It's the peak of the hurricane season, and guess what…

There are no tropical storm, depressions, or hurricanes anywhere on Earth.

Guest essay by Dr. Richard Keen

Today is the normal peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season,

peakofseason[1]

Number of Tropical Cyclones per 100 Years (NOAA/NHC)

Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/peakofseason.gif

So far, the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season has been a dud.  For the past few days Tropical Storm Henri has churned, or at least ruffled, the waters of the central Atlantic.  But a few hours ago our friends at the National Hurricane Center

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ issued this sad news:

Remnants of HENRI  …HENRI DISSIPATES… …THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY…

Bye bye Henri.

Meanwhile, in the Eastern Pacific, NHC says:

Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 48 hours.

In Honolulu, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center says:

No tropical cyclones are expected through Sunday evening.

But it’s a big planet, so out in the seas of typhoons and Bengal cyclones, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) chimes in:

There are no active tropical warnings in the Northwest Pacific/North Indian Ocean, Central/Eastern Pacific, or Southern Hemisphere at this time.

Today there are no storms in the Southern Hemisphere, or in all of the ocean basins of the Northern Hemisphere (barring an undetected tropical storm over the Arctic Ocean).

Putting it all together…

It’s the peak of the hurricane season, and guess what…

There are no hurricanes, tropical storms, or even tropical depressions anywhere on Planet Earth.

I’m not sure how common this is, but to paraphrase Al Gore, Michio Kaku, and other experts, is this the new normal?

For posterity, here’s a screen shot of the NHC front page this evening:

http://i60.tinypic.com/vsf9me.png

And the JTWC page:

http://i60.tinypic.com/11qq0dc.png

UPDATE: Dr. Philip Klotzbach agrees. In a tweet today he says:

The globe remains TC (>=35 kts) free today. The last time that September 12 was TC-free around the globe was 1977.

[added by Anthony at publication time] And here are satellite views spanning the globe:

sat-indoexfd-09-12-15 sat-meteosat-East-Atlantic sat-goes-atlantic-09-12-15 sat-goes-pacific-9-12-15

sat-goes9fd-09-12-15

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134 thoughts on “It's the peak of the hurricane season, and guess what…

  1. But a couple of weeks ago, when there were three short lived Cat Fours out at once, it was headline news on the pro-warmer circuit…

    • Wow , four cat 4’s now nothing? That’s WEIRD
      and we all know what causes weird weather …. global warming !
      QED.

      • Living on the odd southeastern appendage, dull hurricane seasons are great. Bastardi scared me into starting my generator after nine years (yea Honda engines) with the forecast that if a hurricane survived the shear it could intensify really quickly. I’m thinking Andrew here. Was a good exercise anyway.
        I’ve stared at the 100 year graph for quite a while. It always seemed heuristically the season falls off rather rapidly after mid Sept. but it’s not supported by the data. Maybe the late season paths tend to be fish storms that I don’t really pay attention to.
        Question on the 100 year graph: it’s never made sense to me that there are upticks just before Oct. 20 and Nov. 10. I would expect 100 years and (approximating) 1200 storms to rather smooth that graph. I can’t tell; were there some anomalous year(s) throwing that into the data or is there really some kind of other underlying effect????? Ideas????

    • It’s also making the ground harder, I can testify. Fifty years ago, I could sleep on the ground all night, now I can hardly do it with an air mattress. Proof positive, and it’s all due to global warming.

  2. Conclusion: On the hottest year ever 2015 (yet to be named) Man-Made Global warming causes fewer hurricanes or more if there are more than normal or the same amount if there are average amount of hurricanes. Did I miss anything?

      • The effect is obvious, . . .
        I understand that earthlings cannot burn all the fuel at once. However, if that were possible the obvious would be a collapse of commercial agricultural, energy powered industry, fuel based transportation, and so on and on. Most people would soon die, cities would be abandoned, movement of people and goods would be by wheeled carts, horses, and travoises.

    • where did the ‘all at once’ come from?
      “The conclusion of a new scientific study shows that, over the course of centuries, land currently inhabited by a billion people would be lost below water.”

    • Potsdam is german for damn potty.
      In terms of hyper non-scientific bull, this has to take the all time prize. We barely know how to measure ice volume yet think they know enough about how polar climate works to talk about projecting, not decades, not centuries but MILLENNIA into the future.
      Sorry guys you are talking shite . Your PhDs have just been declared nul and void. You are now require to go and get real job. Try rent-boy if you like jerking people off. We’ve had enough.

      • BTW there’s a pretty damn good chance that we will be heading into another glaciation in three millennia , if not before. That is if human civilisation has not long since collapsed.
        What are these guys smoking ???

      • Based on the eccentricity cycle, we also might be enjoying one of those every 400,000 year super interglacials that last more than 20 thousand years. In fact, the Holocene could be a super, duper one enduring another 50,000 years.
        In that case some natural “catastrophic” warming could occur, but depends on how warm the interglacial stays. Probably not very. My guess would be chilly but not as cold as a glacial. Maybe a continuation of the cooling trend for the past 3000 years, with ups, as now, and downs, as in the LIA.

  3. Yes, but yesterday, 9/11 in Mecca, in the Grand Mosque no less, a freak thunderstorm toppled a giant crane and killed over 100 “pilgrims’ and wounded over 200.
    There are still acts of God.

  4. Doesn’t this point out that there is no unusual warming anywhere? I have noticed a trend over the last few months….. The average difference between the reported temperature in Modesto Ca. ( my nearest official reporting station) and my home weather station has increased from by nearly one half a degree F. When they reported 100 F my station shows 96.5 in the suburbs . I understand that since their station is at the airport surrounded buy runway concrete and jet exhaust they will be the hottest place in the area, but could it be they are enhancing their numbers to insure that once again we have had the hottest year ever? They wouldn’t do that….would they?

  5. Drop in the accumulated cyclone energy as anticipated in 2012 and updated in 2013
    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/AHA.gif
    This would happen if the sub-equatorial North Atlantic is cooling, implying that the N. Atlantic SST is overestimated. Some of my other recent calculations suggest that the SST may be currently over-inflated by about 0.2 to 0.3C, and that the actual temperature may be more in line with 1950’s.

  6. Accumulated Cyclonic Energy (ACE) is a much better estimate of the strength of the hurricane season than the numbers of tropical storms (aka tropical cyclones is you want to scare people) and hurricanes. Essentially ACE is the integral of hurricane strength vs. time over the entire hurricane season. So far the season looks quite weak (but it ain’t over yet). For details see http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/accumulated_cyclone_energy.asp
    You don’t have to be a tropical storm for very long to boost the storm number, but it doesn’t increase the ACE by much.
    The same link shows just how piddling 6/8 of the tropical storms/hurricanes have been.

    • “a one-time view of the world’s weather says something (anything) about long term climate trends”
      Funny how that knife cuts both ways

    • Well, these one-time views are adding up, right? How many consecutive warmest-ever years with quiet hurricane seasons does it take to break the assertion: “Hurricanes and storms are expected to increase in a warming world”? I, for one, am starting to not expect increasing hurricanes.

    • warrenlb
      September 12, 2015 at 7:35 am
      So the comments are that a one-time view of the world’s weather says something (anything) about long term climate trends?

      Tell that to your own side. Every day, every bad weather event is labelled a sure sign of climate change. Baaaah humbug to you.

      The Evening Independent – 24 November 1928
      Weather Is Climate Only Under Exceptional Circumstances
      But It’s Always Good for Conversation
      http://tinyurl.com/ovn8ygf
      ============
      Guardian – 20 December 2010
      George Monbiot
      That snow outside is what global warming looks like
      Unusually cold winters may make you think scientists have got it all wrong. But the data reveal a chilling truth
      …..So why wasn’t this predicted by climate scientists? Actually it was, and we missed it……
      http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/dec/20/uk-snow-global-warming
      ============
      Independent – 7 August 2012
      Recent extreme heatwaves ‘a result of global warming’
      …Dr Hansen said that at least three extreme summers over the past decade, the 2003 heatwave in Europe which killed more than 50,000 people, the 2010 hot summer in Moscow and last year’s droughts in Texas and Oklahoma, were almost certainly the result of man-made climate change rather than natural events….
      http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/recent-extreme-heatwaves-a-result-of-global-warming-8010213.html
      ============
      February 18, 2013
      Global warming could lead to more blizzards but less overall snow.
      With scant snowfall and barren ski slopes in parts of the Midwest and Northeast the past couple of years, some scientists have pointed to global warming as the culprit.
      Then when a whopper of a blizzard smacked the Northeast with more than 2 feet of snow in some places earlier this month, some of the same people again blamed global warming…..
      ============
      VOA – 12 November 2013
      Climate Change Linked to Typhoon Haiyan
      …Some experts say man-made climate change is to blame.
      Bob Ward is from the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change at the London School of Economics.
      “There’s certainly strong circumstantial evidence because we know that the strength of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, typhoons depends very much on sea surface temperatures. They act as the fuel. And we’ve got very warm waters in the Pacific at the moment, which have been increasing because of climate change,” said Ward….
      ============
      Daily Telegraph – 8 Feb 2014
      Climate change is to blame, says Met Office scientist
      Flooding like that in Somerset may become more frequent
      Climate change is behind the storms that have struck Britain this winter, according to the Met Office.
      Dame Julia Slingo, the Met Office’s chief scientist, said while there was not yet “definitive” proof, “all the evidence” supported the theory that climate change had played a role.
      Ed Davey, the Liberal Democrat Climate Change Secretary, warned….“There is clear scientific evidence that climate change has led to sea levels rising and that extreme weather events will become more frequent and more intense,” Mr Davey said….
      http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/10626736/Climate-change-is-to-blame-says-Met-Office-scientist.html
      ============
      National Geographic – 26 January 2015
      Blizzard of Nor’Easters No Surprise, Thanks to Climate Change
      …They call it completely predictable.
      “Big snowfall, big rainstorms, we’ve been saying this for years,” says climate scientist Don Wuebbles of the University of Illinois in Urbana. “More very large events becoming more common is what you would expect with climate change, particularly in the Northeast.”…
      http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2015/01/150126-blizzard-weather-climate-northeast-science/

  7. 1977 was before the satellite era, so there is a chance that there was a small, weak storm somewhere in the world, and if no ship sailed through it, or plane flew through it, it would have gone undetected.

  8. These kinds of facts HAVE to be embarrassing for the warmists. Why does anyone keep publishing the predictions of these people when the facts consistently prove them wrong?

    • I dont think it embarasses them at all. Everything that happens seems to confirm how right they were all along.

      • Their party line seems to be that increase or even average incidence or severity is a sign of climate change. But a lower than average season with no strikes on the US or even FOUR consecutive years of such seasons is just chance.

  9. you didn’t mention the association between solar flares and hurricane formation. I think it would be good to point out this mechanism where the suns activity directly influences earth weather events.

  10. The overall trend is that there is no significant change over long term (climate relevant) periods.
    The climate obsessed claimed loud and clear in no uncertain terms that the freakish tragic seasons of 2004 & 2005 were the “new normal”. Skeptics asserted that a two year spike was not unusual in climate history, and that none of the storms in those terrible two seasons were particularly unusual either.
    The climate obsessed (academia, media, activists, popular opinion leaders) are proven wrong by reality.
    The skeptics are once again proven right.
    Yet people world wide are paying ridiculously high insurance premiums based on AGW inspired predictions that at best are wrong.

  11. Reality is failing to live up to the proclamations of Dr. Trenberth who indicated (post-Katrina) that we would see increases in hurricane frequency and intensity due to AGW. Instead, it has gone the other way. Maybe he has an Algore effect on hurricanes?

    • I note that the ‘Gore Effect’ has been in Wikipedia since shortly after it snowed at COP15 in Copenhagen in 2009 (which Gore attended)!
      The ‘Gore Effect’ so often happens it will be in climate ‘science’ text books soon.

  12. Obama and his minions still insist that hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones are “worse than we thought” and will continue to increase in both frequency and intensity the higher CO2 levels become….
    The empirical evidence conclusively show these catastrophic predictions made by CAGW beneficiaries were hilariously inaccurate and false…
    If CAGW is such a slam dunk and can longer even be debated, why do political hacks feel the need to lie about the facts?

    • Lying is what they do. They just can’t help themselves. It was once said of Bill Clinton by a fellow Democrat that he would tell a lie, even when the truth would be more beneficial to him.

  13. This is a catastrophe. Hurricanes are essential for [insert any old nonsense here]. CO2 is choking the planet and so we have to redistributed trillions of dollars of wealth.

  14. Sorry to be pedantic but isn’t every low pressure system a “depression”?
    There must be lots in the world today.
    We just had one cross the UK.

    • According to the National Hurricane center. A “Tropical Depression” is defined as:
      “Tropical Depression: A tropical system in which the maximum sustained surface wind is 33 knots (38 mph) or less. Though the wind speeds are significantly less than those in a hurricane, tropical depressions are capable of producing tremendous rainfall amounts. During the week of July 3rd through the 7th in 1994, Tropical Storm Alberto moved inland and weakened to a depression. It then moved into Georgia and produced up to 28 inches of rainfall causing catastrophic river and small stream flooding.”

      • That may well be the definition of a “tropical depression”, according to the UKMO, a simple “depression” is any low pressure area.
        “In a depression (also referred to as a ‘low’), air is rising. As it rises and cools, water vapour condenses to form clouds and perhaps precipitation. Consequently, the weather in a depression is often cloudy, wet and windy (with winds blowing in an anticlockwise direction around the depression). There are usually frontal systems associated with depressions.”
        http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/weather-for-kids/understanding-weather
        Maybe my interpretation is because we don’t get many “tropical depressions” in the UK and it isn’t a term which is used in relation to UK weather.

  15. If you don’t like the weather, wait a minute.
    If you don’t like the climate, wait a little longer.
    =====================

      • My brother lives in far eastern Mesa.
        He rates elderly drivers from northern states so as to know which license plates to give the widest berth.
        Turn signals flashing there mean either that I’m about to turn or that I have turned in the past 30 minutes.

      • My father-in -law was a two footer. The doors of his minivan would lock as he changed position in the seat while going highway speed. That was the first time he took his foot off the brake since he started it up. He complained that the cruise control wouldn’t stay working. When I start that, take my license, please…

  16. So your saying that it’s “extremely calm”? I can almost hear the press release being written: “This is just what we’ve been predicting all along. Another extreme weather condition.”
    The damage to science has been incalculable, but the attack on common sense has been even worse. Try to imagine a government official telling an auditor that he needs more funding to make his department more efficient:
    “We think fossil fuels are bad, so we’ve been meeting to discuss how to eliminate them. Virtual meetings? Oh no, we like to get everyone face-to-face. Last year we flew 15,000 people to Peru. In fact, we had to build a temporary dorm just to house everyone. You think that was bad, you should have seen the meeting we had in Bali. So many planes that the airport shut down and some people had to fly to nearby airports and take boats to the island. You couldn’t get a limo to save your life. Cancun was even worse. Luckily when we held the meeting in Amsterdam we had an extreme weather event the PROVED global warming was real. What? No…not a heat wave, it was, um…snow.
    Have we considered smaller meetings? Oh, sure…we have those too. Just this year we all flew to Dubai, and there was a pre-meeting in Paris, and another big one in New York. But we’re still having the big meeting in Paris in November. How many flights this year? I dunno…,maybe 10,000 there and of course 10,000 return flights, just like we had for the smaller meetings. Yeah, 100,000 flights this year sounds about right. So, all we need now is about $100 Billion per year and we figure we’ll have this problem licked.”

    • Energy gluttons need the peasants to cut back on what they consume which is how the Medieval kings ruled the masses and…the church. Never practice what you preach is the ruling elite’s motto.

    • “So your saying that it’s “extremely calm”? I can almost hear the press release being written: “This is just what we’ve been predicting all along. Another extreme weather condition.””
      Believe it or not, some gov’t. agency is counting unusually temperatures cool in summer as evidence of “extreme” weather. That’s technically correct but misleading.
      “A truth that’s told with bad intent / Beats all the lies you can invent.”

  17. Global warming???
    “SHOCK WEATHER WARNING: Coldest winter for 50 YEARS set to bring MONTHS of heavy snow to UK”
    Sub-zero temperatures and violent snow storms could hit as soon as late October as a freak ocean cooling in the Atlantic threatens to trigger a historic, nationwide whiteout. Emergency services have been warned to prepare for a repeat of the devastating 1962/63 winter which saw rivers and lakes freeze over across Britain.
    The shock warnings have also sparked fears Britain could face fuel and food shortages as roads and transport networks grind to a halt.Sub-zero temperatures and violent snow storms could hit as soon as late October as a freak ocean cooling in the Atlantic threatens to trigger a historic, nationwide whiteout.
    Emergency services have been warned to prepare for a repeat of the devastating 1962/63 winter which saw rivers and lakes freeze over across Britain. The shock warnings have also sparked fears Britain could face fuel and food shortages as roads and transport networks grind to a halt.
    http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/604619/Long-range-weather-forecast-Britain-cold-winter-2015-arctic-snow-freeze
    Freak ocean cooling, eh!

    • Fret,
      That was the severe winter which convinced Callendar that his 1938 hypothesis of global warming from man-made CO2 was false. Despite steadily rising CO2 after the War, the earth had cooled noticeably.
      Of course, he thought global warming was a good thing.

    • The above forecast should be understood as : mild and pleasant winter, warmer than average.
      Forecast from the last April for this summer:
      “Britain is set to have a three-month heatwave, according to predictions from the Met Office, which says the hottest-ever spring and summer could be on the way”.

      • If the Met were reliable as a counter-indicator, it would at least be of some use. As it is, it’s simply usually but not always wrong. Being no better than guessing isn’t good enough.

    • Fret
      The source – the (London) Daily Express is thought of by some as a supermarket Tabloid.
      A milli-smidgen better that (photoshopped) ‘Bus sighted on Moon’, followed a month later with ‘Bus vanishes from Moon’ – with original un-photoshopped picture . . . .
      reliability – not high.
      Auto – really not expecting to get the snow-shoes out this October in London.

      • “Tabloids” in the UK press are not the same as American supermarket tabloids. In fact, I think you can often get a better idea of what’s happening in the UK from the tabloids (like the Express or the Mail) than you can from the “quality” newspapers.

  18. See global warming is killing hurricanes. All you murderous CO2 expellers are killing hurricanes. Damn you wattsupwiththat.com. lol.

  19. The altitude of Addis Ababa is 2,326 metres (7631 feet) and not 10,000 feet. The rainy season includes July, August and some of September. Addis Ababa is in the Northern hemisphere and so it is now ‘summer’ not ‘winter’ although being near the Equator (+9°1′48″N 38°44′24″E), the terms wet and dry seasons are more appropriate. If the rains fail, it gets hot, but usually it is hottest in Daliol (Elevation -130 metres below sea level) in the Afar Depression. Record high in Addis Ababa is 32 C. Daliol’s average annual temperature is 35°C and reaches 48°C at times.

    • ntesdorf – Good comment on Addis et al. I used to work there from time to time. Human adaptation is an interesting thing. In December I used to walk around Addis in a T shirt while the locals were often dressed in winter jackets. They are used to the warmer temperatures while those of us from more northern climes (Canada in my case) are used to colder temperatures and find the Addis temperature quite comfortable in comparison. Did work from the Red Sea to the Kenyan border, from Somalia to the Egyptian border (when safety permitted), Lots of water projects and some sanitation. The Rift Valley is a beautiful place. Mostly good memories.

      • The Rift Valley is probably our ancient homeland, although recent discoveries in South Africa might challenge that view. Depends upon their dating.
        What is known is that chimps and gorillas occur to the west of the Rift and hominids to the east.

  20. I haven’t seen a decent hurricane swell in 5 years. We used to have a good hurricane swell for surfing twice a year growing up in the 80s and 90s. I remember hurricane felix and eduardo with huge mid atlantic waves. The starving east coast surfers starve some more .Maybe october will turn on.

  21. The sun has been pretty quiet for the last couple of weeks, too.
    No bad “space weather” and not so much terrestrial weather.
    And WattsUpWithThat is still rolling.
    Gotta be good.

      • Ap is the name for a measurement of changes in the geomagnetic that are caused by solar wind bursts.
        The solar wind bursts are caused by coronal holes (primary cause) and sunspots. Note there are almost no sunspots now on the surface of the sun but there are a continual stream of coronal holes which is the reason for the sudden increase in the AP. Blue graph at the bottom of the above attached graph.
        The solar wind bursts create a space charge differential in the earth’s ionosphere which in turn cause a current flow at high latitude regions on the planet and at the equator.
        The current flow cause changes in cloud amount and cloud properties at both locations that cause warming.The mechanism by which solar wind bursts affect planetary cloud cover is called electroscavenging.
        I believe based on past correlation that the reason for the current El Niño is the sudden unset of solar wind bursts. The solar wind burst affect lasts for 5 to 6 days so what is required is a steady stream of wind bursts rather than one large massive wind burst. The coronal holes are long lasting (can last for months) and produce multiple wind bursts as the pass the earth.
        The coronal holes are starting to shrink and/or move to higher latitude regions of the sun where they no longer affect planetary climate. When they do the planet will cool significantly.
        When the solar cycle abruptly slows down there is an increase in wind speed, particularly over the ocean. This increase in wind speed shows up in the paleo record as an increased in dust deposited on the Greenland ice sheet. During an Heinrich event the amount of dust increases ten fold.
        I would assume the increase in wind speed over the ocean is the reason for the sudden drop in tropical storm formation.

  22. Yes, we are heading into a cooling cycle due to the sun. I saw on You Tube a video about how we could have another ice age and then at the very end of this educational video they had an astronomer say the sun causes ice ages/warming cycles and then spent ten minutes saying the astronomer was stupid and that we are all going to roast to death.
    I assume the ending was tacked on recently to the documentary and it contradicted everything the scientists said in the documentary. It was very unsettling.
    Here is a 1970’s video about the possibility of an ice age: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqsRD4HPtH0

  23. Valetina Zharkova reckons Londoners will be able to cross the Thames on ice skates in the not too distant future
    Well maybe she didn’t exactly but they might…
    https://www.ras.org.uk/news-and-press/2680-irregular-heartbeat-of-the-sun-driven-by-double-dynamo
    https://www.northumbria.ac.uk/about-us/our-staff/z/professor-valentina-zharkova/
    This’d be about the same time Peter Wadhams tell us Arctic summer ice will disappear
    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/sep/17/arctic-collapse-sea-ice
    Of course he might not be able to warn us in the future as he will have been assassinated by evil minions of the oil industry [ or maybe even Smersh]
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/globalwarming/11762680/Three-scientists-investigating-melting-Arctic-ice-may-have-been-assassinated-professor-claims.html

  24. What do you mean? This hurricane season has simply been horrendous. How can you claim Global Warming causes disastrous hurricanes when there are no hurricanes?
    Probably not an issue for Al Gore who can’t tell the difference between a masseuse and a hooker. For him more hurricanes, less hurricanes, it’s all bad, and the blame is CO2 and those who produce it.

  25. Let’s just switch to “Global warming is causing less moisture-laden, life-sustaining hurricane systems resulting in more severe droughts worldwide!”

  26. The unusually low number of storms is proof the climate is changing.
    Everyone knows warming at the poles reduces the temperature differentiation between the poles and the tropics, causing milder weather.
    There has been warming in the northern half of the Northern Hemisphere.
    There has not been warming in the southern half of the Southern Hemisphere, but that must be an error from bad thermometers, because the computer models said there was going to be a lot of warming there, causing Wall Street to be underwater.
    Who are you going to believe, smart computers, or dumb thermometers?

  27. Brace yourselves for this headline: “Severe Tropical Weather Dangerously Low! Global Warming Suspected Cause!”

  28. Classic global warming theory (it did warm prior to the plateau) says warming reduces violent storms because the poles warm more than the equator reducing the temp differential that powers storms. Tho they haven’t mentioned it lately. Instead, they say the opposite, for no apparent reason.

  29. I am very concerned about the rest of the season. Pressures have risen across northwest South America, which is not an el nino signal. In addition the Pacific has quieted immensely. The ITCZ has come to life as the easterlies are slowing in the Atlantic The N American pattern with major ridging through the lakes and northeast the coming 2-4 weeks along with boiling subtropical Atlantic SST/s as warm as I have ever seen them, ( see link below) mean I am not be crowing this season is over yet. I am very concerned that the ace the 2cnd half of the season doubles the 1st half. Lets hope they are all away from the coast, but the pattern is not unlike 2002, the EL NINO YEAR OF Isadore and Lili , both majors within 10 days of each other in the gulf and after Sept 20. Keep in mind that Camille, Alicia, Betsy, Belle Bob Andrew ( tail end) Flora, Audrey, The so called perfect storm which absorbed the Grace from that year in late October, among others did occur in el nno seasons.
    Where the warm water is http://models.weatherbell.com/sst/natl_cdas1_anom.png , the pattern of pressure rises over NW S america and over the northeast US in the means will focus the attention for trouble in areas that mean we should be concerned that as we deepen into the second half of the season, this is not over yet. The weakening of the Columbian Heat low is likely due to the cooling in parts of ENSO 1.2 but is also a seasonal effect, but by doing so weakens the trades and allows for extra convergence in the tropics. It was something taught to me by Gil Clark back in the 1980s and is something that I am watching now
    cheers

    • Your link doesn’t work.
      It’s difficult to fathom out exactly what point you are trying to make

  30. Living at Katrina’s Ground Zero ( the shore of Bay Saint Louis, MS) I take some interest in hurricanes.
    My understanding is that an El Nino event causes atmospheric circulation patterns that either block or shear the storms apart, and we have a strong El Nino going right now.
    I’m glad for the ‘no storms’ daily weather report.
    But…. the season’s not over…. Y’all keep it quiet for a few more weeks.
    Don’t put the jinx on us!

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