Meh, same old 'gloom and doom' from the IPCC over new climate report

SRAR5[1]Here is a few newsbytes about the IPCC draft synthesis report. From all indications, it’s going to be a real yawner, rehashing all the alarmism we’ve heard again and again for years. Of course, that bastion of balanced leftist reporting, The Guardian, managed to get an advance copy, and of course, from their perspective we are all going to roast. 

MSM CAGW orgy to follow:

1 Nov: UK Telegraph: Emily Gosden: UN climate change report to warn of ‘severe, pervasive’ effects of global warming, flooding, dangerous heatwaves, ill health and violent conflicts among likely risks if the world keeps burning fossil fuels at current rates, IPCC expected to say

The world is on course to experience “severe and pervasive” negative impacts from climate change unless it takes rapid action to slash its greenhouse gas emissions, a major UN report is expected to warn on Sunday.

Flooding, dangerous heatwaves, ill health and violent conflicts are among the likely risks if temperatures exceed 2C above pre-industrial levels, the report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will say.

Yet on current trends, continued burning of fossil fuels could see temperature increases of between 3.7C and 4.8C by the end of the century, the report warns, according to a draft seen by the Telegraph…

The final document, which has been agreed line-by-line by international government officials at a summit in Copenhagen over the past week, is intended to provide the clearest and most concise summary yet of the widely-agreed scientific evidence on climate change…

***Richard Black, director of the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit, said the key question for those finalising the IPCC report was “what to say about the elephant in the room… that if the computer model projections are right, keeping global warming below 2C basically means ending fossil fuel use well before today’s children start drawing their pensions”…

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/11202987/UN-climate-change-report-to-warn-of-severe-pervasive-effects-of-global-warming.html


 

Lean says it’s worse than the IPCC report suggests!

31 Oct: UK Telegraph: Geoffrey Lean: Danger: irreversible climate-change forces at work

The new report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says that irreversible consequences could be averted, at surprisingly little cost, if action is taken without delay

Campaigners against global warming and their bitterest opponents are united by one word this weekend: irreversible.

It appears 48 times in the draft of the most important report so far on climate change, being finalised today in Copenhagen, signifying that unless the world takes speedy action to curb emissions of greenhouse gases their dire effect will last for thousands of years, at least…

Yet – even before publication, it is badly out of date – because it results from a cumbersome six-year process, which cannot take recent scientific findings into account. One of the most worrying studies to date, suggesting that the Western Antarctic ice sheet may have begun irreversible collapse – eventually raising sea levels worldwide by some 10 feet – was only published last May, far too late to be considered…

The panel urgently needs to get up to speed, issuing regular, perhaps annual, updates on the science…

Facekinis and fashion masks for China’s ‘airpocalypse’

Stand by for the latest in haute couture – the pollution mask. Designer Yin Peng has just paraded them as part of his spring/summer 2015 collection during China Fashion Week in Beijing.

It’s dressing for the “airpocalypse”, as the Chinese call the ever-more-frequent days when tiny particulates exceed maximum World Health Organisation standards by some twentyfold…

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/11201482/Danger-irreversible-climate-change-forces-at-work.html


 

31 Oct: Guardian: Adam Vaughan: IPCC report: six graphs that show how we’re changing the world’s climate

A draft of the synthesis report, seen by the Guardian, shows it will repeat the message that there’s no doubt over our role in global warming: “Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest in history,” it says.

It doesn’t mince words on the repercussions: “The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and sea level has risen.”…

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/31/ipcc-report-six-graphs-that-show-how-were-changing-the-worlds-climate


 

31 Oct: Bloomberg: Eric Roston: Enough With the Fat Climate Change Reports Already

The United Nations in 1988 entrusted the future of civilization to a loosely confederated, all-volunteer band of Earth scientists and economists. This coterie has a long, bureaucratic name with no memorable abbreviation. It was charged with taking the temperature, so to speak, of the whole planet and advising governments on how big a problem they had their hands. Turns out, a big problem.

Early next week the group drops the last of four massive tomes that together make up its fifth report in a quarter century. In essence, next week’s edition is a synthesis of the thousands of pages of synthesis that started coming out last fall.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s scientific reviews land every six years or so, like the anvil that falls on Wile E. Coyote’s head from time to time…

The question is, do we really need these massive reports, with little new transformative information, that very few people read?…

Here are three ways modern technology could help the IPCC get you to pay attention.

  • Turn on, Log in, Drop by…
  • Front of Mind and Urgent. Every Six Years…
  • Hire Web Developers…

There’s now a cottage industry of websites that explain the main aspects of climate change, from governments (NASA or NOAA), nonprofits (Climate Central) and individuals (Skeptical Science). Researchers at Yale, Columbia, George Mason and elsewhere have learned a lot about effective and ineffective ways to inform people that the world is heating up. It’s easier than ever to find scientific speech translated into human speech.

And that’s great, because as it turns out, the way scientists conduct their research has very little to do with the way people form opinions about it.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-30/enough-with-the-fat-climate-change-reports-already.html

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November 2, 2014 6:32 am

I take it now that the science is “settled” and it’s now “up the politicians”, the IPCC will be disbanded and no further climate research funding is required.

Robert of Ottawa
November 2, 2014 6:36 am

I could have bought a copy of the Bible for warnings of plagues, pestilence, disaster, famine and war.
Repent ye of thy sins, sayeth the IPCC.

mebbe
Reply to  Robert of Ottawa
November 2, 2014 7:43 am

Robert,
I’m pretty sure you wouldn’t need to buy one.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Robert of Ottawa
November 2, 2014 9:51 am

I could have bought a copy of the Bible for warnings of plagues, pestilence, disaster, famine and war.

And just about as accurate.

Tom in Florida
November 2, 2014 6:37 am

” that if the computer model projections are right, keeping global warming below 2C basically means ending fossil fuel use well before today’s children start drawing their pensions”…
————————————————————————————————————————
Two points:
1. the elephant in the room is the word “if” .
2. The IPCC should set the example and lead the way in ending their use of fossil fuels by shutting down and disbanding.

Mike Bromley the Kurd
November 2, 2014 6:39 am

“ill health and violent conflicts” Oh, I wonder what buzzword IH&VC they refer to there? eBola (lower case intended) and IS(insert second half of acronym here)?
Watching John Kerry’s convoluted tying-together of climate change and poor, suffering, disenfranchised little islamic boys is painful and irritating, yet there he is muddling along.
They are completely in LaLa Land.

Bill Marsh
Editor
November 2, 2014 6:42 am

***Richard Black, director of the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit, said the key question for those finalising the IPCC report was “what to say about the elephant in the room… that if the computer model projections are right, keeping global warming below 2C basically means ending fossil fuel use well before today’s children start drawing their pensions”…
But, the model projections are NOT correct, are they?

Jimbo
Reply to  Bill Marsh
November 2, 2014 10:12 am

I think Richard Black has been smoking funny tobacco. He really is living in Fairy Wonder Land.
What if the projections are WRONG? THAT is the elephant in the room and he is now and 18 year old charging bull elephant who refuses to fly! Black wants us to bet trillions on what has so far failed!

Mervyn
November 2, 2014 6:42 am

The dangerous man-made global warming alarmists will never give up their “mission to save us from a tipping point” until they have succeeded in getting a global treaty on fossil fuel energy-use, and international control over CO2 emissions.
It is incredible to think that we are only talking about just 3% of the CO2 that enters the atmosphere each year from human activity on the planet (Source: IPCC AR4, 2007). 97% of the CO2 entering the atmosphere is from natural sources such as the oceans, volcanic activity, bacteria, etc.
In the words of former Polish physicist, Dr Zbigniew Jaworowski (October 17, 1927 – November 12, 2011), “This man-made 3% of CO2 emissions is responsible for a tiny fraction of the total greenhouse effect, probably close to 0.12%. Propositions of changing, or rather destroying, the global energy system because of this tiny human contribution, in face of the large short-term and long-term natural fluctuations of atmospheric CO2, are utterly irresponsible.”

Richard111
November 2, 2014 6:45 am

When the industrial revolution started world population was around 1 billion. Today, world population is well above 7 billion. About half that population live in just three countries; China, India and Africa. Those three countries are excused from CO2 reduction efforts. Somewhere in the region of about half that population of those three countries have never had access to electricity. They want it NOW! Just how will they get it without increasing global CO2 levels way beyond the present?

tonyb
Editor
Reply to  Richard111
November 2, 2014 7:00 am

Richard111
Africa is a continent not a State, containing well over 50 countries.
The UK has a large Aid programme aimed at providing electricity to millions of poor people in many African states. Sometimes this will be by provision of solar, which may be a sensible option in some countries.
However fossil fuel provides a great deal of portable energy for the mass it occupies and will remain the only option for millions more. India for example is currently opening up vast coal fields in order to bring electricity to some 400 million people..
tonyb

Bill Marsh
Editor
November 2, 2014 6:46 am

I expected the line from “Ghostbusters” —- “Cats & Dogs sleeping together” to be thrown amongst the prognostications of doom and gloom.
What they are really saying is ” let all those kids in Africa and India continue on in abject poverty like they do today, they need to take one for the planet.”

Robert of Ottawa
Reply to  Bill Marsh
November 2, 2014 6:58 am

We should all be so poor, they say. Except for the Tranzies of course.

Robert of Ottawa
November 2, 2014 6:57 am

Isn’t there another International AGW expense account party coming up in Paris this month?

Michael Spurrier
November 2, 2014 6:59 am

Gosh the Guardian really do delete anything that is not pro AGW – I just asked a question about the pause in warming – asking could someone please explain it – very polite, no controversial tone and it lasted 5 minutes before it was disappeared……

tom s
Reply to  Michael Spurrier
November 2, 2014 8:05 am

The guardian and their ilk can go blank themselves.

herkimer
November 2, 2014 7:08 am

IPCC may fuel the global warming debate all it wants , but the observable trend is for colder winters globally which will lead to colder spring and fall seasons and ultimately colder summers as we have just seen during 2014.
There is no doubt that winters have been getting colder in most parts of the world. According to NOAA, CLIMATE AT A GLANCE data, the trend of GLOBAL LAND and OCEAN WINTER TEMPERATURE ANOAMLIES has been declining since 1998 at 0.6 C /decade. So has the WINTER TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES for the NORTHERN HEMISPHER declined at o.11C /decade since 1998.
The trend of WINTER TEMPERATURE ANOAMLIES for CONTIGUOUS US declined at 1.79 F/decade since 1998 . In United States,10 months of the year have a trend of declining temperatures and only 2 months temperatures are rising [March, June}
Annual Contiguous US temperatures have been declining at (-0.36 F/DECADE) since 1998. This is happening in 7 of the 9 climate regions in United States. Only the Northeast and the West both of which receive the moderating effect of the oceans, had slight warming trend of 0.2 and 0.3 F/decade respectively. Theses 16 year annual temperature declines illustrate that despite any summer warming , the cooling during winter , spring and fall offsets any summer warming resulting in the annual temperature declines
The WINTER TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES for CANADA declined from an average of + 2.6 C during 1998-2000 to -0.4C by 2014 winter , or a cooling of 3 degrees. A winter cooling trend is also apparent in EUROPE, and NORTHERN ASIA. I see this pattern continuing until 2035/2045 as the oceans enter their cool phase as they did 1880-1910 and again 1945-1975.
This winter will bring more of what we just had in 2014

tom s
Reply to  herkimer
November 2, 2014 8:05 am

Apparently you did not read the Telegraph. Cold winters are a sign of global warming. Sheesh! Get with it!
😉

Gamecock
Reply to  tom s
November 2, 2014 8:26 am

Yep. Snow in South Carolina on November 1. I need to buy a heavier coat if the global warming continues.
http://media.thestate.com/smedia/2014/11/01/09/29/IAFLw.AuSt.74.jpeg

Jimbo
Reply to  herkimer
November 2, 2014 12:05 pm

It is still going to be declared the hottest year on the record.

schitzree
Reply to  Jimbo
November 2, 2014 8:58 pm

God, I hope so. Nothing will do more damage to their rep here in Indiana then having them publicly crying that the last year has been the hottest ever. All this cold is already sending more and more people looking online for answers as to where all the warming is, and when they find out it’s all hiding at the bottom of the ocean, or can only been found by ‘reanalyzing’ their guesses for how much warming is happening in the deep arctic where we couldn’t measure it in the first place, most of the people realize that it never was real problem.

Curious George
Reply to  herkimer
November 2, 2014 12:19 pm

A debate is the last thing the IPCC wants. Science is settled, shut up – and pony up!

Alba
November 2, 2014 7:08 am

The BBC article on the IPCC report includes a link to a very ‘helpful’ article called “Q&A: Climate change”. The photo at the top of this page inevitably shows a polar bear. It also tells us why we are still seeing snow despite that ‘scientist’ chap telling us that snow was a thing of the past:
“In some places, mass may actually increase as warming temperatures drive the production of more snows.”
But we shouldn’t take temperature data too seriously as that gives the wrong impression. We should be looking elsewhere:
“On the other hand, climate scientists point out that the hiatus occurs in just one component of the climate system – the global mean surface temperature – and that other indicators, such as melting ice and changes to plant and animal life, demonstrate that the Earth has continued to warm.”
Methinks that some folk at the IPCC and the BBC have been watching too many videos of ‘Das Boot’ (see 1.41):

mwhite
November 2, 2014 7:10 am

Well, at least the hole they’re digging is really deep. When it comes to getting out of it they’ll need an elevator.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-29855884
“Fossil fuels should be ‘phased out by 2100’ says IPCC”
But do expect to hear that the Little Ice Age/Global Cooling is being caused by global warming.

Tim
November 2, 2014 7:13 am

“Richard Black, director of the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit, said the key question for those finalising the IPCC report was “what to say about the elephant in the room… that if the computer model projections are right, keeping global warming below 2C basically means ending fossil fuel use well before today’s children start drawing their pensions”…
“…if the computer model projections are right…”
And world governments are going to base their energy policies and the life or death of their citizens on an “if”, from demonstably failed computer models, eh Richard?
‘Intelligence’ unit?

Chris Riley
November 2, 2014 7:29 am

What we need is a government program that funds the production and distribution of an amount of Thorazine(tm) sufficient to contain the epidemic of schizophrenia that the CAGW movement has become. We are dealing with a suicide cult here.

tom s
November 2, 2014 7:29 am

These people make me sick. Politicized weather and climate….ARGHH!! Weather and climate extreme’s that have always occurred, with a very large envelope of variability can now be blamed on our energy use. But the only saving grace is the majoriy of the public does not buy it and hopefully with a Republican sweep this week we can stem the Obama adminstrations idiotic climate control aspirations.

herkimer
November 2, 2014 7:39 am

IT seems to me that the annual and seasonal temperatures in UNITED STATES are dropping not rising .despite the extensive use of fossil fuels. I wonder why IPCC neglected to mention this fact.
The following are monthly temperature anomaly trends per decade for Contiguous US or 48 states as calculated by the NCDC/NOAA Climate at a Glance web page for the last 16 years [1998-2014]. The figure reflect the linear trend in Fahrenheit degrees per decade per NCDC/NOAA web page data using base period of 1998-2013
WINTER (-1.79 F/DECADE) – DECLINING
DEC -1.22 F/decade (declining)
JAN -1.52 F decade (declining)
FEB -2.77 F/decade (declining)
SPRING (-0.06 F/DECADE)- DECLINING
MAR +0.57 F/ decade (rising) but dropped 10 degrees F since 2012 alone
APR -0.28 F /decade (declining)
MAY -0.47 F/decade (declining)
SUMMER (+0.23 F/ DECADE)-RISING( flat)
JUN +1.02 F/decade (rising)
JUL -.08 F /decade (declining) flat
AUG -0.24 F/decade (declining)
FALL( -0.44 F/DECADE)-DECLINING
SEPT –o.24 F/decade (declining)
OCT -0.61 F/decade (declining)
NOV -0.76 F/decade (declining)
Summary
10 months temperatures are declining and only 2 months temperatures are rising [March, June]
TREND OF ANNUAL TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IS DECLINING AT ( -0.36 F/DECADE) SINCE 1998

Reply to  herkimer
November 2, 2014 9:45 am

Interesting stats: what are they for the globe? If strong 2 month rises create, mathematically, a 12 month rise, one could easily question the global impact in a time-sense.
Regionalism, IMHO, is a problem that is only a “global” situation through computational means. But regionalism, I see now, has a time component: perhaps all areas of the planet are only warming during specific months, even if they are not the same months, which suggests that CLOUD COVER reduction has been/is the true global issue.
Very, very interesting.

Billy Liar
Reply to  herkimer
November 2, 2014 10:03 am

We also know that temperatures before 1998 have also been declining due to man:
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/tracking-us-temperature-fraud/

Sean
November 2, 2014 7:47 am

Look at this climate nonsense from the lying Canadian public broadcaster CBC. It’s like they are ramping up the hysteria in preparation for the end times. Their mendacious claims have reached an all time high.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/un-climate-change-report-offers-stark-warnings-hope-1.2821093

Dave in Canmore
Reply to  Sean
November 2, 2014 9:45 am

More insulting is that the CBC is paid for by taxpayers. They take their budget from me without my consent and leave me zero recourse to demand that I recieve any value for it. Disgraceful. For all the prattle about “social justice” on this network, the elephant in the room is that they steal from me to produce fairy tales passed off as news.
Helpless outrage is apparently the only action available to me.

Bruce Cobb
November 2, 2014 7:59 am

From page 5 of the SYR:

Topic 1: Observed Changes and their Causes
Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest in history. Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural systems.

Big Lie sandwich, throwing a Warm Herring in the middle about greenhouse gases. Nice.

November 2, 2014 8:03 am

Well, I am very encouraged by the fact that only ONE of these stories (Gosden’s Telegraph offering) was accompanied by a photo of a polar bear.
I think this indicates polar bears are well on their way to loosing AGW icon status because of their striking failure to die off in droves as predicted.
If you haven’t seen it yet, this recent post is worth a read: http://polarbearscience.com/2014/10/29/w-hudson-bay-polar-bear-population-no-longer-declining-where-are-the-headlines/
Susan Crockford, PolarBearScience

Rud Istvan
Reply to  polarbearscience
November 2, 2014 9:01 am

Susan, you are cited prominently in my essay on polar bears in my new ebook on energy and climate. Your blog is even hyperlinked. The essay was mostly about whether polar bears are a true species, their ability to alter foraging habits to be more like their brown cousins when necessary, and their stubborn insistance on not dieing off to suit Greenpeace CAGW marketing. Highest regards to the truly scientific anti-Sterling.

Reply to  polarbearscience
November 2, 2014 9:54 am

I take back my statement above – I followed the link Sean provided above to the CBC story (just above my comment) and noticed that while they do not lead with a polar bear photo, one is included in their montage of 15 images (that starts with a wild fire photo, half way down the page).
So that makes two, not just one.
The CBC photo caption says:
“Polar bears in Canada’s North continue to be threatened as climate change shrinks their icy territory.”
EXCEPT, the polar bear in Canada is NOT considered “threatened” by climate change – it is a “species of concern” according to our Species at Risk Act (SARA), a big step below “threatened.”
Has the CBC confused our country with the US again?

lee
Reply to  polarbearscience
November 3, 2014 1:40 am

But be happy … it is no longer the “canary in the coal mine” of AGW.

herkimer
November 2, 2014 8:05 am

Just to illustrate how IPCC exaggerates the non existing threat. They now claim that the global temperatures will rise by 3.75-4.8 C by 2100 if we do nothing. The current trend SINCE 1998 of the GLOBAL LAND AND OCEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALY per NCDC/NOAA CLIMATE AT A GLANCE WEB DATA is rising at 0.04 C/ decade. With this trend we can expect to be at about 0.36C higher by 2100. As we can see there is an exaggeration factor of 10 times of what may really happen.

Gamecock
Reply to  herkimer
November 2, 2014 3:57 pm

We? By 2100, I expect to be seriously dead.

Jimbo
November 2, 2014 8:06 am

Here is the 1 November 2014 SYNTHESIS REPORT – IPCC Summary For Policy Makers
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_SPM.pdf
They say:

Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850. The period from 1983 to 2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years in the Northern Hemisphere, where such assessment is possible (medium confidence).

I decided to take a look at what others have found regarding the MWP and the Northern Hemisphere. I found a paper from Dr. Michael Mann. He says the following:

Medieval Climatic Optimum
Michael E Mann – University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA
It is evident that Europe experienced, on the whole, relatively mild climate conditions during the earliest centuries of the second millennium (i.e., the early Medieval period). Agriculture was possible at higher latitudes (and higher elevations in the mountains) than is currently possible in many regions, and there are numerous anecdotal reports of especially bountiful harvests (e.g., documented yields of grain) throughout Europe during this interval of time. Grapes were grown in England several hundred kilometers north of their current limits of growth, and subtropical flora such as fig trees and olive trees grew in regions of Europe (northern Italy and parts of Germany) well north of their current range. Geological evidence indicates that mountain glaciers throughout Europe retreated substantially at this time, relative to the glacial advances of later centuries (Grove and Switsur, 1994). A host of historical documentary proxy information such as records of frost dates, freezing of water bodies, duration of snowcover, and phenological evidence (e.g., the dates of flowering of plants) indicates that severe winters were less frequent and less extreme at times during the period from about 900 – 1300 AD in central Europe……………………
Some of the most dramatic evidence for Medieval warmth has been argued to come from Iceland and Greenland (see Ogilvie, 1991). In Greenland, the Norse settlers, arriving around AD 1000, maintained a settlement, raising dairy cattle and sheep. Greenland existed, in effect, as a thriving European colony for several centuries. While a deteriorating climate and the onset of the Little Ice Age are broadly blamed for the demise of these settlements around AD 1400,
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/medclimopt.pdf

Ken Paulson
Reply to  Jimbo
November 2, 2014 9:27 am

Dr. Michael E. Mann is a climatologist at Pennsylvania State University, who attempted to show that the MWP and the Little Ice Age never existed. Is there actually another person of the same name at the University of Virginia? Or has Professor Mann moved from PSU to UofV? Or, …?

Jimbo
Reply to  Ken Paulson
November 2, 2014 10:05 am

It’s that very same Mann of Hockey Schtick fame.

Bill Illis
November 2, 2014 8:11 am

The solution?
Give up cars, tractors, transport trucks, airplanes, lawn-mowers, winter home heating, 80% of electricity, cement, pavement, manufacturing, grocery stores, ultimately your job. No cost at all.
Just so they can keep up their myth-making personal passion to protect the environment and keep their climate scientist jobs.

Scottish Sceptic
November 2, 2014 8:27 am

They crossed the line at which shouting “wolf” louder and longer just made them look more silly a long time ago.

Letelemarker
November 2, 2014 8:43 am

I love the fact that Leonardo DiCaprio has a seat on richard bransons spaceship…perhaps he could flick through the ipcc’s report while he is waiting to take off.

Otter (ClimateOtter on Twitter)
Reply to  Letelemarker
November 2, 2014 12:23 pm

It would just be page after page, each containing one word: DOOM.