From PhysicsWorld blog: The cover feature of the August issue of Physics World, which is now out in print and digital formats, looks at the Sun – and in particular, at the consequences here on Earth of a “solar super-storm”. As I point out in the video [below], these violent events can disturb the Earth’s magnetic field – potentially inducing damaging electrical currents in power lines, knocking out satellites and disrupting telecommunications.
One particularly strong solar super-storm occured back in 1859 in what is known as the “Carrington event”, so named after the English astronomer who spotted a solar flare that accompanied it. The world in the mid-19th century was technologically a relatively unsophisticated place and the consequences were pretty benign. But should a storm of similiar strength occur today, the impact could be devastating to our way of life.
The feature has been written by Ashley Dale from the University of Bristol, who last year took part in a gathering of space experts to examine and report on the potential consequences of a solar super-storm here on Earth. I don’t want to cause alarm, but as Dale points out, the Earth is, on average, in the path of Carrington-level events every 150 years – which means we are five years overdue.
Reports:
SolarMAX_Executive summary Adobe Acrobat PDF
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SolarMAX_Final report.pdf Adobe Acrobat PDF
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Review:
“To date the most severe power system disturbance resulting from a geomagnetic storm occurred on March 13, 1989, at a storm level of K-9. The geomagnetic storm on that date produced GICs that caused widespread electric power system problems, the most severe being a power-system-wide blackout on the Hydro-Quebec power system. The blackout of the Hydro-Quebec system (of Quebec, Canada) resulted from the saturation of transformers by GICs and the ensuing operation of protection equipment because of the injection of harmonics from the transformers. Restoration of 83 % (of 2 1,500 MW) of the Hydro-Quebec system generation took over nine hours .”
http://web.ornl.gov/~webworks/cpr/v823/rpt/51089.pdf Page 16
What happens is that transformers do not like DC, direct current. It magnetizes the core and stays magnetized. Alternating Current, which is what they are designed to handle, reverses the magnetism 50 or 60 times per second (depending on nation) and prevents permanent magnetization or “saturation”. As the core starts to become saturated the smooth sine-wave of alternating current starts to develop spikes, called harmonics, and these spikes are very bad for a variety of reasons. Circuit breakers automatically opened to prevent these harmonics (spikes) from damaging the grid and customer equipment and that shunted the load onto fewer and fewer generating stations until they all had no choice but to shut down the entire grid. Of course it was all automatic.
Then you have a problem getting started again. Without a load, generators will overspeed and self destruct so they have mechanisms for automatic shutdown in that case. So most of the generating stations will shut down even though the cause of the problem has long since passed.
Generating stations require power to operate the generator itself so there’s a “catch-22” or bootstrap problem called “black start” where you borrow power from a neighbor to get started. But with the grid open you cannot do that. A few stations have a small battery-started generator and once those stations are online you re-attach the grid through an inter-tie to your neighbors to get them started.
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If you have your own kilometer of wire you’d get ten volts out of it, not very threatening, and with typical household wire lengths you’d have to make careful measurements to get *anything* even during a powerful geomagnetic storm.
E.M.Smith says “Oh, and FWIW, the notion that everyone goes crazy and uncivilized after a disaster is just more fantasy novel fodder. In the Quebec / N.E. power failure, folks did fine. In the Loma Prieta quake, it was more peaceful and with better cooperation than during normal times. Folks ‘pull together’ rather than blow up in revolt.”
It depends on where you are and the underlying culture of civilization (or not). Haiti was indeed zombiland after their earthquake, but Japan remained civilized after their big quake. I’ll admit to some surprise at the civilized response in California after the Loma Prieta quake (buddy of mine, ham radio operator, was an emergency responder in that one).
A few miles can make a big difference, too. In the early 1990’s when I lived in Maryland and worked in Washington DC, 500 murders took place inside the beltway — but in Virginia in the same geographic area about a dozen (and in all of North Dakota, four!).
Latitude makes attitude.
Oh, and I probably ought to put these links up for anyone looking to ‘prepare’. There is more to preparation than food…
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2011/02/17/minimalist-emergency-power/
About $50 worth of ‘kit’ ( $30 if you shop well ) can get you ‘enough’ power. This is my ‘travel kit’. It goes in the car with me at all times. Enough to keep the laptop, cell phone, et. al. charged and keep a light on (included) along with the laptop running. No, not enough to cook dinner. For that, you use fuel in a stove. I usually travel with a minimal camping kitchen (backpack stove / pots) too. Unfortunately, due to a tendency to Aspe Like obsession with a topic… I own about a dozen different camp stoves. In a Real Disaster ™ I’ll be handing them out to the dozen families most in need near me… FWIW, the gas in my car, used to recharge the battery, ought to keep this minimal power kit running for about a week, minimum. More if I’m at all careful.
For household cooking, I’m fond of this stove. Pretty much bullet proof (i.e. no fancy parts), and since the government has been screwing around with the chemistry of gasoline and Diesel, they don’t store as well as in the past (though Diesel is still much better than gasoline); while Kerosene is still the long duration storage champ. (It is also used in jet turbines, so will be widely available wherever emergency flights / military show up…)
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2013/04/02/butterfly-2487-16-wick-stove/
That and a five gallon can of kerosene will have you set for a LOT of cooking. (While it is possible to just soak rice and beans in water and eat them without cooking, it’s a lot tastier to cook them… and kidney beans MUST be cooked as they have a mild toxin otherwise.)
The brickwork it is sitting on is my ersatz DIY stove made from what is likely to be left laying around after the earthquake or hurricane. The “pile of bricks” stove. So ‘after the fall’, you can make a stove out of junk Very Easily.
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2013/02/25/pob-grill-layout/
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2013/02/24/g70-brick-stove-first-fire/
Since there is a lot of burnable trash in the world, getting fuel in a disaster isn’t much of a problem. Maybe in the second month, but not for a while.
For folks who just want to throw money at an interesting bit of technical kit, this is a small camping stove that runs on a few bits of small sticks / twigs and also charges your cell phone:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2013/02/22/usb-wood-fired-stove-iphone/
So you can see, it’s not hard to find ways to cook food and sterilize water in a disaster. All it takes is a few bricks and sticks. It also isn’t hard to store food for a month. (One ‘dry pound’ per person per day. So a 20 lb bag of rice and 20 lbs of beans is 40 person days and costs about $30. Put it in sealed glass jars and it keeps for years. (Yes, I’ve tested it… came through that 7ish quake just fine, and it is bug and water proof.)
So all up, for about $100, you can be prepared with water, stove, food, and power. For $300 or so you can go high tech 😉 I was prepared for a 2 month outage figuring the quake was ‘due’. I used my ‘kit’ for all of 3 days since recovery was faster than I expected.
In a Real Disaster ™, I plan to set up Smith’s Kitchen and care for those less prepared. So will a lot of other folks…
Leif Svalgaard says: “The important parameter is the rate of change of the magnetic field dB/dT which for an extreme event can reach 10-100 nT/sec”
That is correct but as many here think it is a sharp pulse, like your engine’s ignition coil operating a spark plug or the flyback transformer back in the days of cathode ray tube televisions, describing it as “slow” helps understand its real impact on transformers: core saturation rather than high voltage differential causing sparks from your fingertips and that sort of thing.
Anyway, 100 nanoteslas per second is minuscule, important only on wires measured in miles or kilometers.
To put things in perspective, a Tesla is more magnetism than most people will ever experience. “The strongest fields encountered from permanent magnets are from Halbach spheres which can be over 4.5 T”
“1 Tesla = 10,000 G (gauss)” That’s an incredibly powerful magnet.
“31.869 micro Tesla – strength of Earth’s magnetic field at 0° latitude, 0° longitude”
You are speaking of NANO Tesla, where Earth’s field is 31,869 nano-teslas. it is doubtful you’d see 100 nanotesla move a magnetic compass needle.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_%28unit%29
Ah so, I see why Wikipedia includes the power-of-ten thing. Different readers around the world will see the comma as a decimal point. 32 micro-tesla (3.2 x 10^-5 Tesla) for Earth’s magnetic field strength at N/S 0 E/W 0.
Michael 2 says:
August 3, 2014 at 12:21 pm
You are speaking of NANO Tesla, where Earth’s field is 31,869 nano-teslas. it is doubtful you’d see 100 nanotesla move a magnetic compass needle.
100 nT is considered a good-sized magnetic storm and will move the compass needle a good amount [depending on where on the Earth you are].
But the issue is dB/dt, and there 100 nT/sec is serious.
Here’s a prediction: If there ever is a nation-wide blackout that lasts for more than a few days, martial law will follow along with the constitution being suspended.
Wonder if there are ways to see if a sun burst induced blackout was really caused by the sun or an EMP bomb being detonated high in the atmosphere?
kramer says:
August 3, 2014 at 1:12 pm
Wonder if there are ways to see if a sun burst induced blackout was really caused by the sun or an EMP bomb being detonated high in the atmosphere?
Looking at the Sun would help settling that 🙂
Michael 2 at 11:40 AM today
Thanks for the information.
Rich
Leif Svalgaard says: August 3, 2014 at 12:39 pm
100 nT is considered a good-sized magnetic storm
…………………..
geomagnetic storm on the eve of Japan’s (Fukushima) Mega Quake, for Bz and Bh registered about 600-700nT p/p
(see here )
with instant change for Bz ~ 450nT. comment at the time of the gm storm preceding the quake http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/03/10/sol-is-finally-waking-up/#comment-617659
vukcevic says:
August 3, 2014 at 2:39 pm
geomagnetic storm on the eve of Japan’s (Fukushima) Mega Quake, for Bz and Bh registered about 600-700nT p/p
Tromsoe is not representative for geomagnetic storms as the station registers substorms that can reach several thousand nT, and any ‘correlation’ is just coincidence. It has been shown many times that geomagnetic activity is not correlated with earthquakes, e.g. http://www.leif.org/research/Earthquake-Activity-Trigger.png
I’ve been reading Leif Svalgaard’s paper on revisiting sunspot numbers particularly with regard to solar flux impact on ordinary magnetic compasses.
Is there a time-lapse video of a compass responding to this flux?
As a ham radio operator I am operationally familiar with the various ionosphere layers.
I had no idea that a compass will respond to changes in magnetism caused by the sun. I suspect it doesn’t change very much and it clearly depends on where you are. I wish I had known this when I lived in Iceland directly under the aurora borealis — a million amperes of current overhead suggests stronger magnetic influences on the ground.
http://www.leif.org/research/Revisiting-the-Sunspot-Number.pdf
“Wolf considered another way to estimate the strength of past solar cycles: magnetic needle
readings. Far ultraviolet (FUV) radiation from the Sun, enhanced by solar activity, creates and maintains the E-layer of the ionosphere, where dynamo action from moving air causes an electric current to flow above the dayside of the Earth at about 100 km altitude (Cf. Svalgaard 2014b, this volume). The magnetic effect of this current is readily measured by magnetometers on the ground and is best seen in the East Component of the geomagnetic field [cites pruned]. The current stays fixed with respect to the direction to the Sun and its magnetic effect, deflecting the “magnetic needle” at a right angle to the current, increases to a maximum at about 8h local time, then disappears when the current is overhead, and finally increases again, but in the opposite direction, to a maximum at about 2h. The range, rY, from the morning deflection to the afternoon deflection, depends essentially on the solar zenith angle and the FUV flux.”
Well, maybe not visible on a compass. I have a large marine compass that might be able to see a 70 nanoTesla magnetic variation but I have a doubt that such small force could overcome needle bearing friction. Still, where I work there’s enough vibration from the HVAC to possibly break the friction.
http://www.leif.org/research/AGU%20Spring%202008%20SP23A-07.pdf
Goddard Space Flight Center:
“There is strong evidence of electromagnetic processes responsible for earthquake triggering, that we study extensively. We will focus here on one correlation between power in solar wind compressional fluctuations and power in magnetospheric pulsations and ground H component fluctuations. The variation of the horizontal component H of the geomagnetic field is the crucial parameter in the Magneto-Seismic Effect MSE to be discussed in a companion paper. The connection of earthquake activity to possible solar or solar wind drivers is not well understood; many authors have attempted correlations in the past with mixed results. ”
Geophysical Research Abstracts,Vol.8,01705, 2006;Lab for Solar and Space Physics, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center,Greenbelt, MD
http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU06/01705/EGU06-J-01705.pdf
Thank you, vukcevic – As I ‘lurk about’ here oft times, I’m continually impressed by the degree you seem to be able to view with equanimity all caliber of responses to your enlightening and informative comments. Kudos.
From my link/Youtube above, a passage from the ‘press release’ regarding the soon to be submitted for publication paper on correlation between solar polar fields and major seismic events on Earth: –
“…In this retrospective analysis, the null hypothesis was that there was no relationship between the solar polar fields and M8+ earthquakes. Under this hypothesis, the fraction of days identified as residing in windows with increased likelihood of seismicity, as a percentage of the total days over the 35 years, would include a similar percentage of the large earthquakes over that same period. The analysis showed 41.6% of the days residing in these windows captured just under 78.8% of the M8+ earthquakes. “We cannot formally invalidate the null hypothesis, but the performance of the developed model is extremely encouraging. We believe it is likely to be validated by future data.”
I’m no statistician, of course, not remotely – barely passed the requisites in college and would certainly fail today – but aren’t there one of those ‘popular analogies’ available to illustrate how far beyond ‘chance’ are these numbers? Like how many coin tosses at a given rate, or some such? Anyone?
The “days residing in these windows” are very narrow, btw, out of the time span covered (35 yrs),
“based on things like peaks and troughs in solar cycles or the absolute strength of one of the poles at a particular time”. Fully covered/described in background videos on the S0 sites.
Ben Davidson, whom I’ve had privilege to meet, is a very open guy – you might have some stuff to share with each other, vukcevic – perhaps on his nightly FOTW audio discussions – which he maintains from the Mobile Observatory as he’s touring the country meeting his ‘fans’ (188,000 subscribed, and counting)
Also excellent Sun Watching instructional videos posted – to guide folks to do their own observations through the established channels, and understand what they’re looking at…conceivably one might get ‘early warning’, if not 100% confirmation, of something troubling on its’ way, be it CME or Coronal Hole Stream, from whatever event on Our Sun.
I find it very refreshing that some folks who make this their full-time occupation, are still able to take the time to explain the Basics to the laypeople, and arm them, should they be so motivated, to further research, observe, and make their own decisions as to what is really going on….
Best,
David S
vukcevic says:
August 3, 2014 at 2:56 pm
The connection of earthquake activity to possible solar or solar wind drivers is not well understood; many authors have attempted correlations in the past with mixed results. ”
As I said, pure coincidence, with attendant set of believers
vukcevic says:
August 3, 2014 at 2:56 pm
The connection of earthquake activity to possible solar or solar wind drivers is not well understood; many authors have attempted correlations in the past with mixed results. ”
Careful analysis of more than 2000 storms over more than a century shows no correlation at all. But for the gullible, anything is possible.
Leif Svalgaard says:
August 3, 2014 at 3:37 pm
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Boy I am having a hard time understanding this new “solar Polar”? field theory on earthquake triggers.
whew.
Do these guys know that the solar polar field has been diddly squat since about the year 2000 and possibly still weakening?
http://www.leif.org/research/Solar-Polar-Fields-1966-now.png
It is ok. no need to respond.
good night
Hi Carla – Actually, yes – they are very aware of the ‘weakening’ sun, and also of the accelerating decrease in the strength of the earth’s magnetosphere, as well as the acceleration of movement of the earth’s pole(s). As I understand it, btw, Ben Davidson is a great admirer of the work of Dr Svalgaard and has repeatedly referenced his (Leif’s) and other solar scientists’ recent conference speaking to the subject of this “weakening”. (Excuse me if I choose not to stumble over the exact and proper terminology). That there may be some divergence of opinion, I’ve also no doubt. YMMV.
It certainly appears that simultaneously, there are great “weather” changes occurring on many of the planets in our solar system, perhaps “coincidentally” enough.
I’ve no idea what it all means, (though have my ‘suspicions’), and take a little comfort in a fair certainty that neither does anyone else, really. I don’t dismiss anything ‘out of hand’, and believe in the end it will be “all about evidence”.
But as to the “interstellar medium” – – wasn’t there recently a lot of consternation among the cognescenti, with mucho handwringing as to the need for “a new theory”, when Voyager hit the ‘Heliopause’ and what was supposed to be there…well…it was found to be Very Different?
No worries, it’s late here, and I’m sure “the science is settled” on all these matters, just as it is that comets are just ‘dirty snowballs’ as surely we’ll see in a few days when Rosetta, with a Langmuir probe on board, joins company with 67/P, which is busy sublimating water at 1/2 litre/sec, just like the billion-year-old ice moons of Jupiter!
Oh…right…never mind.
Carla says:
August 3, 2014 at 6:54 pm
Boy I am having a hard time understanding this new “solar Polar”? field theory on earthquake triggers.
Don’t worry, it is nonsensical pseudy-science anyway. As bad as the interstellar magnetic field controlling solar activity and rheumatic fever.
Unmentionable
Talk to PAGASA meteorologists. I’ve done that. Yup 19 to 20 storms every year. I cannot do anything about your disbelief. Philippines has 7,100 islands. Many are inhabited. If a storm hits one of those islands. That’s a landfall.
I was most amused by dp”s post, most enlightened by michael 2 and vukcevik?
At first I thought the 600-700 nT p-p response mentioned in connection with Fukishima might have been related to the motion of the earth itself. {One of the labs I experienced as an undergraduate was of the voltage produced by quickly rotating a large coil (in the earth’s magnetic field). Later, at Stanford U. I became aware of Dr. Tony Fraser-Smith’s work trying to correlate earthquakes with VLF and magnetometer measurements in the hopes of being able to predict earthquakes. I’m not sure how these turned out. I do remember that he complained about BART’s effect on his measurements. For those of you not near SF, BART is Bay Area Rapid Transit, a rail system operating on DC.
BTW even without landfall if a storm passes near an island, it will experience strong winds, torrential rains and storm surge. All of that are devastating.
I’m a bit skeptical of the catastrophic 2015 Carrington event scenario. Let me paint an alternative scenario. The worst solar storm in the “electric age” is the Quebec event. (The Carrington event happened before Edison and Tesla invented electric generation and distribution)
The Quebec event caused power outage to 6 million people in Canada and US. That’s 1.8% of the population. 98 out of 100 people in the two countries had electric power. Electric power was restored in 9 hours.
Suppose the 2015 Carrington event will be twice worse than the Quebec event. We expect twice more transformers will be damaged. (I suspect it’s just the circuit breakers not the transformers) It will take twice more time to fix the damage. 4 out of 100 people will be out of power for 18 hours. They will miss their favorite TV show.
Almost everyone posting on this is in total denial.
A few million people dead? A few days, weeks, months, of disruption? It will take a while to get back to normal? Oh, and government will have enough time to prepare? How many decades have they had? Now they’re going to spring into action and magically fend off the threat on half a day’s warning?
We’re talking about an event that would likely destroy a totally overextended civilization through a social breakdown unprecedented in the historical or archeological record. Within less than a week, millions could starve or freeze to death in our major urban areas, followed soon after by mass murder, cannibalism, and the loss of all social order.
And those who manage to survive without losing their sanity can then look forward to dealing with rampant pollution and disease without the high-tech tools and information network we’ve become dependent on. I don’t think they’ll last very long.
Religious demagogues would likely finish the job of destroying whatever technology is still available, together with those who might be skilled in its use, following the example of the Khmer Rouge. This would not be a return to 19th or 18th century lifestyle, but to a solitary nightmare world filled with undetectable toxins in the water, air, and soil, the threat of violent death around every corner, and probably a resurgence of human sacrifice to “appease the gods” and fill the stomach.
otropogo pontificated, saying “Almost everyone posting on this is in total denial.”
If everyone seems to be going the wrong way, perhaps you are in the wrong lane 😉
“We’re talking about an event that would likely destroy a totally overextended civilization through a social breakdown unprecedented in the historical or archeological record.”
That would be an asteroid collision with earth except that it *is* precedented, or global warming, or ebola, or world war 3, or any of several other disaster scenarios — oh yes, don’t forget neutrinos liquifying the mantle and moving China a few thousand miles in a couple of hours (from the movie “2012”) so that a huge Antonov aircraft can land on it when it runs out of fuel. Talk about a “deus ex machina” plot twist of global proportions. Oh, just remembered whats-his-name in “Knowing”. Solar CME wiping out Earth and children saved by whirling things.
Exactly how are YOU prepared for Earth destroying disasters?
“Religious demagogues would likely finish the job of destroying whatever technology is still available”
On the contrary. Religious demagogues such as myself will likely be the ones to reinstitute technology probably starting with vacuum tubes since it doesn’t require silicon fabrication facilities. My personal favorite is the 12AX7 twin triode – extremely versatile! If by that description you mean “Mormons” they will not only re-institute technology but government itself, believing the Constitution of the United States was divinely appointed in the first place and believing they will be the torchbearers of reconstitution after whatever disaster is appointed to remove most of humanity. You are right about one thing — what actually removes most of humanity will be other humanity.
“probably a resurgence of human sacrifice to “appease the gods” and fill the stomach.”
Combine Mad Max with The Postman with Book of Eli. Yep, got the picture and its sequels.
Victor Frank says:
August 3, 2014 at 7:25 pm
Later, at Stanford U. I became aware of Dr. Tony Fraser-Smith’s work trying to correlate earthquakes with VLF and magnetometer measurements in the hopes of being able to predict earthquakes. I’m not sure how these turned out.
They didn’t give the result Fraser-Smith was hoping for and are generally considered a failure:
http://www.leif.org/EOS/Fraser-Smith-Earthquake.pdf
There is an ‘apparent’ correlation between Ap and volcanic ‘index’ of eruptions in the higher latitudes of the N. Hemisphere. This does not necessarily mean that the sun is a cause, but it could be simply due to the earth field’s geomagnetic input.
@E.M.Smith
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/01/a-bigger-worry-than-global-warming-and-more-damaging-a-carrington-class-solar-event/#comment-1700634
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Your experience with a civilized response to a week’s disruption from a (relatively) local event in a warm locale was well before we had 50%+ living off the gum’mint teat. If there is an event that affects the entire USA for more than a week or so in the winter months, things could get… difficult.
Michael 2 says:
……
Ordinary compass might have a difficulty of registering anything. If you are above 50N latitude you can make your own magnetometer. Super-glue vertically a tiny mirror as close as possible to the spindle, shine a laser LED onto it, enclose it in a small box with a slit on the side. Position it on your desk so light from the mirror is reflected on a nearby wall (the further the better. Since the signal is strongest during the night turn of the light for the best view. Keep an eye on this webpage http://flux.phys.uit.no/cgi-bin/plotgeodata.cgi?Last24&site=tro2a& and
you might pick up the declination signal. (red line)