Study: Iceland's Bárðarbunga volcano sits on a massive magma hot spot

By Kat Kerlin, UC Davis

Spectacular eruptions at Bárðarbunga volcano in central Iceland have been spewing lava continuously since Aug. 31. Massive amounts of erupting lava are connected to the destruction of supercontinents and dramatic changes in climate and ecosystems.

New research from UC Davis and Aarhus University in Denmark shows that high mantle temperatures miles beneath the Earth’s surface are essential for generating such large amounts of magma. In fact, the scientists found that the Bárðarbunga volcano lies directly above the hottest portion of the North Atlantic mantle plume.

The study, published online Oct. 5 and appearing in the November issue of Nature Geoscience, comes from Charles Lesher, professor of Earth and Planetary Science at UC Davis and a visiting professor at Aarhus University, and his former PhD student, Eric Brown, now a post-doctoral scholar at Aarhus University.

“From time to time the Earth’s mantle belches out huge quantities of magma on a scale unlike anything witnessed in historic times,” Lesher said. “These events provide unique windows into the internal working of our planet.”

Such fiery events have produced large igneous provinces throughout Earth’s history. They are often attributed to upwelling of hot, deeply sourced mantle material, or “mantle plumes.”

Recent models have dismissed the role of mantle plumes in the formation of large igneous provinces, ascribing their origin instead to chemical anomalies in the shallow mantle.

Holuhraun fissure eruption on the flanks of the Bárðarbunga volcano in central Iceland on Oct. 4, 2014, showing the development of a lava lake in the foreground. Vapor clouds over the lava lake are caused by degassing of volatile-rich basaltic magma. (Photo: Morten S. Riishuus, Nordic Volcanological Institute)

Based on the volcanic record in and around Iceland over the last 56 million years and numerical modeling, Brown and Lesher show that high mantle temperatures are essential for generating the large magma volumes that gave rise to the North Atlantic large igneous provinces bordering Greenland and northern Europe.

Their findings further substantiate the critical role of mantle plumes in forming large igneous provinces.

“Our work offers new tools to constrain the physical and chemical conditions in the mantle responsible for large igneous provinces,” Brown said. “There’s little doubt that the mantle is composed of different types of chemical compounds, but this is not the dominant factor. Rather, locally high mantle temperatures are the key ingredient.”

The research was supported by grants from the US National Science Foundation and by the Niels Bohr Professorship funded by Danish National Research Foundation.

Read the full study at http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2264.html.

Video: Lava Fountains from Bardarbunga Volcano Holuhraun Fissure Eruption viewed by Helicopter

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Perry
October 26, 2014 1:47 am

The Google maps show the islands of Hawaii are just the latest in a series of peaks that might have been islands, running in a line north west to Midway. The explanation is that the volcanic plume has stayed in position, but the crust has moved NW over the plume as shown by the string of underwater peaks. Works for me. https://maps.google.co.uk/maps?rlz=1C1CHFX_en-GBGB547GB547&espv=2&q=hawaii&bav=on.2,or.r_qf.&bvm=bv.77880786,d.d2s&ion=1&biw=1164&bih=576&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=X&ei=5LRMVM-MGo6V7AaSsYCIAw&ved=0CAcQ_AUoAg&output=classic&dg=oo

tty
Reply to  Perry
October 26, 2014 9:48 am

“the islands of Hawaii are just the latest in a series of peaks that might have been islands”
There is no doubt that most were islands, since they are now “guyots”, i. e. submarine mountains capped by a plateau of coral limestone, showing that they once went through a stage as atolls, and as high islands before that. Also many endemic lineages of plants and animals in Hawaii are much older than the oldest islands existing today, showing that there has been land in the general area for a long time.

A C Osborn
October 26, 2014 3:54 am

Does nayone have nay values for how much heat an eruption of this type can put in to the atmosphere?
Surely it must change “local” climate quite a bit?

tty
Reply to  A C Osborn
October 26, 2014 10:09 am

Yes, but only over a fairly small area, most of the heat convects up and away from the area.
To get an idea of the numbers: this eruption has erupted c. 0.8 cubic kilometers of basaltic magma in about 50 days. If we plug in the numbers for the density, specific heat and enthalpy of crystallization of lava and assume that it has on average cooled about 1,000 K the average heat emission would be on the order of 10^12 W. That’s a lot of heat, but it is only equal to the average solar insolation over an area of 3,000 square kilometers, so the heat from even a very large eruption (which this is in terms of erupted volume (and heat)) is fairly minor. The effects of the emission of dust and gasses are far more important, but up until now this has been a very “peaceful” eruption.

Ian L. McQueen
October 26, 2014 10:08 am

FWIW, back in 1964 (or 1968), the two times that I visited Iceland and read up a bit on the place, I was informed that a third of all the lava that has ever appeared on earth has come to the surface in Iceland. Truly an unusual country!
When I was there in 1968, IIRC, I flew to Vestmannaeyjar (Westmann Islands)to watch the eruption of Surtsey . However, reference to the internet tells me that volcanic eruptions on Surtsey stopped in 1967, so now I am wondering what I had seen. It was more than 40 years ago, so I don’t remember the details. (Before leaving for Vestmannaeyjar I had asked what I would see. “Drunken Icelanders” I was told. I saw both the eruption and the Icelanders. They have a good time.) I got bored and returned to Reykjavik.
This posting got me interested again in vocanos and I watched https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_sRw_e5RA34. There are many other videos available there and one could spend a lot of time watching them.
One question unanswered is whether the lava was “a-a” or “pa-hoe-hoe” type. I think the explosive type shown was the latter and that it later settled into the former.
A person I met during my travels said that he has much respect for sharks and volcanos because they show us how powerless man really is.
Jottings of an addled mind.
Ian M

Twobob
October 26, 2014 12:54 pm

Any body have any idea. What the white ball of matter was.
The white object descended from the cloud level to ground level.
All this occurred at 2min 24 sec. of the video.
Seemed to splash on the ground, I do not think it originated from of world?
It was far in the background and did not seem to originate from the eruption.
Enquiring minds want to know.

Twobob
October 26, 2014 1:02 pm

Just looked again and do you know what?
That section of the video has gone….
Must have not saw what I seen.

Twobob
October 26, 2014 1:12 pm

Well that is strange the PDF I saved of the event has gone missing.
Good job I did a screen grab.
Otherwise I would think I was seeing things.
Oh! well Chalk this up to experience.
Should not see things I should not.

Twobob
October 26, 2014 1:24 pm

Talk about seeing thing.
Check out from 2min14sec to 2min 22sec.
I am saying nothing I have learnt my lesson.

masInt branch 4 C3I in is
October 26, 2014 2:44 pm

The first time I learned about hot-spots and mantle plumes in addition to subduction zones and spreading ridges was in a 101 Geology class in 1978. Since then much more research and debate has gone into the hot-spot and plume reference frame for relative and absolute plate motions. An recent reference is a paper JGR 2012 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011JB009072/abstract.

October 26, 2014 10:18 pm

I’ve always thought that Iceland is a bit of the Mid Atlantic Ridge that has grown to be above sea level as the ocean floor continues to spread. Wasn’t it Surtsey [sp] that appeared above sea level back in 1964? Maybe the current activity is a stage in further growth. Give it time, and maybe the whole Atlantic will “fill up” with new rock from the mantle and create another whole continent. Mind you, it’ll probably take 200 million years or so. Just a thought.

Patrick
October 27, 2014 2:13 am

Hawaii has lava flowing and destroying property. Local residents are evacuating.

October 27, 2014 2:14 pm

I’ll just say this. I’d rather have scientists, even if rediscovering or confirming prior science, working on anything other than climate science at this point. I wouldn’t pour so much h8t on ’em. At least these are not crying about the carbon footprint of this volcano oh my oh my. Yet, anyway.

October 27, 2014 11:19 pm

At Bardarbunga:
Aside from two M5.3 quakes at the crater, it is much quieter than 4 days ago near Bardarbunga, but there is a jump in activity in southern Iceland and a Mag 3.8 offshore SW on the Reykjanes Ridge.
Past nine 48 hour seismic event summaries in the Bardarbunga area:

_________ _ _ Oct _ 9-11 _ _10/11-13 _ _13-15 _ _15-17_ _17-19_ _19-21_ _21-23_ _23-25_ _25-27
 M5.1+__ _ _ _ _ _ _(5.2) _ (5.2,5.2) _ (5.4) _ _ _ 0 _ (5.4,5.2) _(5.3)_ _ 0 _ _ (5.3)_(5.3,5.3)
 M 4.5-5.0 _  _  _ _  6 _ _ _ _ 3 _ _ _ _ 6 _ _ _ _ 2 _ _ _ 4 _ _ _ 7 _ _ _ 7 _ _ _ 5 _ _ _ 1
 M 4.0-5.0_   _ _ _ _ 6 _ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _ _ 6 _ _ _ _ 6 _ _ _ 4 _ _ _11 _ _ _17 _ _ _14 _ _ _ 4
 M 3.0-3.9  _ _  _ _ 10_  _ _ _ 8 _ _ _ _ 4 _ _ _ _ 3 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _20 _ _ _29 _ _ _27 _ _ _ 8
 M 2.0-2.9    __ _ _ 34 _  _ _ 25 _ _ _ _16 _ _ _ _13(c) _ 19 _ _ _11 _ _ _ 9 _ _ _ 7 _ _ _17
 M 3.5+(h)_ _ _ _ _ _12 _ _ _ _16 _ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _ 7 _ _ _25 _ _ _55 _57 _41 _17 _14
 @Fissure # _ _  _ _ 24 _ _ _ _26+_ _ _ _30 _ _ _ 0-4(a)_ _13 _ _ _30 _ _ _38 _ _ _26 _ _ _15
 @Fis. MaxM   _ _ _2.0@7 _ _ 1.8@8_ _ _1.2@7 _ _ _ NA _ _ M1.4_ 1.4@5_ 1.4@10_ 2.1@10_ 2.0@10
 Askja #  _ _  _ _ _11a _ _ _  15 _ _ _ 16 _ _ _ _0-2(a)_ _2 _ _ _11 _ _ 26(d) _ _23(d)_ _ 15
 Askja M1.4+(f):_ _ _ ?_ _ _ _ _ ? _ _ _ _ ? _ _ _ _ _0_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _9_ _ _ _0_ _ _ _1
 S. of Bard: _ _ _ 2 M1.1    2 M1.6 _ _4 M1.4 _ _1 NA _ _ 1 M1.1 _ 4 M1.5_ 1_ _ _ _ 3_ _ _ _1
 W. of Bard:_ _ _  8 M3.0 _ _9 M2.4 _ _9 M2.1 _ _17+M2.8_ 15+M1.6_ 1 M0.8_ 4M1.1 _3M1.3 _ _ 1
 Reykj Ridge M2+:_ _ _ 0_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ _0 _ _ _0 _ _ _0 _ _ _ _0_ _ _ _5
 Reykj P M1.0-1.9: _ _ 1_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ _ 2 _ _ _ _0 _ _ _1 _ _ _0 _ _ _ _2_ _ _ _5
 Tjornes M2+,Max:   _ _0_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _1 M2.4_ _ _ _0 _ _ _ _0 _ _ _3 _ _ _0 _ _ _ _0_ _ _ _0
 Tjornes M1.0-1.9   _ _2_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 9 _ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _ _1 _ _ _3 _ _ _5 _ _ _ _2_ _ _ _2
 Myrdalsjokull M1.0+(g)_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _1_ _ 5 M2.7
 N.Atl Offshore__ _ __ 5_ _ _ _ 2_ _ _ _ _0_ _ _ _ _2 _ _ _ _0 _ _ _0 _ _ _5(e) _ _ 3

Notes:
Reykjanes ridge had a M3.8 with 4 others above M2.0
Myrdalsjokull (S. iceland), Mag 2.7, 2.3, and 3 others above 1.0.
The webcams are still black for me, but someone snapped a twitter pic just before the clouds/fog rolled in.https://twitter.com/NJSnowFan/status/526922218270633984
News:
Over 200 Earthquakes in Bárðarbunga over Weekend


World Premier of Drone Video on Tuesday Night

Reply to  Stephen Rasey
October 28, 2014 8:18 pm

The M3.5+ count for the past 48 hours is 23.
There are 9 in the M4.0-5.0 and one M5.1
18 quakes on the Myvatn map (Askja), max M1.4.
West of Bard has little activity, but one M3.8 at 3 km.
Myrdalsjokull (M1.0+) 5, Max 1.5.

October 28, 2014 10:08 am

There is an interesting geological cross-section N-S through the Bardarbunga crater showing subsidence at various times over the past 2 months with a 2011 base line.
Total subsidence of the surface is about 25 meters. But the ice plug in the existing crater is 600-800 meters thick. Even the bottom chart has large vertical exaggeration. http://jardvis.hi.is/maelingar_siginu_i_bardarbungu_med_flugvel_isavia_tf_fms_24_oktober_2014

October 28, 2014 8:27 pm

IcelandView.com “Eruption Journey: Video Round trip to Hell”
It is worth its three minutes. There are may be 10 seconds of great aerial video.
But you won’t miss much if you don’t see it.

October 29, 2014 8:08 pm

Past nine 48 hour seismic event summaries in the Bardarbunga area:

_________ _ _ Oct _ _10/11-13 _ _13-15 _ _15-17_ _17-19_ _19-21_ _21-23_ _23-25_ _25-27_ _27-29
 M5.1+__ _ _ _ _ _ _(5.2,5.2) _ (5.4) _ _ _ 0 _ (5.4,5.2) _(5.3)_ _ 0 _ _ (5.3)_(5.3,5.3)_(5.1)
 M 4.5-5.0 _  _  _ __ _ 3 _ _ _ _ 6 _ _ _ _ 2 _ _ _ 4 _ _ _ 7 _ _ _ 7 _ _ _ 5 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _ 7
 M 4.0-5.0_   _ _ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _ _ 6 _ _ _ _ 6 _ _ _ 4 _ _ _11 _ _ _17 _ _ _14 _ _ _ 4 _ _ _ 8
 M 3.0-3.9  _ _   _ _ _ 8 _ _ _ _ 4 _ _ _ _ 3 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _20 _ _ _29 _ _ _27 _ _ _ 8 _ _ _19
 M 2.0-2.9    __   _ _ 25 _ _ _ _16 _ _ _ _13    _ 19 _ _ _11 _ _ _ 9 _ _ _ 7 _ _ _17 _ _ _ 5
 M 3.5+(h)_ _ _ _ _ _ _16 _ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _ 7 _ _ _25 _ _ _55 _57 _41 _17 _14 _27 _26
 @Fissure # _ _   _ _ _26+_ _ _ _30 _ _ _ 0-4   _ _13 _ _ _30 _ _ _38 _ _ _26 _ _ _15 _ _ _11+
 @Fis. MaxM   _ _  _ 1.8@8_ _ _1.2@7 _ _ _ NA _ _ M1.4_ 1.4@5_ 1.4@10_ 2.1@10_ 2.0@10 _2.0@10
 Askja #  _ _  _  _ _  15 _ _ _ 16 _ _ _ _0-2   _ _2 _ _ _11 _ _ _ 26 _ _ _23_ _ _ 15 _ _ _21
 Askja M1.4+(f):_  _ _ _ ? _ _ _ _ ? _ _ _ _ _0_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _9_ _ _ _0_ _ _ _1 _ _ _ 2
 S. of Bard: _ _ _   2 M1.6 _ _4 M1.4 _ _1 NA _ _ 1 M1.1 _ 4 M1.5_ 1_ _ _ _ 3_ _ _ _1 _ _ _ 1
 W. of Bard:_ _ _ _ _9 M2.4 _ _9 M2.1 _ _17+M2.8_ 15+M1.6_ 1 M0.8_ 4M1.1 _3M1.3 _ _ 1 _ _4M3.8
 Reykj Ridge M2+:_ _  _ _ _ _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ _0 _ _ _0 _ _ _0 _ _ _ _0_ _ _ _5 _ _ _ 1
 Reykj P M1.0-1.9: __ _ _ _ _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ _ 2 _ _ _ _0 _ _ _1 _ _ _0 _ _ _ _2_ _ _ _5 _ _ _ 1
 Tjornes M2+,Max:   _ _ _ _ _ _1 M2.4_ _ _ _0 _ _ _ _0 _ _ _3 _ _ _0 _ _ _ _0_ _ _ _0 _ _ _ 1
 Tjornes M1.0-1.9 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 9 _ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _ _1 _ _ _3 _ _ _5 _ _ _ _2_ _ _ _2 _ _ _ 2
 Myrdalsjokull M1.0+(g)_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _1_ _ 5 M2.7 _ _ 3
 N.Atl Offshore__ _ _ _ 2_ _ _ _ _0_ _ _ _ _2 _ _ _ _0 _ _ _0 _ _ _5(e) _ _ 3 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 0

Askja maximum is M1.8.
“Geothermal heat continues to increase in Bárðarbunga. Scientists on a surveillance flight above the volcano yesterday could clearly see cauldrons that had formed in the glacier on the western and southeastern rim of the caldera, ruv.is reports.” – More Earthquakes in Bárðarbunga, Heat Increases
Mashable: So, remember that volcano in Iceland? It’s still erupting like crazySome good photos and a video link.

Reply to  Stephen Rasey
October 29, 2014 8:39 pm

The Webcam #2 is alive and bright tonight.
Facebook photo of screen shot

Reply to  Stephen Rasey
October 30, 2014 10:42 pm

M3.5+ count past 48 hours is 21.
For the past 24 hours it is only 8.
Nothing bigger than M1.0 near Askja.
Nothing offshore
Nothing significant at the other parts of the island.
The Webcams are blacked out.
There is a ground level and helicopter video of the eruption byDaniel Haußmann I rate it 2.5/5 stars; not bad but a long way from the best that is out there.
There is another video shot from a small plane on mbl.is, “Holuhraun lava-field seen from the air.” that rates 1/2 a star.

October 31, 2014 11:59 am

Past nine 48 hour seismic event summaries in the Bardarbunga area:

_________ _ _ Oct __ _ _13-15 _ _15-17_ _17-19_ _19-21_ _21-23_ _23-25_ _25-27_ _27-29_ _29-31
 M5.1+__ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ (5.4) _ _ _ 0 _ (5.4,5.2) _(5.3)_ _ 0 _ _ (5.3)_(5.3,5.3)_(5.1)_ _(5.1)
 M 4.5-5.0 _  _  _ _ _ _ 6 _ _ _ _ 2 _ _ _ 4 _ _ _ 7 _ _ _ 7 _ _ _ 5 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _ 7 _ _ _ 4
 M 4.0-5.0_   _ _ _ __ _ 6 _ _ _ _ 6 _ _ _ 4 _ _ _11 _ _ _17 _ _ _14 _ _ _ 4 _ _ _ 8 _ _ _ 9
 M 3.0-3.9  _ _   _  _ _ 4 _ _ _ _ 3 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _20 _ _ _29 _ _ _27 _ _ _ 8 _ _ _19 _ _ _11
 M 2.0-2.9    __   _ _ _16 _ _ _ _13    _ 19 _ _ _11 _ _ _ 9 _ _ _ 7 _ _ _17 _ _ _ 5 _ _ _16
 M 3.5+(h)_ _ _ _ _  _ _ 8 _ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _ 7 _ _ _25 _ _ _55 _57 _41 _17 _14 _27 _26 _21 _21
 @Fissure # _ _   __ _ _30 _ _ _ 0-4   _ _13 _ _ _30 _ _ _38 _ _ _26 _ _ _15 _ _ _11+_ _ _ 6
 @Fis. MaxM   _ _  _ _1.2@7 _ _ _ NA _ _ M1.4_ 1.4@5_ 1.4@10_ 2.1@10_ 2.0@10 _2.0@10 _ 0.9@7
 Askja #  _ _  _   _ _ 16 _ _ _ _0-2   _ _2 _ _ _11 _ _ _ 26 _ _ _23_ _ _ 15 _ _ _21 _ _ _ 3
 Askja M1.4+(f):_  __ _ _ ? _ _ _ _ _0_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _9_ _ _ _0_ _ _ _1 _ _ _ 2 _ _ _ 0
 S. of Bard: _ _ _ _ _4 M1.4 _ _1 NA _ _ 1 M1.1 _ 4 M1.5_ 1_ _ _ _ 3_ _ _ _1 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _ 0
 W. of Bard:_ _ _ __ _9 M2.1 _ _17+M2.8_ 15+M1.6_ 1 M0.8_ 4M1.1 _3M1.3 _ _ 1 _ _4M3.8 _ _ _0
 Reykj Ridge M2+:_ _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ _0 _ _ _0 _ _ _0 _ _ _ _0_ _ _ _5 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _ 4
 Reykj P M1.0-1.9: ___ _ 0 _ _ _ _ 2 _ _ _ _0 _ _ _1 _ _ _0 _ _ _ _2_ _ _ _5 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _15
 Tjornes M2+,Max:    _1 M2.4_ _ _ _0 _ _ _ _0 _ _ _3 _ _ _0 _ _ _ _0_ _ _ _0 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _ 0
 Tjornes M1.0-1.9 _ __ _ 9 _ _ _ _ 8 _ _ _ _1 _ _ _3 _ _ _5 _ _ _ _2_ _ _ _2 _ _ _ 2 _ _ _ 0
 Myrdalsjokull M1.0+(g) _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _1_ _ 5 M2.7 _ _ 3 _ _ _ 0
 N.Atl Offshore__ _ _ _ _0_ _ _ _ _2 _ _ _ _0 _ _ _0 _ _ _5(e) _ _ 3 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 0

Very quiet seismically at the fissure. Only 6 small quakes in past 48 hrs and none in past 24. Makes you wonder if the equipment is on.
Reykjanes Ridge: The only sig. activity outside of Bardarbunga: A Mag 3.3 and a dozen M1.0-M3.0 aftershocks. Tight cluster.
News: Geothermal Heat at Bardarbunga Melts Glacier at the rate of about 2 m^3/sec. That is about 80 cubic feet / sec, only a small part of the stream flow. My problem is how do they know how much is being melted inside the caldera if it doesn’t leak out? How big could the melt-water lake be at the base of what’s left of the 800 meter thick ice plug?
Total subsidence in caldera is 42 meters. Science advisory board sees no changes in the situation.

Reply to  Stephen Rasey
November 1, 2014 5:20 pm

Very interesting activity plot today:
There is a 5.3 and a 5.2. Not at all unusual. They are shallow at 2 km.
M4.0-5.0 count is 12; high side of normal
M3.5+ has 22, not much different than the last week.
What is unusual is that there are ZERO quakes in the range M2.0 and 3.5.
Also, there are no quakes of any size in the past 48 hrs at the fissure or NE. of Askja.
There is some activity N and W of Bardarbunga.
http://en.vedur.is/photos/jarvatj_rit/141101_2335.png
So the big quake activity continues in the crater, but minor quake activity is down and the fissure is seismically quiet.
The web cams are black.
No news except for concern over SO2 and Sulfate levels.
It is currently releasing 35,000 tons of SO2 per day.

Reply to  Stephen Rasey
November 1, 2014 5:22 pm
November 2, 2014 2:23 pm

Past nine 48 hour seismic event summaries in the Bardarbunga area:

_________ _ _ Oct __ __ _15-17_ _17-19_ _19-21_ _21-23_ _23-25_ _25-27_ _27-29_ _29-31_ 31-02
 M5.1+__ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 0 _ (5.4,5.2) _(5.3)_ _ 0 _ _ (5.3)_(5.3,5.3)_(5.1)_ _(5.1)_(5.2,5.3)
 M 4.5-5.0 _  _  _ _ _ _ _ 2 _ _ _ 4 _ _ _ 7 _ _ _ 7 _ _ _ 5 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _ 7 _ _ _ 4 _ _ _ 5
 M 4.0-5.0_   _ _ _ __ _ _ 6 _ _ _ 4 _ _ _11 _ _ _17 _ _ _14 _ _ _ 4 _ _ _ 8 _ _ _ 9 _ _ _20
 M 3.0-3.9  _ _   _  _ _ _ 3 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _20 _ _ _29 _ _ _27 _ _ _ 8 _ _ _19 _ _ _11 _ _ _ 3
 M 2.0-2.9    __   _ _ _ _13    _ 19 _ _ _11 _ _ _ 9 _ _ _ 7 _ _ _17 _ _ _ 5 _ _ _16 _ _ _ 3
 M 3.5+(h)_ _ _ _ _  _ _ _ 8 _ _ _ 7 _ _ _25 _ _ _55 _57 _41 _17 _14 _27 _26 _21 _21 _22 _25
 @Fissure # _ _   __ _ _ 0-4   _ _13 _ _ _30 _ _ _38 _ _ _26 _ _ _15 _ _ _11+_ _ _ 6 _ _ _ 4
 @Fis. MaxM   _ _  _  _ _ NA _ _ M1.4_ 1.4@5_ 1.4@10_ 2.1@10_ 2.0@10 _2.0@10 _ 0.9@7 _ 1.4@17
 Askja(Myvatn)# _  _  _ _0-2   _ _2 _ _ _11 _ _ _ 26 _ _ _23_ _ _ 15 _ _ _21 _ _ _ 3 _ _ _ 2
 Askja M1.4+(f):_  __ _ _ _ _0_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _9_ _ _ _0_ _ _ _1 _ _ _ 2 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 1
 S. of Bard: _ _ _ _ _ _1 NA _ _ 1 M1.1 _ 4 M1.5_ 1_ _ _ _ 3_ _ _ _1 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 2
 W. of Bard:_ _ _ __ _ _17+M2.8_ 15+M1.6_ 1 M0.8_ 4M1.1 _3M1.3 _ _ 1 _ _4M3.8 _ _ _0 _ _2M1.6
 Reykj Ridge M2+:_ _ _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ _0 _ _ _0 _ _ _0 _ _ _ _0_ _ _ _5 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _ 4 _ _ _ 0
 Reykj P M1.0-1.9: ___ _ _ 2 _ _ _ _0 _ _ _1 _ _ _0 _ _ _ _2_ _ _ _5 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _15 _ _ _ 4
 Tjornes M2+,Max:    _  _ _0 _ _ _ _0 _ _ _3 _ _ _0 _ _ _ _0_ _ _ _0 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 0
 Tjornes M1.0-1.9 _ __ _ _ 8 _ _ _ _1 _ _ _3 _ _ _5 _ _ _ _2_ _ _ _2 _ _ _ 2 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 2
 Myrdalsjokull M1.0+(g)_  _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _1_ _ 5 M2.7 _ _ 3 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 1
 N.Atl Offshore__ _ _ _ _ _2 _ _ _ _0 _ _ _0 _ _ _5 _ _ _ _3 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 0_ _ _ 2

 
While the number of M3.5+ quakes is about steady, their mean magnitude is increasing. These past two days has an unusual number of M4.0-5.0 quakes.They are all in the Bardarbunga crater. Furthermore, they are concentrated in the northern portion of the crater and all are above 10 km.The area of the seismic activity at the crater has not grown; the M3.0+ quakes have concentrated. The sub M3.0 quakes in the south of the crater swarm are in the same place as M3.0+ quakes we saw Oct 23-24.
N.Atl Offshore: 2 sub 3.0 quakes on Reykjanes Ridge
News:Icelandreview.com
The eruption in Holuhraun is still active, but Iceland Met says the underground magma flow seems to be minimal.
More than 20 earthquakes of magnitude greater than four have occurred in the past three days, the biggest on Friday which measured 5.2. All are to the northeast of Bárðarbunga.

Webcams are black.

Reply to  Stephen Rasey
November 3, 2014 9:21 pm

Tonight the webcams are on. Webcam #2 looks dim, but I think the camera is zoomed back.
Seismic activity at the fissue is back with 17 events in the past 48 hrs. Largest is M1.4 at 15km.
There are also 7 quakes at Askja, but all below M1.0.
There is one M2.0 at Mýrdalsjökull (S. Iceland).
Nothing special offshore.
News: Icelandreview.com

… The Holuhraun is massive compared to other eruptions in Iceland too. In the two months that it has lasted, the volume of lava has reached 1 cubic km, or 1,000 million cubic meters, which is more lava than was erupted during the 13 months that the 1947 Hekla eruption lasted, ruv.is reports.
In terms of volume of lava, the Holuhraun eruption is now the biggest in Iceland since the 1783 Laki eruption (aka Skaftáreldar). ….

November 4, 2014 10:02 pm

Past nine 48 hour seismic event summaries in the Bardarbunga area:

_________ _ _ Oct __ __ _17-19_ _19-21_ _21-23_ _23-25_ _25-27_ _27-29_ _29-31_ 31-02 Nov 2-4
 M5.1+__ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ (5.4,5.2) _(5.3)_ _ 0 _ _ (5.3)_(5.3,5.3)_(5.1)_ _(5.1)_(5.2,5.3) _ 0
 M 4.5-5.0 _  _  _ _ _ _ _ 4 _ _ _ 7 _ _ _ 7 _ _ _ 5 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _ 7 _ _ _ 4 _ _ _ 5 _ _ _ 4
 M 4.0-5.0_   _ _ _ __ _ _ 4 _ _ _11 _ _ _17 _ _ _14 _ _ _ 4 _ _ _ 8 _ _ _ 9 _ _ _20 _ _ _12
 M 3.0-3.9  _ _   _  _ _ _ 1 _ _ _20 _ _ _29 _ _ _27 _ _ _ 8 _ _ _19 _ _ _11 _ _ _ 3 _ _ _ 7
 M 2.0-2.9    __   _    _ 19 _ _ _11 _ _ _ 9 _ _ _ 7 _ _ _17 _ _ _ 5 _ _ _16 _ _ _ 3 _ _ _17
 M 3.5+(h)_ _ _ _ _  _ _ _ 7 _ _ _25 _ _ _55 _57 _41 _17 _14 _27 _26 _21 _21 _22 _25 _22 _17
 @Fissure # _ _   __   _ _13 _ _ _30 _ _ _38 _ _ _26 _ _ _15 _ _ _11+_ _ _ 6 _ _ _ 4 _ _ _20
 @Fis. MaxM   _ _  _ _ _ M1.4_ 1.4@5_ 1.4@10_ 2.1@10_ 2.0@10 _2.0@10 _ 0.9@7 _ 1.4@17_ 1.2@12
 Askja(Myvatn)# _  _   _ _2 _ _ _11 _ _ _ 26 _ _ _23_ _ _ 15 _ _ _21 _ _ _ 3 _ _ _ 2 _ _ _ 8
 Askja M1.4+(f):_  __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _9_ _ _ _0_ _ _ _1 _ _ _ 2 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _ 2
 S. of Bard: _ _ _ _ _ _ 1 M1.1 _ 4 M1.5_ 1_ _ _ _ 3_ _ _ _1 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 2 _ _ _ 4
 W. of Bard:_ _ _ __ _ _ 15+M1.6_ 1 M0.8_ 4M1.1 _3M1.3 _ _ 1 _ _4M3.8 _ _ _0 _ _2M1.6 __1M1.9
 Reykj Ridge M2+:_ _ _ _ _ _0 _ _ _0 _ _ _0 _ _ _ _0_ _ _ _5 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _ 4 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 3
 Reykj P M1.0-1.9: ___ _ _ _0 _ _ _1 _ _ _0 _ _ _ _2_ _ _ _5 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _15 _ _ _ 4 _ _ _ 2
 Tjornes M2+,Max:    _ _ _ _0 _ _ _3 _ _ _0 _ _ _ _0_ _ _ _0 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 0
 Tjornes M1.0-1.9 _ __ _ _ _1 _ _ _3 _ _ _5 _ _ _ _2_ _ _ _2 _ _ _ 2 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 2 _ _ _ 5
 Myrdalsjokull M1.0+(g)_  _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _1_ _ 5 M2.7 _ _ 3 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _ 1
 N.Atl Offshore__ _ _ _  _ _0 _ _ _0 _ _ _5 _ _ _ _3 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 2 _ _ _ 4

The Bardarbunga #2 webcam is bright tonight.
News: Picture from high altitude of the lava field in a field of snow. Source: icelandmag.com

Reply to  Stephen Rasey
November 5, 2014 6:53 pm

M3.5+ Count is 13, the lowest since Oct. 20.
No quakes above 5.0 for the past 4 days.
Webcams are black tonight, but they were visible at dusk (you could see the black lava flow in a field of snow.)
News is about air pollution.
An oblique aerial picture along the lava front toward the fissure. (h/t Twitter: Oliver_Dogot)
http://40.media.tumblr.com/6f9014ba416c696b506031b07e736f82/tumblr_nc5rscVZFk1s5cyzso1_1280.jpg

November 6, 2014 8:33 pm

Past nine 48 hour seismic event summaries in the Bardarbunga area:

_________ _ _ Oct __ __ _19-21_ _21-23_ _23-25_ _25-27_ _27-29_ _29-31_ 31-02 Nov 2-4 _ 04-06
 M5.1+__ _ _ _ _ _ _ _  _(5.3) _ _ 0 _ _ (5.3)_(5.3,5.3)_(5.1)_ _(5.1)_(5.2,5.3) _ 0 _ _ _ 0
 M 4.5-5.0 _  _  _ _ _ _ _ 7 _ _ _ 7 _ _ _ 5 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _ 7 _ _ _ 4 _ _ _ 5 _ _ _ 4 _ _ _ 5
 M 4.0-5.0_   _ _ _ __ _ _11 _ _ _17 _ _ _14 _ _ _ 4 _ _ _ 8 _ _ _ 9 _ _ _20 _ _ _12 _ _ _ 8
 M 3.0-3.9  _ _   _  _ _ _20 _ _ _29 _ _ _27 _ _ _ 8 _ _ _19 _ _ _11 _ _ _ 3 _ _ _ 7 _ _ _ 4
 M 2.0-2.9    __   _ _ _ _11 _ _ _ 9 _ _ _ 7 _ _ _17 _ _ _ 5 _ _ _16 _ _ _ 3 _ _ _17 _ _ _30
 M 3.5+(h)_ _ _ _ _  _ _ _25 _ _ _55 _57 _41 _17 _14 _27 _26 _21 _21 _22 _25 _22 _17 _13 _11
 @Fissure # _ _   __ _ _ _30 _ _ _38 _ _ _26 _ _ _15 _ _ _11+_ _ _ 6 _ _ _ 4 _ _ _20 _ _ _ 9
 @Fis. MaxM   _ _  _ _ 1.4@5_ 1.4@10_ 2.1@10_ 2.0@10 _2.0@10 _ 0.9@7 _ 1.4@17_ 1.2@12_ 1.0@12
 Askja(Myvatn)# _  __ _ _11 _ _ _ 26 _ _ _23_ _ _ 15 _ _ _21 _ _ _ 3 _ _ _ 2 _ _ _ 8 _ _ _12
 Askja M1.4+(f):_  __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _9_ _ _ _0_ _ _ _1 _ _ _ 2 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _ 2 _ _ _ 2
 S. of Bard: _ _ _ _ _  _ 4 M1.5_ 1_ _ _ _ 3_ _ _ _1 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 2 _ _ _ 4 _ _ _ 2
 W. of Bard:_ _ _ __ _ __ 1 M0.8_ 4M1.1 _3M1.3 _ _ 1 _ _4M3.8 _ _ _0 _ _2M1.6 __1M1.9 _ 1M1.8
 Reykj Ridge M2+:_ _  _ _ _0 _ _ _0 _ _ _ _0_ _ _ _5 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _ 4 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 3 _ _ _ 1
 Reykj P M1.0-1.9: __ _ _ _1 _ _ _0 _ _ _ _2_ _ _ _5 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _15 _ _ _ 4 _ _ _ 2 _ _ _ 0
 Tjornes M2+,Max:     _ _ _3 _ _ _0 _ _ _ _0_ _ _ _0 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 0
 Tjornes M1.0-1.9 _ _ _ _ _3 _ _ _5 _ _ _ _2_ _ _ _2 _ _ _ 2 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 2 _ _ _ 5 _ _ _ 5
 Myrdalsjokull M1.0+(g)_  _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _1_ _ 5 M2.7 _ _ 3 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _ 4
 N.Atl Offshore__ _ _ _ _ _0 _ _ _5 _ _ _ _3 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 2 _ _ _ 4 _ _ _ 1

Around October 22-24 there were 57 quakes that were Mag 3.5 or larger in a 48 hour period.
Two weeks later, it is down to the low teens.
The Bardarbunga #2 webcam is black. With snow falling, there is much steam rising from the lavafield.

The eruption seems unchanged but driving conditions have worsened, hindering field observations. The subsidence of the Bárðarbunga caldera has reached 44 m which corresponds to 1.1-1.2 km³. The adjacent geothermal cauldrons have deepened by 5-8 m in the last eleven days. Horizontal displacements towards Bárðarbunga have decreased slightly. (areal photo of steaming lava field in a field of snow.)
Soruceen.vedur.is

November 8, 2014 9:13 pm

Past nine 48 hour seismic event summaries in the Bardarbunga area:

_________ _ _ Oct __ __ _21-23_ _23-25_ _25-27_ _27-29_ _29-31_ 31-02 Nov 2-4 _ 04-06 _ 06-08
 M5.1+__ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 0 _ _ (5.3)_(5.3,5.3)_(5.1)_ _(5.1)_(5.2,5.3) _ 0 _ _ _ 0 _ _(5.4)
 M 4.5-5.0 _  _  _ _ _ _ _ 7 _ _ _ 5 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _ 7 _ _ _ 4 _ _ _ 5 _ _ _ 4 _ _ _ 5 _ _ _ 3
 M 4.0-5.0_   _ _ _ __ _ _17 _ _ _14 _ _ _ 4 _ _ _ 8 _ _ _ 9 _ _ _20 _ _ _12 _ _ _ 8 _ _ _11
 M 3.0-3.9  _ _   _  _ _ _29 _ _ _27 _ _ _ 8 _ _ _19 _ _ _11 _ _ _ 3 _ _ _ 7 _ _ _ 4 _ _ _ 3
 M 2.0-2.9    __   _ _ _ _ 9 _ _ _ 7 _ _ _17 _ _ _ 5 _ _ _16 _ _ _ 3 _ _ _17 _ _ _30 _ _ _25
 M 3.5+(h)_ _ _ _ _  _ _ _55 _57 _41 _17 _14 _27 _26 _21 _21 _22 _25 _22 _17 _13 _11 _ _ _13
 Fissure # _ _   __ _ _ _38 _ _ _26 _ _ _15 _ _ _11+_ _ _ 6 _ _ _ 4 _ _ _20 _ _ _ 9 _ _ _13
 Fis. MaxM   _ _  __ 1.410_ 2.110_ 2.010 _2.010 _ 0.97 _ 1.417_ 1.212_ 1.012 _ 1.213
 Askja(Myvatn)# _  __ _ _ 26 _ _ _23_ _ _ 15 _ _ _21 _ _ _ 3 _ _ _ 2 _ _ _ 8 _ _ _12 _ _ _33
 Askja M1.4+(f):_  __ _ _ _9_ _ _ _0_ _ _ _1 _ _ _ 2 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _ 2 _ _ _ 2 _ _ _ 9
 S. of Bard: _ _ _ _ _  _ 1_ _ _ _ 3_ _ _ _1 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 2 _ _ _ 4 _ _ _ 2 _ _ _ 1
 W. of Bard:_ _ _ __ _ __ 4M1.1 _3M1.3 _ _ 1 _ _4M3.8 _ _ _0 _ _2M1.6 __1M1.9 _ 1M1.8_ _ _ 0
 Reykj Ridge M2+:_ _  __ _0 _ _ _ _0_ _ _ _5 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _ 4 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 3 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _ 0
 Reykj P M1.0-1.9: __ _  _0 _ _ _ _2_ _ _ _5 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _15 _ _ _ 4 _ _ _ 2 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 0
 Tjornes M2+,Max:     __ _0 _ _ _ _0_ _ _ _0 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 0
 Tjornes M1.0-1.9 _ __ _ _5 _ _ _ _2_ _ _ _2 _ _ _ 2 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 2 _ _ _ 5 _ _ _ 5 _ _ _ 9
 Myrdalsjokull M1.0+(g) _ _ _ _ _ _1_ _ 5 M2.7 _ _ 3 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _ 4 _ _ _ 4
 N.Atl Offshore__ _ _  _ _5 _ _ _ _3 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ 2 _ _ _ 4 _ _ _ 1 _ _ _ 4

Much activity NE of Askja (one at M2.3, six M1.5-M1.9, 24 from M1.0 – M1.4),
According to the 3DBulge, most are in a tight pipe from 10 km to 3 km
at an old coneLat/Lon: 65.18 N 16.3 W
One M1.6 4 km at Askja.
The Bardarbunga #2 webcam black. News is flow is unchanged.
Two twitter pics of note: Northern Lights and Bardarbungahttps://twitter.com/GudrunTh/status/531038218243031040/photo/1Northern Lights, Bardarbunga, MilkyWay
https://twitter.com/walletheapp/status/531195098370179072/photo/1