want – recently to remove hiatus in global temperature data series, the data was manipulated and tried to remove the hiatus. They proposed three widely differing reasons for such action. Even in the case of Satellite data, they initially released the data [this I put in my book of 2008] and later withdrew the same. After manipulating this data they again released. However, even with this, the satellite and balloon data jointly show [1951 to 2014] around one-third of the global temperature pattern built by them using ground based data. The satellite and balloon data took in to account the cold and warm island effects and other ecological changes and data gaps. This is balanced global data and yet this has two components: trend and 60-year cycle similar to the global temperature data built based on poor quality ground data. Here the 60-year cycle is natural variability. It only presents the average condition.

    Part II:

    Volcanic eruption – reports suggest that the violent volcanic eruptions would cause some warming for the first few months, and then, when the larger particles have settled, larger global cooling by 1 – 2 K. The degree of this change depends upon the season in which this has occurred. For example: Eruption of Mt Pinatubo in the Philippines in June 1991, there was a slight global warming for the first 3 months after the eruption, possible due to the coincident appearance of an of El Niño event. After the removal the effect of El Niño Southern Oscillation, a fall of global surface temperatures by about 1.0 K in the first year was observed. The anomaly fell to about 0.5 K after 16 months, and erratically returned to normal over the next three years. However, the lower stratospheric temperature in the Tropics rose by over 1.5 K within 3 months after the eruption, as a result of the dust’s absorption of solar radiation. Then the temperature there fell back to normal over the following 18 months, as the dust settled out. So, they are also season and region specific depending up on where they occur. Similarly earthquakes, wars, nuclear tests/nuclear dust, forest fires, etc also contribute to changes in weather, a short term change.

    So this is short lived change. This comes under irregular variation component of systematic variation. They form part of intra-seasonal and intra-annual variability of weather. My study [Indian Journal of Radio & Space Physics, 6:51-59, 1977] of “Power spectral analysis of Lower Stratospheric Meteorological data of H, T, u & v” for 11 stations between 1 to 13 degrees latitude belt and 2 to 103 degrees longitude belt for 100, 50, 30 mb levels. Those inferences concurs these findings only — vary between 6 months to 36 months cycles.

    Solar forcings – Extra-terrestrial phenomenon such as sunspots [solar flares/irradiance] present cyclic variations. The main cycle is of 11 years duration and its multiples of 22, 44 years are also present. My study [Indian Journal of Radio & Space Physics, 6:60-66, 1977] of “Power spectral analysis of Total and Net Radiation Intensities” for 20 stations from India & neighbouring countries showed similar cycles. As the data was not long enough to detect cycles longer than 11 and 22 cycles only at four stations only 44 year cycle was observed in total solar radiation. Global average temperature presents 60-year cycle. The ocean temperature data presented 50 to 70 years in differing modes over different general circulation pattern zones.

    Volumes and volumes were written by thousands of people on RF; but nobody gave quantitative figures for anthropogenic greenhouse effect part, which we term it as global warming. Even IPCC made qualitative statements like tossing a coin: you may get head or tail only. Now, let us come to IPCC – they monotonically reduced the sensitivity factor in carbon dioxide forcing from SER to AR5 [in AR4 it was 1.95 and in AR5 it was 1.55]. Also, in AR5 they qualitatively divided global temperature in to two parts, namely more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together. This relates to the trend component only. Cyclic variation component is form part of systematic variation [60-year cycle – presented in my 2008 book from my earlier analysis] superposed on the trend. Anthropogenic component has two parts, namely one is associated with greenhouse effect and the other is non-greenhouse effect component. If we divide the 50% [though IPCC said more than 50%, even 50.1% is more than 50% only] equally in to these two components, the greenhouse effect component [global warming component] is around 25%. This is the component associated with anthropogenic greenhouse gases [carbon dioxide] increase in the atmosphere. The second 25% component is not associated with carbon dioxide increase in the atmosphere. The remaining around 50% of the global temperature raise is due to non-anthropogenic component. The net, non-anthropogenic greenhouse gases component – not associated with the green house effect – is around 75%. This part not only contributes to the changes in temperature but also to the changes in other meteorological parameters. This is a local and regional phenomenon will not contribute to global impacts. According to this, if the global temperature raise for example is 1.0 oC, the global warming component is 0.25 oC. If we take the satellite and balloon data, 1.0 oC is only 0.35 oC only. Here, the major advection factor was not taken in to account at local/regional level. IPCC must come up with the quantitative percent – 25% or less or more then only there will be sense in it.

    Global warming component: Here the basic physics is: according to Plank’s law the maximum energy the Sun can emit is 2.0ly/min. There is no chance that it will reach infinite level as presumed under global warming. The carbon dioxide equivalent gases have already converted the peak energy in to temperature. Since industrialization, the carbon dioxide that is being pumped in to the atmosphere has no impact on energy component as it is already saturated. So, we are in the plateau. That means the global warming component is insignificant with the passing of time irrespective what we do – increase or decrease carbon dioxide. Because of this IPCC is going on changing sensitivity factor, through trial and error????

    Note: To raise the global warming by 2 oC, the global temperature must reach 8 oC

    To global temperature to 2 oC, the global warming maight have to reach 0.5 oC.

    Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy

    • Why is global warming necessarily “man-induced?” We are well into an interglacial period during which global temperatures increase until they don’t. Then back into another ice age.

  27. It’s a bit like the Restaurant at the End of the Universe.

    Eternally stuck in the Last-Chance Saloon.

  28. I thought everyone was suppose to throw in some cash, make emissions reductions voluntary, then declare a historic success. Co2 will continue to rise but is not all about “intentions”? Oh, and awards.

  29. If they really believed this is truly the last chance and when it is all over and nothing gets done, they will all give up and go out and find real jobs. Sorry , was daydreaming a bit there.

  30. As far as this thread is concerned we had our first ‘last chance’ in 2005. I reckon they were absolutely right we are way way past the tipping point we are completely doomed, there is nothing that can possibly be done to save the world from Armageddon.

    So there is absolutely no point in going on about it or spending money any longer trying to work out how fast it is coming. Lets have the money back in our pockets so we can spend it how WE see fit in these last few miserable years we have left…………/sarc

  31. This technique was long ago perfected along old Route 66, mostly along the New Mexico Arizona stretch.
    “Last Chance” gas
    “Last Chance” diner
    etc. etc.

  32. Last chance? Sounds more like a groundhog day gone sour. Punxsutawney Phil has superior personality (includes also optimism) and prediction skills (39% correct).

  33. I suspect that what we are seeing in many of these “big show” pronouncements and events, is essentially material for “future history”. Which is to say, potential entries in a narrative that is not yet definite as to details, but will require details when it is “finalized” at some later time.

    The earlier forecasts of “last chances” simply won’t appear as that, if the history is written by the people now intending to acquire the power to write history, literally. There will be mentions of warnings unheeded, no doubt, but edited to reflect how wise and prescient the “globalists elites” were, and how unwise and stubborn “we” were.

    The implication I am suggesting folks consider, is that there will be a “collapse” of society as we know it now, intentionally induced, after which the “globalists elite” intend to erect a new society, complete with a historical narrative that justifies the (return of) rule by a few “elites”, through vilification of our then “failed” attempts at rule by consent of the governed. (You know, the racist, sexist, wasteful, violent, xenophobic, environment insensitive, ignorance and selfishness dominated society our little fling with self governance has resulted in?).

  34. Wouldn’t it be better if COP-21 (sic) actually represents grant-mongering AGW deviants’ own final fling, affixing their Watermelon-green/red armbands to goosestep as one off Gaia’s climatological cliff-face?

    The unbearable asininity of these proctocranial Know Nothings will resonate in times-and-places greater than pea-brained academicians will ever know.

  35. Reblogged this on Climatism and commented:
    ‘If Paris doesn’t work out, I’m sure there will be another “last chance” coming to a destination city very soon.’

    Likewise if Paris ‘works out’ !

  36. Now, … this is really, … I mean REEELY, REEEEEly the last chance.

    (Algore needs his bathrooms renovated for the latest live-in crack whore.)

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