Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Scientists working in Victoria, Australia, have claimed that barley yellow dwarf virus spreads more easily, when wheat plants are subject to elevated levels of CO2.
Dr Piotr Trêbicki, speaking to the ABC;
Lead researcher Dr Piotr Trêbicki said the study found the spread of the disease in wheat increased more than 30 per cent under the test conditions.
“We need to understand what to expect in the future,” he said.
“This study was done on just one cultivar, which is the most commonly grown in Wimmera, but we really need to have [a] grasp on the mechanism.”
Victoria exported $1.9 billion worth of grain during the 2013/14 financial year.
The nation’s total cereal production generates about $8 billion in exports annually.
Previous research has found increased carbon dioxide levels could boost crop growth and yields, but reduce quality.
Read more: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-24/co2-viruses-climate-change/6416582
I find it a bit difficult to accept this is anything other than an experimental anomaly – as Dr Piotr Trêbicki admitted, the experiment was small scale, with just one cultivar.
Elevated CO2 levels of 1000ppm+, are used extensively in commercial greenhouses – the CO2 is usually generated on the spot, by burning natural gas in large special purpose CO2 generators, which keep the CO2, and discard the heat. If there was a general problem with plant disease and CO2, surely someone who owns a commercial greenhouse would have noticed by now.
Global wheat yields are soaring, despite, or more likely in part because of the rise in atmospheric CO2 levels, from 250 – 280ppm in the 1800s, to 400ppm today. Granted this growth rate is due to the combined influence of a lot of factors – better agricultural practices, more CO2, better pest control, better crop strains. However, if there is a negative “CO2 effect”, the negative effect is currently being more than counteracted by whatever we are doing to improve yields.
What if, despite all this evidence that CO2 is beneficial, wheat is a special case? What if wheat really is more vulnerable to insect borne diseases like barley yellow dwarf virus, when exposed to elevated levels of CO2? Time would solve this unlikely problem. Surely by 2050, someone will have developed a better bug spray to kill the aphids which spread the disease, or someone will have developed a genetically enhanced breed of wheat, with more resistance to pathogens like yellow dwarf virus.
Dr Trêbicki’s suggestion that we might be able to infer the problems people will face in 2050, based on his study, seems implausible. History is littered with embarrassing mistakes, made by people who tried to predict the problems which would be faced by future generations.
UPDATE
Just an engineer comments that a transgenic solution to barley yellow dwarf virus, which works in barley plants, was discovered in 2001.
…We have generated barley plants containing transgenes encoding a hpRNA derived from BYDV-PAV polymerase sequences. Over one-third of these independently transformed plants have extreme resistance to BYDV-PAV. Furthermore, some of the plants have a single transgene that is inherited, along with virus immunity, in a simple Mendelian manner. …
Read more: http://regional.org.au/au/abts/2001/m4/abbott.htm
Solution to problem investigated 14 years ago,
A single copy of a virus-derived transgene encoding hairpin RNA gives immunity to barley yellow dwarf virus.
http://regional.org.au/au/abts/2001/m4/abbott.htm
Wow, I guess no need to wait until 2050 for a solution… 🙂
This is becoming quite a humorous thread. Note the lead author of that study. Perhaps related to PM Tony Abbott who secretly, and not so secretly, feels Climate Science is crap. Good one!
Max Photon, if that is the effect of weed on females then what a fool I have been; I could surely have had use for some many times. I wonder what effect it has on males!?
uk(us) has a lecture series on the topic.
@ur momisugly Max Photon,
Did it take ?
Use too much & you grow man-maries, or so it has been alleged by modern reefer madness advocates. The experimental jury is still out:
Endocrine Effects of Marijuana – ukcia.org
http://www.ukcia.org/research/EndocrineEffects.pdf
Or you can just spray the aphid carriers with insecticide derived from fossil fuels from a fossil fuel-powered crop dusting aircraft.
Well. Why not. For sure, nothing is all-good, so CO2 must , as everything, have some bad effects. Easier time for some virus, in some conditions ? why not…
Now I want them to tell us how to cope with the (alleged) bad effect, instead of just ranting. Or their “research” will have been useless.
No mention about how CO2 was controlled.
No mention about how insects were controlled.
No mention about how the size of the plots.
No mention about local insect populations.
No mention about whether local insects were high or low density disease vectors.
No mention about how the control groups fared.
No mention or description of day by day plant and disease samples.
Why do I have a suspicion that the insects were purposely introduced without controls.
Hopefully the full paper and additional materials will be released soon; otherwise treat this as meritless claims.
The purpose of the press release is to make simpletons believe something as fact, not to give details or ask questions. Giving the details is dangerous to pseudoscience.
A small sampling under controlled conditions with knee-jerk results, yet another result of publish by the numbers, not by the quality.
The intermediate disease vector is various aphids; there is no plant to plant transmission as with the much more serious fungal cereal ‘rusts’. (Want to wory about something, Google UG99.) The virus can infect barley (hence name), oats, wheat, rice, and other ‘grasses’. The farming solution is pyrethrin insecticide, plus plowing under ‘green bridge’ plant cover harboring infected aphids. Asserting plants would be worse affected with AGW overlooks the disease fundamentals. Plain silly.
And lack of CO2 causes photosynthesis to slow to such a low level, that the next bolide strike will bring the mother of all extinctions. And once that shoe drops, then come the fungi. Unlike past instances, fungi-world may simply go on forever, and photosynthesis world may never again live.
I’m a hobby gardener who grows about 400 hot pepper plants of various kinds, mostly from seed. Ever since I started coming to this site I’ve been fascinated with the idea of growing my plants in elevated CO2 concentrations. Commercial generators are expensive and I toyed with the idea making my own with plastic sheeting and a propane burner. However I came up with a much simpler solution. I burn one properly adjusted stove burner on near full power and grow the seedlings on my kitchen counter. My kitchen is 750 sq ft. I don’t have instrumentation so I can’t measure CO2 concentration, but the results are as impressive as that U-Tube time lapse video with different CO2 concentrations that has been posted several times on WUWT in the past. I planted the seeds 49 days ago and some of the plants have eight sets of true leaves and Many of them are beginning to flower. And it costs almost nothing. We are still in heating season and the heat from the burner just delays the regular thermostat from calling for more heat. The other amazing thing is that the lighting is all 19 watt Par 38 LED lighting. My only problem is that I might have to cut off the stove to slow growth down. The plants are ready to go and I have three weeks to kill until frost free date.
Wouldn’t cost much to monitor this, just get a meter from http://www.co2meter.com. You might find that your kitchen is running at around 1,000ppm anyway 🙂
I have started monitoring the outdoor airflow again recently. CO2 levels currently around 380 – 390ppm during daylight hours. Starts to rise at about 7pm, well over 400 by 9pm, highest levels around midnight (420 – 460), levels off at about 410 from 1am to about 5:30am, drops below 400 after 8am. Sunrise 6:25am, sunset 5:55pm. Location is shoreline SW Coral Sea, airflow is 60% off the ocean, predominant source is natural, “open savanna” type coastal tree-line and extensive mangroves.
Climate scientists: Ignoring the silver lining in the CO2 cloud for 40 years now.
Well, we should all stop eating wheat anyway. It’s not our ancestors wheat anymore.
this reminds me of the so called joke from when I was a teen: “scientist stuck 20 toothpicks in a lab rat and it died, therefore they concluded toothpicks cause cancer!”
Cheers!
Joe
Further evidence that the LPU* virus is now an epidemic in academic circles.
* Least Publishable Unit, a measure use for preliminary internal pal review of academic papers, the quantum required to attract funding.
Then we have this,
Climate Change and Wheat Crop Responses—
FACEing the Future
““Results
Crops grown under high CO2 gave, on average, about a 50% increase in yield. This increase occurred irrespective of the sowing time or year (Figure 3). The May to November rainfalls were a dry 148 mm in 2008 and a more normal 264 mm for 2009. The harvest index of these crops—the proportion of growth that goes to grain—was not reduced with high CO2 so the plants were actually operating more effi ciently with the extra carbon available to them in the atmosphere.
The yield response suggests that CO2 will help reduce the impact of higher temperatures and lower rainfalls, even in the low rainfall regions of Australia.”
http://www.ipni.net/publication/bettercrops.nsf/0/D147F350B34E12E78525797C007959B1/$FILE/Better%20Crops%202011-4%20p12.pdf
The “even” is misplaced, since higher CO2 especially, preferentially, helps increase yields in low rainfall areas. The less time that plants need to keep their stomata open to take in the CO2 they need, the less H2O they lose to the atmosphere.
Besides CO2 increase, wheat yield & acreage have been helped by, among other factors, natural gas-derived fertilizers, gas & diesel-powered cultivation & new varieties better able to take advantage of these factors (the Green Revolution), such as shorter stalks to hold up the bigger heads. Most wheat yield increase in the 20th century is from fossil fuels & chemical stock, plus the beneficial CO2 side effect. Higher CO2 also makes growing crops & feeding livestock possible in drier areas.
I grew up on a wheat ranch & have seen the remarkable yield increases in person.
Plus herbicides & pesticides reliant on organic chemicals, ie the evil C-word.
To right! I now live in Australia, but I spent many an hour on a tractor in Kansas growing up, laying down anhydrous ammonia fertilizer so these Green bast*rds had food in their mouths.
Dawtgtomis April 24, 2015 at 8:20 am
goldminor April 24, 2015 at 9:24 am
milodonharlani April 24, 2015 at 4:37 pm
Ladybugs (lady beetles, ladybirds) and their larvae are voracious aphid gobblers.
http://www.livescience.com/8211-lost-ladybugs-south-dakota.html
Native N. Americans planted corn, beans, and squash – the famous “Three Sisters” – together on small mounds presumably without resorting to any chemical fixes, but then, they probably weren’t killing their ladybugs either.
I have always made it a point of honor to preserve, protect & defend ladybugs.
I should perhaps add that, while aphids are generally not a great threat to wheat, I’d rather opt for ladybug predators than their aphid prey any day.
Even when they don’t look like ladies.
http://goodlifegarden.ucdavis.edu/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/lady-larvae.jpg
I’m pretty sure that we don’t have that one in Oregon.
I have only seen them once in Washington, when I pulled up a nasturtium flower. I was sorry to learn later that they were actually ladybug larvae. Scary.
http://cdn-1.ladybug-life-cycle.com/graphics/ladybug_larvae.jpg
That is wild.
My uncle cultivated nasturtia right by his door.
Also perhaps superfluous to add that west of the Cascades is a world away from east of the Cascades.
I question their ‘findings’.
I live in the Eastern United States, Virginia to be explicit. There is an abundance of ladybugs here, so much so that every winter hundreds sneak through cracks in my supposedly sealed house. There are thousands more ladybugs happily hibernating in my local clump of pine trees.
All winter long, ladybugs in my house wake up out of hibernation to entertain me and search my orchids for pests, usually fruitlessly. The most entertaining ladybug this past winter was one lady bug’s fascination with my computer’s mouse. For several hours she insisted on returning to and climbing about my mouse, over and under my hand. I kept moving her to the side of my desk. When I took my hand away she headed right back to the mouse; I gave up and left her alone with my mouse.
There were ladybugs where I lived in Louisiana and ladybugs where I lived in Pennsylvania. There are ladybugs at all of my friends and family’s houses from South Carolina through to Massachusetts.
Ladybugs can control populations of vermin, they do not eliminate the infestations. So long as you don’t mind eating aphids within your broccoli buds, ladybugs are sufficient for bug control.
Suburban areas whose denizens insist on weekly chemical treatments for their lawns may lack ladybugs. Abundance depends strongly on where and when you look for them. To truly identify declining ladybugs, researchers would have to perform a thorough ladybug census at all ladybug hibernation sites over a large area.
Yes, those lady beetles you’ve described – at least the invasive ones – are likely Harmonia axyridis, which has many names and also many forms, or color variations. It is commonly known as the Harlequin ladybird, Multi-colored Asian lady beetle, and Halloween lady beetle.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harmonia_axyridis
The most reliable way of identifying H. axyridis is to look for a bold W or M pattern on the beetle’s pronotum, which covers the thorax, and also offers protection to the beetle’s head.
These ladybirds were imported from Asia to the UK, the US, and probably elsewhere to control aphids, which they seem to do in some situations, but at a cost to the local lady beetles.
–Wiki, ibid
So, more unintended consequences. Quick fixes may work over the short haul, but the long-term consequences of upsetting local balances are difficult to compute.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/splinx/8370565921/sizes/l
The Aphid’s Demise
photo: Steve P
Zeke, those LB instars are downright fearsome-looking little critters, but they’re just as good as the adults at eating aphids.
sciguy54 April 24, 2015 at 5:39 am
The phrase ” aphid-spread disease common in plants” would cause me to guess that the virus vector would be aphids. Did the “test conditions” simulate normal insecticide application? This looks like normal ag-school stuff, not a sign of the coming apocalypse
Hence the aphid riff.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/splinx/4291997352/sizes/o/
Ladybug Instar with Aphid
photo: Steve P
Bug porn.
No, but I’ve got that too.
Bug porn? Really?
http://i33.tinypic.com/2ymt6b9.jpg
Max is an artieeest 🙂
That was a compliment, for the nice photo.
Some guys have all the luck. (: Nice photo.
Thanks Zeke. Indeed the lady beetles are considered good luck in many cultures. especially if one lands on you.
Or, it may mean you have aphids.
Coleoptera Calling
Flashing back to the late ’50s…
Lucky Ladybug
Billie & Lillie
#14 1959
Realistically THE dioxide will not directly promote viruses. After all, they are respirators like us. Increased partial pressure just slows them down, again like us. THE dioxide will promote plant virus hosts, and thus their client base.
Increased temperature, from whatever cause, WILL promote viruses and all manner of ice age suppressed microbes. We may be venturing into territory whether from human warming, or far more likely natural warming, that modern humans and plants have never seen.
I think the story listed below Dr Piotr Trêbicki’s story http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-24/farmers-slowly-clear-blue-gum-trees-in-favour-of-pasture/6416450 is of interest.
People losing money on trying to cash in on seemingly big environmental benefits and tax incentives.
Cheers
Roger
http://www.rogerfromnewzealand.wordpress.com
Land clearance of trees is a ‘no-no’ in Australia. One of the problems with rising salinity levels in soils, die -back in gum trees, water retention is reduced, etc. Last year a farmer shot and killed an EPA agent. His son was fined for clearing huge amounts of native trees, to make room for pastures. Haven’t they learned from what happen in the Amazon basin, that trees cleared in huge areas, affect precipitation patterns, and the soils get depleted even with the adding of chemical fertilizers. Anyway must go and tend to my plants with the change of seasons, I have got to bring in some bonsai, that don’t like the cold.
PS. And soil degradation and erosion. Soils must be covered to give them stability.
Having gained my Diploma in Organic Agricultural production, not once did we consider atmospheric CO2 to be a danger to plants. However, soil chemistry can be changed to the detriment of plant growth, be it pastures or just plants and trees. The motto is ‘Feed the soil not the plant’ as microorganisms in the soil are necessary for good plant health and vigor. They feed on bacteria and the rhizosphere feeds the plants through the hair roots. So if the soil is too wet all the time, destructive micro-organisms thrive while others die or too much salinity, plants die or get diseased.
Virus’ in wheat and other crops can be the result of air borne but mostly passed on from contaminated soil and tools used. And wheat can be genetically changed to be resistant.
Interesting studies are that healthy plants and crops, are pretty stubborn against locusts.
One instance was locusts passed over healthy fields, because the richness(sugar) in those plants can not be digested by locusts. They require good drainage as well as sufficient water or moisture conservation. Ideally soils should be 45% minerals, 25% water, 25% air and 5% organic material. An imbalance can effect plant growth and be a breeding ground for destructive micro-organisms and viruses. A study at UNE (Armidale) was to help discover what damage nitrous oxide did in soils and how to remedy it. Easy – add Gypsum that breaks up the clay content and allows better drainage. I bet Monsanto are behind this research with their seed licenses and geo-genetic research. Making plants and crops free from Roundup, and their attempts to develop the terminator seeds. (Won’t bear seed for next years supply). But CO2 as plants need it and return oxygen to the atmosphere, without them we would not have the atmosphere we breathe today. All carbon based organisms need CO2, in minute .3% otherwise we could not exist. We are naturally Nitrogen junkies, if you like, not CO2 junkies or even oxygen.
Obesity spreads faster the more food there is available for humans to eat. Using CAGW logic, the answer is starvation. /sarc
As one who leads in growing soil soil-carbon elements in deserts I can confirm you are part right. 2-4% of Earths plants sequester CO2e and generate soil soil-carbon and elements. You are discussing the 96% that take biomass carbon and elements from the soil. Your immediate problem might well be like 65% of the Earths soil it is missing elements and likely clear air