Guest Post by Bob Tisdale
Yesterday, November 24th, the Russian News Agency TASS published the article Russia to take advantage of global warming — chief of Russian weather service.
Isn’t that refreshing? Optimism about a warming world.
The article begins:
MOSCOW, November 24. /TASS/ The phenomenon of global warming will have its effect on Russia 2.5 times sooner than in the rest of the planet, Alexander Frolov, Chief of the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Rosgydromet) told a TASS-hosted briefing on Monday.
“Global warming might give certain advantages to Russia — a longer navigation period and a shorter heat supply season, which are very important for Russia because it is the coldest country. Areas where grain and bean crops might be harvested will be considerably enlarged, mostly in western Siberia and in the Urals, and a life comfort zone will be broadened, moving it up to the north,” Frolov told the briefing.
Frolov was also realistic, inasmuch as he discussed the downsides as well:
“The negative effects of global warming are a growing threat of forest and peat bog fires, and possible breaking of a traditional way of life of the indigenous population of the North. Russia must be prepared to survive under conditions both of water shortages and floods,” he said.
But water shortages and floods have existed in the past. And computer-model-based outlooks are debatable (simply speculation at this point) because climate models do not properly simulate precipitation and they cannot simulate the coupled ocean-atmosphere processes that impact precipitation around the globe. Additionally, climate models do not properly simulate polar amplification, which has a strong impact on Russia surface temperatures. Here’s a link to the Climate Model Failings category at my blog, for those who wish to confirm my statements in this paragraph.
The closing paragraph sounds odd, and I don’t have the time today to verify it.
Climate on earth has become warmer by 0.7 degrees on the average over a period of ten years, while climate in Russia has warmed by 0.43 degrees in the same period, the expert said.
Is there a typo in there? Here’s a link to the Russia surface temperature data from BEST.