Guest post by Bob Tisdale.
Preliminary Note: An “alarmism warning” indicates alarmism is imminent. On the other hand, an “alarmism watch” indicates alarmism might occur, but that’s all the time.
We’re not just talking a record high for the month of August…we’re talking a record high for any month during the satellite era. I suspect our alarmist friends will be making all sorts of claims about attribution even though climate models still almost double the observed rate of ocean surface warming during the satellite era.
We recently discussed the likely reasons for the record high sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific, and their impacts on global sea surface temperatures. See the post On The Recent Record-High Global Sea Surface Temperatures – The Wheres and Whys. According to the preliminary satellite-enhanced sea surface temperature data for August 2014, the sea surfaces of the North Pacific are still warming. See Figure 1. After almost 2 ½ decades of showing no warming, apparently a blocking high is driving sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific skyward.
Figure 1
Due to the enormity of the North Pacific, and due to the magnitude of its apparent upward shift, sea surface temperatures globally are at record high levels, as shown in Figure 2. And as noted above, the record is not just for the month of August, we’re talking record highs for any month [during the satellite era].
Figure 2
AND NOW BACK TO YOUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED PRELIMINARY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE UPDATE FOR AUGUST 2014
GENERAL NOTES – BOILERPLATE
The August 2014 Reynolds OI.v2 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data through the NOAA NOMADS website won’t be official until Monday, September 8,, 2014. Refer to the schedule on the NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis Frequently Asked Questions webpage. This post includes the preliminary Global and NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies for August 2014 that the NOMADS website prepares based on incomplete data for the month. I’ve also included the weekly data through the week centered on August 27, 2014. The base years for anomalies are 1971-2000, which are the standard base years from the NOAA NOMADS website for this dataset.
PRELIMINARY MONTHLY DATA
The preliminary global sea surface temperature anomalies for August are presently at about +0.40 deg C. See Figure 2 above. Based on the preliminary data, they warmed a good amount (an increase of about +0.065 deg C) since July. With the apparent upward shift in the North Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies last year, and the early El Niño conditions this year, we’re looking at the possibility of record-high global sea surface temperatures for the year 2014. The other factor, of course, is the upward shift in the sea surface temperatures of the South Atlantic-Indian-West Pacific subset in response to the 1997/98 El Niño. See the discussion in this post under the heading of The East Pacific Versus the Rest of the World and the post here.
Another consideration, the sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are warming again, in response to another downwelling (warm) Kelvin wave.
The sea surface temperature anomalies of the NINO3.4 region in the eastern equatorial Pacific (5S-5N, 170W-120W) are a commonly used index for the strength, frequency, and duration of El Niño and La Niña events. See the illustration here for the location of the NINO3.4 region. Based on the preliminary data, August 2014 NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies are now slightly below the +0.5 deg C threshold of an El Niño event. They’re presently at +0.32 deg C. The threshold for El Niño conditions is considered to be warmer than or equal to +0.5 deg C (and for a La Niña, it’s cooler than or equal to -0.5 deg C). So the reading of +0.32 indicates the tropical Pacific in in ENSO-neutral conditions based on the preliminary monthly data. Also refer to the weekly data that follows, because the weekly NINO3.4 data have shown warming again in recent weeks.
Figure 3
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WEEKLY DATA
Weekly NINO3.4 region (5S-5N, 170W-120W) sea surface temperature anomalies for the week centered on August 27, 2014 have recently warmed and they are once again approaching the threshold of El Niño conditions. The weekly NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies are approximately +0.47 deg C.
Figure 4
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The weekly Global sea surface temperature anomalies are now at record high levels. They are presently about +0.45 deg C.
Figure 5
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INTERESTED IN LEARNING MORE ABOUT THE EL NIÑO AND LA NIÑA AND THEIR LONG-TERM EFFECTS ON GLOBAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES?
Why should you be interested? Sea surface temperature records indicate El Niño and La Niña events are responsible for the warming of global sea surface temperature anomalies over the past 30 years, not manmade greenhouse gases. I’ve searched sea surface temperature records for more than 4 years and ocean heat content records for more than 3 years, and I can find no evidence of an anthropogenic greenhouse gas signal in either dataset. That is, the warming of the global oceans has been caused by naturally occurring, sunlight-fueled, coupled ocean-atmosphere processes, not anthropogenic greenhouse gases.
Last year I published an ebook (pdf) about the phenomena called El Niño and La Niña. It’s titled Who Turned on the Heat? with the subtitle The Unsuspected Global Warming Culprit, El Niño Southern Oscillation. It is intended for persons (with or without technical backgrounds) interested in learning about El Niño and La Niña events and in understanding the natural causes of the warming of our global oceans for the past 31+ years. Because land surface air temperatures simply exaggerate the natural warming of the global oceans over annual and multidecadal time periods, the vast majority of the warming taking place on land is natural as well. The book is the product of years of research of the satellite-era sea surface temperature data that’s available to the public via the internet. It presents how the data accounts for its warming—and there are no indications the warming was caused by manmade greenhouse gases. None at all.
Who Turned on the Heat? was introduced in the blog post Everything You Ever Wanted to Know about El Niño and La Niña… …Well Just about Everything. The Free Preview includes the Table of Contents; the Introduction; the beginning of Section 1, with the cartoon-like illustrations; the discussion About the Cover; and the Closing.
Please buy a copy. (Credit/Debit Card through PayPal. You do NOT have to open a PayPal account. Simply scroll down to the “Don’t Have a PayPal Account” purchase option. It’s only US$8.00 marked down to U.S.$5.00.
SOURCE
The Sea Surface Temperature anomaly data used in this post is available through the NOAA NOMADS website:
http://nomad1.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh
On the one hand, it isn’t surprising to see an uptick in SST temps because the PDO recently shifted to positive significantly and because of the arctic minimum (which came again with unusual warm water around the arctic sea ice).
On the other hand, it’s just ridiculous how much the surface measurements (especially from NOAA) diverge from satellite measurements recently. The SST measurements from UAH, for example, isn’t even close to a new record:
http://www.climate4you.com/images/MSU%20UAH%20SST%20GlobalMonthlyTempSince1979%20With37monthRunningAverage.gif
I know that UAH measures the entire lower troposphere, but, to be honest: If the ocean temps were on record high and the temperatures in the middle troposphere were quite far away from any record, it would lead to more storm activity. But due to the recent hurricane/storm activity data contradicting my assumption, I would say that the SST measurements are either incomplete or complete nonsense (because of manipulation for example).
Please note that I am not a scientist (maybe I will be one in a few years) and, even when I know very much about climate and the AGW scammers, it is just my opinion of what the SST data represents.
PeterB in Indianapolis
I am not confusing anything and certainly not the parameters you raise, which if you had followed the whole thread you would have seen I did discuss air temperature.
Record high sea surface temperature is clearly significant and if you were paying any attention you would understand the physics of why that is the case.
James,
I have a degree in Chemistry, and I do understand physics quite well.
I am not sure of your understanding of the physics, however.
Record high sea surface temperature is NOT NECESSARILY significant. First of all, our records of sea surface temperatures are pitifully insignificant on geological time-scales, so we have no earthly idea of whether the current sea surface temperatures are in any way, shape, or form unusual or unnatural at all.
Since we have no real idea of whether current sea surface temperatures are even unusual, there is no way to assign any “significance” to them whatsoever.
Prove to me that over the past 1000 years (or better yet, 10,000 years) we have never had any occurrence of sea surface temperatures as high as the current ones, and then I will perhaps be willing to lend credence to the idea that the current temperatures have some “significance”.
Unfortunately, our records of sea surface temperature only go back about 43 years or so, and so, there is no way, other than hyperbole, to assign any “significance” to what is currently happening.
High pressure means clear skies, which means maximum sunlight. A blocking high which has persisted for over a year in the North Pacific would mean generally clear skies in that region for a very long period of time.
Clearly, one would naturally expect sea SURFACE temperatures in that region to be unusually warm (but they certainly aren’t unnaturally warm!).
Further, the existence of such a region of unusual warmth, especially in an area as large as the “North Pacific” is going to skew the average of all SST data higher, once again, naturally.
This has happened before (mid 1970s) and it will likely happen again in another 40 years or so.
For those of us who had to live through the winters of 1976 through 1980 in (for example) the Milwaukee, Chicago, or Minneapolis areas, we would prefer this DID NOT HAPPEN, because when the North Pacific SST anomaly goes strongly positive (especially in late Summer), the Winter temperature anomalies tend to go STRONGLY NEGATIVE in the “Upper Midwest”.
For example, the HIGH temperature projected for September 15th in Indianapolis is supposed to be 57F (or about 14C). This is WAY below normal for that time of year in the Indianapolis area, and it isn’t supposed to be a 1-day event either, it is supposed to last about 3 days due to a mid-September shot of “Polar Vortex”.
Nature makes adjustments for abnormally warm conditions in certain areas… it makes other areas abnormally cool.
PeterB in Indianapolis
Glad to read you have a degree in chemistry. I have a physics degree.
You are trying to sidetrack the issue by talking about past temperature records, which, agreed are of course less certain.
So lets be more specific. In the past 30 years, reference the data produced by Bob Tisdale in his article, currently global sea surface temperatures are at record levels, are clearly on an upward trend over those 30 years and 2014, according to Mr Tisdale, could well be a record warm year – for that period.
The reason this is significant – within that period of recording – is that the oceans hold vastly more heat energy than the atmosphere and are relatively slow to respond to external forcing compared to the atmosphere – thermal inertia. Water requires much more heat energy to warm it by 1C per unit mass than most other substances including the gases in the atmosphere – specific heat capacity.
So if the oceans are warming it means something is dumping heat energy into them. Not something 10,000 years ago, something now and in the recent past.
That heat dumping can be estimated. It is enormous and the only plausible explanation – unless you have another one of course – is that the increase in GHGs is leading to enhanced radiative forcing from the GHE which is warming the system and that much of increased heat energy is going into the oceans. Its actually no surprise whatsoever.
The interesting bit from a physics angle is the detailed reasons why we are seeing the pause in lower atmosphere temperatures.
But renewed warming of the atmosphere is inevitable if the oceans keep warming.
I hope that explains why it is significant.
One warm region, for one warm month, caused by one stationary High. Sounds like weather to me. What it doesn’t sound like is “global” or “climate”.