From PhysicsWorld blog: The cover feature of the August issue of Physics World, which is now out in print and digital formats, looks at the Sun – and in particular, at the consequences here on Earth of a “solar super-storm”. As I point out in the video [below], these violent events can disturb the Earth’s magnetic field – potentially inducing damaging electrical currents in power lines, knocking out satellites and disrupting telecommunications.
One particularly strong solar super-storm occured back in 1859 in what is known as the “Carrington event”, so named after the English astronomer who spotted a solar flare that accompanied it. The world in the mid-19th century was technologically a relatively unsophisticated place and the consequences were pretty benign. But should a storm of similiar strength occur today, the impact could be devastating to our way of life.
The feature has been written by Ashley Dale from the University of Bristol, who last year took part in a gathering of space experts to examine and report on the potential consequences of a solar super-storm here on Earth. I don’t want to cause alarm, but as Dale points out, the Earth is, on average, in the path of Carrington-level events every 150 years – which means we are five years overdue.
Reports:
SolarMAX_Executive summary Adobe Acrobat PDF
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SolarMAX_Final report.pdf Adobe Acrobat PDF
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The Carrington Event was a “double play.” (two events back to back)
Now triple play .. that would be really special.
Earth’s magnetic field recovery time comes into play. Second or third event would be unimpeded or very little magnetic field shielding.
Carla says:
August 2, 2014 at 8:36 pm
The Carrington Event was a “double play.” (two events back to back)
Now triple play .. that would be really special.
Actually not. What is important is the initial rapid change of the magnetic field, not that there is another event a couple of days later.
And over the period of the last century as sunspot cycle increased the likelihood of events occurring during magnetic field recovery.. and there must be some global warming potential in the upper atmosphere just due to that..
Probably better at triggering an earthquake also during recovery periods.
magnetic field recovery times, better ask the Dr. S., after he recovers from his journey.
Magnetic field recovery time can be longer than 72 hours depending on the event(s)?
Carla says:
August 2, 2014 at 8:53 pm
Magnetic field recovery time can be longer than 72 hours depending on the event(s)?
It is not the recovery time that is important [actually the longer, the better], but the initial impact. To be precise: the rate of change of the magnetic field.
See there… geez + ugh… this is just what I need to go along with my (PVSD) Polar Vortex Stress Disorder, now add in (CESD) Carrington Event Stress Disorder…. this century is nothing but stress disorder. Just getting over 9-11 stress disorder… At least (MCSD) Mayan Calendar Stress Disorder was too ridiculous to really stress about… Geeeez, just want to go back to the old mild (GWSD) Global Warming Stress Disorder that I didn’t really believe in.
Leif Svalgaard says:
August 2, 2014 at 8:59 pm
Carla says:
August 2, 2014 at 8:53 pm
Magnetic field recovery time can be longer than 72 hours depending on the event(s)?
It is not the recovery time that is important [actually the longer, the better], but the initial impact. To be precise: the rate of change of the magnetic field
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Rice edu used to have a model at their website depicting one the modern major storms, showing Earth’s magnetic pause, pushed halfway across the planet. The “rate of change” in the magnetic field location in that case was an extreme.. But you are referring to another change, I think.
thank you
good night
Leif Svalgaard says:
August 2, 2014 at 8:41 pm
Is it not also important the suns hemisphere of origin for the event and the flip cycle (meaning the 22 year cycle of changing magnetic field of the sun, north to south and back)?
Leif Svalgaard says:
August 2, 2014 at 7:19 pm
From http://www.tjugofyra7.se/msb/Arkiv/Avdelningar/Nyheter/Svar-solstorm-drabbade-Karlstad-1921/2012-04-20
—
Your link was broken, or at least it did not come up (404 error) – this one works:
http://www.tjugofyra7.se/msb/Arkiv/Avdelningar/Nyheter/Svar-solstorm-drabbade-Karlstad-1921/
Leif,
Thoughts about the new Nano-flairs found in the sounding rocket mission?
…”Several theories have been offered for how the magnetic energy coursing through the corona is converted into the heat that raises the temperature. Different theories make different predictions about what kind of – and what temperature – material might be observable, but few observations have high enough resolution over a large enough area to distinguish between these predictions.
The EUNIS rocket, however, was equipped with a very sensitive version of an instrument called a spectrograph. …”
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2014-08/nsfc-bey080114.php
I am waiting for the warmies to claim that man-made CO2 increases the risk of a Carrington event.We will have to prepare for the Carrington event by not being reliant on electricity from fossil fuel. Wind power will be claimed by the warmies to be Carrington neutral. Solar power according to the warmies would be enhanced by the Carrington event.
Russ Steele says:
“Reblogged this on Sierra Foothill Commentary and commented:
The Knowledge: How to Rebuild Our World from Scratch is available from Amazon. We have taken precautions, with some metal container for our portable electronic devices.”
Metal containers will work for electronics but it must be grounded.
There are circuit breakers protecting those big transformers which should do the trick.
Seems Large Seismic Events (+M-8.0) are (nearly) shown to be Correlated with Solar Polar Magnetic Field activity.
IMHO, we’ll see the Sun’s primary hand, in terms of “weather”, and “climate”, long and short cycle, as this science step-by-step evolves into the new paradigm.
Best,
David Sharkey (Tiburon)
Canada
Carla says:
August 2, 2014 at 9:19 pm
The “rate of change” in the magnetic field location in that case was an extreme.. But you are referring to another change, I think.
It is not the change of location that is important but the change at the surface of the Earth of the magnetic field per unit of time, i.e. how rapid the field changes. This controal the amount of current induced in power lines and other linear conductors.
Jim Arndt says:
August 2, 2014 at 9:27 pm
Is it not also important the suns hemisphere of origin for the event and the flip cycle (meaning the 22 year cycle of changing magnetic field of the sun, north to south and back)?
No, not really, as each individual CME has an almost random magnetic field orientation.
Jack H Barnes says:
August 2, 2014 at 11:56 pm
Thoughts about the new Nano-flairs found in the sounding rocket mission?
The ‘nanoflare’ idea has been around for many years and is one of the many proposed mechanisms, and does now seem to have found some observational support.
Tiburon says:
August 3, 2014 at 8:50 am
Seems Large Seismic Events (+M-8.0) are (nearly) shown to be Correlated with Solar Polar Magnetic Field activity.
I don’t think this has been established or is even plausible.
Hi Leif, No, as I clearly said (“nearly”), so no, not yet “established” – as you said.
But the null hypothesis is certainly in deep jeopardy, also clearly.
As to it being “plausible”…well…neither was a non-geocentric universe, not all so long ago.
I’m called to mind the words of the Bard….
“There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio,
Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.”
Paul Singer, founder of hedge fund Elliot Management, warned in a private letter to investors that “the greatest danger facing the world is a freak solar electromagnetic pulse which would have a far more devastating effect than nuclear war, by laying waste to the electrical grid.”
Perhaps a tad OTT. He did not mention any investment trends linked to his concerns.
Tiburon says:
August 3, 2014 at 9:34 am
I’m called to mind the words of the Bard….
The Bard had no idea about the science involved, so his words can hardly carry any weight.
And the ‘null-hypothesis’ is not in any jeopardy.
Warning: Might be some sarcasm here.
The single greatest danger we face from a Carrington event is the prolonged loss of Twitter and Facebook. Suddenly, without recourse, millions of people will realize they have been leading meaningless tweet-centric, Facebook-contrived sound bite lives with faux popularity and having no outlet to share that epiphany there will be a global societal collapse. To compound the tragedy the police don’t care!!! http://www.wfsb.com/story/26174225/police-do-not-call-us-if-facebook-is-down
Millions of people with no skills in face to face human interaction and too much idle time thrust upon them. Think of the mischief. Just maybe this is why the IRS and other non-enforcement agencies have been depleting the public armory by purchasing millions of rounds of ammunition.
Long wires (hundreds of miles) will experience induction currents, everything else not so much.
Magnetic induction depends on the number of wires cutting a magnetic field, either the wires move or the magnetic field moves. If you have many wires in a coil you increase the voltage but not the current, fewer wires will produce more current. How many magnet lines of force are cut depends on its “gradient” or density.
Aircraft transformers operate at 400 Hz and the higher frequency means effective coupling with smaller transformers, also it avoids core saturation.
United States utility power is 60 Hz and consequently requires larger transformers, even for the same power ratings, simply to avoid core saturation.
The “frequency” of a solar flare magnetic field change is probably less than 1 Hz, consequently it would require an enormous transformer to couple any energy from it. That just happens to be long transmission lines. The wavelength of this change is thousands of miles long.
But what it looks like at the ENDS is DC, direct current. That much current will magnetize the core (assuming it doesn’t simply melt) and once magnetized (saturated) it can no longer do the alternating current thing. It becomes effectively a short circuit on both sides. This will pull down the grid on both sides of the transformer.
But there’s another problem. Circuit breakers aren’t designed to break Direct Current. They actually watch for the moment in time when the current changes direction (which it does 120 times a second) and open the switch when current is zero. Trying to open a high voltage switch that happens to be carrying thousands of amps will produce an enormous arc whose magnetism might prevent the switch from opening, to say nothing of just failing to open once the arc has ionized the air (big circuit breakers often operate in oil to prevent this problem or use compressed air to blow out the arc).
What that means for your household electronics is that while they might conceivably notice the change in magnetism, it will be gradual and uniform and thus it won’t “couple” into your household electronics whose wires are mere inches or millimeters long. Both ends of the short wire will have essentially exactly the same response, close to zero but more importantly there would be no differential. A typical integrated circuit has gate protection diodes for ESD (electro-static discharge).
The wavelength of the electromagnetic energy would also have to be just inches or millimeters (ie, your microwave oven) in order for your device to absorb the energy. That’s why higher frequency walkie-talkies have shorter antennas — they are tuned to the wavelength of the electromagnetic energy (typically 1/4 of it anyway with the walkie-talkie itself the other 1/4).
Summary. It isn’t a “pulse”. It is like a tsunami, a big slow wave. Out at sea a small boat rides the tsunami barely noticing it because to the boat the sea slowly rises, then slowly settles. The wavelength is so much longer than the boat that the boat simply “rides” it. The same with your household electronics. They will simply “ride” the slow change in magnetism. But a thousand mile long transmission line is too big to ride it, one end will experience different magnetism than the other and this will induce a very large direct current into equipment not expecting ANY direct current.
As to high voltage DC transmission lines such as in northeastern Canada (Nelson River project), those systems are already DC with completely different consequences. Conceivably you could actually harness the power of the magnetic storm with such a transmission line.
Michael 2 says:
August 3, 2014 at 10:53 am
Long wires (hundreds of miles) will experience induction currents, everything else not so much. […] The “frequency” of a solar flare magnetic field change is probably less than 1 Hz, …
The important parameter is the rate of change of the magnetic field dB/dT which for an extreme event can reach 10-100 nT/sec [not really a ‘frequency’ as such]. This kind of change will induce an electric field up to 10 Volt/km. This is what has to be detected and dealt with.
Citations
Principles of transformers:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transformer
Geomagnetic induction:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetically_induced_current
Maybe I missed it, but I didn’t see any mention in the report of the strength of the electromagnetic fields that might be expected with such an event. A lot of equipment is currently being tested to withstand either 30 volts/meter or 100 volts/meter (see ISO 13776 and ISO 13309) external fields. Until we know the parameters of the potential problem it is difficult to develop a proper cost effective preventative.
More citations
High voltage circuit breaker
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sulfur_hexafluoride_circuit_breaker
Zero-point quenching (opening a circuit breaker when current is zero)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circuit_breaker
Rich Lambert says: “strength of the electromagnetic fields that might be expected with such an event. A lot of equipment is currently being tested to withstand either 30 volts/meter or 100 volts/meter”
It appears geomagnetic fields are rated in volts per kilometer.
“about ten volts per kilometer”
http://web.ornl.gov/~webworks/cpr/v823/rpt/51089.pdf
http://scienceblogs.com/builtonfacts/2010/06/18/power-from-the-earths-magnetic/
@J. Ferguson:
Hi! Sounds like an interesting ride 😉
IC Gear is least sturdy. Tubes best. Discrete in the middle. I have a Sony SWR IC type that is my major ‘user’. An older discrete that is in ‘stores’… and a ‘valve’ (tube) radio kit I’ve not built yet in my deep storage. I expect that they all will be fine.
@Les Francis:
Yes, there ‘will be issues’. But folks have been dealing with ‘issues’ for generations. Yes, cities need a lot of power to be normal, so they won’t be normal for a while. Doesn’t mean they will become Zombie Land, though.
I’ve been through a couple of ‘disasters’, including a 7ish quake that had power out for a few days. Life went on. It’s a mess for a week, you find ways to ‘make do’, and recovery builds out from a core (and in from the perimeter). During a Carrington Event, the perimeter build-in will be missing… so it will take longer to recover and it will come from build-outs from the core spots.
I fully expect, for example, to power the surrounding couple of houses from my ‘kit’. No, not their AC, but some lights and such.
During times of extreme disaster, folks are more at liberty to do things that work, but are not ‘approved’. So, for example, I’d expect anywhere down-wires from a hydro facility to be up pretty quick. Any blown links can be patched around (even if not with ideal electronic gear) and power can flow to a selected area. Then you start the build outward… (Frankly, IMHO, the biggest PITA will be all the ‘smart meters’ that will be dead. Each house will need an individual patch past the meter to function…) In large cities, most major buildings have a load of backup generation, so those will be the ‘core spots’ from which the build-back starts. It’s the residential areas that are least prepared.
Oh, and FWIW, the notion that everyone goes crazy and uncivilized after a disaster is just more fantasy novel fodder. In the Quebec / N.E. power failure, folks did fine. In the Loma Prieta quake, it was more peaceful and with better cooperation than during normal times. Folks ‘pull together’ rather than blow up in revolt. My favorite memory was driving home post quake. Power was out everywhere and the normal ‘going home’ commute was gridlock – so what would this be? I was thinking 24 hours instead of my usual 1 hour as ‘possible’. Planned to walk in with my backpack emergency kit if the overpasses were down. So what did I find? At the first major intersection, a lady in a business suit was directing traffic. At the second, a guy in spandex (bike leaning against the dead light pole) was doing it. They looked like they always wanted to try directing traffic, and somebody needed to, so… In all, it took me about 2 1/2 hours to get home.
We had a wine and cheese party with friends over (they were without power…) and watched satellite TV news reports (local TV was out). Nice time had by all.
That’s what really happens. Folks “work it out” by working together. Civilized folks stay civilized because that is what they are.
Yes, it would be a mess. But no, it will not be The End Of Civilization. Civilization existed before the electric grid, and continues to exist when it is down ( I’ve seen it. ) If it takes more than a couple of weeks to get minimal services back up, it will start getting a bit rough, but IMHO it would take at least a month for things to ‘go pear shaped’… and by then the ‘working cores’ will be building outward and fixes will be well along for many areas. Might we lose New York City or Washington D.C.? Well, we can only hope… 😉
Oh, and FWIW, pretty much every RV and boat ought to be intact and fine. A few million islands of power and comfort all over the place. Full utilities too. (My old 27 foot sailboat was my liveaboard for a couple of years. 40 gallons of Diesel on it would run the motor for a year of normal use. In a ‘disaster’ it would keep power on for weeks to months. Boat is too small to couple to a Carrington pulse. Many RVs are metal skinned, those that are not are too short to couple anyway. Even if the grid is down, the RV parks and Marinas will be having a party…