Readers may recall that the Grímsvötn volcano caused quite an overwrought mess with air travel in 2011 when it erupted. FergalR writes in WUWT Tips and Notes about the nearby Bárðarbunga volcano becoming seismically active:
A large sub-glacial volcano in Iceland – Bárðarbunga – has been having a huge earthquake swarm for the last 24 hours.
The IMO have just raised the eruption alert level on it.
Source: http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes
From the Icelandic Met Office:
Activity in Bárdarbunga volcano
Seismic activity in Bárðarbunga volcano has increased. A seismic swarm has been ongoing since 03AM this morning, and near continuous earthquakes have been occurring since then. The depths of earthquakes in the present swarm are in the upper crust and their magnitudes are mainly around 1.5; a few earthquakes are of magnitude greater than ML3.
Long-term seismic and GPS data indicate that there is increased unrest in the northwestern region of Vatnajökull glacier, where Bárðarbunga is located:
Over the last seven years seismic activity has been gradually increasing in Bárðarbunga and the fissure swarm north of the volcano. This activity dropped down at the Grímsvötn eruption in May 2011, but soon after, the activity started to gradually increase again and has now reached similar level of activity to that just before the Grímsvötn eruption. Earlier this year, in the middle of May 2014, there was a small swarm of over 200 events and now the present swarm has already generated at least 300 earthquakes.
Since early June 2014, displacements at GPS stations around Vatnajökull (Hamarinn, Grímsfjall, Vonarskarð and Dyngjuháls) show an increased upward movement and away from Bárðarbunga.
Together, these two systems indicate magma movements in Bárðarbunga. Due to increased seismicity IMO has decided to turn volcano Barðarbunga status to yellow. In case of a sub-aerial eruption, an ash plume of potential concerns for aviation will be generated. The updated map is available at the link: http://en.vedur.is/weather/aviation/volcanic-hazards/
At 23:00 on August 16, there is no unequivocal indication that magma has reached the surface.
http://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/nr/2936
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crosspatch says:
August 16, 2014 at 9:47 pm
This particular volcano last erupted in 1794.
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That was at the early stage of the Dalton Minimum., while the 1477 event occurred during the early part of the Sporer Minimum. And here we are close to? or slightly into the next grand minimum. In looking at the JG/U 2K tree ring study, you can see a severe temperature drop right around 1477, and a moderate drop shows at 1794.
I’m thinking one of Spock’s cold fusion devices could shut’er down.
That’s about as realistic a possibility as the simulations from AR5.
correction on the sharp drop during the Sporer. Looking closer the sharp drop is the gm itself around 1450. Temps then rise over a 20+ year period and then there is a moderate drop.
“And here we are close to? or slightly into the next grand minimum. ”
We can’t say with any certainty if we are in a “grand minimum” or not. We will have to wait and see how it plays out. Yes, we have a cycle that is weaker than anything we have seen for a while, but we don’t know how long that condition will hold. It does look like 25 will be weaker than 24 but we have no idea what 26 will be like, yet.
17 Aug 06:48 GMT / UT, Icelandic Met Office :
“The earthquake swarm at Bárðarbunga volcano continues. Several hundred earthquakes have been detected since 03am yesterday morning. Since midnight today, most events cluster in two areas, east of Bárðarbunga and around Kistufell. The strongest events during the night were M3.4 at 02:52am and M3.5 at 06:21am SE of Kistufell.
Written by a specialist at 17 Aug 06:48 GMT”
http://en.vedur.is/#tab=skjalftar
— — —
About the letter “ð” (eth) í the word Bárðarbunga: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eth
(Related is the letter Þ (thorn) in Icelandic words: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thorn_(letter) )
Pronounciation of Bárðarbunga can be heard here: http://www.forvo.com/word/b%C3%A1r%C3%B0arbunga/
Realistically, we should be getting panicky when the seismic swarm occurs around Yellowstone. If Yellowstone does a full monty eruption again, humans are in deep deep trouble. The US will be a very bad place to be.
Of course, man-made CO2 is to blame for the Icelandic swarm and possible eruption. The excuse- warming reduces the ice thickness, allowing the crust to spring up and disrupt things.
There will likely be several more conventional eruptions before a caldera forming eruption occurs at Yellowstone. We’ll have a few hundred years notice. We will likely see several volcanoes of the sort we are used to erupt first.
Tremor might be in sudden decline, not sure yet. But it looks like it might be reducing significantly.
I may have lost something in between, but the icelandic volcano that produced flight disruption in 2010, wasn’t it the Eyjafjallajökull “dont ask me to write that again” Volcano, better know as the E-volcano?
It’s really weird. Since that large EQ, tremor seems to be dropping significantly at many stations, not dropping at all at others.
@goldminor. Oh crap. I hope this doesn’t turn out to be a third example, we have been wondering if we’re in the begining of a Dalton-like Minimum. I’ve been hoping for just a not much worse than usual 30 year cooling cycle.
Just because we have no idea how a solar minimum could nudge volcanic activity in some areas, doesn’t mean no such mechanism exists, anyone got reliable volcanism data to check?
I put Iceland volcano in the search box and got all the hits relating to the 2011 eruption there, plus a lot of tangential threads. Here’s the link to click to what I got:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/?s=iceland+volcano
I learnt how to pronounce Eyjafjallajökull and now I have to start over again?
Its like November at the moment in the UK. 12 Degrees. Cold grey and raining.
If we have a serious European eruption… i dread to think how cold it could get…..
Indeed it was not Grímsvötn, it was Eyjafjallajökull,
You may just call it E16
“ has been having a huge earthquake swarm for the last 24 hours.”
I think its all my fault…… Sorry, –
I ran my Trabant all night last week with the headlight on to try & get my solar panel to power my 6 color plotter & the lights in my yurt, whilst I made some plastic “Ban all use of fossil fuel” signs.
I now see that my resultant CO2 has warmed the planet to a tipping point; all the heat went into the DEEP oceans where its melted the rocks (1 million degrees according to ‘Good God ! Gore’ ).
That means Iceland is no longer fixed & will slip from the top of the globe (where it’s melted the Arctic & drowned all the cuddly polar bears) & head south !!
If we allow it to get to Antarctica it will melt that as well & we’ll all drown. I think the best thing we can do to save the planet (for the children) is use all the nuclear bombs we have & obliterate Iceland before it get up to any more mischief .
As a 97% consensuses of my neighbours think that next time I use the car to power the solar panel I should pipe the exhaust into my yurt to cut my carbon footprint, I will recommend that idea at the next yogurt kitting assembly, that way we can all have less impact on the planet !!
A Green
Correction it was grimsvotn in 2011 but E16 caused more air traffic disruption in 2010.
“Hans Erren says:
August 17, 2014 at 2:09 am”
But that disruption was as a result of computer predictions about ash cloud cover and path which proved to be completely wrong?
Re: Jeo,
Don’t you know climate change causes everything?
New York Times November 2009:
Gaurdian February 2012
“1477 Feb (?) Unknown Confirmed 6 Historical Observations Veidivötn (Veidivatnahraun)”
Great… I’m going fishing there next week for 3 days
Patrick said: “But that disruption was as a result of computer predictions about ash cloud cover and path which proved to be completely wrong?”
Pretty much, yes. Computer models predicted where the cloud would go and due to an unfortunate coincedence the UK’s most capable research aeroplane was not available. As a result smaller aeroplanes were deployed that couldn’t be as thorough nor fly as high, and even they didn’t find the plume where the models suggested it would be. See this:
Research aircraft returns to volcanic ash plume
“The same team flew out to the plume’s expected location on Thursday, but did not find the ash. Although this outcome was negative, this does necessarily mean the ash clouds are not dispersing as the models predict – further investigation is needed. ”
I think they missed out a ‘not’ between does and necessarily despite it being a preposterous claim to make.
Russ Steele says:
August 16, 2014 at 9:21 pm
Reblogged this on The Next Grand Minimum and commented:
This could bring more cooling if it is big eruption with large dust/particle cloud. Stay Tuned.
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The trouble is that if there is cooling and if there is an eruption, this will keep AGW alive. The eruption will be used to explain the cooling, and hence warmist will argue that it masked the upward forcing of CO2 and the temperature rise that would have occured but for the volcano eruption.
Personally, I do not wish to see any eruptions over the next 10 years, so as not to cloud the issue (sorry for the pun).
Lets hope that we may keep volacnos out of the equation, so that we can get a better take on what observational data says about climate sensitivity to CO2. We need the ‘pause’ to continue, or better still for some cooling to occur which canot be explained within existing AGW mantra, to bring cAGW to an end.
Whilst I am firmly convinced that warmer is better, and whilst I would not ordinarily welcome the pain that cooling will bring, I would like to see some cooling; a little pain now may prevent much more pain later.
Reblogged this on Head Space and commented:
Current status: (earthquake swarm) minor activity or eruption warning (3 out of 5)
Such volcanic earthquake swarms indicate magma movement. Whether such movement will be followed by an eruption is anyone’s guess. But be ready for one accompanied by massive flash floods as the eruption melts ice.
Vesuvius is also one to watch as an eruption is overdue and over 5million people live very close. The Italians say they ”have a plan” BUT???
“johnmarshall says:
August 17, 2014 at 3:51 am”
No swarms can be tectonic too as in Wellington, New Zealand for instance.