Throwback Thursday #5 – failed global warming driven hurricane predictions 10 years after Katrina

Oh the mighty media quoting the mighty scientists…have fallen flat on their face. Here’s a collection of failed predictions in the wake of Hurricane Katrina:

In 2006, CBS’s Hannah Storm Claims Katrina-like Storms Will Happen ‘All Along Our Atlantic and Gulf Coastlines.’ Just five days before Hurricane Katrina’s one year anniversary, CBS news anchor Hannah Storm featured climate alarmist Mike Tidwell on The Early Show to discuss his book, “The Ravaging Tide.” “I think the biggest lesson from Katrina a year later is that those same ingredients, you know, a city below sea level hit by a major hurricane, will be replicated by global warming all along our Atlantic and Gulf Coast lines,” Tidwell said on August 24, 2006. Tidwell then went on to claim that cities all along the coast would be underwater due to increased hurricane activity and intensity “unless we stop global warming.” In a 2009 Washington Post op-ed, Tidwell explained just how far he thought people should go to “stop global warming.” After comparing the current global warming problem to the civil rights movement of the 1960s, he insisted that “After years of delay and denial and green half-measures, we must legislate a stop to the burning of coal, oil and natural gas.”

‘No End In Sight’ For Big Hurricanes, CBS Says Less than a month after Katrina made landfall, CBS anchor Russ Mitchell predicted that there would be “continued high levels of hurricane activity and high levels of hurricane landfalls for the next decade or perhaps even longer.” “For years now, experts have been saying we’ve entered a period of increased hurricane activity that may last a long time.” Mitchell said on the Sept. 22, 2005 Early Show. Later in the broadcast he added, “since 1990, the number of big hurricanes in the Gulf is up again, and there’s no end in sight.” Now, a decade later that prediction looks laughable since there hasn’t been a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) to make landfall since October of 2005, when Hurricane Wilma struck Florida.

NBC Blames Global Warming for Stronger Hurricanes, Says It’s ‘A Trend That’s Likely To Continue’ In the weeks following Katrina, NBC turned to global warming as the hurricane’s cause. On September 18, 2005, Nightly News anchor John Seigenthaler said, “scientists studying the earth’s climate say we are experiencing stronger hurricanes in this century, a trend that’s likely to continue.” NBC’s chief science correspondent Robert Bazell continued, asking: “Was Katrina a warning of more terrible hurricanes in the next few years?” Bazell admitted “one storm cannot prove anything about climate change,” but claimed the projected ocean temperature rise would cause more severe storms through the end of the century. That NBC report included climatologist Stephen Schneider who said, “humans won’t make the storms, but we can make them a little stronger than they otherwise would have been.”

Looking back, it’s easy to see how wrong the networks were. In 2008, The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) responded to climate change assumptions about hurricanes saying, “There is nothing in the U.S. hurricane damage record that indicates global warming has caused a significant increase in destruction along our coasts.” As the years passed, the more obvious it was that fewer major hurricanes were hitting land. In April 2015, the American Geophysical Union reported that the United States has been in a nine year Atlantic hurricane landfall drought. A record low. AGU said, “Such a remarkable ‘hurricane drought’ has never been seen before – since records began in 1851 … the last major hurricane – of Category 3 or higher – to make landfall in the U.S. was Hurricane Wilma in 2005.” Research by meteorologists Anthony Watts and Ryan Maue, and environmental studies professor Roger Pielke, Jr. showed the same hurricane drought and an overall slump in tropical cyclone activity throughout the world. Chris Landsea, who is the Science and Operations Officer for the National Hurricane Center at NOAA, tweeted skeptically about a hurricane/climate change link in May 2015:

– See more at: http://newsbusters.org/blogs/business/alatheia-larsen/2015/08/26/katrina-anniversary-medias-10-most-outlandish-hurricane#sthash.seTHd7IP.dpuf

The reality is this:

major-hurricane-drought

And the number is still growing.


Throwback Thursday” is a regular WUWT feature highlighting past claims of climate doom made by scientists, pundits, and alarmist activists…that have not come true. It’s a bit of a take off from the “Throwback Thursday” on Facebook, where people post old pictures from their past, except here, it’s not just the age, it’s the fact that these lousy predictions really do deserve to be “thrown back” into the faces of the people that made them.

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Neville
August 27, 2015 3:40 pm

Good call Anthony. But the ABC’s science expert (?) Robyn Williams is in error by more than 99 metres in his SLR estimates following his 2007 interview with Andrew Bolt.
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/robyn_williams_wonders_why_we_dont_trust_his_science/
But a number of the recent PR SLR studies forecast just 6 or 7 inches of SLR by 2100. IOW not even as high as the SLR over the previous 100 years.
So where is their post 1950 hyped up CAGW?

Neville
Reply to  Neville
August 27, 2015 3:47 pm

And if the Royal Society believe in their precious models so much this RS graph shows no SLR problems for the next 300 years. This is the graph of all the models for SLR.
http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/roypta/364/1844/1709/F4.large.jpg

Michael Jankowski
Reply to  Neville
August 27, 2015 4:57 pm

It’s here http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/27/us/nasa-rising-sea-levels/
Expert: We’re ‘locked-in’ to 3 feet sea level rise
“…According to the latest from NASA, however, the projections the panel made for a rise in global sea levels of 1 to 3 feet may already be outdated.
According to Steven Nerem of the University of Colorado, we are “locked into at least 3 feet of sea level rise, and probably more…”

RayG
Reply to  Neville
August 27, 2015 9:45 pm

Are you sure that the ABC didn’t quote a different person, e.g., the American Robin Williams not Robyn Williams? Of course the ABC could have quoted Professor Irwin Corey, the world’s greatest expert. I suspect that either of them would have been more quote worthy.

Bear
August 27, 2015 4:47 pm

Straight line trend? Looks like a U shaped curve to me.

jaypan
August 27, 2015 5:01 pm

These hurricanes are just hiding somewhere (deep ocean?) to come back all at once one day and hit us sinners.

Rick Morcom
August 27, 2015 5:05 pm

Is there a similar graph for north-east pacific typhoons? The tropical cyclone page has a graph for global ACE (which seems pretty stable), as well as Australian land-falls, but it’s easy to get the impression that south-east Asia has had a lot of Cat 3+ storms in the last few years.

August 27, 2015 5:16 pm

Reblogged this on Climatism and commented:
Progressive media, CNN, BBC et al have blasted the airwaves with Katrina 10 year anniversary catastrophe footage.
On repeat, most likely in an attempt to make up for the *record* 10 year absence of any significant landfall Atlantic hurricane. This despite record rising ‘CO2’ and against all expert ‘scientific’ predictions.
A positive climate stat not mentioned anywhere by the leftist press.
Confirmation bias to push the global warming agenda is nothing new from climate change sympathetic media I guess …

PhotoPete
August 27, 2015 5:32 pm

I live in Pass Christian Mississippi. I am originally from New Orleans. In my nearly 60 years I’ve experienced a hurricane or two or three or four….lost count actually. I quite happy with the nearly 10 year break in major hurricane hitting the USA. 2004 and 2005 were some tough years for people living along the coast. I wonder if Al Gore is going to crawl out of his cave and make another fictional movie about how the world is going to come to an end because we all heat and cool our homes, drive around in CO2 belching cars, or even just exhale. If find it amusing that all the lies the global warming the sky is falling folks has not come to pass. Anyway, here is to another decade of no major hurricane landfalls.

Dawtgtomis
August 27, 2015 5:52 pm

All the hype after Katrina was to draw attention away from the failed response by FEMA and the fact that for the first time in this country’s history, military force was used on citizens instead of the national guard.

noloctd
Reply to  Dawtgtomis
August 27, 2015 6:22 pm

What on earth are you going on about?

MarkW
Reply to  Dawtgtomis
August 28, 2015 3:49 pm

There was no failure by FEMA. FEMA is required by law to be on site within 3 days after being requested by local authorities. They were on site after 2 days. Bush requested that the Democrat governor or the Democrat mayor make a formal request for aid prior to Katrina hitting. Both failed to do so.
The failure was 100% the result of state and local authorities.

August 27, 2015 6:05 pm

There is no accountability. Whether they are forecasting the next decade or projecting the next century. Whether they are predicting global temperatures, sea levels, crop yields, polar bear numbers, butterfly’s or whatever. You can say whatever you want, exaggerate, claim/show it’s worse than we thought, use assumptions, use theories, use models, there is no limit with regards to what you can find if you have a funded study and are creative.
Not only does this apply to projections going out for the next 100 years, you can even rewrite climate history so that it matches up with your belief system.
http://a-sceptical-mind.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/Comparison-charts.jpg
Incredible that increasing CO2, which is greening up the planet seems to be only causing bad weather and bad climate, hurting crop production, threatening so many creatures, destroying life, ruining human health.

Reply to  Mike Maguire
August 28, 2015 4:37 am

And of course this also pertains to hurricanes.

August 27, 2015 6:32 pm

I wouldn’t mind if they linked this trend to global warming and higher CO2 levels – as long as they made the point these should be credited for saving us from more hurricanes. You can’t blame extreme weather on CO2 unless you also credit good weather to CO2.

AJB
August 27, 2015 8:33 pm

Another kind of Throwback Thursday, comments entertaining:
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/aug/27/why-i-ate-a-roadkill-squirrel
Nutters always go to ground when the games nearly up. Bring on the ferrets. The sad twerp was even on Newsblight tonight frying a couple while whinging ad nausiam about meat production. Only to be told to get a move on and get off ASAP. A total hoot!

August 28, 2015 12:16 am

Thinking logically, if AGW primarily causes warming at poles then the temperature gradient between equator and poles will decrease in a warming world. This might be expected to reduce the energy in weather systems.
So a reduction in hurricanes would be consistent with a warming world.
But its not scary is it?

Arthur Clapham
August 28, 2015 1:17 am

My Father’s oft quoted ‘May God preserve us from expert’s’ in the 1950s still stands today!

Alx
August 28, 2015 3:22 am

climatologist Stephen Schneider who said, “humans won’t make the storms, but we can make them a little stronger than they otherwise would have been.”

Who knew that humans did not create storms, luckily we have climatologists like Stephen Schneider to remind us. Apparently though we can make them a “little” stronger. Did that mean storms with 100 MPH winds were no going to be 101 MPH? And how would you ever test the prediction “stronger than they otherwise would have been”? Who knows, like much of climate science, vague, meaningless statements are the order of the day.

willnitschke
August 28, 2015 3:37 am

General rule of thumb. In any field of endeavour when you see these words embedded in a sentence, “…in the future X will happen…” you can safely dismiss the claim as nonsense. The fact of the matter is that few crystal balls that actually work presently exist, and none for climate or economics.

August 28, 2015 4:55 am

Reblogged this on gottadobetterthanthis and commented:

I ask everyone to look at the facts. Examine the data.
The fact is, if climate is changing for the worse, the real world does not show it.
Good comments in this one. RGB’s comments are worthwhile.

August 28, 2015 6:39 am

“Good job Brownie, good job”. I wonder if CNN still has that photo opp of Bush and Brown in the hanger. Meanwhile, people were pleading for help on their rooftops. And the government had no information on the people at the convention center (not the superdome) when it was on every news channel in the country. They were actually sending rescue workers home.
All we need is for ONE hurricane this year, next year or the next to hit the US and it will prove them right. A 100% increase in hurricane activity. I can see the headlines now. Underlying this dramatic increase in hurricane activity will be the root cause: Man made global warming .

MarkW
Reply to  rishrac
August 28, 2015 3:52 pm

FEMA did it’s job, and did it well.
It was the local and state authorities who failed to do there jobs.
It has always been the job of state and local authorities to manage for the first 2 to 3 days after a disaster hits. If you want to blame someone, blame mayor Nagin for failing to use the hundreds of school buses he had available to him to get those people out of low lying areas.

Steve Oregon
August 28, 2015 7:08 am

Fresh junk………..
NASA says dramatic sea-level rise is ‘locked in,’ West Coast could take hit in next 20 years
http://www.oregonlive.com/today/index.ssf/2015/08/nasa_says_dramatic_sea-level_r.html#incart_river

Reply to  Steve Oregon
August 28, 2015 7:28 am

Overlooked by many but clearly adding to sea level is groundwater extraction……….that makes it into the oceans.
http://www.waterworld.com/articles/wwi/print/volume-25/issue-5/groundwater-development-flow-modeling/groundwater-depletion-linked-to-rising.html

August 28, 2015 10:28 am

The blue line looks like a border line. This article needs a sentence headline saying what the graph says in order to make it worth sharing with the many who lack savvy for graphs.

MarkW
August 28, 2015 10:49 am

The latest projections have Erica as a tropical storm when it makes landfall in Florida. It’s not projected to become a hurricane at any point.
The drought of land falling hurricanes continues.

Reply to  MarkW
August 28, 2015 11:03 am

Judging by numbers on this chart
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst.gif
lots more of energy to be picked up in the Gulf. Its SST is 32.9C just a fraction behind the Arabian sea (off Pakistan’s coast) currently the world’s highest at 33C.

ren
Reply to  MarkW
August 29, 2015 2:40 am

Florida due to tropical storm is threatened by flooding.

Steve A
August 28, 2015 2:40 pm

What ever happened to Ryan Maue’s contributions to this site?

Lady Gaiagaia
August 28, 2015 3:47 pm
Lady Gaiagaia
Reply to  Lady Gaiagaia
August 28, 2015 3:53 pm

Notable hurricanes from the depths of the LIA:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricanes_in_the_17th_century
Among the most famous are the storm that inspired Shakespeare’s Tempest, which also almost wiped out the Virginia colony, and the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635, soon followed by another almost as great.

Lady Gaiagaia
Reply to  Lady Gaiagaia
August 28, 2015 3:55 pm

And in the next, still cold century:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Storm_of_1703

RACookPE1978
Editor
Reply to  Lady Gaiagaia
August 28, 2015 4:01 pm

The (few) survivors of the many Spanish gold fleet vessels that sunk across the Caribbean during those years between 1492 and 1780 can also attest to the frequency and severity of hurricanes.

Lady Gaiagaia
Reply to  Lady Gaiagaia
August 28, 2015 4:06 pm

True.
Any scientific, dispassionate, non-polemical reading of Atlantic storm history would conclude, as physics would suggest, that a colder planet is a windier planet.
The highest wind speeds in the solar system occur on the coldest planets, the colder, the windier. Winds are worse during glacial intervals than interglacial.
In the 1970s, “extreme weather” was blamed (correctly) on the Big Chill between 1945 and the late ’70s.

August 29, 2015 2:39 am

Don’t predict catastrophe, but on the other hand don’t predict the absence of serious problems either. I wonder if anyone predicted a rebound in Arctic ice?

ren
August 29, 2015 2:28 pm

The cyclone is coming to Hawaii.comment image