Guest essay by Eric Worrall
h/t The Register – the UK MET Office has published a report which suggests the pause in global temperatures might continue for many years to come. Or the pause might not continue. They’re not really sure.
According to The UK MET (talking about the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation);
Despite these signals it is not certain that there will be a shift towards cooler Atlantic conditions over the next few years. Temporary cooling has occurred in the past without leading to a sustained AMO shift. However, the current trends suggest that the chances of a shift in the next few years have increased.
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The current warm phase is now 20 years long and historical precedent suggests a return to relatively cool conditions could occur within a few years (Knight et al., 2005). However, the short observational record precludes a confident prediction based on observations alone.
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Observational (Folland et al. 2013) and model (Knight et al. 2005) estimates further suggest AMO shifts have an effect on global mean near-surface temperatures of about 0.1 ̊C. A rapid AMO decline could therefore maintain the current slowdown in global warming longer than would otherwise be the case.
Read more: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/8/c/Changes_In_The_Climate_System.pdf
Lets not forget, what we are dealing with is settled science.
The fact that there is so much sensible debate and analysis in blogs like this definitely shows that the science is not settled. Yet our politicians here (NZ) are convinced that it is and are embarking on programmes that will damage the economy. How do we rationally and coolly get them to see sense? Regarding the prediction of weather, my Physics lecturer was a big wig forecaster in the Pacific theatre during WW2. His prediction method was to hang a piece of string from his window overnight. In the morning he drew it in and felt it. If it was wet it was raining. If not, it wasn’t. Later, he graduated to using a toy Indian with a cobalt salt impregnated loin cloth. The instructions to the Indian stated “When Indian blue, skies are too. When pink, weather stink.” He preferred this improved technology as he was able to stay in bed as he made his forecasts.
Maybe we need an Indian for climate change?