Claim: Global warming makes frost damage worse

Crops_damage_frost

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

The Australian CSIRO has claimed that global warming increases both the incidence of frost, and the amount of damage frost causes to crops.

According to the CSIRO;

University of Queensland research scientist, Dr Jack Christopher, said climate modelling of 60 years’ worth of data has shown that while average temperatures have been increasing, the incidence and impact of frost has also increased during that period.

“One of the main factors causing that is the fact that the plants are actually growing a lot quicker in the warmer weather, so that when they’re planted at what we think is the correct time, they’re actually flowering too soon and are flowering during a much higher frost risk period than was intended,” he said.

Frost damage costs Australian agriculture millions of dollars each year due to reduced yield.

“On average, we’re losing around 10 per cent of the crop nationally, so that’s a huge loss in terms of yield and in terms of dollars,” Dr Christopher said.

“So if we’ve got 24 million tonnes of wheat in an average year, it may be $250 a tonne, that might be $6 billion worth of wheat, so 10 per cent of that is $600 million in an average year, so it’s a huge loss.”

Read more: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-21/qch-frost-field-trial/6715106

The abstract of the study;

Radiant spring frosts occurring during reproductive developmental stages can result in catastrophic yield loss for wheat producers. To avoid frost during susceptible heading stages, wheat crops are often sown later than is optimal for maximum yield given seasonal rainfall limitations, for example. To better understand the spatial and temporal variability of frost, occurrence and impact of frost events on rainfed wheat production was estimated across the Australian wheatbelt using 0.05° gridded weather datasets. Current genotypes are assumed to be sensitive at Stevenson-screen temperatures lower than 0°C, and simulated yield outcomes at 60 key locations were compared to those for virtual genotypes with different levels of frost tolerance for early-, mid- and late- maturity types and a wide range of sowing dates. No significant trend in frost occurrence over time was observed in most parts of the Australian wheatbelt over the last 57 years. However, more frost events, later last frost day and a significant increase in frost impact on yield was estimated in certain areas, in particular in the South-East and several parts of the West. Across Australia, we found that mean yield could be improved by between 10% and 20% on average if frost tolerant lines were available. Considering frost seasons only, the mean yield could be improved by 50 to %100 by frost tolerance. Across all seasons for the wheatbelt, yield increases resulted from (1) reduced frost damage (ca. 10% improvement) and (2) the ability to use earlier sowing dates to increase yield potential (additional 10% improvement in East). Simulations indicate that genotypes with an improved frost tolerance of 1°C lower than the 0°C reference would provide substantial benefit in most wheat production areas. Greater tolerance ((to 3°C lower temperatures) would provide further benefits in the eastern cropping regions but not in the west. Our results indicate that breeding for a level of reproductive frost tolerance that is at least 1°C lower than present should remain a priority for the Australian wheat industry, despite an average warming trend in the winter season.

Read more: https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/pub?pid=csiro:EP149710

I personally find it fascinating that “global warming” is now supposed to cause more frequent frosts, later in the growing season, in susceptible areas. Having said that, in my opinion, an estimation model built upon the kind of grossly adjusted temperature data Australia produces, is not a very compelling chain of evidence upon which to base a conclusion.

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159 thoughts on “Claim: Global warming makes frost damage worse

    • Now now. You’re asking them to do what homo sapiens have been doing since the first time they purposely stuck a seed into the ground to grow something. Adapt. No, now we must spend trillions of dollars to eventually be forced to…..adapt again.

    • A lot of calculations showing crop losses in amounts and in dollars, but they neglect to mention that overall, on a worldwide basis, crop yields are at or very near record high values, and are increasing steadily, year over year.
      And these record yields hold on a number of different and separate metrics, such as total tonnage, tonnage per acre, tonnage per person, tonnage per unit of raw material input.
      In short, agriculture is doing an amazing job of producing vast amounts of food, easily and efficiently.
      Fewer people than ever are involved in food production, and the amount of calories per person which the world has never been higher.
      And this is occurring without us really trying, in many vast area.
      Think of all of the 100% unproductive land which is tied up in lawns and landscaping, and paved over for transportation and other purposes.
      A large amount of this agriculturally unproductive acreage would be prime farmland.
      Seriously, we have plenty of food, even with one hand tied behind our backs by onerous, nonsensical and burdensome government regulations and rules.
      In some places, people are still being paid NOT to produce food!
      And how many of the billions of backyard trees in the US and around the world are easily grown fruit trees?
      If everyone had fruit trees in their yard, landscape or streetscape, and rooftop and back yard gardens wherever possible, I suspect we could easily double food production for certain crops such as veggies, fruits, nuts, and other high value crops. And do so with almost no addition inputs over what is being used to grow our fancy lawns and pretty flowers.
      I love fancy lawns and pretty flowers, but would mow them all bare and plant food if it was required to feed people.
      To whine and moan about lost food production, or to listen to such from people who are not even growers, is a little much. Of course frost bites into yields every now and then…the globe is cooling while the people entrusted to inform us about such things are lying through their BIG, FAT, CROOKED, LYING teeth!
      if everyone who was planting always waited until all chance of frost had passed, yields and production would be far lower, and this is for the simple reason that growers are a savvy bunch, and know that a ten percent chance of a late frost is well worth the risk of getting in an early crop and getting the top dollar that goes to the ones with the first peaches or watermelons of the season, or planting wheat and corn as soon as the possible rather than risk worsening conditions that may delay planting past the optimum date.
      This story is nonsense from the perspective of an informed person.

      • “This story is nonsense from the perspective of an informed person”
        Then it’s definitely from the GW/CC/whatever usual suspects.

      • Menicholas, a superb rant sir! As a cherry grower in New Zealand, I heartily agree with your sentiments.

      • It’s actually the result of frost protection – water sprinklers above the trees start up automatically when temperatures drop low enough. The water, and subsequent ice, proects the fruitlets from frostbite.

    • May not actually work. Last night, in Wyoming, my pumpkin plants were killed by frost. My zucchinis may not survive either. It’s August 23. Planting later will only work if fall frosts don’t become earlier. (Or your local weather forecaster could actually predict the low accurately.)
      This is the earliest frost in the 30 years I’ve been gardening. Short season crops help, but there’s only so much one can do if it’s cold and wet through June so plants sprout slowly and then the weather drops below freezing before September.
      (I don’t think global warming had anything to do with this, of course. It just happened.)

  1. As an ex farmer in a soft fruit growing region frosts have and are still a real threat. Many producers have in the past 25 -30 years switched to later blooming (and so later ripening fruits. Installed (OH I hate this one) “wind mills” with propane heaters at their base to move warmed air around or they can use irrigation to protect their early ( tender) shoots and blossoms. This is nothing new and as I said has been done for decades. Farmers calculate this in advance and either buy insurance for it or just charge a pennies /lbs more to make for the lost. Gee don’t they teach economics these days?
    It kinda looks like farmers are smarter and better informed than the “educated” so called “scientists?”.Farmers in both the USA, Canada and all other wheat (fruit) growing areas have done this for DECADES ( sorry for the scream but it is just so frustrating).

    • Once again we see that the requirement to publish a story with even any peripheral connection to climate science is a complete lack of accurate knowledge, no information whatsoever about historical trends and the accumulated knowledge base of past years.
      In other words, one must be, apparently, a complete ignoramus, concentrate exclusively on some imaginary detriment, ignore any good news or positive view on anything…and just be crazy and stupid to boot.

    • Winters in the wheat growing areas of Canada routinely real 40 below zero (in both C and F). Most of Canada is so cold we can only grow rocks and ice. Yet we produce about the same amount of wheat as Australia.
      So now we hear that as Australia gets warmer, old Jack Frost is going to cause more damage because the farmers of Australia are too stupid to adjust their growing patters to take advantage of the changing climate.
      It sounds like the academics of Australia are too stupid to consider that Farmers know a lot more about climate than climate scientists know about growing wheat.

      • Is ferdberple suggesting that Australian farmers can learn from Canadian farmers without the UN approving? He will be attacked by the warmists for it. Doubt he will care.
        He is leaving out the truth that seed companies can and will provide better adapted seed. If he had time and space I would bet he could provide effective guidance to those Australian farmers. Only the “Scientists” paid by the Statists can ignore human intelligence and adaptability. He, and most on this site know farmers will do better than their Governments in producing crops. Heck, the farmers predict growing conditions better as well.

    • I attended Pomona College during the Global Cooling phase (Class of ’69), and the orange growers were still allowed to use smudge pots to blanket the fruit in smoke. I think we might call that an “adaptation”.

  2. The odds are that what we can expect as a result of global warming is to see more
    of this pattern of extreme cold. – – – Dr. John Holdren, The White House – 1/8/2014

    • Global Warming causes cooling when it isn’t causing warming.
      It’s like, you know, common, like, sense, like, for sure, you know.

    • steve,
      Yes, he really did say this. Here’s the video:
      http://www.motherjones.com/blue-marble/2014/01/john-holdren-video-polar-vortex
      Of course this video only came out AFTER the eastern USA was hit with long lasting extreme cold. It’s called damage control and changing the prediction to line up with what already happened and tell people that your theory predicts it.
      If meteorologists could always tell you about yesterday’s weather today and call it a prediction, they would also never be wrong.
      Next time we have a warm Winter, that too will be from global warming. No way to be wrong is there.

  3. So plants are growing better and that means they blossom earlier. They blossom when the frosts are still probable.
    That sounds like a challenge but also a great opportunity.
    Growing things quicker is a good thing.

    • Australia recently had two springs of frost damage to crops in the SE. It looks like it might be even more severe this spring so they’re getting in early(?) with the BS.
      Strange, the air should be more humid and soil wetter after winter (floods are greater in Indonesia so I assume winters are also wetter in Aus because of global warming) with global climate warmer so why the frost?

      • yeah some frost in wimmera more just damn cold and not anywhere near as wet as we would like by this time of year. Gippslands couple hundred K away n thats soggy as! . indonesia and Aus dont correlate.
        I see north Koreas got drought. dunno bout other spots nthward.
        your la nina means we get dry. Qld is dry n looking grim in many areas I hear.
        beef prices up and a lot sold off due to the low feed/water upcoming.
        so when breeders are eaten restocking gets expensive and takes 2/3yrs to recover the numbers.
        as for the CSIRO garbage above..loopaper..models and assumptons and not any actual reality
        usual drivel their climatedept spews.
        embarrassing after the really good/useful things theyve done prior.
        a LONG time prior sadly.

      • Let me ask Robert…is there food on the store shelves?
        Is it affordable?
        Is there any item at all which is simply unavailable due to some unfortunate and unseasonable weather in some articular place?
        I suspect not, as there has never been any time or place with exactly average weather and exactly average growing seasons and no losses from such things as frost, excess of not enough rain, etc.
        If nothing was ever lost to frost, it means everyone wasted time in the spring.

      • I wasn’t referring to any correlation between Aus and indonesia, Oz, just referring to the stupidity that Indonesia will get larger downpours because of GW; the general stupidity that anything unusual that happens can be a retrospective prediction of GW.

  4. Claptrap. It was clean air that resulted from engineering developments like electrostatic precipitators and sulphur scrubbers that increases the temperature range, as demonstrated albeit by practical crude mechanical rather than computer modelled methods but clearly accurate as tested against reality.

    • Simpler even…a ten percent risk of frost is well worth the risk. The other 90% is produced earlier than it would be if all risk had passed.
      This allows greater productivity, not less.
      Farmers are not stupid, they are very smart. People who take some risk make greater profit.

      • it isn’t productivity that they are after… mid or late season crops are more productive than early ones. It is the price premium for being first tomarket that drives earlier varieties and the added risk of frost damage… a 10% loss is pretty small compared to doubling your price by being the first ones on the shelf.

  5. Why so skeptical? GW causes everything – frost just completed the bingo card. Anyhow, it’s logical:
    – where is most exposed to GW? Variously Arctic / Antarctica / Alaska / Siberian Tundra / Greenland.
    – and where gets the most frost??
    QED.

    • Good point Andrew.
      The “man in the street” needs to hear over and over how “Climate Change” is man-made global warming and how man-made global warming causes everything from colder winters to restless leg syndrome. (no, I saw that one really)
      We know instinctively that a theory that explains everything, explains nothing. In a way, the alarmists are helping us out by this utter heifer dust.

  6. The paper says:
    “Over the last century, mean temperatures in Australia have been increasing on average by 0.09 °C per decade (Murphy and Timbal, 2008). While frost events vary spatially and from season to season across the wheatbelt (Stone et al., 1996; Alexander et al., 2006; Crimp et al., 2015), more hot days and fewer cold days are predicted for future climates (Stone et al., 1996; Collins et al., 2000). However, while slightly counter-intuitive, global warming may increase the risk of frost by (i) accelerating wheat phenology, so that heading time occurs earlier in spring; or (ii) increasing the frequency of clear nights during drought (Gu et al., 2008; Zheng et al., 2012).”

    • , mean temperatures in Australia have been increasing on average by 0.09 °C per decade
      Wake me when it’s time to panic

      • “mean temperatures in Australia have been increasing on average by 0.09 °C per decade”
        and a significant proportion of that is due to homogenisation.

    • Yeh, wut.

      However, while slightly counter-intuitive, global warming may increase the risk of frost by (i) accelerating wheat phenology, so that heading time occurs earlier in spring; or (ii) increasing the frequency of clear nights during drought

      The notion (i) can only occur if wheat heading is a sufficient or necessary cause of frost. Do I need explain to anyone, on any side of the climate debate, how over the top moronic this condition is?
      As a lesser consideration, if the CAGW notion is that increasing CO2, increases temp, which increases evap of H2O, which increases H2O as a GHG, which starts all over again eating its own tail then: No. It is not possible that the frost would increase due to more clear nights during a drought. Necessarily there will be greater humidity than otherwise. Well mixed, shaken not stirred, and all the standard gas concentration caveats used in modelling excursions.
      But then, we can hardly ding the paper for not talking about CAGW as it is talking about how wheat causes winter. Thank goodness that we have peer reviewers to prevent such things from being released in respectable scientific journals.

      • They meant, of course, frost damage. As they point out at some length, the generally warmer winter leads to faster growth, making the wheat vulnerable (heading) earlier, when frost is still possible.

      • But did they calculate this increased risk of frost damage vs increased and earlier production by not waiting, or increased yields due to warmer weather?
        And have they actually documented increases in frost, or are these modelled results and speculation?
        I am noting the words “may” and “predicted”, but the only statistical data seems to be an increase in temps during a period of time in which yields have exploded to levels never even dreamed of in decades past.
        In other words, so called experts have been predicting bad news in the food production segment for a very long time, and every such prognostication of gloom or doom has been exactly the opposite of what has subsequently occurred.
        Why should anyone bet on people who are batting zero?

      • In agriculture a frost which reduces crop volumes is considered by prudent well located farmers to be a bonus as it lifts prices of produce very dramatically at times.
        should we see CAGW as a risk as the elevated production due to CO2 enrichment is increasing yields and hence prices are forced lower.
        Should they get a subsidy to compensate?
        the chap who wrote this drivel is stuck in the publish or perish loop.

      • They are postulating increased incidence of dry air (plus the other condition needed for frost to form…lack of wind), and no tendency or radiational cooling to be slowed.
        But what about water vapor feedback, and decreased ate of radiational cooling?
        Hard to keep all the facts in ones head at once when so many lies are being juggled.
        The more I think about this, the more ridiculous it becomes.
        This is really “science” at it’s worst.

  7. ABC Rural are normally a sober lot and I see this as a plea for CSIRO funding to study frost resistance.
    Farmers(wheat, I believe) should not be too greedy and hold off planting until it is safe. Although the variety still counts “Varieties suited for sowing in NSW range in maturity from winter to early spring types. This presents the opportunity to plant wheat crops from late March until the end of June and still have the crop flowering when risks of frost and heat stress are acceptable. Varieties differ in their ability to achieve high yield from different sowing times.” from http://www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/agriculture/broadacre/winter-crops/winter-cereals/yield-response This winter planting is risky business
    Frost areas are known http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/climate_averages/frost/index.jsp?period=an&thold=lt2deg#maps the 2deg minimum registered on the map(assuming a Stevenson screen) should translate to 0deg on the ground.
    There is a pdf from the NSW DPI that says “Frost damage is a major consideration and the
    risk cannot be eliminated entirely; therefore the
    potential for higher yields from earlier sowings
    needs to be balanced against the risk of frost damage
    at flowering. There are two ways of doing this:
    1.In areas where the risk of frost is high, sow later.
    than the suggested optimum sowing period.
    As a rule of thumb, three days difference at
    planting makes one day difference at heading.
    2.Change varieties. Use maturity differences to have the
    crop flowering at a time when frost risk is acceptable.”
    i.e. don’t be too greedy….

    • “So if we’ve got 24 million tonnes of wheat in an average year,” – Dr Christopher thinks this is normal. I remember the days when we got about 16 million tonnes, and 18 million tonnes was a bumper year and there were transport difficulties in hauling all the extra wheat to the ports. Seems to me that increased CO2 may just possibly have something to do with the 50% greater crops.
      But surely, wheat is a grass, and I know from my lawn that it grows very slowly in winter. A frost – we dont get them up here but we did in Canberra – turns lawns brown, but a few days of spring warmth and they come back green and shooting up to make weekly mowing essential. So a late frost does little damage to grass, and should do little damage to wheat. To cherries, yes, damage caused by the ice splitting them apart. But those in the photo look like they have been specially prepared to illustrate the article.

    • Dudley.
      I believe the damage to the wheat is during the flowering period of the wheat. If frost damages the flowers, that kills the production. So, if you plant on the wrong days and, later, if a frost hits the crop when the wheat is flowering, you lose a lot of your crop.
      D

    • Dudley, it is not frost which splits cherries, it is rain. The photo in the article has been taken after overhead sprinklers have been going for a few hours to protect the fruitlets from frostbite. Standard practice with stonefruit, which grow best in areas of hot summers and frosty winters. However one of the side effects of spraying water over stonefruit trees when it is cold is the promotion of a bacteria which thrived in cold wet conditions and caused bacterial blast (canker) which causes die-back of the sprigs and cracking and dying of the bark. This is why I have elected not to install overhead sprinklers over my cherry orchard. Some frost damage thins the crop, but the remaining cherries grow bigger as a result.

  8. Hot weather in Europe mean frost in the winter and the result of a weak Atlantic. Wind in the Atlantic is weak and low temperature. There is less water vapor over the land.

    • Srga, so would those Florida Orange farmer’s bonfires be ‘fossil fuelled’ by wood? So, it’s their fault we’re in the grip of catastrophe then. Sorted.

      • Just to throw a couple random Florida observations.
        Remembering correctly there were a couple of hard freeze years in the 80’s. So early attempts of recovering the oranges got wiped out. My opinion is rising land prices then made it more profitable to sell the land for subdivisions rather than more risky farming.
        Remember a hard freeze was causal, in part, to the Challenger disaster.
        Haven’t had a memorable freeze or snow dust since the later 90’s.
        Haven’t had any major spring hail storm outbreaks since the 80-90 time frame.
        Before interstates and mega parks there was an old attraction called the Citrus Tower. Anymore you’d be hard pressed to see a “citrus” from the tower. More appropriately now it should be Subdivision Tower; though they make a cool huge Christmas tree every year.
        Won’t make any claim about changing climate; I think it’s just weather. I will say I despise when Florida temperature is colder than Barrow Alaska. Tell the Canucks that we’re tired of trying to warm their air.

      • There are still groves along US 27, Taz. South of I-4, citrus is doing fine. And the highland ridge is prime for citrus because it is so well drained.
        By the way, an interesting quirk of paleoclimatology is what caused the formation of that ridge.

      • My mistake, I was thinking that tower was much further south. I have driven past it so many times…
        Anyway, there are still some groves even up near Tavares and certain other favorable locations.

    • Patrick, so would those New Zealand Wairarapa farmer’s helicopters be ‘fossil powered’ by aviation fuel? So, it’s their fault we’re in the grip of catastrophe then. Sorted.

    • Florida orange farmers used to light bonfires in the groves to beat frosts.

      I live in a place in central Florida called Orlando. It is in a county called Orange County. When I was young, there was commercial orange groves all over the county — and all over central Florida. Then in the 70s it got so cold in winters that the freezes killed off most of the commercial orange groves.
      No one thinks now that central Florida is a place where oranges can be grown successfully because sooner or later the freezes will destroy the grove. Now we have theme parks for the families and depend on tourism to fuel our economy.
      There was an idiot named something-or-the-other Mann who claimed that the temperatures of the 20th century was one of increasing warmth the whole time. Well, the facts of agriculture in central Florida are that he was spinning a grant-chasing lie.

      • ark, ever wonder why Citrus County is on the West coast north of Hernando County?
        It is way too cold there now.
        Florida has had a boom and bust citrus industry for almost 150 years,
        The worst freezes were back in the 1890’s
        But things came back after several decades with no bad freezes.
        The really bad ones for the citrus in Central and West Central Florida occurred in the 1980’s.
        There were freezes that lasted so long, and/or got so cold, and/or were so windy that the usual protection measures failed.
        I moved to Tampa in 1982 for college, and in 1984 we bought some land in Pasco and started building the plant nursery. I used to go to Apopka a few times a month to buy and sell plants, and obtain supplies, as that town north of Orlando was and still sort of is a central hub for the foliage and support industries.
        I vividly recall on SR50 just west of Orlando, there were huge groves on both sides of the road stretching off into the distance. The trees were so old and tall they had to cut the tops or the harvesters could not reach them, and the carved v-shaped canyons between the rows to allow machines to get in.
        Those trees, and others all the way to Tampa, were decades old. They mostly used icing them with sprinklers to prevent freeze damage (It takes 4 hours below 28 to damage citrus. Cold but not too cold actually makes for the best fruit with the highest sugar content.)
        I will never forget the smell of several counties worth of fruit and trees all rotting after cold killed trees warmed up in the ensuing days and weeks.
        There are still citrus grower up there, but it is a more careful and selective thing.

    • Orange growers have and still do deploy many strategies to help ensure the best yields and highest profits.
      Buying land on the south side of lakes, in warmer pockets, in certain topographical terrain types where cold air is less likely to settle, pumping water to protect trees and fruit, grove heaters, wind machines to break up inversions, earlier harvested varieties, relocating south and towards the coasts…
      It is a continuous process.
      The industry has had to adapt to changing costs, rules, climatic variations, and other factors.
      Florida is not the sparsely populated place it used to be, so burning tires is no longer a good idea when there are housing developments next door, even if the EPA did not frown on such.
      Plus the acreage planted is higher than ever, and is largely being done by agribusiness corporations and less so by family growers than in the past.

  9. Anything to do with climate that is spat out of the alarmist CSIRO should laughed at, serious side splitting laugh!! The CSIRO is the eternal joke that is the climate alarmist propaganda machine.
    And before it became the CSIRO it was called CSRO and in 1935 and were involved in the introduction of the cane toad in Qld along with the Qld Govn’t and Brisbane Sugar Company. CSRO also wanted to introduce the European toad in the rest of the country.
    So the CSIRO can still their modelling with 60’s years of data can be stuffed where the sun don’t sine.
    Ah, of course, it’s all in the run up to Paris next month.

      • Patrick August 22, 2015 at 3:52 pm
        Nick you are wrong. The CSRO BECAME the CSIRO. Read up on actual factual history.

        According to the CSIRO itself it was originally the CSIR from 1926, it was renamed the CSIRO in 1949, so Nick appears to be correct.

      • You are right. It was re-named to CSIRO…but it is was still the same organisation in 1935 when the toads were introduced. I just got the name wrong. You do know Govn’t agencies do change their names rather frequently, esp in Australia? I currently work for the NSW Govn’t and many agencies have changed their names many times, but are still the same agency, with the same people doing the same jobs.
        I cannot seem to find the article which supports my claim, but I am sure I posted it here at WUWT before but now I don’t seem to be able to do a search at WUWT.

    • hey:-0 you forgot the toads were brought in to kill the beetles
      they brought in to eat the cactus,
      that then got out of hand..as had the cactus.
      hence the toads…whoopsie!
      and they killed the cactus with arsenic n kero sprayed on..didnt do the workers using it much good longterm either.

      • No, be fair. The Cactoblastis moth (or its grubs) DID save the cattle industry in Australia. It’s one of the most successful biological control methods ever introduced into Australia. The cane toad and its grubs are another matter. On the other had, cane toads were the greatest animals for vivisection experiments I ever came across (I did my biology degree in North Queensland) 🙂

  10. So, by clever deduction, when our planet enters a ‘global cooling’ phase, plants would be more susceptible to heat damage? Got it.

  11. The sentence beginning “University of Queensland….” told me all I need to know.
    They breed clowns.

  12. If winters are supposed to become ‘warmer, wetter, shorter,’ then WHY would the last frost dates not also retreat?

    • Zactly. Plants grow to sexual maturity quicker, because it’s warmer, yet there is no shift in frost dates. It appears the frost doesn’t know it’s warmer.
      I live in peach country. Late frosts happen.

    • If winters are supposed to become warmer, cooler, wetter, drier, shorter, and longer, then WHY would the last frost dates not also retreat?
      There, fixed it for ya.
      🙂

  13. So does this mean my poverty will actually make me wealthier? Just like GW Im waiting to experience the effects.

  14. “One of the main factors causing that is the fact that the plants are actually growing a lot quicker in the warmer weather, so that when they’re planted at what we think is the correct time, they’re actually flowering too soon and are flowering during a much higher frost risk period than was intended”
    Um, no. They’re blooming at the right time, but we’re getting later frosts and snow. For two years in a row there’s been Mother’s Day snow storms in Nebraska and South Dakota. Iowa had a May snow storm and well below freezing temps and gardens and crops had to be replanted. It’s not that plants are growing quicker – heck, they’re having a hard time getting out of the ground – and we’re having later snows (and earlier snows as well – last year Nebraska had snow in September; South Dakota was hit with 40+ inches of snow in October. Winters are getting shorter? HA!

  15. ‘knock knock whose there’
    ‘a man walked into a bar’
    are classic openings to jokes and to these I think we can add ‘climate modelling says’ although in this case its a that type sick joke
    That ‘global warming’ is also claimed to cause more frost , is of course exactly what you expect from a ‘science’ that can offer no means to disprove its claims becasue it claims ‘anything ‘ is proof of them even when it undermines those claims .

    • Add: “in a warming world,…….” “As Temperatures rise………” “With it increase in extreme weather…….” “As coastal areas become inundated…….”
      Each and every one of these being either calculated outright or “forecast” based on the former. What amazes me is that these people believe their own story. To say they understand it would be to imply they were scientific about it….which, I’m afraid, they were not.

    • “It would not be inconsistent with” could be the foundation of many a punch line, as well.

  16. From the bolded text it seems there are more later frosts, indicating cooling over the 57 years.
    “…they’re actually flowering too soon and are flowering during a much higher frost risk period than was intended,” he said.”
    Intended by whom??

  17. There could be a simple explanation, the historic temperature data have been well and truly fiddled adjusted and homogenised whereas frost records are yet to have that honour?

  18. Why does the mainstream media support ACC when it is clearly in contrast with its global agenda?

  19. OK then. This is just more utter heifer dust by some jerk academic types who lie at the drop of a grant dollar.
    People were able to plant crops and survive all over the northern hemisphere during the little ice age and during the much warmer 30s/40s. Nothing going on now is unusual in the least. Heck, it was way colder during the 70s than now. I personally saw snow in Sanford Florida. (central Florida USA)
    But the real craziness is the meme that warmer makes it hotter and colder makes it hotter. Nothing ever makes it colder for some reason. What is up with the lying academics and their lapdogs in the press?

  20. AGW is the universal solvent of responsibility. It explains away all government failure, it explains every bad outcome, AGW excuses neglect of infrastructure, any bad planting season, any poor harvest.

  21. Firstly, global warming is insignificant to cause frost. At the same time in areas with frost risk, scientists have developed frost tollerent seed varieties. Plant has two components, namely growth and development. Secondly, crop development is a function of day length and meteorological parameters are secondary. The new varieties developed have a range of tollerance under different meorological conditions. Thirdly, crop growth is a function of incidence radiation and moisture. In the Quensland zone, rainfall is highly variable and thus temperature — see my Ph.D. Thesis in ANU Library. Soil types play important role in frost conditions.
    Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy

  22. Seems to me that they’ve accepted that the decades long Antarctic cooling and expanding ice shelf is going to make things cooler in Australia (at least short-term) and are trying to weave that cooling into their AGW narrative. Just like Holdren’s quote above about warming meaning cooling.
    Didn’t Hansen also say something similar?

  23. Modelling, schmodelling…
    How about “sixty years of climate DATA shows” blah blah blah.
    Oh no, of course not, because the actual DATA wouldn’t show anything to support the narrative – unless it was “adjusted” of course.
    Lying liars the whole lot of them.

  24. They looked at 60 years of “Quality Controlled” Data and came to a conclusion based on that crap data.
    They may have been doing serious work, but if they were it shows how corrupted data leads to incorrect conclusions, practically any study using “final” land based temperature data is going to get the wrong answers.

  25. Where was that paper…Spring is two days earlier per degree C … so farmers are planting their crops 1.6327 days earlier, thus incurring greater risk of a frost? Maybe they should just wait 0.023 days later to plant, and the risk will decrease by 42-83%

  26. The problem seems to be that plants are growing too fast. Oh dear, whatever will we do? Stupid, greedy plants.

  27. University of Queensland research scientist, Dr Jack Christopher, said climate modelling …

    I stopped reading the press release right there. A model proves nothing. When you base your study on something unproven and unprovable, then the rest of the study is junk. However, whenever I see “studies” that make the claim “cold = hotter earth”, to me what it really is saying “ignore your freezing rear-end and high heating bill, it is warmer somewhere else so don’t stop believing you are to blame for earth’s problems”.

  28. Where I live, nobody plants earlier than the standard farming/gardening rules developed 130 years ago. In 1890, everyone knew when crops could be semi-safely planted and these dates are not one single day earlier.
    In my mind, Frost is one of those pure physical facts that can not be adjusted away. The Frost dates are not moving which means the temperatures are not moving either. The fact that crops are not being grown in ever more northerly/closer to the poles locations also means the growing seasons are not changing.
    I don’t see how these climate change prophesy scientists can continue putting out these studies which completely contradict the prophesies of global warming and remain sane. I mean, shouldn’t they blow a fuse at some point. Maybe they never were that stable to begin with. Maybe they don’t care about integrity and facts don’t matter. Much simpler explanations.

    • I am in north western part of Illinois.
      My son gave me a book, Man and Climate, published in 1942 by the US Dept. of Agriculture.
      They have frost maps and tables for each state.
      And based on these maps, I still cannot plant tomatoes any earlier than the maps indicated 73 years ago.
      No warming to be detected at all. You can’t fool farmers with BS computer models.
      Like engineers, they are dependent on facts and what works over time.

      • Right. If planting is done too soon, people lose all of their money.
        This has a way of elimination BS.

  29. The logic is infallible:
    The plants are growing to fast, caused by warmer weather
    Plants require CO2, so faster growth uses up more CO2
    Frost occurs when it’s cold
    Thus,
    Increased warmth causes cold
    Increased photosynthesis causes more CO2
    When did the climate science community add circular logic to the curriculum?

  30. Re the remarks about the prickly pear cactus, brought in as rough fodder and “for use as a natural agricultural fence and in an attempt to establish a cochineal dye industry”, and the moths ( Cactoblastis cactorum) were brought in to keep the cactus under. “Cane toads were introduced to Australia from Hawaii in June 1935 by the Bureau of Sugar Experiment Stations, now the Sugar Research Australia in an attempt to control the native grey-backed cane beetle (Dermolepida albohirtum) and Frenchi beetle (Lepidiota frenchi).” (Just one trouble, the cane toads did not like eating the beetles, and ate other things!) Perhaps it is about time that CSIRO became useful and found something that would keep the Paris-ites under.
    Quotes from Wikipaedia articles.

  31. Here in East Anglia we have growing Spring sown and Winter sown Wheat fo decades. In my lifetime I have seen yields increase massively. In the 1950s a crop 1to 1.5 tons was the norm
    It is 3.5 to 4tons plus. also potatoes and sugar beet have more than doubled during the same time.
    I put it down to superb plant breeders which we have in GB, and some of the finest farmer’s in the world plus a little extra co2. Luckily we not reliant upon people who talk ball’s for a living!!

    • Mindless contribution. Did you know that it IS correlation in the first place that brings scrutiny to a possible cause of a phenomenon? This hackneyed bromide is meaningless without a fuller treatment. The contention of this caution is to warn that:
      ‘Although correlation is necessary for determining causation, its presence doesn’t necessarily mean you have found causation.’
      For example, roosters crow before sunrise, but they are not causes of the sunrise.

  32. But there’s no ice in the arctic anymore. It dissapeared in 2013 and frosts are a thing of the past. Along with snow. But maybe these new warmed frosts are back radiating the trapped heat to like, you know, cook the plants?

  33. “Radiant spring frosts” Sounds to me like the greenhouse gases are not adequate to protect crops. We obviously need more CO2 and Methane in the atmosphere to keep the down welling long wave at adequate levels to protect the crops.

    • Dry air causes these events.
      And we should have less of that, according to GCMs.
      In fact, the whole CAGW meme demands water vapor induced feedback!

  34. Farming must have been a whole lot simpler and easier before this climate change business. Either that, or farmers have gotten dumber.

  35. Things have gotten so bad our children will never know good science. An entire generation, having grown to adulthood, has never been told the truth about climate, nor have they personally experienced global warming yet no generation is more convinced the opposite is true. The green train has gone off the rails. How can we have gone so wrong?

  36. Climate change is not only fictional science it’s fictional revisionist history. I believe for a large extent that this is the History taught in higher learning institutions all over the west. If academia is going to change or distort history then why not science? Sooner or later politics trumps science in a society thst values collectivism and tribalism over individualism and objective logic. People seem to have amnesia when trying to think of political ruses funded by governments. They really think such a thing could never happen. Would you jump off the George Washington bridge if all the popular people did it? The answer for most people is yes and that is why I believe climate change has such legs. Wuwt is an exception to this rule.

  37. Lordy. Messy study about post-headed spring wheat dry freeze damage. Australia has a marginal wheat producing environment. So adaptation is key either through genetics within a variety or changing varieties.
    Here are some words from the study that may need a glossary.
    “Rainfed” means dryland wheat which is more often than not grown in fields every other year, also referred to as strip farming, which leaves a field fallow for a year to rest and soak up rain inbetween productivity.
    “Post heading” frost damage is different than pre-emergence freeze damage. The study concentrated on damage to wheat after it headed out with baby grains. In the US most of our issues related to freeze damage is in the early winter through early spring for winter wheat, and late spring for spring wheat before either variety heads.
    “Radiant” frost refers to dry cold air sucking moisture out of and away from plants (low humidity/low temperatures). The photo of the fruit in this post does not show radiant freezing, and instead shows the results of a freezing rain (high humidity/cold temperatures). Freezing rain can actually be less damaging than dry radiant freeze damage as icing up can have coating insulating properties that a dry cold freeze cannot have.
    Final comments about the paper. Australia does not have decent (hell not even poor) records of actual freeze damage with spring wheat that has headed out. This means that the researchers’ results that purport to produce “simulated” damaging post-head freeze events means that this study cannot be compared against observations. It is a hindcast that cannot be verified. If I were a farmer in Australia, this paper would be taken to the outhouse for better use.
    http://jxb.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2015/04/27/jxb.erv163.full.pdf+html

    • By the way, it took me less than a minute to find the full copy of the research. Those who post should engage in due diligence to find the full paper and provide the link in their post. Granted, sometimes it just isn’t available. But this one was easy to find and link to.

  38. climate modelling of 60 years’ worth of data…”

    trans: We took a miniscule time slice of the climate cycle and created a long term trend from it.
    Wipes all credibility of any prediction.

  39. As an Aeronautical Engineer, I anxiously await the day when the green warming scam hits the aircraft industry. After all, we all know that warm, less dense air produces less lift, therefore the increase in aircraft accidents must be caused by this fact, since everything is warming! Oh wait. It also causes cooling, which means more dense air, thus more lift, so it must be a good thing! Only the cooling leads to more warming, so then less lift, so kill the nasty CO2! Where do I get my grant check for circular reasoning?

    • Is that the road on that Weather Channel series, Highway Through Hell?
      Highway 5 I think, the Coquihalla Highway?
      I love that show.

      • Nope. This snow was around the Banff area, in Alberta. However, it is running a little late for snow on the Coq. Give it a week at the pass. :>) I’ve only lived in AB for 31 years, but still the only province in Canada outside of Ellesmere Island in the old NWT ( Nunavut…or none-of-it) to have at least one day of recordable snowfall in every month of the year. Hang around 5 minutes, the wx will change. :):)

  40. Like with everything else, increasing CO2 only causes bad things to happen.
    Strange how the planet is greening up with all this extreme weather and climate. Guess everybody is looking at models and theories and using speculation……………..instead of using their eyes to see the response of life in front of them.
    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/07/130708103521.htm
    http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GlobalGarden/
    http://www.co2science.org/education/reports/co2benefits/MonetaryBenefitsofRisingCO2onGlobalFoodProduction.pdf
    The last 30 years of weather/climate on this planet were the best since the Medieval Warm Period almost 1,000 years ago(that was warmer than this).
    There is a “grain” of truth to this study, regarding some crops(Winter wheat) being more vulnerable to a late Spring frost, when it is unusually warm early on, causing the crop to mature ahead of schedule.
    2007 was an example of this on a large scale with the US Winter Wheat crop(after a record warm March).
    when record cold temps hit in the first week of April.
    It would not have made any difference regarding when the Winter Wheat was planted in the Fall. Breaking dormancy in the Spring will always happen, based entirely on temperatures in the Spring.
    However, whether global warming(that stalled out almost 2 decades ago) increases or decreases the overall amount of freeze damage in the Spring is unclear.
    What is clear, is that it lessens freeze damage in the Fall to crops like corn and soybeans, which when planted earlier, mature earlier. For corn, more growing degree days during the growing season also accelerates maturity(too warm can cause heat fill and small kernels however).
    There are many other factors too, like the huge atmospheric fertilization from increasing CO2 that are entirely a big benefit and greatly out weigh whatever contribution, plus or minus that global warming might have based on the speculative, theoretical but not happening effects.

  41. Yet another computer model spewing nonsense. Actually, that’s not correct. It’s the idiot that programmed and fed the data into the computer model.

  42. It’s hard to remember back so far, but CSIRO used to be a serious scientific organisation, so was U of Q, and was doing real scientific work. Now it is just an Alarmist Paper Writing Factory, earning cheques and salaries by prostitution. Even children know hot from cold and that frosts come in cold weather not hot.
    “The odds are that what we can expect as a result of global warming is to see more
    of this pattern of extreme cold. ” from Dr. John Holdren, The White House is a statement that just about sums up the insanity.

  43. Echuca in SE Austalia has a long temperature record going back to 1880. The record shows no warming of the maximums since then, but approximately one degree of cooling for the minimums. There are many other sites in SE Australia that show a similar temperature profile.
    There has been no global warming in SE Australia, and some might say a slight cooling. More frosts – later frosts?
    Dr. Roy Spencer revealed a similiar result for the corn belt of the USA.

    • And yet if DWLWIR does anything, surely its effects are felt most at night. One would expect to see less low minimums, not a 1 degree cooling to the minimums.

  44. If DWLWIR possesses sensible energy capable of performing real work in the environment in which it finds itself here on planet Earth, why does DWLWIR seem so incapable of evaporating dew, or melting frost?
    All who have lived in medium northern latitudes will have seen winter days where low lying hollows are completely covered in dew. Within an hour or so of sun up, the dew on the sunny side of the hollow is driven off, and yet the dew on the shady side of the hollow may linger all day.
    On the sunny side the amount of solar for 2 hours plus whatever DWLWIR there is will burn off the dew, but on the shady side say 8 hours of whatever DWLWIR there is, is not sufficient to burn off the dew.
    According to K & T DWLWIR is approximately twice as powerful as solar, even if one doubles the power from solar to reflect that K&T is a 24 hour budget and the sun only shines for half the 24 hour period, there is, according to K&T more energy in 8 hours of DWLWIR than there is in 2 hours of solar (at double strength) plus 2 hours of DWLWIR. So why is DWLWIR so incapable of burning off dew?
    Ditto, black ice. in winter on the shady side of a country road black ice may linger all day, but there is no black ice on the sunny sections of the road. Why can’t DWLWIR burn off this very thin layer of black ice if DFWLWIR really possesses sensible energy capable of performing sensible work?
    .

  45. “However, more frost events, later last frost day and a significant increase in frost impact on yield was estimated in certain areas”
    As there was no trend in “frost events” for 57 years we can assume that the opposite is also the case

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