Climate Dialogue about the sun

Hi, Mario — since you and I discussed the UV issue a few months ago, and since I know you are VERY busy, too busy to write in detail, here, I am writing the following to support your well-reasoned, logical, insightful, speculation about fluctuations in UV v. a v. the climate of the Earth:
I. Model Simulations re: Solar Radiation and UV Are Largely Inconclusive
Comment: {thus, anyone asserting that he knows that UV does NOT affect climate significantly is not in line with current science}

*** SORCE (SOlar Radiation and Climate Experiment)
satellite [data] suggest a significantly stronger variability in the ultraviolet (UV) spectral range and changes in the visible and near-infrared (NIR) bands in anti-phase with the solar cycle. A number of recent chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations have shown that this might have significant implications on the Earth’s atmosphere. ***
We show that, [however], the SORCE measurements are difficult to reconcile with earlier observations and with SSI models. … only one shows a behaviour of the UV and visible irradiance qualitatively resembling that of the recent SORCE measurements. However, [Moreover,?] the integral of the SSI computed with this model over the entire spectral range does not reproduce the measured cyclical changes of the total solar irradiance, which is an essential requisite for realistic evaluations of solar effects on the Earth’s climate in CCMs. ***
… the direct solar response in the stratosphere is larger for the
SORCE than for the NRLSSI data. Correspondingly, larger UV forcing also leads to a larger surface response.

[Source: Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3945–3977, p. 1 (Abstract) (2013) –
emphasis mine
Link: http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/3945/2013/acp-13-3945-2013.pdf CITED IN: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/28/solar-spectral-irradiance-uv-and-declining-solar-activity/%5D
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II. UV Photochemistry – Atmospheric Chemistry – Climate Implications
A. Source: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2007JD009391/abstract;jsessionid=F260393BA633AC61CE096310650A8316.f04t03

Abstract
Keywords:
• solar cycle;
• stratospheric ozone;
• stratospheric temperature
[1] The 11-year solar cycles in ozone and temperature are examined using new simulations of coupled chemistry climate models. The results show a secondary maximum in stratospheric tropical ozone, in agreement with satellite observations and in contrast with most previously published simulations. The mean model response varies by up to about 2.5% in ozone and 0.8 K in temperature during a typical solar cycle, at the lower end of the observed ranges of peak responses. Neither the upper atmospheric effects of energetic particles nor the presence of the quasi biennial oscillation is necessary to simulate the lower stratospheric response in the observed low latitude ozone concentration. Comparisons are also made between model simulations and observed total column ozone. As in previous studies, the model simulations agree well with observations. For those models which cover the full temporal range 1960–2005, the ozone solar signal below 50 hPa changes substantially from the first two solar cycles to the last two solar cycles. Further investigation suggests that this difference is due to an aliasing between the sea surface temperatures and the solar cycle during the first part of the period. The relationship between these results and the overall structure in the tropical solar ozone response is discussed. Further understanding of solar processes requires improvement in the observations of the vertically varying and column integrated ozone.

Comment:
I could not locate the above paper where it was offered for free (only made a quick attempt to search online). TO DO: See if Gray (or other co-author) posted it on a personal research site such as Leif S. does on his. – Note: Apparently (as of paper’s date of 2008), NO one has evidence, i.e., data/experiments, that proves UV-ozone – climate mechanism. That is: at this point, there are ONLY MODELS, programmed with accurate but inadequate variables (too little known to establish cause-effect).
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B. Source: Gray et al. 2010
Gray, L.J., J. Beer, M. Geller, J.D. Haigh, M. Lockwood, K. Matthes, U. Cubasch, D. Fleitmann, G. Harrison, L. Hood, J. Luterbacher, G.A. Meehl, D. Shindell, B. van Geel, and W. White, 2010: Solar influence on climate. Rev. Geophys., 48, RG4001, doi:10.1029/2009RG000282.
http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2010/2010_Gray_etal_1.pdf
1. Abstract – with my edits — (this paper IS available – I summarize it below, with emphases, the abstract)

Understanding the influence of solar variability on the Earth’s climate requires knowledge of 1) solar variability, 2) solar-terrestrial interactions and the 3) mechanisms determining the response of the Earth’s climate system. We provide a summary of our current understanding in each of these three areas.
1) Observations and mechanisms for the Sun’s variability are described, including solar irradiance variations on both decadal and centennial timescales and their relation to galactic cosmic rays.
2) Corresponding observations of variations of the Earth’s climate on associated timescales are described, including variations in ozone, temperatures, winds, clouds, precipitation and regional modes of variability such as the monsoons and the North Atlantic Oscillation. A discussion of the available solar and climate proxies is provided.
3) Mechanisms proposed to explain these climate observations are described, including the effects of variations in solar irradiance and of charged particles.
4) Finally, the contribution of solar variations to recent observations of global climate change are discussed.

2. Paper (via the above-linked .pdf) Summarized (with my comments)
Introduction
UV – Ozone
1) … UV … has a relatively large 11 year SC variation, as shown in Figure 3 (bottom). Variations of up to 6% are present near 200 nm where oxygen dissociation and ozone production occur and up to 4% in the region 240–320 nm where absorption by stratospheric ozone is prevalent. [Gray, et. al., at 4]
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2)At stratospheric heights Figure 3 shows a variation of ∼6% at UV wavelengths over the SC. This region of the atmosphere has the potential to affect the troposphere immediately below it and hence the surface climate. … The direct effect of irradiance variations is amplified by an important feedback mechanism involving ozone production, which is an additional source of heating… [Haigh, 1994; see also Gray et al., 2009].’ [Id. at 5]
Comment: Questions: 1. What is the evidence that establishes: (1) the nature of; and (2) the significance to climate of the UV-ozone mechanism? 2. What EVIDENCE refutes the hypothesis that UV significantly affects climate?
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3) … we acknowledge the possibility that short‐term processes which occur repeatedly may lead to an integrated longer‐term effect. [Id. at 6]
Comment: Q’s: Any evidence of long-term effect? Any evidence DIS-proving long-term effect?
4) UV — Measurement
Work at present is aimed at improving our knowledge of the short UV wavelengths, which is required for accurate modeling of irradiance absorption in the stratosphere and upper atmosphere (see Figure 3). Improvements made to date suggest that UV irradiance during the Maunder Minimum was lower by as much as a factor of 2 … . However, this work is still in its infancy. The model estimates match observed spectra between 400 and 1300 nm very well but begin to fail below 220 nm… . [Id. at 9]
Comment: Thus, Mario, your measured “perhaps” and I believe there is likely to be – type language above is far more in line with the current state of the science than over-confident assertions that changes in UV almost certainly do NOT affect climate. We just don’t know. Your being curious and open is good and shows scientific integrity.
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5) Ozone – Upper Stratosphere
Ozone is the main gas involved in radiative heating of the stratosphere. Solar‐induced
variations in ozone can therefore directly affect the radiative balance of the stratosphere with indirect effects on circulation. Solar‐induced ozone variations are possible through[:]
(1) … UV spectral solar irradiance, … modifies the ozone [Id. at 12] production rate through photolysis of molecular oxygen, primarily in the middle to upper stratosphere at low latitudes [Haigh, 1994][;]
(2) changes in the precipitation rate of energetic charged particles, which can indirectly modify ozone concentrations through changes in the abundance of trace species that catalytically destroy ozone, primarily at polar latitudes [e.g., Randall et al., 2007][; and
(3)]… transport‐induced changes in ozone … [from] indirect effects on circulation caused by the above two processes. … On the 11 year time scale, the mean irradiance near 200 nm has varied by ∼6%, over the past two solar cycles … [Id. at 13]
In the upper stratosphere where solar UV variations directly affect ozone production rates, a statistically significant response of 2% – 4% is evident. … The density‐weighted height integral of ozone at each latitude gives the “total column” ozone, and a clear decadal oscillation in phase with the 11 year solar cycle is evident in both satellite data … The ozone response in the lower stratosphere is believed to be the main cause of the total column ozone signal because of the high number densities at those levels. [Id.]
Comment: So far, only lower stratosphere shows evidence of significant ozone signal. Q: What evidence is there that this is ultimately propagated to Earth’s climate? And, again, what evidence is there that this is impossible or insignificant v. a v. climate?
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6) General Comment Re: Attributing Causation of Climate
… correlation coefficients, which suggest a link but are not sufficient to indicate any causal mechanism. In addition, there is substantial internal variability in the climate
system,… . [However s]ince the climate system may react in a nonlinear way the response function can be quite different from the forcing function… [Id. at 24]
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7) Re: Models and UV – Ozone Mechanism (hypothesis)
(1) Atmospheric models that include a good representation of the stratosphere, including interactive ozone chemistry, are available, but they do not generally include a fully coupled ocean at present. The prime solar mechanism for influence in these models is therefore the change in stratospheric temperatures and winds due to changes in UV irradiance and ozone production, and the influence on the underlying troposphere and surface climate involves stratosphere‐ troposphere coupling processes. This mechanism is often referred to as the top‐down mechanism … .” [Id. at 24-25]
(2) … latent heat flux anomaly across the air‐sea interface of ∼0.5 W m−2, which was larger than the direct solar radiative forcing by a factor of ∼3 and also explained the correct phase of the response. This therefore represents a different kind of amplification of the 11 year solar cycle and is not associated with changes in trade wind strength or cloud cover since these did not have the correct magnitude or phase. This result implies a role for the top‐down influence of UV irradiance via the stratosphere. White et al. [2003] also noted [however] that time sequences of tropical tropospheric temperatures lead those in the lower stratosphere, which appears to argue against the top‐down influence. They suggest, however, that this should not be interpreted as a tropospheric signal forcing a stratospheric response because the stratospheric temperature response appears to be in radiative balance and hence is in phase with the 11 year solar cycle, while the troposphere responds to anomalous heating and advection which peaks during the period leading up to solar maximum and not at the maximum itself. This is a good example of the difficulties and dangers of interpreting observed signals from different parts of the atmosphere and especially in using their time response to try to infer cause and effect. [Id. at 26]
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8) Stratospheric — Tropospheric UV – Ozone Feedback Mechanism
… by imposing idealized ozone changes taken from simple 2‐D chemistry models … demonstrated that the SC signal extended down into the troposphere, primarily at subtropical latitudes… [Id. at 27] However, they did not reproduce other features, such as the observed poleward and downward propagation of the signal at polar latitudes [Matthes et al., 2003] or the secondary maximum in the equatorial lower stratosphere (20–30 km). There is general consensus that this latter feature results from transport processes [Ed. i.e., horizontal, such as tradewinds, I believe. J.M.] … . More recent improved models … simulat[e] an improved vertical structure of the annual mean ozone signal in the tropics, … However, it is still not clear to which factor (SSTs, time‐varying solar cycle, or inclusion of a QBO) the improvements can be ascribed. … despite these general improvements, there are many details that are not reproduced by models. Further studies, including fully coupled ocean‐troposphere‐stratosphere models with interactive chemistry, will be required to improve the simulated ozone signal and distinguish between
the various influences. [Id. at 27-28]
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9) Stratosphere – Troposphere Coupling Mechanisms
… at equatorial latitudes Salby [HURRAH FOR SALBY — yes, he DESERVES a cheer! :)] and Callaghan [2005] identified an interaction between the stratospheric B‐D circulation and the tropospheric Hadley circulation … but again, this does not provide a chain of causality. [Id. at 29] There are many proposed mechanisms for a downward influence from the lower stratosphere into the troposphere … response in tropical vertical velocity was not uniformly distributed in longitude but was largest over the Indian and West Pacific oceans, … despite having imposed SSTs, suggesting that their tropospheric signal was a response to changes in the stratosphere and not to the bottom-up mechanism of TSI heating of the ocean surface … .
This would be consistent with the results of Salby and Callaghan [2005] (see Figure 25), whose analysis suggested that the stratosphere and troposphere are linked by a large‐scale transfer of mass across the tropopause resulting in a coupling of the B‐D circulation in the stratosphere and the tropical Hadley circulation in the troposphere.

However, as discussed in section 4.2.2, this does not preclude the possibility that there is an additional positive feedback from the oceans so that both top‐down and bottom‐up mechanisms are acting in the real world.

[Id at 30]
Much work is still required to fully characterize the nature of these complicated interactions and hence to verify these mechanisms. …

Although details of the mechanisms involved are still not fully established, it is becoming increasingly clear that the top‐down mechanism whereby UV heating of the stratosphere indirectly influences the troposphere through dynamical coupling is viable and may help to explain observed regional signals in the troposphere. [Id. at 32] Much work is still required to fully characterize the nature of these complicated interactions and hence to verify these mechanisms. [Id. at 32]

Comment:
In a way… this is all just a BIG WASTE OF TIME – EXCEPT…it must be done to refute (even though they have not come even close to meeting the burden of proof which IS theirs) the AGWers. Unless humans are likely (LAUGH-OUT-LOUD) to produce even 10% of the net CO2 or aerosols or what-EVER hypothesis the Envirostalinists would seize upon to control the economies of the world, WHO CARES? We cannot do a THING to alter the course of the climate of the EARTH. Now, of course, to the extent that such research would help us plan aviation or aerospace or outer space ventures or would aid in planning shipping on the oceans or other practical applications, then, more power to all the hardworking, genuine, scientists. And no matter what, of course basic science is always good – but, when public (what is done with private funds is only the business of the owner of those funds) funding is involved, how about focusing on a few more important areas of study? E.g., nuclear power efficiencies or a cure for diabetes or cancer treatment…
10) UV –Ozone Mechanism v. ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation)
UV‐ozone feedback mechanism appears to cause enough heating near the tropical tropopause to significantly affect the tropical hydrologic cycle, with regional impacts on precipitation that are also broadly similar to those related to ENSO changes… . [Id. at 33]
Comment: It may be entirely ENSO which is the controlling forcing. Q: Is the relative strength of ENSO v. UV-solar precipitation forcing known?
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End of Janice’s Summary of Gray, et. al. (and others above)
Well, Mario, if you had the time, you would have done a much more thorough and precise and, likely, more accurate, too, job of presenting the above research into the effect UV fluctuation might have on the climate of the earth.
Disclaimer: This is not Mario’s work — just an unemployed non-tech trying to help out a bit.
Hope that was helpful! #(:))
YOUR fan, Mario (it takes an engineer (smile)),
Janice
P.S. I’m still praying for you and your family, Mr. Eschenbach (AAAAAAA, don’t throw that at me!!!!! lol)
*SPLAT* {he did it anyway… sigh}