There are no tropical storm, depressions, or hurricanes anywhere on Earth.
Guest essay by Dr. Richard Keen
Today is the normal peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season,
![peakofseason[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/peakofseason1.gif)
So far, the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season has been a dud. For the past few days Tropical Storm Henri has churned, or at least ruffled, the waters of the central Atlantic. But a few hours ago our friends at the National Hurricane Center
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ issued this sad news:
Remnants of HENRI …HENRI DISSIPATES… …THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY…
Bye bye Henri.
Meanwhile, in the Eastern Pacific, NHC says:
Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 48 hours.
In Honolulu, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center says:
No tropical cyclones are expected through Sunday evening.
But it’s a big planet, so out in the seas of typhoons and Bengal cyclones, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) chimes in:
There are no active tropical warnings in the Northwest Pacific/North Indian Ocean, Central/Eastern Pacific, or Southern Hemisphere at this time.
Today there are no storms in the Southern Hemisphere, or in all of the ocean basins of the Northern Hemisphere (barring an undetected tropical storm over the Arctic Ocean).
Putting it all together…
It’s the peak of the hurricane season, and guess what…
There are no hurricanes, tropical storms, or even tropical depressions anywhere on Planet Earth.
I’m not sure how common this is, but to paraphrase Al Gore, Michio Kaku, and other experts, is this the new normal?
For posterity, here’s a screen shot of the NHC front page this evening:
http://i60.tinypic.com/vsf9me.png
And the JTWC page:
http://i60.tinypic.com/11qq0dc.png
UPDATE: Dr. Philip Klotzbach agrees. In a tweet today he says:
The globe remains TC (>=35 kts) free today. The last time that September 12 was TC-free around the globe was 1977.
[added by Anthony at publication time] And here are satellite views spanning the globe:
The missed a massive depression forming in N. Canada… summer is gone and winter is coming! Sarc 7.8 😉
I’m sure the Japanese will be happy for some respite after the tropical storm they’ve just experienced.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/11/world/asia/japan-floods.html?_r=0
This is a catastrophe. Hurricanes are essential for [insert any old nonsense here]. CO2 is choking the planet and so we have to redistributed trillions of dollars of wealth.
Sorry to be pedantic but isn’t every low pressure system a “depression”?
There must be lots in the world today.
We just had one cross the UK.
According to the National Hurricane center. A “Tropical Depression” is defined as:
“Tropical Depression: A tropical system in which the maximum sustained surface wind is 33 knots (38 mph) or less. Though the wind speeds are significantly less than those in a hurricane, tropical depressions are capable of producing tremendous rainfall amounts. During the week of July 3rd through the 7th in 1994, Tropical Storm Alberto moved inland and weakened to a depression. It then moved into Georgia and produced up to 28 inches of rainfall causing catastrophic river and small stream flooding.”
That may well be the definition of a “tropical depression”, according to the UKMO, a simple “depression” is any low pressure area.
“In a depression (also referred to as a ‘low’), air is rising. As it rises and cools, water vapour condenses to form clouds and perhaps precipitation. Consequently, the weather in a depression is often cloudy, wet and windy (with winds blowing in an anticlockwise direction around the depression). There are usually frontal systems associated with depressions.”
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/weather-for-kids/understanding-weather
Maybe my interpretation is because we don’t get many “tropical depressions” in the UK and it isn’t a term which is used in relation to UK weather.
Yet I read in NewScientist letters: From John Hunwick
John Hunwick is living in alternate universe where less is more, light is dark and calm is storm. And fibbing, apparently, is truth for John.
Is he a liar or a lunatic?
Both.
If you don’t like the weather, wait a minute.
If you don’t like the climate, wait a little longer.
=====================
Or MOVE!
I like being a snowbird. Apache junction is cowboy heaven in january.
My brother lives in far eastern Mesa.
He rates elderly drivers from northern states so as to know which license plates to give the widest berth.
Turn signals flashing there mean either that I’m about to turn or that I have turned in the past 30 minutes.
My father-in -law was a two footer. The doors of his minivan would lock as he changed position in the seat while going highway speed. That was the first time he took his foot off the brake since he started it up. He complained that the cruise control wouldn’t stay working. When I start that, take my license, please…
So your saying that it’s “extremely calm”? I can almost hear the press release being written: “This is just what we’ve been predicting all along. Another extreme weather condition.”
The damage to science has been incalculable, but the attack on common sense has been even worse. Try to imagine a government official telling an auditor that he needs more funding to make his department more efficient:
“We think fossil fuels are bad, so we’ve been meeting to discuss how to eliminate them. Virtual meetings? Oh no, we like to get everyone face-to-face. Last year we flew 15,000 people to Peru. In fact, we had to build a temporary dorm just to house everyone. You think that was bad, you should have seen the meeting we had in Bali. So many planes that the airport shut down and some people had to fly to nearby airports and take boats to the island. You couldn’t get a limo to save your life. Cancun was even worse. Luckily when we held the meeting in Amsterdam we had an extreme weather event the PROVED global warming was real. What? No…not a heat wave, it was, um…snow.
Have we considered smaller meetings? Oh, sure…we have those too. Just this year we all flew to Dubai, and there was a pre-meeting in Paris, and another big one in New York. But we’re still having the big meeting in Paris in November. How many flights this year? I dunno…,maybe 10,000 there and of course 10,000 return flights, just like we had for the smaller meetings. Yeah, 100,000 flights this year sounds about right. So, all we need now is about $100 Billion per year and we figure we’ll have this problem licked.”
Energy gluttons need the peasants to cut back on what they consume which is how the Medieval kings ruled the masses and…the church. Never practice what you preach is the ruling elite’s motto.
“So your saying that it’s “extremely calm”? I can almost hear the press release being written: “This is just what we’ve been predicting all along. Another extreme weather condition.””
Believe it or not, some gov’t. agency is counting unusually temperatures cool in summer as evidence of “extreme” weather. That’s technically correct but misleading.
“A truth that’s told with bad intent / Beats all the lies you can invent.”
Global warming???
“SHOCK WEATHER WARNING: Coldest winter for 50 YEARS set to bring MONTHS of heavy snow to UK”
Sub-zero temperatures and violent snow storms could hit as soon as late October as a freak ocean cooling in the Atlantic threatens to trigger a historic, nationwide whiteout. Emergency services have been warned to prepare for a repeat of the devastating 1962/63 winter which saw rivers and lakes freeze over across Britain.
The shock warnings have also sparked fears Britain could face fuel and food shortages as roads and transport networks grind to a halt.Sub-zero temperatures and violent snow storms could hit as soon as late October as a freak ocean cooling in the Atlantic threatens to trigger a historic, nationwide whiteout.
Emergency services have been warned to prepare for a repeat of the devastating 1962/63 winter which saw rivers and lakes freeze over across Britain. The shock warnings have also sparked fears Britain could face fuel and food shortages as roads and transport networks grind to a halt.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/604619/Long-range-weather-forecast-Britain-cold-winter-2015-arctic-snow-freeze
Freak ocean cooling, eh!
Fret,
That was the severe winter which convinced Callendar that his 1938 hypothesis of global warming from man-made CO2 was false. Despite steadily rising CO2 after the War, the earth had cooled noticeably.
Of course, he thought global warming was a good thing.
The above forecast should be understood as : mild and pleasant winter, warmer than average.
Forecast from the last April for this summer:
“Britain is set to have a three-month heatwave, according to predictions from the Met Office, which says the hottest-ever spring and summer could be on the way”.
If the Met were reliable as a counter-indicator, it would at least be of some use. As it is, it’s simply usually but not always wrong. Being no better than guessing isn’t good enough.
Fret
The source – the (London) Daily Express is thought of by some as a supermarket Tabloid.
A milli-smidgen better that (photoshopped) ‘Bus sighted on Moon’, followed a month later with ‘Bus vanishes from Moon’ – with original un-photoshopped picture . . . .
reliability – not high.
Auto – really not expecting to get the snow-shoes out this October in London.
“Tabloids” in the UK press are not the same as American supermarket tabloids. In fact, I think you can often get a better idea of what’s happening in the UK from the tabloids (like the Express or the Mail) than you can from the “quality” newspapers.
See global warming is killing hurricanes. All you murderous CO2 expellers are killing hurricanes. Damn you wattsupwiththat.com. lol.
The altitude of Addis Ababa is 2,326 metres (7631 feet) and not 10,000 feet. The rainy season includes July, August and some of September. Addis Ababa is in the Northern hemisphere and so it is now ‘summer’ not ‘winter’ although being near the Equator (+9°1′48″N 38°44′24″E), the terms wet and dry seasons are more appropriate. If the rains fail, it gets hot, but usually it is hottest in Daliol (Elevation -130 metres below sea level) in the Afar Depression. Record high in Addis Ababa is 32 C. Daliol’s average annual temperature is 35°C and reaches 48°C at times.
ntesdorf – Good comment on Addis et al. I used to work there from time to time. Human adaptation is an interesting thing. In December I used to walk around Addis in a T shirt while the locals were often dressed in winter jackets. They are used to the warmer temperatures while those of us from more northern climes (Canada in my case) are used to colder temperatures and find the Addis temperature quite comfortable in comparison. Did work from the Red Sea to the Kenyan border, from Somalia to the Egyptian border (when safety permitted), Lots of water projects and some sanitation. The Rift Valley is a beautiful place. Mostly good memories.
The Rift Valley is probably our ancient homeland, although recent discoveries in South Africa might challenge that view. Depends upon their dating.
What is known is that chimps and gorillas occur to the west of the Rift and hominids to the east.
Or should I say hominins, to use the latest terminology. But you know what I mean. Us upright walkers.
So, are the English ones homonyms?
I haven’t seen a decent hurricane swell in 5 years. We used to have a good hurricane swell for surfing twice a year growing up in the 80s and 90s. I remember hurricane felix and eduardo with huge mid atlantic waves. The starving east coast surfers starve some more .Maybe october will turn on.
As I mentioned last year, no major hurricane has struck the United States since Anthony created WattsUpWithThat. Well done!
Now, there’s a robust correlation!
The sun has been pretty quiet for the last couple of weeks, too.
No bad “space weather” and not so much terrestrial weather.
And WattsUpWithThat is still rolling.
Gotta be good.
It is slowly heading for the long (hope not too long) slumber, only the Ap is holding the form
http://www.solen.info/solar/images/solar.png
Ap is the name for a measurement of changes in the geomagnetic that are caused by solar wind bursts.
The solar wind bursts are caused by coronal holes (primary cause) and sunspots. Note there are almost no sunspots now on the surface of the sun but there are a continual stream of coronal holes which is the reason for the sudden increase in the AP. Blue graph at the bottom of the above attached graph.
The solar wind bursts create a space charge differential in the earth’s ionosphere which in turn cause a current flow at high latitude regions on the planet and at the equator.
The current flow cause changes in cloud amount and cloud properties at both locations that cause warming.The mechanism by which solar wind bursts affect planetary cloud cover is called electroscavenging.
I believe based on past correlation that the reason for the current El Niño is the sudden unset of solar wind bursts. The solar wind burst affect lasts for 5 to 6 days so what is required is a steady stream of wind bursts rather than one large massive wind burst. The coronal holes are long lasting (can last for months) and produce multiple wind bursts as the pass the earth.
The coronal holes are starting to shrink and/or move to higher latitude regions of the sun where they no longer affect planetary climate. When they do the planet will cool significantly.
When the solar cycle abruptly slows down there is an increase in wind speed, particularly over the ocean. This increase in wind speed shows up in the paleo record as an increased in dust deposited on the Greenland ice sheet. During an Heinrich event the amount of dust increases ten fold.
I would assume the increase in wind speed over the ocean is the reason for the sudden drop in tropical storm formation.
Yes, we are heading into a cooling cycle due to the sun. I saw on You Tube a video about how we could have another ice age and then at the very end of this educational video they had an astronomer say the sun causes ice ages/warming cycles and then spent ten minutes saying the astronomer was stupid and that we are all going to roast to death.
I assume the ending was tacked on recently to the documentary and it contradicted everything the scientists said in the documentary. It was very unsettling.
Here is a 1970’s video about the possibility of an ice age: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqsRD4HPtH0
Valetina Zharkova reckons Londoners will be able to cross the Thames on ice skates in the not too distant future
Well maybe she didn’t exactly but they might…
https://www.ras.org.uk/news-and-press/2680-irregular-heartbeat-of-the-sun-driven-by-double-dynamo
https://www.northumbria.ac.uk/about-us/our-staff/z/professor-valentina-zharkova/
This’d be about the same time Peter Wadhams tell us Arctic summer ice will disappear
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/sep/17/arctic-collapse-sea-ice
Of course he might not be able to warn us in the future as he will have been assassinated by evil minions of the oil industry [ or maybe even Smersh]
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/globalwarming/11762680/Three-scientists-investigating-melting-Arctic-ice-may-have-been-assassinated-professor-claims.html
What do you mean? This hurricane season has simply been horrendous. How can you claim Global Warming causes disastrous hurricanes when there are no hurricanes?
Probably not an issue for Al Gore who can’t tell the difference between a masseuse and a hooker. For him more hurricanes, less hurricanes, it’s all bad, and the blame is CO2 and those who produce it.
Let’s just switch to “Global warming is causing less moisture-laden, life-sustaining hurricane systems resulting in more severe droughts worldwide!”
The unusually low number of storms is proof the climate is changing.
Everyone knows warming at the poles reduces the temperature differentiation between the poles and the tropics, causing milder weather.
There has been warming in the northern half of the Northern Hemisphere.
There has not been warming in the southern half of the Southern Hemisphere, but that must be an error from bad thermometers, because the computer models said there was going to be a lot of warming there, causing Wall Street to be underwater.
Who are you going to believe, smart computers, or dumb thermometers?
Brace yourselves for this headline: “Severe Tropical Weather Dangerously Low! Global Warming Suspected Cause!”
Classic global warming theory (it did warm prior to the plateau) says warming reduces violent storms because the poles warm more than the equator reducing the temp differential that powers storms. Tho they haven’t mentioned it lately. Instead, they say the opposite, for no apparent reason.
I am very concerned about the rest of the season. Pressures have risen across northwest South America, which is not an el nino signal. In addition the Pacific has quieted immensely. The ITCZ has come to life as the easterlies are slowing in the Atlantic The N American pattern with major ridging through the lakes and northeast the coming 2-4 weeks along with boiling subtropical Atlantic SST/s as warm as I have ever seen them, ( see link below) mean I am not be crowing this season is over yet. I am very concerned that the ace the 2cnd half of the season doubles the 1st half. Lets hope they are all away from the coast, but the pattern is not unlike 2002, the EL NINO YEAR OF Isadore and Lili , both majors within 10 days of each other in the gulf and after Sept 20. Keep in mind that Camille, Alicia, Betsy, Belle Bob Andrew ( tail end) Flora, Audrey, The so called perfect storm which absorbed the Grace from that year in late October, among others did occur in el nno seasons.
Where the warm water is http://models.weatherbell.com/sst/natl_cdas1_anom.png , the pattern of pressure rises over NW S america and over the northeast US in the means will focus the attention for trouble in areas that mean we should be concerned that as we deepen into the second half of the season, this is not over yet. The weakening of the Columbian Heat low is likely due to the cooling in parts of ENSO 1.2 but is also a seasonal effect, but by doing so weakens the trades and allows for extra convergence in the tropics. It was something taught to me by Gil Clark back in the 1980s and is something that I am watching now
cheers
Your link doesn’t work.
It’s difficult to fathom out exactly what point you are trying to make
It’s worse than we thought!
It also correlates with relative public disappearance of Gore and Co.
Living at Katrina’s Ground Zero ( the shore of Bay Saint Louis, MS) I take some interest in hurricanes.
My understanding is that an El Nino event causes atmospheric circulation patterns that either block or shear the storms apart, and we have a strong El Nino going right now.
I’m glad for the ‘no storms’ daily weather report.
But…. the season’s not over…. Y’all keep it quiet for a few more weeks.
Don’t put the jinx on us!
Global tropical cyclone activity is 149% of normal this year so it’s been a big one after a string of quiet years.
http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php