From the AGU: Anthropogenically induced changes in winds in the Southern Hemisphere are playing a key role in recent warming of subsurface waters around Antarctica, according to a new study by Spence et al. The warming water increases melting of coastal glaciers and thus could affect sea levels in the future.
Since the 1950s, westerly winds in the Southern Hemisphere have been picking up and shifting poleward, due to anthropogenic global climate warming. The authors combined half a century of atmospheric data with a model of the coastal currents that shuttle water around Antarctic glaciers. Easterly winds create surface currents that pump cool fresh water downward, the authors demonstrated, keeping the temperatures at the bases of glaciers cool and pushing warm water away. But the westerly winds reduce these currents, and as a result, warm water creeps inward and upward toward the shore, where it heats up glaciers. Warm temperatures along grounding lines—where the glacier meets the ocean floor—especially increase melting.
The authors found that the changing westerly winds are responsible for an increase in water temperature of 2.5 °C on the western side of the Antarctic Peninsula, at critical depths of 200–700 meters. They calculated that the total heat increase in that region was enough to cause a sea level rise of 5.5 mm over the past 50 years (assuming that the grounded ice remains stationary). Based on the strong relationship between temperature increases and these winds, the authors think that current projections for sea level rise may be significantly underestimated.
Rapid subsurface warming and circulation changes of Antarctic coastal waters by poleward shifting winds
Abstract
The southern hemisphere westerly winds have been strengthening and shifting poleward since the 1950s. This wind trend is projected to persist under continued anthropogenic forcing, but the impact of the changing winds on Antarctic coastal heat distribution remains poorly understood. Here we show that a poleward wind shift at the latitudes of the Antarctic Peninsula can produce an intense warming of subsurface coastal waters that exceeds 2°C at 200–700 m depth. The model simulated warming results from a rapid advective heat flux induced by weakened near-shore Ekman pumping and is associated with weakened coastal currents. This analysis shows that anthropogenically induced wind changes can dramatically increase the temperature of ocean water at ice sheet grounding lines and at the base of floating ice shelves around Antarctica, with potentially significant ramifications for global sea level rise.
sooo…that 2.5°C isn’t related to the recently discovered volcanic activity?
Models don’t do volcanoes except maybe as a constant used as a factor that climate scientists tweak as necessary to arrive at a pre-defined conclusion.
Too bad modelers don’t do the double blind test.
“the warming water increases melting of coastal glaciers”
See the WUWT article “John Cook’s claim of a ‘warmer southern ocean’ is proven wrong”.
Sea surface temperatures, 700 meter temperatures, over generalizing for the entire Antarctic using localized data of unknown consistency, warming causing cooling here, cooling causing warming there, warming causing warming someplace else, sea ice, surface land ice – who cares, it doesn’t matter. Understanding climate is not the purpose of papers like these, especially the ones that start with the assumption that AGW is as well established as gravity.
The purpose is to enforce the idea that modern Civilization is coming to an end because we do not have enough windmills, solar panels and most importantly global taxes.
How do you handle the ever-shifting temperature record? GISS pushed the mid 1930s record high down because they saw the big 1998 el Nino as possibly the last chance in many years to be able to report new high records because of global warming. If this study had been done in 1997, it would have the southern polar seas cooling relatively. The price to be paid for jiggering the temperature record is it makes research essentially impossible. eg.: the models with the older thermometric measurements would have the wind blowing the other way!
…then again, it could not.
Haven’t we just argued in WUWT that there has been NO warming of the Antarctic water and ice-top temperatures (other than that from sub-ice volcanism)?
Doug Proctor,
Do you have any idea what he is babbling about? I don’t.
It’s a drive-by spitball. Our spitballer is in a snit because Anarctica is cooling instead of warming.
Science 12 September 2014:
Vol. 345 no. 6202 pp. 1354-1358
DOI: 10.1126/science.1256697
REPORT
Boundary condition of grounding lines prior to collapse, Larsen-B Ice Shelf, Antarctica
Abstract: Grounding zones, where ice sheets transition between resting on bedrock to full floatation, help regulate ice flow. Exposure of the sea floor by the 2002 Larsen-B Ice Shelf collapse allowed detailed morphologic mapping and sampling of the embayment sea floor. Marine geophysical data collected in 2006 reveal a large, arcuate, complex grounding zone sediment system at the front of Crane Fjord. Radiocarbon-constrained chronologies from marine sediment cores indicate loss of ice contact with the bed at this site about 12,000 years ago. Previous studies and morphologic mapping of the fjord suggest that the Crane Glacier grounding zone was well within the fjord before 2002 and did not retreat further until after the ice shelf collapse. This implies that the 2002 Larsen-B Ice Shelf collapse likely was a response to surface warming rather than to grounding zone instability, strengthening the idea that surface processes controlled the disintegration of the Larsen Ice Shelf.
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note the last sentence of tis report abstract. Warm water melting at the depth of the glacier grounding lines is a myth.
All we need to know is this from WUWT in 2008:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/01/22/surprise-theres-an-active-volcano-under-antarctic-ice/
“Larsen Ice Shelves A and B, by the way, sit astride a chain of volcanic vent islands known as the Seal Nunataks, which may figure into melting and breakups like this and this. (h/t Alan)”
I suppose we have to disregard some inconvenient facts.
1) The only place glaciers are melting is around the West Antractic Peninsula where presumably the geothermal heat sources discovered there have no effect at all since not being in the model they do not really exist.
2) There is no proof or even indication that the wind direction change is at all anthropgenic.
3) We have essentially no historic data to establish a baseline that can be called ‘normal’
4) We have no data to indicate any of this is real, just a computer model that says it MIGHT happen and that is based on a bunch of fact free assumptions.
This is not science its an exercise in misusing simulation. They appear to have started with the desired result and designed a model to reproduce it without bothering with trivial stuff like ACTUAL water conditions.
Sheesh
Whenever you think they are getting a bit more serious about this debate they come up with a bit of nonsense like this and you know they aren’t. They are just taking the mickey.
Let’s ask the pinguins.
http://www.martingrund.de/pinguine/pinguincam2.htm#1
There is a stranded iceberg just in front of them.
You know that if glaciers stopped calving and ice bergs stopped happening it would be ascribed to anthropogenic global [fill in the blank] and that we should stop [fill in the blank] so that ice bergs can once again break free of glaciers and ice shelves to float free and wild.
So, if the warmunists know that the trends of the past half century mean that there should be more sea ice, then why did they go to Antarctica last year looking for less ice, only to get themselves and their wives & kids stuck in the more ice that was actually there and that they claim their theories say was supposed to be there in the first place?
Since climate science proved that a model is as good as a measurement I began showing prospective sex partners a model of my endowment. Sure enough, 97% preferred the model. :^(
As soon as I read “model” I reflect on well other “models” have predicted things in the past and are trying to predict in the future. I then stop.
With apologies to the “Few”of the “Battle of Britain”
Climate warming model science;
“Never has so much hot crap been produced by so few for so little benefit to so many”
“The warming water increases melting of coastal glaciers ”
Er … didn’t Bob Tisdale just present data that shows the Southern Ocean is cooling?
No, but this paper shows warming in the Antarctic…
Increasing Antarctic Sea Ice under Warming Atmospheric and Oceanic Conditions
JINLUN ZHANG
Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, College of Ocean and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington,
ABSTRACT
Estimates of sea ice extent based on satellite observations show an increasing Antarctic sea ice cover from
1979 to 2004 even though in situ observations show a prevailing warming trend in both the atmosphere and
the ocean.
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/zhang/Pubs/Zhang_Antarctic_20-11-2515.pdf
Martin,
Not exactly. This is a highly technical 2006 paper from which singular conclusions are impossible. Zhang writes, “Although satellite observations over 1982–98 show a cooling over parts of the Antarctic continent, a general warming occurred in the surface temperature of the peripheral seas (Kwok and Comiso 2002).”
The first two sentences in Zhang’s Conclusion are:
In other words, a little bit of this, a little bit of that.
Spence and Co use “projected”, “may”, “can”, “model” and “likely” lot but “measured” seems to be absent.
And again they are looking at a single factor……..in this case wind
Volcanism perhaps ?
http://www.utexas.edu/news/2014/06/10/antarctic-glacier-melting/
So…the surface waters are now warmer than before? Is that why the sea ice is spreading to record extents?
Have you noticed that compulsive liars never stop talking?
Why cant they just give themselves a rest and wait and see whether rapidly growing Antarctic ice really does mean catastrophic warming, or something else.
An annotated graph taken from Paul Homewood’s page on Roy Spencer’s comparison of the two main satellite records. Interesting double hump shows up, which suggests that global temperatures will likely drop in 2015/2016. No scientific reason, simply looking at the wave shape of the 1979 to 2014 satellite record. Of no scientific predictive value whatsoever; but it will interesting to see what happens:
?dl=0
“They calculated that the total heat increase in that region was enough to cause a sea level rise of 5.5 mm over the past 50 years”
I hope they are right. At that rate, sea level will rise a foot in 2,770 years. The next ice age might come before that time.
Anthropogenically induced changes in winds in the Southern Hemisphere???
Is this evidence of just how low today’s pseudo-scientists have sunk? Humans cannot affect factors such as the winds, the ocean currents, the jet stream, the clouds, or anything else climatic as a consequence of emitting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
How can the AGU even allow such papers to be published? Doesn’t the AGU have quality control procedures to prevent such outlandish claims that humans can influence the winds in the southern hemisphere? It’s a disgrace.
Unbelievable!!!!!!!