“Warmest Year” Brings Record Harvests For UK

By Paul Homewood


From YAHOO News:

The UK is on course to experience the warmest and one of the wettest years since records began more than a century ago – sparking fears that future droughts and flash floods could cost lives.

New figures published by the Met Office show the period from January to October this year has been the warmest since records began in 1910 while it has also been the second wettest.

Unless November and December are extremely cold, 2014 will enter the record books as the hottest ever.

Experts say the increase is the result of climate change and warn that it could place a burden on the NHS as Britons struggling to cope with predicted heatwaves end up in hospital.

Bob Ward, policy director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change at the London School of Economics and Political Science, said the elderly and those with health problems are particularly at risk and could end up dying in the heat.

He warned that as Britain warms up it will also grow wetter – raising the spectre of flash floods with could cost lives and cause billions of pounds of damage to households and businesses.

Only a paid propagandist for global warming could warn us of droughts, after such a wet spell!

As for Yahoo, I am not sure why a “warning” needs to be issued. Either way, both they and Ward miss the point totally. There have been no heatwaves; on the contrary it has been a very pleasant summer, ranking 15th warmest since 1910.

When the statistics come in later this month, we are likely to see premature winter deaths much lower than last year. Meanwhile, a mild winter has enabled everybody to save on energy costs.

But the biggest news story of the lot has been the fantastic news that agricultural yields and output have hit record highs, thanks to the mild, wet winter, early spring and sunny summer.







DEFRA have now published full, provisional statistics for this year’s harvest.




And they comment:









Wheat yields now stand at record high levels, recovering from low levels last year (cold spring) and 2012 (cold,damp summer).






All of this is excellent news for farmers, the nation and families who will benefit from lower prices.

Of course, none of this has the slightest to do with “climate change”. With three of the last four years being the coldest since 1996 in the UK, this year’s warm weather has been just that – weather.

No month this year has been the warmest on record. It is simply that nine out of ten months this year have been above average. As the Met Office say,

Things like climate change you look at over a long period of time because we look at trends. So we can’t say it is warmer than other years because of climate change. It could just be natural variation


But with the Met Office projecting milder, wetter winters and sunny, dry summers, it seems clear that climate change will bring significant benefits to the UK. Not that you will hear any of this from the “expert” Bob Ward!

129 thoughts on ““Warmest Year” Brings Record Harvests For UK

  1. Yes, those inconvenient little truths just keeping up! As to the Wet Office predictions, their record over the last 10 years has been abysmal!

    • They are getting good at telling us what already happened… “Looking back, the climate did this… ” and then they make a mistake and go on again making a prediction… when will they ever learn.

  2. A steady rise in UK wheat yields from the 1950s to 1990s, as would be expected from technological advances. Why the flat line since the mid-1990s? Could it be that more extreme weather has been offsetting technology gains?

    • Oilseed rape was a great earner for farmers in the UK due to EU subsidies in the late 80’s and 90’s. Where there were fields of wheat were replaced with fields of yellow oilseed.

    • Mostly the malign hand of the EU CAP telling farmers how much they could grow. Much offsetting and alternative cropping in those years. It’s the sort of centralised planning your Democrats would love.

    • The big increase in the line between 1950 – 1980 was exceptional impact of the green revolution breeding improvements (short straw, better grain to straw ratio) and increased use of nitrogen fertilizer (lots of spare nitrates left over from explosives manufacturing). Since 1980 or so, wheat has been ticking along with maybe 0.5% yield increase per hectare each year, but most of this is lost in the variation due to weather and agricultural polices which have a big effect on what land farmers use for wheat.
      Environmental regulations on nitrate run-off and set-aside have affected what farmers grow (and how they grow it). This means that you grow the most profitable crops on the best land and wheat has sometimes been planted on poor land which does not give the same yield. Remember these are average yields over the whole country – the best wheat yields are well over 10-11 T/Ha now, but the average is hovering around 8.

    • “A steady rise in UK wheat yields from the 1950s to 1990s, as would be expected from technological advances”
      Technological advances do not occur just because you want them to. Some give the farmer a greater profit without a bigger yield and a lot of development is geared towards that because we are headed to a limit determined by nutrients.
      Here in Australia we had wheat production increase and area cultivated follow each other closely until the early 80s. There was then more efficient use of land until the drought of 8 years ago (which have always happened). because of better dry-land farming. That’s something that the UK could borrow if it ever needed.

  3. Bob Ward appears to be the problem here not the Met Office – Bob and others spinning Met Office data…
    From the Yahoo article
    “However, the Met Office cautioned against drawing too much from the figures – and stressed that the year is not finished yet.
    A spokeswoman said: “If we have an incredibly cold November and December, then it could end up being a mediocre year.
    “The reason we have records for set periods, for example monthly and annually, is so they can be quantified against each other year on year, otherwise anyone could make up a theory and anyone could come to a conclusion.
    “Things like climate change you look at over a long period of time because we look at trends.
    “So we can’t say it is warmer than other years because of climate change. It could just be natural variation.”
    I don’t have any problem with the Met Office statement here…

      • Yes, they need to keep the taxpayer teat wet. The RSS and UAH satelite figures show no chance of the hottest year.

      • The Met Office’s outlook to the end of 2014
        I have a problem with them which is their pure guess work even with a super computer:
        As we’ve discussed previously, the outlook assesses the likelihood of five different scenarios for both temperature and rainfall for the whole of the UK for the whole three months, based on the most probable prevailing weather patterns.
        It’s a bit like the science-equivalent of factoring the odds on a horse race and like any horse race, it’s always possible the favourite won’t win.
        Our latest three-month outlook suggests an increased risk of milder and wetter than average conditions for the period Oct-Nov-Dec based on our seasonal forecasts and those from other leading centres around the world.
        However, there are still substantial probabilities that average or opposite (ie cool and/or dry) conditions may occur. This is because there are many competing factors that determine what our weather will be like in the coming months.
        The outlook also highlights an increased risk of unsettled weather relative to what is usual for the time of year, but – again – there are still reasonable chances of other scenarios.
        The increased risk of more unsettled than average conditions does not mean the late autumn and early winter will necessarily be like that of last year.
        Complete fortune telling and we give this lot of Charlatans a fortune every year, my seaweed in the garage is better then their 3 day forecast.

    • Barry Woods
      November 7, 2014 at 9:59 am
      Barry Woods, sorry – but I have lived through the Met. Office’s various – and varied ‘longer term’ predictions over the last ten – say – years.
      May I suggest that these are taken wit a pinch of salt.
      Either they have been reasonably specific – ‘barbecue summer’, say, when we paddled in rice paddies – or no evidence this will be a harsh winter – so ruling out perhaps ten per cent of the likely outcomes. and being proved wrongish – depending on your definition of ‘harsh’.
      For example, we had snow lying throughout December in 2010, in London. Granted, by 31 December, it was small sheltered piles [in CR5].

    • Same here in western central France. We had a cold and wet period during the apple blossom time. Three old trees that produced more than 250 kg of fruit (=106 ltrs of juice): this year 15. That is 15 apples, not 15 kg.

    • Me Too. Late frost at just the wrong time. That’s why they call Nature a Mother. Living in east Kent, The Frms shops have got some really lovely apples in now.

  4. There is always the possibility that “future droughts and flash floods could cost lives” What’s different?
    Now famines, they could cost lives too. But this warm spell has led to bumper crops?

  5. Yeah, it was an awesome year in the UK.
    “the period from mid-December 2013 to mid-February 2014 saw at least 12 major winter storms, and, when considered overall, this was the stormiest period of weather the UK has experienced for at least 20 years.
    Strong winds and huge waves made conditions extremely dangerous around exposed coastlines – particularly in the south and west, and caused widespread transport disruption. There were major flooding problems, with the Somerset Levels continuing to be inundated with floodwaters from the New Year period. Severe flooding also occurred along sections of the River Thames.”

    • It’s weather, get used to it.
      Just like bitterly cold winters that come along every few years.
      BTW – there is no evidence at all that the wet winter had anything to do with slightly higher temperatures. We have had plenty of wet, stormy winters back in colder decades.
      The wettest of the lot was in 1929/30, much wetter than this year. Nobody blamed that on global warming.

      • Not true. The England & Wales rainfall for Winter 2013/14 was easily the wettest in the 248 winters on record, with 455.5 mm. The next wettest was 1914/15 with 423 mm.
        Admittedly you can find wetter 3-month periods, but only by including months from Autumn, which is not really a fair comparison.

    • Flash, the Levels and Thames flooding were exacerbated by catastrophic man made housing development and CO2 induced failure to follow centuries old dredging practices, respectively.

  6. Just last year we had this bit of devastating news.

    BBC – 16 September 2013
    Hot summer helps boost butterflies
    …The sustained warm weather over the summer provided “perfect” conditions for a boom in butterflies and day-flying moths according to experts….

    The elderly in the UK will tell you that it’s the cold their more worried about.

    Office of National Statistics
    An estimated 31,100 excess winter deaths occurred in England and Wales in 2012/13 – a 29% increase compared with the previous winter….
    The majority of deaths occurred among those aged 75 and over; there were 25,600 excess winter deaths in this age group in 2012/13 compared with 5,500 in people aged under 75.

    You really can’t scare a lot of people in the UK with talk of hot weather. I lived there for many years and people are generally happiest happiest weatherwise when it’s hot. When it’s cold in winter or cool and wet in summer people are generally miserable – weatherwise. That’s why their scare stories of heat in the UK will always fail to alarm but a handful of people.

  7. Correction: I meant….
    “The elderly in the UK will tell you that it’s the cold they’re more worried about.”

    • But that’s not the way the UK government spins it. All hospitals have to have a “Heatwave Plan”. None have to have a “Blizzard Plan”. The only government panic for hospitals over the winter is because of the public holidays over Christmas and New Year. Hospitals cope because it’s the same pattern of holidays each year (and coping is what hospitals do).

      • The UK politicians are toying with the idea of a death tax. So coupled with a string of cold winters, they will be able to pay off the national debt in no time.
        I have just bought a shroud with pockets, to spoil their nefarious plan in my case.

  8. As Paul points out no month has been exceptional. No heatwaves or records it’s just that most months have been warmer than normal and several months have been much warmer than normal with the exception of a cold August.
    However, far from agw we can lay the blame squarely at the weather we have had. Winds from the south at times, other times from the west. Some periods when the weather was settled for long periods and others when it changed relatively quickly.
    Can any of this be attributed to mans effect on climate?
    The current weather pales into insignificance when compared to the transition period I am presently researching, from 1190ad to 1380 or so.
    The storms and rain were truly prodigious at times and makes our current climate seem very benign

  9. Moreover the amount of land used for agriculture, worldwide, has declined since 1998. Not bad for an ever increasing population.

  10. I downloaded the data “cetml1659on.dat” from MetOffice and calculated the annual running mean. The maximum of 11,6 °C was in the period May 2006-April 2007. In the period Nov 2013-Oct 2014 the average temperature is 10,8 °C. I think the probability to top the maximum within the last 2 months is small.

    • Yes, you’re right that the highest 12-month running mean won’t be exceeded in the next 2 months. However, the highest CET for a calendar year (10.82 C in 2006) could be surpassed. It needs an average anomaly of only 0.6 deg C for the remainder of the year. Even if the rest of the year is slightly colder than average, the second warmest year of the 350-year series (2011, 10.70 deg C) is under threat.
      The anomaly to date (9th November) this year is 1.47 degrees, with every month except August more than 1 degree above average. Ironically, that is the one month when more people are on holiday, and would have noticed the weather more than at other times of the year.
      As one or two others have ponted out, the high average temperaures this year are the result of a complete absence of cold spells, rather than any extreme heat. As far as I remember, the highest temperture recorded anywhere in the UK this year wes just over 90 F (about 32.3 C), though I don’t have the details to hand. This is somewhat lower than the average “hottest day of the year”.

  11. I’m just waiting for Dr. David Viner to settle the matter and proclaim, “in 10 years, children just won’t know what cold weather is.”

    • You should read what Viner said about the Scottish ski industry 10 years ago.

      Guardian – 14 Feb 2004
      Dr. David Viner Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia
      Global warming forces sale of Scottish winter sports resorts
      “Unfortunately, it’s just getting too hot for the Scottish ski industry,” said David Viner, of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia. “It is very vulnerable to climate change; the resorts have always been marginal in terms of snow and, as the rate of climate change increases, it is hard to see a long-term future.” …

      >>>>>>> Roll forward exactly 10 years into the future……

      Daily Mail – 14 February 2014
      Scottish ski resorts have had more snow than Sochi – and skiers are warned over AVALANCHE risk
      The Ski Club of Great Britain has reported depths of 285cm at Glencoe Mountain, 250cm at Cairngorm Mountain and 200cm at Nevis Range.
      This comes after they reported a depth of only 128cm at Whistler in Canada, the host of the 2010 Winter Olympics, a few days ago.
      The huge snowfalls have led to safety warnings being imposed by mountain rescue.

  12. I was in London at the end of Jul, early Aug. It just touched 90F the first day. Some organization(s) was handing out free bottles of water in the underground entrances, warning people to be cautious of the heat. In DC, it if hits upper 90’s, there would be a warning on the weather news, but definitely no free bottles of water.
    Oh yeah, it was sunny too. I wonder why they were not warning the English people to watch for sun burn? along with free sun screen?

    • Your point is well taken. I would add temperature is relative to how we adapt to temperature. You talk to anyone in Florida about 90F being dangerous and oppressive and they would laugh like you had lost your marbles. In New England where there is a wide band of temperatures over the year, 65F in the height of summer feels cold, 65F in the depths of Winter feels hot. It is all to say humans can and do quickly adapt to temperature. What feels cold or hot is only relative to what we have adpated to.
      As far as sun screen, maybe the English always carry their umbrellas with them which are good for sun or rain. Very practical those English.

      • In the tropics it is not unusual to find local fishermen wearing balaclavas, gloves, and insulated jackets in winter. winter temps being 90F+.

      • Spouse is still getting used to Florida. “Winter” is here, and last night while shopping at WallyWorld she noticed that both bathing suits and jackets were on sale… Bathing suits for the tourists, jackets for the locals… after all, it had gotten down to a high of 70 F (GASP!) and the locals were wearking coats and hats…. Snow Birds (especially those from Canada) were in shorts and headed for the pool…. It’s just hard not to laugh out loud 😉
        Oh, and last Summer she was teaching a class of English as a Second Language to Brazilian exchange students. They would shivver in class and try to nudge the thermometer up to 80 ish F while the spouse, newly arrived from ‘cold’ California would keep it at 72 F (the “normal” for N. America in summer). The Brazilians were constantly complaining about the cold anytime the temps were below 80+ F to 90 F something.
        Threatening ANYONE with temps rising to 90 F / 32 C is just stupid. It is threatening them with a free lifetime of vacation wonderland temperatures… Heck, I’m most happy betweek 30 C and 40 C…. At 50 C it starts to be a bit much… so when that hot in Arizona, we’d hit the pool… ( 122 F. We were vacationing there when it hit 125 F once and the airport was shut down due to the tarmac melting in the sun… talk about UHI on black asphalt…)

      • E.M.Smith, I have a similar story about my trip to Atlanta in 1997. The large public thermometers were showing 119.9 degrees, which I took to mean a higher temp that was undisplayable. It was too hot to have the top down on our rental convertible. My friend’s shoes melted right off his feet walking across a parking lot.
        I loved it. I swear I was born too far north, to me a good 120 degree day is a great day. My larger friends were not impressed and spent most of their days huddled around A/C units. I’ll never forget that first moment walking out of the air conditioned Atlanta airport, where the outside air was a tangible thing, that you could actually touch and interact with before stepping into it.

      • It only got to 69 F in Daytona Beach, Florida today and the wind was blowing some. It was darn cold for all us local types. I much, much prefer it in the lower 90s. (fahrenheit)
        I never believed in the “CO2 will cause warming” scare — but I wanted to believe. I really did. I would love to see the planet warm 2 to 5 degrees F. I would love to see CO2 at 1200 ppm. But it ain’t going to happen.

    • I maybe mistaken but I last recall that the London underground carriages are not yet air conditioned. Maybe some are not. That may explain the bottles of water. When I used the London Undergound over a decade ago trains would sometimes stop for several minutes between stations. The temperature would start to rise dangerously – such temps would be illegal for transporting animals other than humans. No joke. 🙂
      A/C carriages are in the pipeline.

    • July was lovely but August was grim. Over the holiday weekend it was so hot I had to turn the central heating on 😉
      There were of course LOTS of TV talking heads adverts warning about using sun screen.

  13. The UK is on course to experience the warmest and one of the wettest years since records began more than a century ago…Unless November and December are extremely cold, 2014 will enter the record books as the hottest ever.

    Warmest in 100 years is equivalent to hottest ever?
    According the block head who wrote this, the whole entire and complete history of climate just started 100 years ago. To sound even more rediculous the writer is stating a mild, rainy summer is simply awful, a terrible thing, since it predicts paralyzing heat and extreme flooding in the future. Maybe this person should be given crayons to write with to better fit the maturity of the article.

  14. Don’t use the word “warm”. Use the term “less cold”, because UK will still be freaking cold in winter despite CO2 levels and emissions. Very damp and very cold winds. Frosts will (have) occurred and will knacker plants now and often in blossom time.
    Saving on energy use simply leaves you cold, damp and miserable…drying clothes is still a problem in this so called modern age.
    Nothing within the climate is settled at all…thankfully!

  15. When did regional weather become an indicator of global warming? And when has balmy weather ever been unwelcome in Great Britain? Has rye madness returned to the green fields of mother England?

  16. Well, if the UK starts getting warm summers like it did 1,000 years ago, it might be able to revive its old wine industry.

    • My Mum went home to England one summer in about 1961… First week of July I think it was… (she was there for a few weeks 😉 Said it rained almost ever day, but one day was sunny and dry…. well, less wet… still damp…
      She enjoyed her trip greatly, but was suddently thankful for California sun…

  17. Good news for UK consumers? Some of you need a lesson on the Common Agricultural policy. If there is a glut of produce, the EU will step in and start buying until the price is forced up to the minimum. A “grain mountain” may result, which will be disposed of somehow, outside the EU.

    • Vince you are absolutely right about how it used to be done: Weapons-grade stupidity.
      Not that the European administration is any less stupid now; why did they pay out all that agricultural support when grain prices recently went through the roof ! ????

  18. In the US farm belt we had a very mild summer. warm days, cool evenings just enough rain and bumper crops or corn and soy beans. How did “climate change” cause that? Should I be scared??!

  19. This is an interesting page about climate in north America and the mind-set of the new colonialists. It has parallels with today’s expectations of ‘steady climate’ with no change. Assumptions that killed.

    The Puzzle of the American Climate in the Early Colonial Period
    …..For the colonists themselves, it was the story of a mental adjustment that was both slow and costly in money as well as lives……

  20. My online news says a monster storm up in Alaska, is about to bring some record cold to the mainland.
    Satellite pictures look kinda hurricane like.

  21. Better hope next year is as bountiful. 2016+ looks to be nasty, even if the L(y)I(ng)B(astard)Dems/CONservatives make up a government that less than 50% of the people vote for. Or LIEbor. Jeesh are we spoiled for choice when it comes to politicians over here?

  22. But are they comparing raw data adjusted downwards with raw data that has been adjusted upwards?
    Has anyone got a record of raw unadjusted data against raw unadjusted data in countryside locations where there is no local urban heat pollution.

    • I live in a small country town in the North of England and have recorded local temperature for over 40 years. My own unadjusted figures do show a record warm year so far, but my highest maximum has only been 26.1c in July. What has been a feature of this warm wet year for us has been a lack of very cold frosty days earlier in the year, not extreme summer heat,
      I am sure other local amateur weather recordings sites will confirm that.
      Keith Gordon

  23. Weather ≠ Climate.
    The predicted trend has not occurred. The models were wrong. So what we have gotten must be spun as a sign of the coming apocalypse.
    But if every little thing is named a wolf the villagers won’t listen to the sheepWARDen forever.

  24. I like this bit;
    “Unless November and December are extremely cold, 2014 will enter the record books as the hottest ever.”
    Is comment really necessary? ……Just extrapolate my sarc…….

  25. It looks like it will be record year for grain (corn, wheat, soya, etc.) production around the world. Joe Bastardi used the term “garden of Eden summer” to describe this year’s growing season in much of the U.S. The one exception is California!

  26. I wouldn’t read too much into a bumper cereal crop. The yield will be good if one gets the right amount of rain at exactly the right time, whereas the exact same amount of rain, but at a different point in the growing cycle will result in far lower yields. Ditto the right temperatures. To get bumper crops you need the correct coincidence of rain, warmth and timing. Looking at aggregates of these won’t be very good predictors of yields.

  27. I know whose relatives lives and grows corn in Mexico…she said because of the rains there this yr..they had a bumper crop this yr. She said the plants were as tall as the ceiling of the place we were in..

  28. When I’m not fixing computers, or worrying about warmist propaganda, I’m brewing beer, or baking. Every day on my way to work I cycle past fields of wheat and barley. Looks like a bumper malting barley crop here in Scotland. Lovely dry weather at harvest time too, which means lots less energy wasted drying grain. (Green warmist irony). Nothing gives me greater pleasure than to see the grain crops being cut in the late summer, stoor (look it up) rising as the combine harvesters work round the clock. A real human achievement, in contrast to the acres of warmist bullsxxt.

  29. Family wins $32M lottery, now irrationally terrified about their future.
    That’s about the same headline, right? The only people I know of that can turn both mundane and good news into an angst filled bout of terror are climate change alarmists.

  30. The UK is on course to experience the warmest and one of the wettest years since records began more than a century ago – sparking fears that future droughts and flash floods could cost lives.

    To me that just reads as a non sequitur.
    Sigh… I just need to get with the program.

  31. In the United States, record smashing corn and soybean yields……..by a wide margin. From the USDA:
    “Based on conditions as
    of October 1, yields are expected to average 174.2 bushels per acre, up
    2.5 bushels from the September forecast and 15.4 bushels above the 2013
    average. If realized, this will be the highest yield and production on record
    for the United States. ”
    “Soybean production is forecast at a record 3.93 billion bushels, up slightly
    from September and up 17 percent from last year. Based on October 1
    conditions, yields are expected to average a record high 47.1 bushels per
    acre, up 0.5 bushel from last month and up 3.1 bushels from last year.”
    We constantly here about the negative consequences of extreme weather that humans are causing and how it will continue to get worse based on model projections. The projections start with assumptions that don’t accurately represent the world our crops are growing in.
    Anybody that is unable to dial in the tremendous benefits of increasing CO2 to plants, crops/food production, the vegetative health and booming biosphere of our planet in their projections will be wrong.
    The response to this is often “well warming so far may not have hurt our crops much but model projections are that it will in the future”
    In 1994, projecting 20 years into the future was……….today.
    The imminent disasters that can only be avoided if we take aggressive and immediate actions to severely cut CO2 emissions have not been happening for 20 years. In fact, the authentic science shows conclusively, based on observations that increasing CO2 is providing tremendous benefits to our world.

  32. I’d thought “snow and ice” meant global warming. Now we’re back to “warmer” means global warming? It’s just so confusing! Why don’t we quit horsing around and just agree that “whatever happens” means global warming? Then we could logically conclude that “whatever happens” is impossible to either predict or prevent and go back to devoting our time and resources to something productive.

  33. “Experts say the increase is the result of climate change and warn that it could place a burden on the NHS as Britons struggling to cope with predicted heatwaves end up in hospital.”
    So one year is now a trend? I guess we can all ignore the fact that temps are where they were in the early 90s and we’ve seen less than a degree celcius since the mid 1600s when CET records began. And a 400 year temp record which is mostly pretty cold when compared against an extended warm period where the wine industry in the north of the country boomed just doesn’t cut it.
    As for the NHS struggling to cope with heatwaves, i’m sure i’m not the only one that would love to see the records for emergency hospital admissions in the summer to back up that crap claim.

  34. “Bob Ward, policy director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change at the London School of Economics and Political Science, said the elderly and those with health problems are particularly at risk and could end up dying in the heat.”
    Where does one start with Bob Ward’s highly misleading comment?
    In Europe, many more people die of winter cold than summer heat – that is why there is a “Coefficient of Seasonal Variation in Mortality”, a nicer term for the “Excess WINTER Mortality Rate”. This is the greater percentage of people who die in the four winter months (December thru March) than in the warmer eight months of the year. These rates range from a low of about 10% in Scandinavian countries that adapt well to the cold, to about 20% in the UK, and up to about to 30% in Portugal. In England and Wales that is about 25,000 excess WINTER deaths per year. All across Europe these excess WINTER deaths of real people in an AVERAGE winter probably equals about one-quarter of a million souls.
    The forecast for this winter is for brutal cold across Russia, with somewhat lesser cold reaching across western Europe and to the UK. Given Europe’s very high energy costs and possible energy shortages, I suggest that few rational people will be worried about global warming after this winter is over.
    Bundle up good people – stay safe and warm.
    Best to all, Allan
    Excess Winter Mortality in Europe: a Cross Country Analysis Identifying Key Risk Factors
    Table 1 – Coefficient of seasonal variation in mortality (CSVM) in EU-14 (mean, 1988–97)
    CSVM 95% CI
    Austria 0.14 (0.12 to 0.16)
    Belgium 0.13 (0.09 to 0.17)
    Denmark 0.12 (0.10 to 0.14)
    Finland 0.10 (0.07 to 0.13)
    France 0.13 (0.11 to 0.15)
    Germany 0.11 (0.09 to 0.13)
    Greece 0.18 (0.15 to 0.21)
    Ireland 0.21 (0.18 to 0.24)
    Italy 0.16 (0.14 to 0.18)
    Luxembourg 0.12 (0.08 to 0.16)
    Netherlands 0.11 (0.09 to 0.13)
    Portugal 0.28 (0.25 to 0.31)
    Spain 0.21 (0.19 to 0.23)
    UK 0.18 (0.16 to 0.20)
    Mean 0.16 (0.14 to 0.18)

  35. Two months to go yet and anything can happen. It might be the warmest year but there hasn’t been any exceptional high temperatures. It’s only the warmest because we have not had any cold weather which you would expect with lots of cloud cover. There was a record set 31 of October at a fairly new weather station but the heat was coming up from Africa.

  36. As others have commented, it’s been a mostly pleasant summer with one or two cool periods. I actually needed to put on the heating a couple of times in June or July. August was actually the coolest for a few years.
    But overall it’s been very nice, and the harvests have been excellent.
    So, according to these morons, it seems we’re doomed by nice weather….

  37. Like Bob Ward, I live in Britain. Unlike Bob Ward I look at the actual evidence. 2014 was unusually wet because the jet stream moved south. It also meant that the winter was significantly warmer than usual. There were about 3 nights of frost in Manchester last year and no snow. The summer was pleasantly warm until mid August, but with lower rainfall than in the last few years. Late August there was a cold period. September was warmer, (especially for Anthony’s visit) and October still quite pleasant. There were no extreme heatwaves – in British terms that is maximums above 28 degrees.
    In Britain the people are most vulnerable in the extreme cold. That is when daytime temperatures fail to get above zero. My elderly mother is scared of going outdoors when it is icy in case she falls. If there is snow, or a hard frost the hospital A&E depts are quickly overloaded with (mostly elderly) folks with broken bones.
    To a much lesser extent the vulnerable suffer in the extreme heat. But not this year.
    All-in-all, the weather has been quite good this year, with an unusually long period with daytime max > 18, night time min > 12. Below this members of my family switch on the heating, and I switch it off.

  38. We can get a very mild winter if the Siberian high reaches Western Europe but not Britain, when Europe can be cold. We can get a very mild winter whilst Western Europe gets the same, if the Siberian high doesn’t breach the old Iron Curtain line.
    We can get a very wet winter if the eastern USA has a very cold one, as the moist air originating the Gulf of Mexico tracks up the Eastern Seaboard and across to Britain rather than going due north into the mid-West. Over a winter, the colder it is on the continental USA, the more likely it is that more depressions come from GoM to Britain. 2014 was just such a winter. If US predictions of another cold one are right, we might get another wet winter in 2015. We’re certainly having a wet autumn, with both October and November looking like replenishing water tables splendidly.

  39. Just a taste of things to come if climate change were to evolve into another “Medieval Warm Period”!

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