From the University of Edinburgh:
Warming slow-down not the end of climate change, study shows
A slow-down in global warming is not a sign that climate change is ending, but a natural blip in an otherwise long-term upwards trend, research shows.
In a detailed study of more than 200 years’ worth of temperature data, results backed previous findings that short-term pauses in climate change are simply the result of natural variation.
The findings support the likelihood that a current hiatus in the world’s year-on-year temperature increases – which have stalled since 1998 – is temporary.
Scientists from the University of Edinburgh analysed real-world historic climate records from 1782 to 2000, comparing them with computerised climate models for the same timescale.
They were able to separate the influence on climate trends of man-made warming – such as from greenhouse gas emissions – and of natural influences in temperature – such as periods of intense sunlight or volcanic activity.
This showed that random variations can cause short term interruptions to climate patterns in the form of a pause or surge in warming, in both the real data and in the models, typically lasting up to a decade. Extreme natural forces, such as strong volcanic eruptions, were shown to disrupt climate trends for decades.
The research highlights the impact of volcanic eruptions on climate, when particles produced can reflect sunlight from Earth, causing long-lasting cooling. The eruption of Mount Tambora in Indonesia in 1815 was among the biggest in recent times, causing a so-called year without summer. Scientists estimate that, if it occurred today, it would cause a 20-year climate hiatus.
Their study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, was supported by the European Commission.
Dr Andrew Schurer, of the University of Edinburgh’s School of GeoSciences, who led the research, said: “Human activity is causing the word to warm, and natural variability can cause this trend to slow down or speed up. Our study backs scientific understanding that climate change can experience periods of hiatus, but the overall trend is towards a warmer planet.”
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This has to qualify as one of the worst press releases we’ve ever seen via Eurekalert. The don’t give the name of the paper, the DOI, or any links to it. We are required to look it up, because, you know, these people are just too busy saving the world to stoop to such serf-like tasks.
Determining the likelihood of pauses and surges in global warming
Andrew P. Schurer, Gabriele C. Hegerl and Stephen P. Obrochta
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL064458/full
Abstract
The recent warming “hiatus” is subject to intense interest, with proposed causes including natural forcing and internal variability. Here we derive samples of all natural and internal variability from observations and a recent proxy reconstruction to investigate the likelihood that these two sources of variability could produce a hiatus or rapid warming in surface temperature. The likelihood is found to be consistent with that calculated previously for models and exhibits a similar spatial pattern, with an Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation-like structure, although with more signal in the Atlantic than in model patterns. The number and length of events increases if natural forcing is also considered, particularly in the models. From the reconstruction it can be seen that large eruptions, such as Mount Tambora in 1815, or clusters of eruptions, may result in a hiatus of over 20 years, a finding supported by model results.
Key Points
- The recent hiatus is not unusual in the context of the last 230 years
- Models agree with observations regarding likelihood and pattern of events
- Likelihood increases if natural forcings (e.g., volcanic) are also considered
Figures as they were provided in the preview, no captions given.
I’d tend to believe them more if they could actually show a Tambora style eruption that has occurred in the last 15-20 years, and also explain why the effect of Pinatubo was so short lived if in fact volcanoes are affecting global climate as they say.
I think Willis does a far better job of explaining it here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/05/25/stacked-volcanoes-falsify-models/
The pause has nothing to do with volcanoes, if anything because there has been less activity, the warming should have been more pronounced recently than before 1995.
Adjusting global temperatures to compensate for Stratospheric Optical Thickness makes no difference over the pause.
Volcanoes have had much greater affect on the SAOT before 1995.
“Human activity is causing the word to warm,”
Surely they mean WORLD not WORD, paid for by the EU commission and they can’t even get that right, how embarrassing.
No, words have been warming for quite some time now. I keep hoping they’ll reach a tipping point.
Next step: Manipulate volcanoes and revise eruption data as needed.
http://spaceweather.com/swpod2010/18dec10/twostratospheres_strip.gif
“Earth’s stratosphere is as clear as it’s been in more than 50 years. University of Colorado climate scientist Richard Keen knows this because he’s been watching lunar eclipses. “Since 1996, lunar eclipses have been bright, which means the stratosphere is relatively clear of volcanic aerosols. This is the longest period with a clear stratosphere since before 1960.”
http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=19&month=12&year=2010
Please make up your mind – last I heard was that there NOAA was claiming there was no hiatus. Now there is but its caused by volcanoes?
Volcanic eruptions affect weather, perhaps for few months, at most a year or two, while climate is a multi-decadal thing.
In the critical areas of the globe (up to now I found only three) where volcanic activity is along tectonic plates boundary where there is a convergence between warm and cold ocean currents, then the volcanic activity can be considered as a good proxy for the tectonic plates mechanical oscillations; periodicity of these oscillations is found in the climate data and referred to as the ‘natural variability’. The fact that some plates, but most notably the North American oscillates at 22 years (solar magnetic cycle) it could be that it is less to do with the sun itself, but more to do with the configuration within the solar system.
I think the University got caught by the fact The Open finished on Monday, the world was still focused on Scotland but they hoped they could sneak it by after on an otherwise quiet day.
200 years of data.
they analyzed 200 years of data.
To describe processes that likely occur in geologic time, they used a sample of 200 years.
‘In a detailed study of more than 200 years’ worth of temperature data, results backed previous findings that short-term pauses in climate change are simply the result of natural variation.
The findings support the likelihood that a current hiatus in the world’s year-on-year temperature increases – which have stalled since 1998 – is temporary.’
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Oh yes, the boy cried wolf.
The alarmed find arcadian pastures with relaxed grasing sheep. And no wolfes.
The boy who cried wolf talks about natural variability and temporary phenomenens.
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The sweating alarmed smile and hasten home – maybe I forgot the fire under the pan.
And bide time ’till the next obligate alarm.
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Why not. Hans
phenomenens 2 phenomenons. take it or leave it.
Thanks – Hans
What if the earth is currently passing through a cloud of hypothetical dark matter? Wouldn’t that be a more logical explanation?
hmmm. If climate models are run with increasing CO2 scenarios and then show that CO2 increases warming (the null hypothesis in this study, which I refer to as the “duh” hypothesis), and then run again but with natural variability scenarios and show that natural variability increases the length of trends, doesn’t that result negate the null hypothesis model in this study?
Just a low level armchair amateur askin a dumb question.
The thing about volcanoes is that (and I am just thinking out loud here) if strong enough to spew sulfuric acid into the stratosphere and timed just right, they can prevent a La Nina ocean heat recharging episode from doing its thing, which is recharge the oceans so that we can stay warm. If a super volcano is timed just right, when the oceans are at the end of their heat stores and in need of clear sky conditions to keep us from being plunged into a Little Ice Age, it seems plausible to me that the repercussions can go beyond the immediate affects of the ash aerosols. I don’t know whether or not the mild slow down we are in now is or is not related to volcanic veils. But I do believe the serendipitous occurrence of super volcanic explosions with low oceanic heat stores can have results worse than we think and for longer than we think.
Gosh,
What confusion! I am still reading the information that was suggested to study that “fourth state of matter”. After reading that stuff and now the above, I am confused even more.
I believe that there is “lost opportunity” to really understand the sun – earth connection but there are so much to read that it gets in the way of some really needed research. I hope the scientist that are responsible for the non-historical data will step forward and look at the present to see that their “models” must be wrong and will always be wrong. That ball of fire in the sky is smarter than they all are. It puts out such an arrangement of non-essential information that each scientist can find anything they want if given enough time. Unfortunately, all I see is past history that is being used to determine the possible future.
All they need to do is go outside every once in a while and make sure the sun is still there, take a quick look and go back into their “computerized study room”, take a deep breath and thank God that it is still there.
Sorry, but I had to put in a last word. Hope nobody is offended.