Australians are more likely to die during unseasonably cold winters than hotter than average summers, QUT research has found.
Across the country severe winters that are colder and drier than normal are a far bigger risk to health than sweltering summers that are hotter than average.
QUT Associate Professor Adrian Barnett, a statistician with the Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation and the lead researcher of the study, said death rates in Australian cities were up to 30 per cent higher in winter than summer.
The researchers analysed temperature, humidity and mortality data from 1988 to 2009 for Adelaide Brisbane, Melbourne, Perth and Sydney.
Professor Barnett said the finding that hotter or more humid summers had no effect on mortality was “surprising”.
“We know that heatwaves kill people in the short-term, but our study did not find any link between hotter summers and higher deaths,” he said.
“The increase in deaths during colder winter could be because Australians are well-prepared for whatever summer throws at them, but are less able to cope with cold weather. There isn’t the same focus on preparing for cold weather as there is for hot weather, for example through public health campaigns or even wearing the right sort of clothes.
“The strongest increase in deaths during a colder winter was in Brisbane, the city with the warmest climate, with an extra 59 deaths a month on average for a one degree decrease in mean winter temperature.”
“Brisbane has the mildest winter of the five cities but has the greatest vulnerability. We believe this is because most homes are designed to lose heat in summer, which also allows cold outdoor air to get inside during winter.”
Professor Barnett said the findings of the study, published in the journal Environmental Research, could trigger more prevention programs to help reduce the future burden on the health system.
“Excess winter deaths have a significant impact on health systems across Australia,” he said.
“There are extra demands on doctors, hospitals and emergency departments in winter months, especially for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases which are triggered by exposure to cold weather.
“Our findings show the winter increases in mortality are predictable so ramping up public health measures, such as influenza vaccinations and insulating homes, particularly for vulnerable groups, should be considered to try to reduce the impact of severe winters.”
###
*Individual city data is available*
Five children and two adults have frozen to death in different parts of Syria, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said on Monday, after heavy sleet and snowstorms hit the Middle East causing a remarkable drop in temperatures.
Latin American Herald Tribune, January 13,2015
http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2369048&CategoryId=12395
Reblogged this on gottadobetterthanthis and commented:
–
I say it all the time. Cold kills; warmer is better.
the only maximums this century were recorded in Tasmania and those are not really hot compared to other places in the world. All the other records are from long time ago.
heating takes energy, while cooling takes water (sweat). energy typically costs more than water and thus is less available than water. thus, it is easier to deal with a warm summer than a cold winter.
When folks confront me with Climate Change, I usually ask during the conversation, “why does the flue virus reach its peak in the winter months”? Is man more susceptible to cold climate than hot?
Generally speaking, yes. Bacterial infections are often worst in summer, when living conditions (outdoors) are better for bacteria. Viruses which can only multiply inside living cells often do better in winter when the host organism is often in a worse condition physically and more susceptible.
People tend to congregate and stay indoors with limited fresh air circulating for longer periods of time during cold weather. Makes it easier for viruses (or should it be viri?) to spread.
“Professor Barnett said the finding that hotter or more humid summers had no effect on mortality was “surprising”.”
– wow
Across the planet, cold weather kills far more than hot weather. All statistics show this. If it is too hot, generally people slow down or do things at night (I grew up in Arizona and Death Valley) but in extreme cold, the smallest lapse in controlling the environment and one dies, young or old.
When I was growing up, for example, during the brutal hot summers, we children would build our ‘tree houses’ in the ground by digging out a hollow and roofing it over with something. But when it is -20ºF, even if one builds an igloo, it is still brutally cold inside unless one can make a fire and has a lot of warm clothing.
The dangers are far greater.
Higher death rates in the winter is a surprise? I’m surprised at what some researchers are surprised about. Have they heard of influenza?
The results are not surprising. The data looks at annual death rates and those are unaffected by unusually hot summers because they do not kill healthy individuals but are fatal to those who are weak and near death. While tragic dying a few weeks early is not as big a deal as seeing a healthy individual robbed of years if not decades of life due to unseasonably cold temperatures. Time to move on because there is nothing here for the alarmists to see.
Wow they needed a study and were surprised by the results to tell us whst every adult with common sense already knew.
If they weren’t surprised at the results, their future funding might be cut off.
No surprise at all…
Comment re Excess Winter Mortality Rates in the Northern Hemisphere.
For the Southern Hemisphere, just read upside-down.
Regards, Allan
___________________________
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/11/07/warmest-year-brings-record-harvests-for-uk/#comment-1783235
[excerpt]
In Europe, many more people die of winter cold than summer heat – that is why there is a “Coefficient of Seasonal Variation in Mortality”, a nicer term for the “Excess WINTER Mortality Rate”. This is the greater percentage of people who die in the four winter months (December thru March) than in the warmer eight months of the year. These rates range from a low of about 10% in Scandinavian countries that adapt well to the cold, to about 20% in the UK, and up to about to 30% in Portugal. In England and Wales that is about 25,000 excess WINTER deaths per year. All across Europe these excess WINTER deaths of real people in an AVERAGE winter probably equals about one-quarter of a million souls.
The forecast for this winter is for brutal cold across Russia, with somewhat lesser cold reaching across western Europe and to the UK. Given Europe’s very high energy costs and possible energy shortages, I suggest that few rational people will be worried about global warming after this winter is over.
Bundle up good people – stay safe and warm.
Best to all, Allan
Excess Winter Mortality in Europe: a Cross Country Analysis Identifying Key Risk Factors
http://jech.bmj.com/content/57/10/784.full
Table 1 – Coefficient of seasonal variation in mortality (CSVM) in EU-14 (mean, 1988–97)
CSVM 95% CI
Austria 0.14 (0.12 to 0.16)
Belgium 0.13 (0.09 to 0.17)
Denmark 0.12 (0.10 to 0.14)
Finland 0.10 (0.07 to 0.13)
France 0.13 (0.11 to 0.15)
Germany 0.11 (0.09 to 0.13)
Greece 0.18 (0.15 to 0.21)
Ireland 0.21 (0.18 to 0.24)
Italy 0.16 (0.14 to 0.18)
Luxembourg 0.12 (0.08 to 0.16)
Netherlands 0.11 (0.09 to 0.13)
Portugal 0.28 (0.25 to 0.31)
Spain 0.21 (0.19 to 0.23)
UK 0.18 (0.16 to 0.20)
Mean 0.16 (0.14 to 0.18)
******************
Finns have the lowest number there, why? It is a fairly cold northern country.
Finns die to infections during cold seasons, but people have central heating and good insulation in apartments.
They also drown and/or die in alcohol related causes/ domestic accidents the few days temperature exceeds +25C. So no overall fluctuation that much.
Hugh said:
“Finns have the lowest number there, why? It is a fairly cold northern country.”
Allan said:
“These rates range from a low of about 10% in Scandinavian countries that adapt well to the cold, to about 20% in the UK, and up to about to 30% in Portugal.”
Adapting well to the cold includes good home insulation, central heating, dressing properly for winter, etc.
Cold northern countries adapt well to the cold, while warmer countries apparently do not.
The conclusion is that adaptation to the cold is the key to lower Winter Mortality Rates.
Decades ago Canada subsidized better home insulation, etc., to encourage energy conservation – before global warming mania became the current “madness of crowds”. Better home insulation was and remains a sensible idea.
Although this rates about as surprising as bears doing their business in the woods, there is still a question of what is it about colder temperatures which causes higher mortality. You are not going to die of exposure in one overnight with temps getting down to zero (which takes pretty much all night anyway so the actual time at such a low temp is an hour or two at most, followed by a rapid warming when the sun comes up). I’ve spent winter nights in a tent in the West Australian desert and it is isn’t until about 3-4 am that the condensation starts forming on the inside – and it is gone in about an hour after sun-up.
Not sure if public awareness is much of an issue – in the UK there are exactly the same findings – despite the heavy attention paid to this in the media and by governments (exrta payments for winter fuel etc.).
The actual causes of the extra deaths are what need to be considered – in the UK I think these have been put down to respiratory causes (both acute ans chronic diseases) where the lower temperature exacerbates something else. I can see a potential for lack of activity being involved in turning a lung infection into pneumonia – with the cold weather predisposing people with such an infection to stay in bed. But some idea of who is dying and what they are dying from is needed here – not just the numbers.
Leigh Creek, Broken Hill and Tibooburra saw heavy storms overnight, finishing off central Australia’s great run of rain and storms. Leigh Creek was lashed by a heavy thunderstorm yesterday afternoon, with 57mm, including a burst of 10mm in 10 minutes. This is the biggest January fall at the Airport in 25 years of records. During the evening the northwest New South Wales town of Tibooburra, saw its third storm for the week that has brought around 30mm. This makes it the wettest January in at least 17 years. Further south, Broken Hill also gained a further 27mm, bringing its total for the week to 82mm. The reason for the heavy rain in the past week is that the monsoon trough worked its way south through the Northern Territory, before it linked up with a couple of troughs that have moved across the region in the past few days. Alice Springs has seen staggering rainfall in the past week, with 200-300mm spread across the region. This is approximately double the summer average and almost an entire year’s average rainfall. Other areas have already seen more than their summer average, including Birdsville (southwest QLD) 101mm, Arkaroola (northeastern SA) 194mm, and Taralga (Southern Highlands NSW) 260mm. Dry weather is returning to central Australia today as the final trough moves east of the region today. It could be some time before we see widespread rains spread across central Australia again. – Weatherzone © Weatherzone 2015
Another effect of cold snaps in Queensland is house fires when people plug in heaters and electric blankets dragged out of long storage.
“We know that heatwaves kill people in the short-term, ” ….Well that’s OK, then, it’s when you get killed in the long-term (in winter) that you really have to be worried!
Those wusses in Brisbane! Put some clothes on. The coldest day on record was in July 2007 when the temperature droped to minus 0.1 degrees C at 6.39am. That’s not winter as many people from around the world can testify.The average winter minimum in Brisbane is 10 degrees C, maximum 20 degrees.
I was in Brisbane on the last day of winter a few years ago. The temperature was in the mid 30s (Celsius). The locals were all wearing pullovers and overcoats since it was still winter. The Git sat outside a nice friendly pub and enjoyed a lovely cold beer or three while wearing T-shirt and shorts kept for such special occasions. He missed the passing parade he would have enjoyed in Hobart on such a day!
Most of them don’t actually own any real winter clothes, the same way englishmen never own a pair of swimmers suitable for the beach.
Talking about cold – check out the Antarctic rim:
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif
our academics and ABC are not interested in cold weather!
13 Jan: ABC: Danielle Grindlay: Study shows ageing farmers sceptical of climate change, underestimate heat threat
A Monash University study of elderly farmers’ attitudes to extreme heat events, finds primary producers in northern Victoria are underestimating the threat.
History shows that old age and heat don’t mix and, if predictions ring true, both peak temperatures and the average age of farmers will continue to rise.
In 2009 Victoria saw 374 heat-associated deaths, most which were attributed to the record breaking heatwave that culminated in the Black Saturday bushfires…
But when Monash University’s Dr Matthew Carroll spoke with elderly farmers of one rural Victorian community, most didn’t believe they were at risk.
“They saw heat as a positive rather than a negative and didn’t really think of it as a health risk,” he said.
“Heatwaves have killed more than any of the other natural hazards that Australia faces … but it’s just not that noticeable.
“It needs to be on the agenda.”
As part of a heat research study, Dr Carroll and his colleague Dr Margaret Loughnan spent time with 26 farmers over the age of 55 in Gannawarra Shire, northern Victoria…
Climate scientists’ predictions that Australia is facing a temperature rise of up to five degrees in the next century should therefore be of concern.
But Dr Carroll said the group was ‘largely sceptical’ of climate change.
“Everybody judges things from their own experience,” he said.
“There is a lot [who believe] that it’s just big government pushing the agenda and so on.”…
Dr Carroll refers to research that suggests Australia could see up to 6,300 heat-related deaths by 2050, up from 1,115 in 2003.
He said a national response is required but real change will come from grass-root initiatives and localised education campaigns…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-12/ageing-farmers-underestimate-risk-of-heatwaves/6013392
By and large a sensible lot, our farmers. Our local rural rag told us that 2014 was the hottest year evah when our crops were telling us the opposite. Perhaps crops have more brains than some academics. One ex-friend was telling farmers across Australia that they needed to prepare for the continuing decrease in rainfall and increasing drought. BoM/CSIRO data show rainfall increased by ~75 mm over the 20th Century. Pan evaporation rates have decreased over the last 50 years, so not only is there more moisture in the soil, more is being retained where the crops need it. The second half of the 20thC had ~9% more rainfall than the first half.
When tasked with this, my ex-friend said that the BoM/CSIRO data was wrong and using all the available data was “cherry picking”. Data here for the curious:
http://www.bom.gov.au/web01/ncc/www/cli_chg/timeseries/rain/0112/aus/latest.txt
At the SMH today, the resident environmental commenter states that Sydney is in “heat”. Summer, hot, no? Its not hot for Sydney. It has been VERY humid true, last night was ~95%, but NOT hot! Mr. Hannam, please stop your alramism!
I would be careful of confounders in any such seasonal comparison.
Winter is also an influenza season in both hemispheres, with the Southern Hemisphere’s winter seeding the following NH’s winter. Influenza is of course a big mortality factor in the elderly. Also Vitamin D levels follow seasonal sun exposure, and Vitamin D deficiency is well linked to immunity deficits.
The only relevant way to assess what’s happening is to long-term follow the summer’s and see if summer heat deaths increase in lock step with rising temps, or fall with lower summer temps.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013935114003661
Seasonal patterns in mortality have been recognised for decades, with a marked excess of deaths in winter, yet our understanding of the causes of this phenomenon is not yet complete. Research has shown that low and high temperatures are associated with increased mortality independently of season; however, the impact of unseasonal weather on mortality has been less studied. In this study, we aimed to determine if unseasonal patterns in weather were associated with unseasonal patterns in mortality. We obtained daily temperature, humidity and mortality data from 1988 to 2009 for five major Australian cities with a range of climates. We split the seasonal patterns in temperature, humidity and mortality into their stationary and non-stationary parts. A stationary seasonal pattern is consistent from year-to-year, and a non-stationary pattern varies from year-to-year. We used Poisson regression to investigate associations between unseasonal weather and an unusual number of deaths. We found that deaths rates in Australia were 20–30% higher in winter than summer. The seasonal pattern of mortality was non-stationary, with much larger peaks in some winters. Winters that were colder or drier than a typical winter had significantly increased death risks in most cities. Conversely summers that were warmer or more humid than average showed no increase in death risks. Better understanding the occurrence and cause of seasonal variations in mortality will help with disease prevention and save lives.
When I lived in England I was colder in winter than I was when I lived in Sweden, even though the temperatures were much lower in Sweden. Partly because English winter was damp and gloomy, while the Swedish winter was crisp and often sunny. (Glare off the snow!). Partly because the English know that their country was once part of the Roman Empire, and so imagine it has a Mediterranean climate and built accordingly. (The actual Romans knew better, and installed central heating, but it took more than a thousand years for that to be reintroduced.).
When I came back to Australia,about ten years ago, I came to Brisbane. At first the winters were cool, but not too bad. (Yes, the houses are even less well-adapted for cold weather than English houses.) Now, though, they seem to be getting colder. Is some sort of climate change happening?
Reviewing the high temperature records I can’t help but note that they are fairly old. A few fairly recent like Hobart, but for the most part they are over 30 years old. If you buy into the hype of CAGW, there should be no high temperature record older than a few years.
World record: Marble Bar in Western Australia recorded temperatures of more than 37.8°C (100°F) on 161 consecutive days — 30 October 1923 to 7 April 1924.
I remember hearing Phil Jones talking on ABC’s The Science Show more than a decade ago. He said that record high temperatures were a sign of global warming. Whereupon I looked at record high temperatures throughout Australia. Most were in the 1920s through the 1930s.
Cold kills in more ways than one. Generally speaking, a cold North Pacific means bad drought in an huge swath of the Western US. Global cold means vast areas of drought. As I write this, a vast area of California south of 38N latitude continues to be in drought. The Fall rains were not enough to break the drought, and now, in the height of the rainy season, a massive persistent Rex Block remains over us, where it has been since Christmas. That block is most likely due to the North Pacific returning to its cold condition after El Ninito sputtered. The SW US is in for a world of hurt.
One of the reasons why people die in the cold, is not just hypothermia or frost bite. Being diabetic type 2 and a son with Type 1, cold weather lowers the blood glucose in one’s body, more so when it is hot. Swimming is one way to lower your blood glucose level as your basal metabolism strives to keep your brain and organs supplied to the point you can pass out. My son was a talented swimmer, and was training and unfortunately the routine did not suit his diabetes. He had to cease training. I was born in UK, England, and can remember going to school and having my gloves pinched a lot by poorer kids just after the WWll. Arriving home with white fingers and toes. Sitting in front of the fire and getting brown marks on my bare legs. But the worse was in Cyprus. We went there on a army truck,and I fell into a snow drift. Getting home I had a severe bout of hypothermia. I survived.
Yes Australia in the last ice age was connected to PNG and Tasmania and off shore islands. But the only true glaciers were on high altitude in Tasmania, and also maybe the Snowy mountains. The tree line was much lower and rainforests were reduced. However, the Aborigines survived. I live in a temperate moist region, 3500 ft absl, in NW NSW, our temps drop all the time below 10 C at night. And lower during winter. But temps rise during the day. We rarely go up further than 30 C. Once in a while. As they say – ‘Only mad dogs and English men, go out in the midday sun’ (From India and the Raj) Most Mediterranean and middle eastern countries, have a siesta from 2 – 4 pm.
Anyway it is very warm today, but my brick home is cool and I refuse to use air conditioning, just a fan at night if needed. Timber and fibro or hardy plank houses are usually hotter and colder than brick. And I don’t heat my house in winter, just keep warm and with an electric blanket on watching TV in my bed. We live with it. Now I must leave and go out to buy milk or my coffee will be black. (I don’t heat my house mainly because I have bonsai inside, and the temperature generally doesn’t go below 10C).
Cheers from Oz.
The trouble with air conditioning and central heating, the occupants are turning themselves into hot house flowers. Then go out into the cold.
QUT is in Brisbane, so it shouldn’t have been a surprise to the researcher.
The old housing stock in Brisbane is wooden houses on stumps – known as a ‘Queenslander’. These have rough-sawn weatherboard externally, tongue-and-groove panelling on the interior, with a t&g ceiling, no insulation, open eaves and a tin roof. They also have wooden casement windows, and depending on which part of the giant Brisbane flood plain, are probably mostly on their 2nd or 3rd restumping by now, with all the cracks and draughts that something with dodgy foundations is expected to have.
The other issue is that most winter days, during the day when it is sunny, is like most northern european countries summer days. So people generally don’t have heavy winter clothes, the shops don’t really carry them (unless you pay a lot for fashionable stuff). Because most of the time the weather is very nice.
But it still gets down to cold temperatures overnight, and there are periods of bad weather, and most people have inadequate heating. Coupled with draughty houses, inadequate clothing and a ‘she’ll be right, it’ll warm up soon’ attitude, lots of people end up sick from cold weather.
Not included in this list is the number of people who perish each year from pulling a dusty old heater out of the cupboard on the first cold snap and setting fire to their house.
When I moved back from Europe I found myself a properly sealed house, and fitted it with AC and insulation. It’s still common to see people walking around in shorts and thongs in the middle of winter.