Another 'polar bears are in trouble' story….yawwwn

polarbear_billboard
The reality is: polar bears are doing better than 50 years ago

From the University of Washington and the department of unbearable press releases:

First global review on the status, future of Arctic marine mammals

For Arctic marine mammals, the future is especially uncertain. Loss of sea ice and warming temperatures are shifting already fragile Northern ecosystems.

The precarious state of those mammals is underscored in a multinational study led by a University of Washington scientist, published this week in Conservation Biology, assessing the status of all circumpolar species and subpopulations of Arctic marine mammals, including seals, whales and polar bears. The authors outline the current state of knowledge and their recommendations for the conservation of these animals over the 21st century.

“These species are not only icons of climate change, but they are indicators of ecosystem health, and key resources for humans,” said lead author Kristin Laidre, a polar scientist with the UW Applied Physics Laboratory.

The overall numbers and trends due to climate change are unknown for most of the 78 populations of marine mammals included in the report: beluga, narwhal and bowhead whales; ringed, bearded, spotted, ribbon, harp and hooded seals; walruses; and polar bears.

The paper reviews population sizes and trends over time, if known, for each group, ranging from millions of ringed seals to fewer than a hundred beluga whales in Northern Canada’s Ungava Bay.

“Accurate scientific data – currently lacking for many species – will be key to making informed and efficient decisions about the conservation challenges and tradeoffs in the 21st century,” Laidre said.

The publicly available report also divides the Arctic Ocean into 12 regions, and calculates the changes in the dates of spring sea ice retreat and fall freeze-up from NASA satellite images taken between 1979 and 2013.

Reductions in the sea ice cover, it finds, are “profound.” The summer ice period was longer in most regions by five to 10 weeks. The summer period increased by more than 20 weeks, or about five months, in the Barents Sea off Russia.

The species most at risk from the changes are polar bears and ice-associated seals.

“These animals require sea ice,” Laidre said. “They need ice to find food, find mates and reproduce, to rear their young. It’s their platform of life. It is very clear those species are going to feel the effects the hardest.”

Whales may actually benefit from less ice cover, at least initially, as the open water could expand their feeding habitats and increase food supplies.

Approximately 78 percent of the Arctic marine mammal populations included in the study are legally harvested for subsistence across the Arctic.

“There’s no other system in the world where top predators support human communities the ways these species do,” Laidre said.

The study recommends:

  • Maintaining and improving co-management with local and governmental entities for resources that are important to the culture and well-being of local and indigenous peoples.
  • Recognizing variable population responses to climate change and incorporating those into management. In the long term, loss of sea ice is expected to be harmful to many Arctic marine mammals, however many populations currently exhibit variable responses.
  • Improving long-term monitoring while recognizing monitoring for all species will be impossible. Alternatives include collecting valuable data from subsistence harvests, using remote methods to track changes in habitat, and selecting specific subpopulations as indicators.
  • Studying and mitigating the impacts of increasing human activities including shipping, seismic exploration, fisheries and other resource exploration in Arctic waters.
  • Recognizing the limits of protected species legislation. A balanced approach with regard to regulating secondary factors, such as subsistence harvest and industrial activity, will be needed, since protected species legislation cannot regulate the driver of habitat loss.

While the report aims to bring attention to the status and future of Arctic mammals, the authors hope to provoke a broader public response.

“We may introduce conservation measures or protected species legislation, but none of those things can really address the primary driver of Arctic climate change and habitat loss for these species,” Laidre said. “The only thing that can do that is the regulation of greenhouse gases.”

###

The report was funded by the Greenland Institute of Natural Resources and NASA. Co-authors are Harry Stern at the UW; Kit Kovacs, Christian Lydersen and Dag Vongraven at the Norwegian Polar Institute; Lloyd Lowry at the University of Alaska; Sue Moore at the U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service; Eric Regehr at the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in Anchorage; Steven Ferguson at Fisheries and Oceans Canada; &Ostroke;ystein Wiig at the University of Oslo; Peter Boyeng and Robyn Angliss at the Alaska Fisheries Science Center; Erik Born and Fernando Ugarte at the Greenland Institute of National Resources; and Lori Quakenbush at the Alaska Department of Fish and Game.

The study builds on a 2013 report by the Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna, a multinational group that advises the Arctic Council on biodiversity and conservation issues. Laidre was one of the lead authors for the chapter on marine mammals.

For more information, contact Laidre at 206-616-9030 or klaidre@uw.edu. She will leave March 20 to begin fieldwork in Greenland.

Disclaimer: AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert system.

For Arctic marine mammals, the future is especially uncertain. Loss of sea ice and warming temperatures are shifting already fragile Northern ecosystems.

The precarious state of those mammals is underscored in a multinational study led by a University of Washington scientist, published this week in Conservation Biology, assessing the status of all circumpolar species and subpopulations of Arctic marine mammals, including seals, whales and polar bears. The authors outline the current state of knowledge and their recommendations for the conservation of these animals over the 21st century.

“These species are not only icons of climate change, but they are indicators of ecosystem health, and key resources for humans,” said lead author Kristin Laidre, a polar scientist with the UW Applied Physics Laboratory.

A [fat] polar bear is shown on the north slope of Alaska. Credit: Eric Regehr, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
A [fat] polar bear is shown on the north slope of Alaska. Credit: Eric Regehr, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
The overall numbers and trends due to climate change are unknown for most of the 78 populations of marine mammals included in the report: beluga, narwhal and bowhead whales; ringed, bearded, spotted, ribbon, harp and hooded seals; walruses; and polar bears.

The paper reviews population sizes and trends over time, if known, for each group, ranging from millions of ringed seals to fewer than a hundred beluga whales in Northern Canada’s Ungava Bay.

“Accurate scientific data – currently lacking for many species – will be key to making informed and efficient decisions about the conservation challenges and tradeoffs in the 21st century,” Laidre said.

The publicly available report also divides the Arctic Ocean into 12 regions, and calculates the changes in the dates of spring sea ice retreat and fall freeze-up from NASA satellite images taken between 1979 and 2013.

###

The report was funded by the Greenland Institute of Natural Resources and NASA. Co-authors are Harry Stern at the UW; Kit Kovacs, Christian Lydersen and Dag Vongraven at the Norwegian Polar Institute; Lloyd Lowry at the University of Alaska; Sue Moore at the U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service; Eric Regehr at the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in Anchorage; Steven Ferguson at Fisheries and Oceans Canada; &Ostroke;ystein Wiig at the University of Oslo; Peter Boyeng and Robyn Angliss at the Alaska Fisheries Science Center; Erik Born and Fernando Ugarte at the Greenland Institute of National Resources; and Lori Quakenbush at the Alaska Department of Fish and Game.

The study builds on a 2013 report by the Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna, a multinational group that advises the Arctic Council on biodiversity and conservation issues. Laidre was one of the lead authors for the chapter on marine mammals.

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Steve Oregon
March 21, 2015 8:57 pm

How special. Kristin says more management, monitoring, study and mitigating is needed.
Dear Kristin,
Shut up.
Good day.

Martin C
March 21, 2015 9:40 pm

Oh my goodness . . . Dr. Susan Crockford ought to have a FIELD DAY with this post . . .!
Polar Bears in trouble . . ? NOT ! ! ! ! ! . Now I can’t say about the rest of the speices mentioned, but LOSS OF SUMMER ICE ISN”T an ISSUE . .! As I recall from Dr. Crockford’s website, IT’s TOO MUCH WINTER ICE that can cause problems with the Seals bearing young, followed by effects to the Polar Bears.
When will this madness end . . ? ! ?

Martin C
March 21, 2015 9:41 pm

. . .awwww crap . . . I misspelled Dr. Crockford’s first name ( . . SuSan, not Suan .). ( . . sorry Dr. Crockford . .

KevinK
March 21, 2015 10:00 pm

“The overall numbers and trends due to climate change are unknown for most of the 78 populations of marine mammals included in the report”
OH WELL, it’s UNKNOWN, definitely time to PANIC then…..
It’s unknown how often I might be attached by a unicorn here on the North Coast of the USA (southern shore of Lake Ontario) so my normal reaction would be to PANIC about unicorn attacks….
Heck, I better prepare a unicorn defense strategy right away, can never be too careful when it comes to UNKNOWN risks in your day to day life….
What will I do about unknown Sasquatch’s here ??? ON NOES…..
Cheers, KevinK

March 21, 2015 10:19 pm

I read this paper but couldn’t be bothered with a post…
However, in response to a SCIENCE magazine news item (“Breaking news and analysis from the world of science policy”) http://news.sciencemag.org/biology/2015/03/first-comprehensive-review-arctic-s-marine-mammals-highlights-policy-challenges
I left this comment, in part:
“There is no mention of the role of natural variability in sea ice conditions mentioned in this paper: not of the effects of the AMO in the Barents Sea, nor of the well-documented influx of heavy spring ice that affects the Southern Beaufort Sea every ten years or so (which was the cause of the recent decline in polar bears in that region).
Implying that all the blame for changes in population size of AMM (noted recently or expected in the near future) can be placed squarely on global-warming-caused sea ice declines is unscientific and unsupportable. Arctic sea ice is not a naturally stable habitat.
The message of this paper seems to be: “Protect Arctic Marine Mammals even though we don’t really know how much (or even if), many of their populations have been affected by recent sea ice declines that we blame on global warming (without any consideration of natural variability) – and afterwards, give us the money to find out what’s happening.”
But I note also that a similar paper (“Quantifying the sensitivity of arctic marine mammals to climate-induced habitat change”), written by a subset of the same authors (Laidre, Stirling, Lowry, Wiig, Heide-Jørgensen, Ferguson), was published in 2008 ahead of the 2009 IPCC meeting in Copenhagen.
Its concluding sentence said:
“Although it remains difficult to accurately factor in the consequences of climate warming on assessments of population sizes and trends for most species of Arctic marine mammals, it remains critical to do so because the available evidence suggests alterations to Arctic sea ice and species ecology will be significant, assuming the climate continues to warm as predicted by the IPCC.”
The concluding sentence of this 2015 paper, published online ahead of the upcoming 2015 IPCC meeting in December, says:
“We suggest that common ground can be found if all stakeholders recognize AMMs [Arctic Marine Mammals] as iconic species with inherent value and as resources connected to the well-being of humans who harvest, interact, and live with them. Accurate scientific data—currently lacking for many species—will be key to making informed and effective decisions about the conservation challenges and tradeoffs facing AMMs in the 21st century.”
[List of authors: Kristin L. Laidre, Harry Stern, Kit M. Kovacs, Lloyd Lowry, Sue E. Moore, Eric V. Regehr, Steven H. Ferguson, Øystein Wiig, Peter Boveng, Robyn P. Angliss, Erik W. Born, Dennis Litovka, Lori Quakenbush, Christian Lydersen, Dag Vongraven, and Fernando Ugarte]
Politics or Science: what do you think? Or just a plea for continued grant support?
Dr. Susan Crockford, zoologist

Reply to  polarbearscience
March 21, 2015 11:10 pm

of course it’s a self-serving plea for grant support… in an era of declining US science budget outlays.
To succeed in today’s hyper-competitive grant chase by young university govt grant-supported researchers, anything that can distinguish oneself from the field with the political overseers monitoring political correctness makes statements of fealty to the CO2 AGW religion too common.

Reply to  polarbearscience
March 22, 2015 5:52 pm

Hmmm…how much grant support do you get Susan???

timg56
Reply to  polarbearscience
March 24, 2015 2:05 pm

You mean iconic isn’t a scientific term?
As I mentioned above, Dr Laidre’s use of the term icon was a dead giveaway this paper was not about science. And how anyone can reach conclusions and suggest solutions when they admit to not having any data is beyond me. Unless they possessed their conclusions and solutions prior to conducting their research. In that case who needs data?
Also interesting is how they apparently haven’t moved their research forward in the 6 years since their 2009 paper. They didn’t know enough then and they still don’t know enough.

Dirtman
March 21, 2015 11:03 pm

They say polar bears are “indicators of ecosystem health”? Well then it’s obvious that the ecosystem is in great shape!

ROM
March 21, 2015 11:03 pm

Rather than this constant barrage of garbage on the declining populations of polar bears, I would like to see a real life article on WUWT from a couple of Inuits who live and work in areas where polar bears are to be found.
Even better if the Inuits were of the older generation and from different regions and could recount their experiences and opinions on past and present polar bear numbers.
Even a transcript of an interview with a few inuits would go a long way towards clarifying the whole deal on polar bear numbers. and on a blog as prominent as WUWT it would be very hard to counter any points the locals raised on polar bear numbers based on their personal anecdotal and /or written experiences.
As seems so usual today with the dismal depths that so much of science has now sunk to a point where models have become the new reality in an almost total disconnect with real time reality and real time science in so many disciplines, the actual people on the ground, the locals are rarely if ever quoted or I strongly suspect ever even consulted and asked for their experiences and opinions
After all why ask them ?. They don’t have a university degree. They aren’t eligible for any funding and are therefore just ignorant yokels such is the apparent contempt now evident in so many scientific circles for anybody not self designated as a “Scientist”.
A case of; O’ Bow humbly all ye of lower caste .
Well lets just suggest that out here and far from the climate and polar bear fairies at the bottom of the University garden the former respectful attitude towards all things science is fast being reversed.
For many of us out here in that “wilderness”, those far back blocks that can only be reached after an hour’s drive from the city on the freeway, the new and ignorant “yokels” are increasingly being seen as those “out of this world”, ivory towered, lavishly funded and thoroughly ignorant of real life, degreed “experts” who do little but look at their computer screens and play with their models in their A/C ivory towers and then proclaim that they are the ones who know the truth and that truth is to be obeyed to the smallest tittle.
It shall be handed down from the Ivory Towers on the tablets of the various scientific Pravdas and all shall look and read and marvel at the wisdom and knowledge of the Great Ones in their Ivory towers.
Cynicism about the increasing avalanche of scientific vapour ware pronouncements is rising very rapidly out here in streets of those same “back blocks”.
The natives know damn well that their hard earned is being splurged mightily and almost exclusively for the climate science troughers benefit and they are liking it less and less.
A good friend of mine who was delegated to put Australia’s contribution into the Doomsday Seed Collection Millennium Vault on Spitzbergen told me that in Spitzbergen at least, nobody went anywhere anymore even as a group without carrying a rifle to hopefully frighten off the burgeoning numbers of polar bears which are becoming very aggressive.
Mostly a shot or two will frighten one off but if the “frightening” fails and the bear keeps coming it’s a case of shoot to kill or else!
If you really want to know what is happening out there it’s always a good idea to ask a few of the knowledgeable locals.
Sometimes the answers will surprise the “experts” no end and create quite a few very red faces.

March 21, 2015 11:40 pm

Why are an Applied Physics Laboratory and NASA involved in counting wildlife?

Robdel
Reply to  phillipbratby
March 22, 2015 12:03 am

That is where the money is.

mikewaite
Reply to  Robdel
March 22, 2015 1:52 am

But it will not be for much longer if their plea to restrain greenhouse gases by various taxes and the donation of 100s of billions/yr of tax dollars to India , China and Russia goes ahead as planned.
I do not believe that these and similar authors , funded by the US taxpayer, realise that their researches can only be conducted on the present scale in a thriving economy based in part on a reasonable cost of energy and raw materials. Clearly human interference in the Arctic needs a careful approach , but the proposed financial measures will not help, IMO.

Richard111
March 22, 2015 1:04 am

Any news on how successful the Russian icebreakers have been in keeping their Arctic sea routes open?

ren
March 22, 2015 1:05 am

Distribution of ozone in the stratosphere is that shared the polar vortex over the North Pole. Circulation in the stratosphere over North America is completely reversed. This means that the influx Arctic air to southeast US and to Europe.

Justthinkin
March 22, 2015 1:28 am

But, but, but. What about the poor Arctic hares, foxes, and wolves? I’ll bet next years wages these twits haven’t even been north of 50. And no. Seeing a poly bear isn’t the last thing you do, unless you are totally stupid. Been there, and you give them a wide berth. Besides, seals taste better to them.

Admad
March 22, 2015 1:34 am

My polar bear song:

ren
March 22, 2015 2:26 am

The temperature in Hudson Bay.
http://oi62.tinypic.com/2n23dli.jpg

George Lawson
March 22, 2015 2:59 am

“The summer period increased by more than 20 weeks, or about five months, in the Barents Sea off Russia”
How do these people define ‘The summer period’ ? If it increased by five months in the Arctic, it must have done the same everywhere else in the Northern Hemisphere, no not five days, or even five weeks, but a blistering five months!!!.So it’s far, far worse than we thought. Question: Did anyone else find their summer had increased by five months? How do these people come to such ridiculous conclusions when we know, amongst other things that this year’s melt is not a record? And even if any element of their scaremongering prognostications have any merit, I’m quite sure the Polar Bears, which are at record numbers at the moment, will have the common sense to move a little further North to breed and find their food if their skating rink becomes a tad smaller. I wonder whether Kristin Laidre would help my understanding of her research by answering my queries through these columns?.

Reply to  George Lawson
March 22, 2015 4:51 am

I watched her video from May 2014 (Kristin Laidre). At least she didn’t talk about climate change or global warming or doom and gloom in the arctic in this talk. Interesting background.
https://www.girls-can-do.org/kristin-laidre/

Lallatin
March 22, 2015 4:10 am

“Send a seal to Snowball” letter follows.

March 22, 2015 4:33 am

“…The overall numbers and trends due to climate change are unknown for most of the 78 populations of marine mammals included in the report: beluga, narwhal and bowhead whales; ringed, bearded, spotted, ribbon, harp and hooded seals; walruses; and polar bears.
The paper reviews population sizes and trends over time, if known, for each group, ranging from millions of ringed seals to fewer than a hundred beluga whales in Northern Canada’s Ungava Bay.
“Accurate scientific data – currently lacking for many species – will be key to making informed and efficient decisions about the conservation challenges and tradeoffs in the 21st century,” Laidre said…”

We don’t know! But it is important!
Doubletalk by the clueless who are only doing what NASA demands.

“…The publicly available report also divides the Arctic Ocean into 12 regions, and calculates the changes in the dates of spring sea ice retreat and fall freeze-up from NASA satellite images taken between 1979 and 2013.
Reductions in the sea ice cover, it finds, are “profound.” The summer ice period was longer in most regions by five to 10 weeks. The summer period increased by more than 20 weeks, or about five months, in the Barents Sea off Russia…”

From Northern sea ice maximums through to 2013 when the increase in sea ice just starts.

“…The species most at risk from the changes are polar bears and ice-associated seals…”

Based on false advertising, Nat Geo and it is part of the NASA requirement to say so.

“…The study recommends:
•Maintaining and improving co-management with local and governmental entities for resources that are important to the culture and well-being of local and indigenous peoples.
•Recognizing variable population responses to climate change and incorporating those into management. In the long term, loss of sea ice is expected to be harmful to many Arctic marine mammals, however many populations currently exhibit variable responses.
•Improving long-term monitoring while recognizing monitoring for all species will be impossible. Alternatives include collecting valuable data from subsistence harvests, using remote methods to track changes in habitat, and selecting specific subpopulations as indicators.
•Studying and mitigating the impacts of increasing human activities including shipping, seismic exploration, fisheries and other resource exploration in Arctic waters.
•Recognizing the limits of protected species legislation. A balanced approach with regard to regulating secondary factors, such as subsistence harvest and industrial activity, will be needed, since protected species legislation cannot regulate the driver of habitat loss…”

And isn’t it amazing what looking at pictures of sea ice reveals to the emotional and gullible. So of course we need legislation that targets the driver of habitat loss; whatever that might be.

“…While the report aims to bring attention to the status and future of Arctic mammals, the authors hope to provoke a broader public response.
“We may introduce conservation measures or protected species legislation, but none of those things can really address the primary driver of Arctic climate change and habitat loss for these species,” Laidre said. “The only thing that can do that is the regulation of greenhouse gases.”

Alarums and disaster!! Disaster upon disaster! Give us your money and allegiance!

Editor
March 22, 2015 4:35 am

The only thing that can do that is the regulation of greenhouse gases.” [Laidre said]
That’s a very very strange statement, given that the study did not at any point or in any way look at greenhouse gases.

Gamecock
Reply to  Mike Jonas
March 22, 2015 5:42 am

The entire report has the air of an 8th grade science fair project.

PiperPaul
Reply to  Mike Jonas
March 22, 2015 6:18 am

“The only thing that can get more government funding do that is the</strike advocating for the regulation of greenhouse gases.”
There, that’s more truthful (but since when has truth mattered when it comes to trillion dollar government solutions to non-problems?).

March 22, 2015 4:43 am

Loss of sea ice and warming temperatures are shifting already fragile Northern ecosystems.

How fragile the Arctic can be if the polar bear numbers have 5-folded since 1960’s when this happened in the area?
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/c/c9/Tsar_photo11.jpg
Ask any dedicated environmentalist – that should have desolated the area for about million years or so.

PiperPaul
Reply to  jaakkokateenkorva
March 22, 2015 6:22 am

I don’t understand what growing gigantic, solitary mushrooms in the Arctic has to do with polar bear species survival. I suppose they could eat them instead of seals, though…

Jaakko Kateenkorva
Reply to  PiperPaul
March 22, 2015 7:21 am

Heard of Tsar Bomba? If not, check it out.

Reply to  PiperPaul
March 22, 2015 8:18 am

Might as well just post some of the info. Russia tested this and other nuclear weapons on Novaya Zemlya islands in Arctic Russia. I would imagine some polar bears “felt it”.
http://www.tsarbomba.org/Tsar-Bomba-Map-and-Location.html

Reply to  PiperPaul
March 22, 2015 8:28 am

Here’s another link stating that they used this location for 40 years to test nuclear weapons and etc.:
http://www1.american.edu/ted/ice/novalya.htm

Reply to  PiperPaul
March 22, 2015 8:53 am

More info on Novaya Zemlya and polar bears from “Wackapedia”:
“The ecology of Novaya Zemlya is influenced by its severe climate, but the region nevertheless supports a diversity of biota. One of the most notable species present is the polar bear, whose population in the Barents Sea region is genetically distinct from other polar bear subpopulations.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novaya_Zemlya

rah
Reply to  PiperPaul
March 22, 2015 3:16 pm

Piper. Mushrooms have no nutritional value.

Reply to  PiperPaul
March 22, 2015 8:48 pm

oh no! Do these scientists know they might encounter a Godzilla strain of Polar bear?

Alx
March 22, 2015 5:05 am

Bringing out the cuddly white pure polar bears again for propaganda purposes.
Pathetic.

Yirgach
Reply to  Alx
March 23, 2015 8:47 am

Cue the Cuteness!
Here is our indomitable authoress with one of her most cuddly:
http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/_people/laidre_kristin_bio.jpg

knr
March 22, 2015 5:44 am

You really have to wonder how these animals managed to survive through 100 of thousands of years of climate change , given that they now seem to be unable to survive changes.
Meanwhile
‘The overall numbers and trends due to climate change are unknown for most of the 78 populations of marine mammals included in the report: ‘ not that will stop them from making claims of ‘doom ‘

Goldrider
March 22, 2015 6:42 am

Isn’t it time NASA went to the Moon or something? Leave the critters alone–they’ve adapted to sea ice changes a hundred times before. Want to do something for them, maybe shoot fewer and quit dumping plastic trash in the ocean would be a start!

March 22, 2015 6:42 am

Reblogged this on Norah4you's Weblog and commented:
When will they ever learn? IF NASA:s figures this time is accurate, Which isn’t proven, Their own lines regarding lowest sea-ice is false!
According to official figures for Polar Bears counting, not interest organisations of CO2-believers, there are around 22 000 polar bears, not 25 000, but that doesn’t matter –
In March 2011 each Polar Bear alone (counted on 22 000 individs) had 634 square kilometers alone to walk on.
Today they have 636 square kilometers….. As far as I know 636 is more than 634? 😛
Anyhow you can compare with Manhattan 58,8 km² respectively New York City 783,66 km² (land) thus you see that each Ice Bear have more than 80% of NYC area to walk on sea ice alone if anyone of them wants to…….

ren
March 22, 2015 8:06 am

Where will be the polar vortex in the April Fool’s Day?
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_z70_nh_f240.gif

rah
March 22, 2015 8:06 am

Fact: The US government is constantly meddling with data for it’s own purposes.
Here is the latest example. They won’t even leave hurricane record data alone. Here is another example from ‘Not A Lot of People Know That’: https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2015/03/22/wikipedia-rewrite-history-part-ii/
Hurricane Camille was long recognized as the most powerful hurricane recorded to have made land fall on the mainland of the United States. Recently someone noticed that Wikipedia had revised the maximum wind speed recorded down from previous entries. Turns out Wikipedia was revised because NOAA changed it’s data because of a program called ‘The Atlantic Hurricane Database Re-analysis Project’.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data_sub/re_anal.html
Fact: No data is safe in the hands of the US Government. Integrity, history, science, and facts, mean nothing to them. They have revised and tampered with everything from temperature records and recorded data to unemployment figures. Now it’s hurricane data.
The country I once swore to defend has a government who’s conduct is no longer defensible.

Editor
Reply to  rah
March 22, 2015 11:03 am

The hurricane reanalysis project was started by Chris Landsea after he joined the NHC after his stint at Colorado State University where he studied under Bill Gray. From that experience he learned that the US hurricane record, especially for older storms, was quite poor and could be quite better. I’m not familiar with problems with Camille’s data, but it was such a small storm I wouldn’t be surprised if some data came from questionable estimates.
BTW, Landsea resigned from the IPCC in a dispute with Kenneth Trenberth. I had a lot of respect for him before that. Please read http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/science_policy_general/000318chris_landsea_leaves.html

rah
Reply to  Ric Werme
March 22, 2015 11:54 am

Oh, yes. I would like to see how they down graded it. the Hurricane Hunters registered 190 mph winds just before land fall. Now NOAA says it was 175 mph. And that is what I contest. No measurements when it actually came ashore are available since all the instrumentation was destroyed. So the 200 mph wind speed at land fall was an estimate based on damage.
What is the justification for dropping the historic wind speed recorded by an aircraft specifically equipped to take scientific measurements by 15 mph when the storm was less than 100 mi from land fall? What evidence do they have that the original measurements were wrong?
Like several other particularly potent storms, such as Andrew, Camille was compact as you point out. But I have no idea why that would make measurements taken of the storm less accurate than they would be for a larger storm.

Editor
Reply to  Ric Werme
March 22, 2015 12:35 pm

The hurricane hunter planes gauge hurricane winds several ways. This may not be complete, it’s from memory:
1) Flight level air speed minus ground speed.
Today it’s done with GPS assistance. I don’t know how it was done in 1969.
2) Dropsondes
Instrument packages dropped into the eyewall that radio back reports or temperature and air pressure as they desend. Again, GPS today, I don’t know for certain how they reported wind speed in 1969.
3) Water appearance
The visual appearance of the ocean surface is a very important measure of wind at sealevel. However, it’s an approximate measure.
Basically, the accurate data the hurricane hunters had were temperatures, air pressures and flight level air speed. They also have empirical data for the wind profile from sea level up for typical storms, I don’t know if that could be used with Camille, I do know some storms don’t fit the standard profile.
I have to go grocery shopping, so I can’t do much digging. Check out https://coast.noaa.gov/hes/docs/postStorm/H_CAMILLE.pdf – it says the highest winds were estimated at 160 mph with gusts to 190 mph. It may be that the 190 mph that has been set aside was from the max gust in that report, and people should have used the 160 mph sustained wind speed. If so, then the reanalysis project has added 15 mph to the the NOAA report.

rah
Reply to  Ric Werme
March 22, 2015 2:39 pm

So now your saying that Camille was barely a CAT V? I call BS!

Editor
Reply to  Ric Werme
March 22, 2015 3:26 pm

I just read an earlier reanalysis done by a storm chaser at http://extremeplanet.me/2012/06/20/hurricane-camille-was-not-a-category-five/ . His conclusion was that Camille at landfall was between 120mph and 145mph and a pressure well over 909 mb. The discussion/debate that follows is very interesting.
Oh – this reanalysis was done by a private citizen, though he has volunteered at the NWS. He has a lot of references, data, and analysis of storm damage.
It appears that information from hurricane hunter planes was lacking:

Hurricane Camille was last intercepted by Hurricane Hunters more than 150 miles south of its final landfall point near Pass Christian, approximately 24 hours prior to crossing the coastline (NWS, 1969). While rarely mentioned, this final offshore flight suffered mechanical problems and failed to intercept the storm’s eyewall, so the data regarding pressure and windspeed was estimated in order to fill the chronological gap. No reconnaissance flights were flown into the hurricane thereafter, so the 190mph wind figure has no basis in direct observation.

A survey of structural damage by the National Bureau of Standards concluded the peak winds were 125 mph.

Editor
Reply to  Ric Werme
March 22, 2015 3:34 pm

So now your saying that Camille was barely a CAT V? I call BS!
Call whatever you want, I have reasonably thick skin. The only claim I’ve made is “If Landsea says Camille was 175 mph, it was probably 175 mph” over on Paul Homewood’s blog.

Editor
March 22, 2015 8:20 am

Are Polar Bears even a real species?
Polar bears are essentially white grizzly bears… Setting aside the fatally flawed premise that Arctic Sea ice is vanishing and ignoring the fact that Polar Bears sailed right on through the much warmer Holocene Climatic Optimum… If Polar Bears and Grizzlies can interbreed, producing genetically viable offspring, they are of the same species. Therefore, as long as Grizzlies, Kodiaks and other brown bears live, Polar Bears, as a species, cannot go extinct.
The traditional definition of “species” as applied to sexually reproducing animals is: If two animals can mate and produce genetically viable offspring, they are of the same species.
A horse and a donkey can mate and produce a mule; which normally cannot reproduce. A mule is not genetically viable. Therefore horses and donkeys are separate species.
A Collie and a Dachshund can mate and produce a really odd looking dog; which can reproduce. Collies and Dachshunds are of the same species.
Using the traditional definition, Polar Bears and Grizzlies are of the same species.
The modern, revisionist definition of species is: If two organisms would not normally mate and produce offspring; they are of separate species. Using the modern, junk science definition. Roseanne Barr is of a different species than 99.9999% of all human males.
The “experts” classified Polar Bears as a unique species because they looked and acted different than Brown Bears. This was a mistake…

The Brown Bear: Father of the Polar Bear?
Article #1314
by Ned Rozell
——————————————————————————–
This article is provided as a public service by the Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, in cooperation with the UAF research community. Ned Rozell is a science writer at the institute.
There’s something different about the brown bears of Southeast Alaska’s ABC islands.
They look like your average Alaska grizzly: milk-chocolate colored fur, a humped back, and a size and reputation that gives humans something to fear when walking the wilds of Alaska.
The difference in the brown bears of the ABC (Admiralty, Baranof and Chichagof) islands isn’t visible. It’s in their DNA. Researchers found the bears are more closely related to polar bears than they are to other brown bears.
The bears’ baffling background was discovered when Gerald Shields and Sandra Talbot of the University of Alaska Fairbanks Institute of Arctic Biology began analyzing the DNA of brown bears from around the world. Talbot, a graduate student, extracted DNA (deoxyribonucleic acid, the genetic information warehouse in the chromosomes of every living cell) from hundreds of Alaska brown bears. Starting with slivers of kidney or muscle tissue attained from hunting guides, Talbot used a process called polymerase chain reaction to copy tiny fragments of DNA millions of times.
When the DNA was in a readable form, Shields, a molecular evolutionary biologist, saw the DNA from brown bears on the ABC islands brown bears was unique when compared to brown bears anywhere else on the planet. Their closest relative is an unlikely one–the polar bear.
A polar bear’s white coat, meat-only diet, and preference to live near and on sea ice make it hard to mistake for a brown bear. But Alaska’s two largest bear species are closely related–so closely that brown and polar bears have mated in zoos and the union has resulted in fertile offspring. According to the Alaska Department of Fish and Game’s “Wildlife Notebook Series,” both types of bear had a common ancestor that was neither brown nor polar bear. As each adapted to different environments, the bears developed enough unique characteristics that they looked and acted like separate species.
With DNA evidence, Shields and his colleagues have launched a new hypothesis–brown bears may have appeared first; polar bears may have arisen from brown bears that wandered north and, over thousands of years, began to sprout white fur and teeth that were better for ripping apart seals than munching berries.
[…]
http://www2.gi.alaska.edu/ScienceForum/ASF13/1314.html

Polar Bears probably evolved as a distinct subspecies of Brown Bears because a group of Sangamonian (Eemian) brown bears headed north during warm phases of the last interglacial, just like these Grizzlies are…

Grizzly Bears on Ice
At the northern edge of the species’ range, a growing number of grizzlies are eking out a living in territory traditionally dominated by polar bears
02-01-2006 // Ed Struzik
ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH of tree line in Canada’s western Arctic, Andrew Derocher picked up the tracks of four grizzly bears following a herd of caribou across hard snow and ice toward the coast. Derocher, a University of Alberta biologist, wasn’t sure whether the tracks had been left by a family or by a male following a female with two cubs. If it turned out to be the latter, he said, the mother and offspring could be in trouble. Contrary to what may appear in popular movies and books, a lone male grizzly is more likely to kill and eat bear cubs than befriend them.
[…]
Barren ground grizzlies are among the most enigmatic of Arctic mammals. Few in number and rarely seen, they are as much myth as reality.
[…]
What grizzlies are actually doing up there in the kingdom of their great white cousins is not clearly understood. Biologists have long considered the differences between the two bears significant enough to warrant separate species status. Physical distinctions are obvious: Polar bears are white rather than brown, which helps camouflage the predators from their prey on the sea ice. They are also generally larger, and have heads and bodies that are much more elongated, and therefore better adapted to penetrate seal lairs. Their larger, sharper teeth allow them to tear up seals efficiently, and shorter claws and larger feet make it easier for polar bears to travel on sea ice and swim across great expanses of water.
Many Eskimos believe that rising temperatures in the Arctic explain why grizzly bears–as well as marten, wolverines and several other species of birds and mammals–are showing up in extreme northern places where they were rarely, if ever, seen before. Global warming, they say, is creating conditions that are more favorable for these animals, at least in the short term.
While most scientists see that idea as a genuine possibility, experts like Canadian Wildlife Service biologist Ian Stirling, who has studied polar bears for more than 30 years, suspects that some grizzlies have always been venturing onto the ice. Perhaps, Stirling says, “what we’re witnessing today is behavior similar to the evolutionary process that resulted in polar bears filling a rich but vacant niche as supreme predator of the sea ice.”
[…]
http://www.nwf.org/News-and-Magazines/National-Wildlife/Animals/Archives/2006/Grizzly-Bears-on-Ice.aspx

I Polar Bears and Grizzlies are different species, then Chihuahuas and Siberian Huskies are different species.
If you look at Fig. 1 of Miller et al., 2006, you’ll see that Polar Bears fit right into Clade 2 with the ABC Islands Brown Bears (ursus arctos sitkensis). Barnes et al., 2002 featured a similar diagram that included fossil subspecies of ursus arctos; once again, Polar Bears fit right into ursus arctos…
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/295/5563/2267/F1.large.jpg
http://www.webpages.uidaho.edu/~joyce/davis/Miller%20bear.pdf
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/295/5563/2267.full
There has never been any scientific basis to categorize Polar Bears as a distinct species. It is clearly a subspecies of ursus arctos.

rah
Reply to  David Middleton
March 22, 2015 2:42 pm

OK so show us the Brown bear-Polar bear hybrid.

Reply to  rah
March 22, 2015 3:48 pm

http://www.mnn.com/sites/default/files/styles/node-gallery-display/public/grolar.jpg

losely Related
According to Paetkau, the genetics expert, grizzly and polar bears are the most closely related of the living bear species. The two species are close enough that the hybrid theoretically could have successfully mated with either a polar bear or a grizzly.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/05/polar-bears_2.html

Reply to  rah
March 22, 2015 9:04 pm

Not long ago there was a prolonged legal case when the Alaskan State Wildlife Troopers couldn’t make up their mind if a guy had shot a brownish Polar Bear or whiteish Brown Bear and in the end they had to find that the animal was a hybrid based on DNA testing. The hunter had a Polar Bear tag and the legal case was dropped since it was found he hadn’t entirely misidentified the animal. Not sure if they let him keep the hide.