The Week That Was: 2014-09-27 (September 27, 2014) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, Executive Vice President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Climate Pep Rally: According to the organizers, the UN Rally in New York to “save the planet” was a success. Others asked what was accomplished. It appears very little. There were no major political agreements; just a number of “feel good” statements. The political leaders of China, which, based on latest estimates, emits about twice the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) than the US, did not attend; nor, the leaders of India, Germany, Russia, Canada, and Australia. President Obama made a speech proclaiming the dangers of global warming/climate change. Of course, the globe has not been warming for over 15 years and the atmosphere has not warmed for over a decade.
Secretary of State John Kerry declared that climate change is as an urgent a problem as the terrorist group ISIS and the disease Ebola. The issue of urgency is questionable. Both the terrorist group and the disease are killing people now. Global warming/climate change from human emissions of CO2 may kill people sometime in the future, based on highly questionable computer models that have no demonstrated predictive capability. Mr. Kerry ignores this detail.
The Administration took the dubious tact that fighting climate change, though we do not understand the cause, can be economically beneficial. The experiences in Germany, Italy, Spain, England, California, and elsewhere indicate that the benefit is largely illusionary. Green jobs are not materializing in industrialize countries as the politicians claimed they would. Solar and wind power are driving up the costs of electricity, forcing established electricity-intensive industries to consider locating elsewhere.
Even the number of marchers is in dispute. The organizers of the march estimated that there were at least 300,000 participants. A group that counts crowds at demonstrations placed the number closer to 125,000. The methodology the group used appears to be as solid as any presented. This group praised the march.
One characteristic seemed to dominate – the appeal for an authoritarian government to replace the messy democracies that cannot make a decision to “fight climate change.” Yet, it is precisely messy western democracies which are leading the effort. Russia and China, which are more authoritarian, did not attend.
TWTW reader Norm Kalmanovitch sent a photo of one poster, which illustrates the thinking of some of those participating in the march.
Stop King C.O.N.G; No Coal, Oil, Nuclear, Gas, — Don’t Nuke the Climate.
To such people, affordable, reliable electricity is not the path to a better future. See Article # 2 and links under Climate Pep Rally and Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
###################################################
Quote of the Week: If you thought that science was certain – well, that is just an error on your part. Richard Feynman
###################################################
Number of the Week: 1.6 million bbl./d
###################################################
Special Day: September 27, 2014 was S. Fred Singer’s 90th birthday. Fred is the founding President and now Chairman of the Science and Environmental Policy Project
###################################################
Lewis and Curry: Nicolas Lewis and Judith Curry have been critics of the procedures used by the UN Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The critical measurement is the climate sensitivity, the increase in global temperatures from a doubling of CO2, Using data from the IPCC Lewis and Curry found the climate sensitivity to be at the low end of what was reported by the IPCC.
This paper is one of several new papers with similar findings. Patrick Michaels and Chip Knappenberger produced a useful graph of twenty studies with climate sensitivity estimates lower than the high end of the IPCC findings.
These studies bring into question the body of work that use high end projections from climate models to claim significant species extinction and significant sea level rise (beyond 7 inches by the end of the century ) Such work should be considered as speculation, at best.
As with the IPCC work, none of the recent work can be considered definitive. There is still far too much uncertainty, particularly the values of the aerosols – tiny droplets in the atmosphere. The models used by the IPCC calculate that the net effect of the aerosols and cloud adjustments to aerosols is a strong cooling. Yet, this remains to be independently, empirically demonstrated. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf, page 14
***************
Unsettled Climate: On her web site, Curry has an additional discussion on uncertainty that deserves repeating:
At the heart of the recent scientific debate on climate change is the ‘pause’ or ‘hiatus’ in global warming – the period since 1998 during which global average surface temperatures have not increased. This observed warming hiatus contrasts with the expectation from the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report that warming would proceed at a rate of 0.2ºC/per decade in the early decades of the 21st century. The warming hiatus raises serious questions as to whether the climate model projections of 21st century have much utility for decision making, given uncertainties in climate sensitivity to carbon dioxide, future volcanic eruptions and solar activity, and the multidecadal and century scale oscillations in ocean circulation patterns. [Boldface added]
It is becoming clear to many involved in climate science that the prediction in the Fourth Assessment Report of a warming of 0.2ºC/per decade in the early decades of the 21st century ia wrong. Now, some in the climate establishment have produced over 50 explanations why the predicted warming is not occurring. None of these explanations are satisfactory. Nature is demonstrating that the claims of certainty by the climate establishment are wrong. See links under Seeking a Common Ground.
***************
More Koonin: The article by Physicist Steve Koonin “Climate Science Is Not Settled”, which appeared in the Wall Street Journal on September 19 is getting some traction.
The crucial scientific question for policy isn’t whether the climate is changing. That is a settled matter: The climate has always changed and always will. Geological and historical records show the occurrence of major climate shifts, sometimes over only a few decades. We know, for instance, that during the 20th century the Earth’s global average surface temperature rose 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit.
Rather, the crucial, unsettled scientific question for policy is, “How will the climate change over the next century under both natural and human influences?” Answers to that question at the global and regional levels, as well as to equally complex questions of how ecosystems and human activities will be affected, should inform our choices about energy and infrastructure.
In the article, Mr. Koonin points out that in its summaries for policymakers, the IPCC fails to inform public officials of the extent and the implications of the serious deficiencies in its science. Additional discussions are appearing, including one in Physics Today. The failure of important scientific organizations and publications to address these deficiencies has resulted in a science that has not advanced the crucial metric of climate sensitivity for 35 years, in spite of the US government having expenditures exceeding $165 billion climate science and policy since 1993. See links under Questioning the Orthodoxy and the September 20 TWTW.
***************
Climate Policy: In a talk to the Global Business Forum, Ross McKitrick assessed the prospects of a binding, effective global climate treaty, the dream of the UN in which it could collect moneys from the western developed countries. McKitrick makes three major points:
First, the economics of climate policy remain as impossible as ever. Climatologically-relevant actions are politically infeasible, while feasible policies are climatologically irrelevant.
Second, the climate science community exaggerated its level of certainty about the effects of greenhouse gases, and it now faces a loss of credibility as the doomsday predictions conspicuously fail.
Third, the high-water mark of popular support for climate action was before the 2008 financial crisis, and those days are not coming back.
See link under Questioning the Orthodoxy.
***************
Salmon: In discussing proposed policies that ignored cycles in West Coast salmon fishing, Tim Ball brings up the dogmatic, destructive attitudes that mark the green organizations. See link under Environmental Industry.
***************
Florida: Many New Yorkers enjoy spending part of the winter in Florida. Perhaps that is why an article in the New York Times chose Florida as an example of the dangers of sea level rise. A poor choice.
Among the US states, Florida gives some of the best physical evidence of the lack of a strong relationship between atmospheric carbon dioxide and sea levels. Although there may be local variations, the state is relatively stable, tectonically. Off the coast, skeletons of shallow water corals are found to hundreds of feet below sea level – to depths over 400 feet. They were formed during the last ice age when the land area of the state was about 3 times larger than it is today. (The Everglades were formed with increased precipitation and the rising seas, about 4,000 to 6,000 years ago.)
Yet, there are significant limestone quarries (from corals) above sea level. Some of these limestone beds were formed as recently as 125,000 years ago. The state has been subject to significant changes in sea levels without human CO2 emissions. Spring tides (full moon tides) have been a problem since development of the coast line started many years ago, and have nothing to do with CO2 emissions. It is doubtful if governments can do anything to stop these changes. See link under Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up and http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/uw208
***************
Production Tax Credit: Some commentators believe that Congress will not pass an extension to the wind power production tax credit, which expired last year but is still around to the end of 2014. It is too early for such predictions, because there is a massive amount of government money at stake, with little accountability. In fiscal year 2013, the last year for which actual expenditures are available, not budgeted expenditures, green tax subsidies amounted to more than $13 Billion — Energy Tax Provisions That May Reduce Greenhouse Gases were $4.999 billion, and Energy Payments in Lieu of Tax Provisions were $8.080 billion.
Even if the Democrats lose control of the Senate, it is possible that a funding bill with very strange provisions can pass during a lame duck session between the election and the convening of the 114th Congress on January 3, 2015. See links under Subsidies and Mandates Forever and http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/assets/legislative_reports/fcce-report-to-congress.pdf
***************
Number of the Week: 1.6 million barrels per day (bbl./d) According to reports, 1.6 million bbl./d is the estimated amount of crude oil moving by rail in the US from oil fields to refineries. This is about 20 % of the daily crude oil production.
Part of the reason, but not the entire reason, for an enormous growth in rail shipments is the opposition of Washington to building pipelines, particularly the Keystone XL that required Washington’s approval to cross national boundaries. Pipelines are a safer and less costly way to move crude oil than rail. See Articles # 3 and #5.
###################################################
ARTICLES:
For the numbered articles below, please see this week’s TWTW at: www.sepp.org. The articles are at the end of the pdf.
1. Does Business Risk Facing a ‘Climate Crash’?
By S. Fred Singer, American Thinker, Sep 26, 2014
http://americanthinker.com/2014/09/does_business_risk_facing_a_climate_crash.html
2. Making Headway Against Climate Change
Progress at the U.N. summit included big steps for carbon pricing.
By Ban Ki-Moon, WSJ, Sep 25, 2014
http://online.wsj.com/articles/ban-ki-moon-making-headway-against-climate-change-1411688616
3. Alaska’s Lessons for the Keystone XL Pipeline
Environmentalists say the new pipeline will be a disaster. We lived through these scare tactics before.
By Mr. Moore and Mr Griffith, WSJ, Sep 24, 2014
4. Germany’s Coal Binge
Green energy mandates have achieved the opposite of their intent.
Editorial, WSJ, Sep 25, 2014
http://online.wsj.com/articles/germanys-coal-binge-1411599265
5. Dangers Aside, Railways Reshape Crude Market
Shipping Crude by Rail Expands as New Pipelines Hit Headwinds and Train Companies Reap Revenue
By Russell Gold and Chester Dawson, WSJ, Sep 21, 2014
http://online.wsj.com/articles/dangers-aside-railways-reshape-crude-market-1411353150
Today, 1.6 million barrels of oil a day are riding the rails,
###################################################
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Climategate Continued
Black Tuesday of Climate Science
By Jean S, Climate Audit, Sep 22, 2014
http://climateaudit.org/2014/09/22/black-tuesday-of-climate-science/
“Mike’s trick” to hide the decline — still shocking
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 25, 2014
http://joannenova.com.au/2014/09/manns-trick-to-hide-the-decline-still-shocking/
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Lewis and Curry: Climate sensitivity uncertainty
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Sep 24, 2014
http://judithcurry.com/2014/09/24/lewis-and-curry-climate-sensitivity-uncertainty/
Link to paper: The implications for climate sensitivity of AR5 forcing and heat uptake estimates
By Nicholas Lewis & Judith A. Curry, Climate Dynamics, Sep 25, 2014
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-014-2342-y
Getting lower
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Sep 24, 2014
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2014/9/24/getting-lower.html
New Research Finds Earth Even Less Sensitive To CO2 Than Previously Thought
By Staff Writers, GWPF, Sep 25, 2014
http://www.thegwpf.com/new-research-finds-earth-even-less-sensitive-to-co2-than-previously-thought/
The Collection of Evidence for a Low Climate Sensitivity Continues to Grow
By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger, CATO, Sep 25, 2014
http://www.cato.org/blog/collection-evidence-low-climate-sensitivity-continues-grow
Mr. President, CO2 is not Pollution, it’s the Elixir of Life
By Craig Idso, Townhall, Sep 23, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
The Global Warming Money Nexus Corrupts Real Climate Research
By Patrick Michaels, IBD, Sep 25, 2014
It’s time to stop the climate scare stories
By Willie Soon and Christopher Monckton, WUWT, Sep 23, 2014
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/23/its-time-to-stop-the-climate-scare-stories/
Defending the Orthodoxy
China, US, India push world carbon emissions up
World carbon pollution up by nearly 800 million tons in 2013, mostly from China, US, India
By Seth Borenstein, AP, Sep 21, 2014
http://news.yahoo.com/china-us-india-push-world-carbon-emissions-170301040–finance.html
[SEPP Comment: Still no warming trend.]
Selfishness for All?
By Simon Zadek, Project Syndicate, Sep 24, 2014
While few doubt that renewable energy eventually will be cheaper than fossil fuels, climate change is advancing too quickly simply to wait for the market to solve the problem
[SEPP Comment: The Co-Director of the UN-Environmental Program’s “Inquiry into the Design of a Sustainable Financial System” would find SEPP a doubter. It strongly questions the rigor of the reports cited, especially Risky Business. Further, the cost of the electricity by source must include the costs of unpredictable failure.]
Climate Pep Rally
India, China ignore UN climate change summit
By Chetan Chauhan, Hindustan Times, Sep 23, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
Administration pitches economic benefits of fighting climate change
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Sep 25, 2014
Obama to UN: Climate Change Our Fault
By Ben Shapiro, Breitbart, Sep 23, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/09/23/Obama-climate-change
Obama Lies, Punts at Climate Change Summit,
By John Hinderaker, Power Line, Sep 24, 2014
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2014/09/obama-punts-at-climate-change-summit.php
All the significant announcements from the UN climate summit, and whether they’re new
By Mat Hope, Simon Evans & Christian Hunt, The Carbon Biref, Sep 24, 2014
Once More on Counting Crowds at Demos
By Staff Writer, Fire on the Mountain, Sep 21, 2014
http://www.firemtn.blogspot.ca/2014/09/once-more-on-counting-crowds-at-demos.html?m=1
Instead of Protesting, Climate Marchers Should Read This
By Nicolas Loris, Daily Signal, Sep 22, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://dailysignal.com/2014/09/22/instead-protesting-climate-marchers-read/
New York, it’s time to sound the climate change alarm
Sunday will bring noise pollution the city should welcome
By Bill McKibben, New York Daily News, Sep 20, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/bill-mckibben-time-sound-alarm-article-1.1946071
Our political leaders are terrified of the fossil fuel industry’s money. We’ll never match that money, but we need them to be just as wary of our numbers and our passion.
[SEPP Comment: The climate establishment and the environmental industry are fearful of losing money generated by the false fear of global warming.]
Countries pledge actions to fight climate change
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Sep 23, 2014
http://thehill.com/policy/defense/218636-countries-pledge-actions-to-fight-climate-change
Climate apocalypse march Sunday draws true believers
By Anthony J. Sadar, American Thinker, Sep 22, 2014
Burning Down the House
By Donald Kaberuka, Project Syndicate, Sep 22, 2014
[SEPP Comment: Special pleading for $100 billion per year.]
The Crumbling Climate-Change Consensus
Extremists’ rhetoric heats up as their case falls apart.
By John Fund, National Review Online, Sep 21, 2014
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/388535/crumbling-climate-change-consensus-john-fund
Blathering Eco-Intellectuals
By Alan Caruba, Warning Signs, Sep 22, 2014
http://factsnotfantasy.blogspot.com/2014/09/blathering-eco-intellectuals.html
Climate Change March Out Of Step With Facts
Editorial, IBD, Sep 22, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Climate Marchers, Unite!
By Paul Kengor, American Thinker, Sep 24, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://www.americanthinker.com/2014/09/climate_marchers_unite_.html
Private sector steps up at climate summit
By Zack Colman, Washington Examiner, Sep 24, 2014
The Air Comes Out of the Climate Change Talks
By Rupert Darwall, Real Clear Politics, Sep 24, 2014
The People’s Climate
By Monica Araya and Hans Verolme, Project Syndicate, Sep 26, 2014
The People’s March against common sense
Editorial, Washington Examiner, Sep 24, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Thousands March in New York to End Industrialized Civilization
By Rick Moran, PJ Media, Sep 21, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2014/09/21/thousands-march-in-new-york-to-end-industrialized-civilization/
Why Aren’t They Marching On Beijing?
Editorial, IBD, Sep 22, 2014
Questioning the Orthodoxy
American Physical Society journal Physics Today: “Physicist Steve Koonin impeaches scientists’ climate consensus”
By Staff Writer, The Hockey Schtick, Sep 24, 2014
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/09/american-physical-society-journal.html
Link to article: Physicist Steve Koonin impeaches scientists’ climate consensus
Bu Steven, Corneliussen, Physics Today Wep 2014
http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/magazine/physicstoday/news/10.1063/PT.5.8071
Assessing the Prospects for a Binding, Effective, Global Climate Treaty,
By Ross McKitrick, to 2014 Global Business Forum, Sep 18, 2014
http://www.rossmckitrick.com/uploads/4/8/0/8/4808045/gbf_talk.pdf
Forget ISIS — White House Declares War on CO2
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Sep 22, 2014
http://www.newsmax.com/LarryBell/ISIS-White-House-CO2/2014/09/22/id/596075/
Journalists still pushing the “polar bears eat snow geese story,” as if it matters
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Sep 23, 2014
Who Signed the Climate Declaration?
By Donna Laframboise, NFC, Sep 22, 2014
http://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2014/09/22/who-signed-the-climate-declaration/
Will Climate Week Ever End?
By Steen Hayward, Power Line, Sep 25, 2014
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2014/09/will-climate-week-ever-end.php
Russian National Television Film Warns Of Cooling…Senior Woods Hole Scientist Calls Arctic Model Runs “Far From Ideal”!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 26, 2014
Spiegel Writes Cook’s 97% Consensus Claims “Are Deceiving The Public”…”A Failed Call To Action”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 23, 2014
‘People who want to argue that climate researchers are secretive and incompetent,’ says Tol polemically, ‘only have to point to the 97% consensus paper’.”
Should We Credit Global Warming When Disasters Don’t Happen?
By Paul Knappenberger, CATO, Sep 19, 2014
http://www.cato.org/blog/should-we-credit-global-warming-when-disasters-dont-happen
Social Benefits of Carbon
Global change: Trees continue to grow at a faster rate
By Staff Writers, Munich, Germany, (SPX) Sep 22, 2014
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Global_change_Trees_continue_to_grow_at_a_faster_rate_999.html
[SEPP Comment: Assumes warming is the primary factor, CO2 enhancement is secondary.]
Water Use Efficiency of Agricultural Species
By Staff Writers, CO2 Science & SPPI, Sep 17, 2014
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/water_use_efficiency.pdf
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Bjorn Lomborg: Global warming is hardly the world’s biggest problem
By Bjorn Lomborg, National Post, Sep 23, 214
With the outreach program The World We Want, the UN already has asked what the rest of us think. More than 4-million people from every nation say the top priorities are better education and health care, less corruption, more jobs and affordable food. At the very last place, as priority number 17, comes global warming.
Yet, the UN Climate Panel finds the total cost of climate change by the 2070s is less than 2% of GDP. This means global warming is a problem, but it is not by any means the end of the world. Its cost is equivalent to a single year of recession over the next 60 years.
Emissions From India Will Increase, Official Says
By Coral Davenport, NYT, Sep 24, 2014
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/25/world/asia/25climate.html
[SEPP Comment: Blaming the developed countries for 20th century warming. If correct, it took the world out of the Little Ice Age. The accusation should is a fitting trap for the alarmists.]
Mr. Obama’s hot flash on global warming
He’s having trouble persuading the Third World to love their poverty
Editorial, Washington Times, Sep 22, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/sep/22/editorial-mr-obamas-hot-flash/
Europe’s carbon cuts should be subject to Paris climate deal – EU energy chief
Proposed 40% cut by 2030 should be reconsidered if governments fail to agree on a binding deal, says Gunther Oettinger
By Arthur Nelsen, Guardian, UK, Sep 25, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
What Did China Have to Offer at UN Climate Summit 2014?
The UN Climate Summit shows little has changed in China’s thinking on climate change.
By Shannon Tiezzi, The Diplomat, Sep 24, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
http://thediplomat.com/2014/09/what-did-china-have-to-offer-at-un-climate-summit-2014/
Why climate change policy won’t hinge on international talks
By Michael Levi, Fortune Magazine, Sep 25, 2014 [H/t Climate Etc.]
Seeking a Common Ground
An unsettled climate
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Sep 21, 2014
http://judithcurry.com/2014/09/21/an-unsettled-climate/#more-16947
Are we sovereign?
By Clark A. Miller, The Hill, Sep 23, 2014
http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/energy-environment/218555-are-we-sovereign
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
Dying from Heat and Cold in Australia
Bennett, C.M., Dear, K.B.G. and McMichael, A.J. 2014. Shifts in the seasonal distribution of deaths in Australia, 1968-2007. International Journal of Biometeorology 58: 835-8428.
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V17/N39/EDIT.php
[SEPP Comment: Increase in daily minimum temperatures indicates that global warming/climate change will reduce mortality rates.]
Modeling Daily Intense Rainfall Events over Africa
Cretat, J., Vizy, E.K. and Cook, K.H. 2014. How well are daily intense rainfall events captured by current climate models over Africa? Climate Dynamics 42: 2691-2711.
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V17/N39/C1.php
“State-of-the-art climate models still cannot realistically simulate daily intense rainfall events with high accuracy.”
The Woody Vegetation Cover of Northern Ethiopian Highlands
Nyssen, J., Frankl, A., Haile, M., Hurni, H.,Descheemaeker, K., Crummey, D., Ritler, A., Portner, B., Nievergelt, B., Moeyersons, J., Munro, N., Deckers, J., Billi, P. and Poesen, J. 2014. Environmental conditions and human drivers for changes to north Ethiopian mountain landscapes over 145 years. Science of the Total Environment 485-486: 164-179.
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V17/N39/B1.php
Assessing Future Rice Yields in China
Yu, Y., Zhang, W. and Huang, Y. 2014. Impact assessment of climate change, carbon dioxide fertilization and constant growing season on rice yields in China. Climatic Change 124: 763-775.
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V17/N39/B3.php
In light of these several findings, it is clear that the future of rice cultivation in China looks bright indeed.
Model Issues
Debunking the New York Times’ faith in climate models
By Staff Writer, The Hockey Schtick, Sep 23, 2014
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/09/debunking-new-york-times-faith-in.html
Measurement Issues
New paper finds global temperature data trend prior to 1950’s “meaningless” & “artificially flattened”
By Staff Writer, Hockey Schtick, Sep 25, 2014
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/09/new-paper-finds-global-temperature-data.html
Link to correspondence: Spatiotemporal patterns of warming
By Macias-Fauria, et al. Nature Climate Change, Sep 25, 2014
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n10/full/nclimate2372.html
Was August Really The Warmest Month Ever?
By Joseph D’Aleo, ICECAP, Sep 24, 2014
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/icing-the-hype/was_august_really_the_warmest_month_ever1/
NOAA Devolving To An Orwellian Political Farce…Veteran Meteorologist: “Fox Is Guarding The Henhouse”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 21, 2014
The hotter nights in Melbourne and some mysterious adjustments
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 26, 2014
http://joannenova.com.au/2014/09/the-hotter-nights-in-melbourne-and-some-mysterious-adjustments/
Changing Weather
New paper finds low-CO2 US drought in 1934 was the most extreme of past Millennium
By Staff Writer, The Hockey Schtick, Sep 23, 2014
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/09/new-paper-finds-low-co2-us-drought-in.html
Colorado wildfires NOT MORE SEVERE since 1800s, says ‘massive’ UColorado study
By Staff Writers, Junk Science, Sep 24, 2014
Changing Seas
Surprising PNAS paper: CO2 emissions not the cause of U.S. West Coast warming
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 22, 2014
Link to paper: Atmospheric controls on northeast Pacific temperature variability and change, 1900–2012
By James A. Johnstone and Nathan J. Mantuaa, PNAS, Sep 22, 2014
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/09/16/1318371111.abstract
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Arctic Ice Continues Recovery – So Death Spiral Claims Are Rehashed
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 23, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
Claim: Arctic sea ice helps remove CO2 from the atmosphere
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 22, 2014
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/22/claim-arctic-sea-ice-helps-remove-co2-from-the-atmosphere/
Changing Earth
First eyewitness accounts of mystery volcanic eruption
By Staff Writers, Bristol, UK (SPX), Sep 22, 2014
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/First_eyewitness_accounts_of_mystery_volcanic_eruption_999.html
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
The vital roles of farming and science
By Martin Livermore, Scientific Alliance, Sep 26, 2014
http://scientific-alliance.org/scientific-alliance-newsletter/vital-roles-farming-and-science
[SEPP Comment: Not impressed by the cited paper on rapid 21st century population growth due to the paper’s questionable calculations of probabilities. However, the issue of land for food vs. fuel is crucial.]
Un-Science or Non-Science?
Two contrasting views of multidecadal climate variability in the 20th century†
By Kravtsov, Wyatt, Curry and Tsonis, Geophysical Research Letters,
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL061416/abstract
[SEPP Comment: Disagree with the statement: The bulk of our knowledge about causes of 20th century climate change comes from simulations using numerical models. The term knowledge is inappropriately used. It is more fitting to say: The bulk of our ideas (or speculation) about causes …]
Lowering Standards
The Royal and the Arctic
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Sep 22, 2014
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2014/9/22/the-royal-and-the-arctic.html
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Climate Change You Can Believe In
By Bill Moyers and Michael Winship, Moyers Blog, Sep 18, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://billmoyers.com/2014/09/18/climate-change-you-can-believe-in/
Terrible flooding in India and Pakistan, the worst in more than a century, with heavy monsoon rains, 500 lives lost and hundreds of thousands left stranded
[SEPP Comment: India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan have been subject to numerous floods over the 19th and 20th centuries.]
TV dwells on disaster in covering climate science: study
By Alister Doyle, Reuters, Sep 23, 2014 [H/t Clyde Spence]
[SEPP Comment: Who would watch if newscasts on global warming focused on the main influence of increased atmospheric CO2 – plants growing bigger and producing more food?]
Climate Change at Ground Zero
By Issa Martin Bikienga, Project Syndicate, Sep 26, 2014
Drought and flooding here and elsewhere occur largely because of climate imbalances caused by industrial activities that produce greenhouse gases.
[SEPP Comment: When has there ever been a climate in balance?]
CO2 emissions set to reach new 40 billion ton record high in 2014
By Staff Writer, Phys.org, Sep 21, 2014
http://phys.org/news/2014-09-co2-emissions-billion-ton-high.html
Link to paper, Global Carbon Budget
By Staff Writers, Global Carbon Project, Sep 21, 2014
http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/
[SEPP Comment: Fails to provide evidence that CO2 is significant in causing global warming.]
Lew: Climate change hits all sectors of economy
By Laura Barron-Lopez, The Hill, Sep 22, 2014
[SEPP Comment: The Secretary of Treasury adds his two cents of reason: Climate change is one of the most important challenges of the time and what the US and other countries do to address climate will determine the nation’s future.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
The ozone hole was exaggerated as a problem
Serial hyperbole does the environmental movement no favours
By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, Sep 25, 2014
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/the-ozone-hole-was-exaggerated-as-a-problem.aspx
Florida Goes Down the Drain
By Gail Collins, NYT, Sep 24, 2014
Kerry: Climate change as urgent as ISIS, Ebola
By Laura Barron-Lopez, The Hill, Sep 22, 2014
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/218480-kerry-climate-change-as-urgent-at-isil-ebola
Expanding the Orthodoxy
FACT SHEET: President Obama Announces New Actions To Strengthen Global Resilience To Climate Change And Launches Partnerships To Cut Carbon Pollution
By Staff Writers, The White House, Sep 23, 2014
The Climate Action Plan is working. In 2012, U.S. greenhouse gas emissions fell to the lowest level in nearly two decades.
[SEPP Comment: US emissions fell thanks to increased natural gas production and lower prices, which received no support from the Administration.]
US Homeland Security moves to tackle climate change risks
By Lisa Anderson, Reuters, Sep 25, 2014 [H/t SPPI]
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/25/us-foundation-climate-security-idUSKCN0HK2PW20140925
[SEPP Comment: Exaggerating the threat of sea level rise– a 2.5 foot increases in 35 years!]
Questioning European Green
Belgian brownout, German emergency, British plan
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Sep 15, 2014
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2014/9/25/belgian-brownout-german-emergency-british-plan.html
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Clean Energy’s Dirty Secrets
By Rupert Darwall, National Review, Sep 23, 2014 [H/t Deke Forbes]
http://m.nationalreview.com/energy-week/388619/clean-energys-dirty-secrets-rupert-darwall
China “Bans” Low-Quality Coal
Too Green to be True
By Walter Russell Mad & Staff, American Interest, Sep 19, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.the-american-interest.com/blog/2014/09/19/china-bans-low-quality-coal/
Green Jobs
Where Did All The Green Jobs Go?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 21, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/09/21/where-did-all-the-green-jobs-go/
Non-Green Jobs
Will America take advantage of its natural gas opportunity?
By Karen Alderman Harbert, Washington Examiner, Sep 22, 2014
Funding Issues
DOT unveils $3.6B to make transit systems climate resilient
By Laura Barron-Lopez, The Hill, Sep 22, 2014
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Ditching coal a massive step to climate goal: experts
By Staff Writers, Paris (AFP), Sept 22, 2014
http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/Ditching_coal_a_massive_step_to_climate_goal_experts_999.html
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Saying goodbye to the Wind PTC/ITC
By Lisa Linowes, Wind Action, Sep 23, 2014
http://www.windaction.org/posts/41283-saying-goodbye-to-the-wind-ptc-itc#.VCQWsfldV8E
EPA and other Regulators on the March
Climate change and aviation
By Billy Pizer, The Hill, Sep 26, 2014
http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/energy-environment/218976-climate-change-and-aviation
EPA targets dental fillings
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Sep 25, 2014
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/218917-epa-targets-dental-fillings
Phony ‘environmental justice’ at EPA
The agency’s programs will wreak injustice on poor and minority families
By Paul Driessen, Washington Times, Sep 23, 2014
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/sep/23/driessen-phony-environmental-justice-at-epa/
Energy Issues – Non-US
Study: Fracked shale gas impacts have positive and negative benefits, but there’s no reason not to make it part of the energy mix
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 22, 2014
“If shale gas is extracted under tight regulations and is reasonably cheap, there is no obvious reason, as yet, why it should not make some contribution to our energy mix. However, regulation should also ensure that investment in sustainable technologies is not reduced at the expense of shale gas.”
[SEPP Comment: For modern civilization, what is sustainable about unreliable wind and solar?]
New research suggests China’s CO2 output is almost twice U.S.’s
By Thor Benson, Washington DC (UPI), Sep 21, 2014
Austria to challenge ‘scandalous’ British nuclear deal
By Staff Writers, Vienna (AFP), Sept 24, 2014
EIKE: German Power Grid More Vulnerable Than Ever…”On The Brink Of Widespread Blackouts”!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 24, 2014
Energy Issues — US
Obama’s energy policy is not science — it’s an ideological crusade
By Mitch McConnell, Washington Examiner, Sep 22, 2014
Another Look At Hydrogen
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Sep 23, 2014
http://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2014/09/23/another-look-at-hydrogen/
New Cost Analysis Shows Unsubsidized Renewables Increasingly Rival Fossil Fuels
Levelized costs don’t tell the whole story about competitiveness. But they provide a helpful guide for where clean energy is headed.
By Stephen Lacy, Green Tech Media, Sep 22, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
[SEPP Comment: The cost of power disruption from unreliable electricity generation by solar and wind is not calculated.]
Oil prices would hit $150/barrel without U.S. shale, EIA says
By Ernest Scheyder, Reuters, Sep 24, 2014
https://en-maktoob.news.yahoo.com/oil-prices-hit-150-barrel-without-u-shale-175838536–business.html
What Drives Anti-Fracking Zealots?
By Paul Driessen, Townhall, Sep 21, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://townhall.com/columnists/pauldriessen/2014/09/21/what-drives-antifracking-zealots-n1894512
Washington’s Control of Energy
Energy Drilling Off Atlantic Would Be Economic Boon
By Ellen Weaver and Michael Thompson, IBD, Sep 23, 2014
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
The Science Is Settled: Fracking Is Safe
By Jeffrey Folks, American Thinker, Sep 21, 2014
http://americanthinker.com/2014/09/the_science_is_settled_fracking_is_safe.html
[SEPP Comment: The term Safe may be too strong. No known contamination from properly conducted drilling operations is more accurate.]
Impact of Technology on Oil E & P
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Sep 26, 2014
http://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2014/09/26/impact-of-technology-on-oil-e-p/
[SEPP Comment: The technological advances are stunning.]
Is the Shale Revolution a ‘Ponzi Scheme’ or the End of Peak Oil?
“Ponzi scheme” or the end of Peak Oil?
By Ronald Bailey, Reason, Sep 19, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
http://reason.com/archives/2014/09/19/a-shale-gas-and-oil-bubble
Shale Revolution Deniers Face An Inconvenient Truth
By Mark Perry, IBD, Sep 23, 2014
[SEPP Comment: What the Centre for Research on Globalization called a “Ponzi scheme” is paying major dividends.]
API: Crude oil imports lowest in nearly 20 years
By Daniel J. Graeber, Washington (UPI), Sep 19, 2014
http://www.oilgasdaily.com/reports/API_Crude_oil_imports_lowest_in_nearly_20_years_999.html
[SEPP Comment: Yet the Navy continues to subsidize biofuels in the name of national security.]
Environmentalists Should Back Green Fracking
Editorial, IBD, Sep 25, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Mining for sand for fracking holds risks for communities, study says
By Neela Banerje, LA Times, Sep 25, 2014
http://www.latimes.com/nation/nationnow/la-na-nn-fracking-sand-mining-20140925-story.html
Link to report: Rapidly Expanding Frac Sand Mining Is Hidden Danger of Fracking Boom in U.S.
By Staff Writers, Civil Society Institute, Boston Action Research & Environmental Working Group, Sep 25, 2014
http://216.30.191.148/fracsandmining/
[SEPP Comment: Another questionable issue. However, if the report is accurate, there is no shortage of suitable sand]
Return of King Coal?
Coal must be part of America’s energy future
By Peter Roff, Washington Examiner, Sep 22, 2014
Oil Spills, Gas Leaks & Consequences, Other
Nation’s First Coal Ash Law Takes Effect in North Carolina
By Sonal Patel, Power News, Sep 24, 2014
Nuclear Energy and Fears
The Potential of Thorium for Safer, Cleaner and Cheaper Energy
By Staff Writers, NCPA, Sep 26, 2014
Link to report: The Potential of Thorium for Safer, Cleaner and Cheaper Energy,
By Xinyuan Zou and Joe Barnett, NCPA, Sep 26, 2014
US energy secretary lists priorities at IAEA meeting
By Staff Writer, WNN, Sep 22, 2014
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
FACT SHEET: White House Announces Executive Actions and Commitments from Across the Country to Advance Solar Deployment and Energy Efficiency
Press Release by Staff Writers, The White House, Sep 18, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
[SEPP Comment: Deploying an unreliable and expensive form of electricity generation.]
Power from wind turbines slumps – due to lack of wind
Electricity output from UK wind farms falls by a fifth due to unusually low wind speeds
By Emily Gosden, Telegraph, UK, Sep 25, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
California Dreaming
Massive Wind-CAES Project Proposed to Power Southern California
By Thomas Overton, Power, Sep 24, 2014
Environmental Industry
Green Socialism’s Insidious Misanthropy
By Julia Patrick, Quadrant, Sep 25, 2014
http://quadrant.org.au/magazine/2014/09/insidious-misanthropy-green-socialism/
Salmon, Climate, And Accountability
By Tim Ball, A Different Perspective, Sep 22, 2014
http://drtimball.com/2014/salmon-climate-and-accountability/
Other Scientific News
Japanese Firm Plans Space Elevator to Run by 2050
By Staff Writers, Moscow (RIA Novosti), Sep 23, 2014
http://www.space-travel.com/reports/Japanese_Firm_Plans_Space_Elevator_to_Run_by_2050_999.html
Modern Europeans descended from three groups of ancestors
By Staff Writers, Chevy Chase MD (SPX), Sep 22, 2014
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Modern_Europeans_descended_from_three_groups_of_ancestors_999.html
Termites evolved complex bioreactors 30 million years ago
By Staff Writers, Copenhagen, Denmark (SPX), Sep 25, 2014
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Termites_evolved_complex_bioreactors_30_million_years_ago_999.html
Other News that May Be of Interest
Critical Minerals: Rare Earths and the U.S. Economy
By Staff Writers, NCPA, Sep 26, 2014
Link to report: Critical Minerals: Rare Earths and the U.S. Economy
By Ann Norman, Xinyuan Zou and Joe Barnett, NCPA, Sep 2014
http://www.ncpa.org/pdfs/bg175.pdf
Earth’s water is older than the sun
By Staff Writers, Washington DC (SPX), Sep 26, 2014
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Earths_water_is_older_than_the_sun_999.html
################################################
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
@CNN asks ‘Why worry about ISIS when the danger of Climate Change is so much more clear and imminent? ‘
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 21, 2014
Climate Craziness of the Week: White House fence jumper was “concerned that the atmosphere was collapsing” and wanted to alert the president
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 20, 2014
###################################################
Happy 90th Fred.
Best wishes, Allan
No mention of the on-going volcanic activity.
Now in Japan too. Sadly, many hikers died Saturday.
Bardarbunga still rumbles away. Threatening a horrid smog winter for N. Europe.
And now, High Seismicity around Mammoth Mtn/Mammoth Lakes, in Central CA Sierra Nevadas.
Surely the Global Warmists will begin to claim volcanic aerosols as the reason for the Hiatus, esp. if 1999-2014 turns to a Local max in the record.
Volcanic aerosols is excuse #6 (debunked) on Ant**ny’s List. May have to be “re-debunked”. (Is that a word?).
Again, what are the proposed connections of Earth’s vulcanism outbursts to a diminishing solar cycle helio-magnetic/geo-magnetic interactions? What is the state of that hypothesis?
A group that counts crowds at demonstrations placed the number closer to 125,000. The methodology the group used appears to be as solid as any presented.
They counted the legs and divided by two.
and bears have 4.
According to the BBC, the volcano, Mt. Ontake in Japan is sending just ash and steam into the air. Strange volcano
Fire on the Mountain: Once More on Counting Crowds at Demos: http://firemtn.blogspot.com/2014/09/once-more-on-counting-crowds-at-demos.html
So if 125k is a generous estimate where did 310-400k figure come from?
About the same ratio of exaggeration as is used for climate sensitivity.
http://www.msnbc.com/all-in/watch/all-in-america-coal-country-331408963879
http://www.msnbc.com/all-in-america
All in America: Coal Country
Starting October 6, All In with Chris Hayes goes to Coal Country, examining everything from the politics to the power to the future of the coal industry.