From PhysicsWorld blog: The cover feature of the August issue of Physics World, which is now out in print and digital formats, looks at the Sun – and in particular, at the consequences here on Earth of a “solar super-storm”. As I point out in the video [below], these violent events can disturb the Earth’s magnetic field – potentially inducing damaging electrical currents in power lines, knocking out satellites and disrupting telecommunications.
One particularly strong solar super-storm occured back in 1859 in what is known as the “Carrington event”, so named after the English astronomer who spotted a solar flare that accompanied it. The world in the mid-19th century was technologically a relatively unsophisticated place and the consequences were pretty benign. But should a storm of similiar strength occur today, the impact could be devastating to our way of life.
The feature has been written by Ashley Dale from the University of Bristol, who last year took part in a gathering of space experts to examine and report on the potential consequences of a solar super-storm here on Earth. I don’t want to cause alarm, but as Dale points out, the Earth is, on average, in the path of Carrington-level events every 150 years – which means we are five years overdue.
Reports:
SolarMAX_Executive summary Adobe Acrobat PDF
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SolarMAX_Final report.pdf Adobe Acrobat PDF
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Michael 2 says:
August 4, 2014 at 10:16 am
Well, maybe not visible on a compass. I have a large marine compass that might be able to see a 70 nanoTesla magnetic variation but I have a doubt that such small force could overcome needle bearing friction
It depends on where you are. Up near the magnetic pole [e.g. in Thule Greenland] the compass needle can swing many degrees and the compass is essentially useless. At lower latitudes the swings are less, but still visible, see e.g. the image on slide 2 of http://www.leif.org/research/HMF-1835-2014-Sapporo.pdf which shows a large magnetic used in Helsinki [Finland] to show the variations. The observer looked at the end of the magnet with a small telescope. The effect was discovered by George Graham in London in 1722. Here is his report http://www.leif.org/EOS/Graham-Variation-1722.pdf
Period between 22nd February and 11th March of 2011 was notable for serious of strong geomagnetic storms and coincidently a number of strong earthquakes, in particular two that attracted most of the media coverage, the New Zeland’s and the Japan’s mega quake.
Here are some of the magntograms and eq’s timings .
As suggested above, vukcevic – you might find a receptive audience over at the S0’s – and some ‘synergy’ for your research and ideas – much of which is “Greek” to me (I CAN say hello, and order certain prepared dishes, though ;-)).
Rather than “geomagnetic storms”, the folks over at the SCS at Ohio State, are looking (and have built an algorithm) at the Solar Polar Fields – peaks, troughs, cross-overs…and with these, the correlation with geo-seismic events, is looking…somewhat…robust.
Here’s some ‘new terminology’ that’s been coined to deal with the data: –
Polar Maximum – the years of most extreme polarity on the sun, correlating to what is commonly referred to as ‘solar minimum’ for the low number of sunspots. We see an indirect relationship between sunspots and polarity.
Polar Minimum – the years of polarity reversal on the sun, correlating to what is commonly referred to as ‘solar maximum for the high number of sunspots.
Polar Recovery – the first 3 mini cycles of each solar pole, or ~18 months following Polar Minimum, where the build-back to Polar Maximum is weakest and in the beginning process of ‘getting going’ for that cycle.
–Minicycles are the up and downs that happen about once a year during the solar cycle. You could consider them to be from peak to peak or trough to trough – it really does not matter.
And here’s the raw, largely ‘unprocessed’ data page over at the Wilcox: –
http://wso.stanford.edu/Polar.html
I can’t help but surmise that all the ‘heated exchanges’ are akin to that (lengthy) aphorism about the blind men and the elephant. Or as in science history, the existence, or lack thereof, of Phlogiston.
Me…I figure that when the whole Heliospheric story finally begins to emerge, the wonder of it all will surpass even our wildest imaginings…
Here’s a link to the “Press Release” (from Saturday): – http://www.suspicious0bservers.org/sun-trigger-large-earthquakes/
There’s a neat chart of the pattern they’ve discovered in the Solar Polar data over at the “Quakes” page at the S0’s, but it’s behind a paywall ($20/year – worth it just for the nightly audio conferences!) You could also find it shown in Ben Davidson’s talk at the (it-that-shall-not-be-named) Conference from this year…
DON’T miss Dr. Kongpop U-Yen’s info on the Blog! (if you go at all) – there’s something WAY bigger a-foot than “Earthquakes”….still VERY early though – Ben D is doing his best to apply the concepts to daily global weather data. Not paywalled – check it out!
Best,
David Sharkey (Tiburon) in the GreatWhiteNorth – (and no, NO affiliation, beyond being a minion among the very very many!… ;-))
vukcevic says:
August 4, 2014 at 11:54 am
Period between 22nd February and 11th March of 2011 was notable for serious of strong geomagnetic storms and coincidently a number of strong earthquakes
This is pseudo-science. There is no causal relationship between strong geomagnetic storms and strong earthquakes. Careful analysis of over 2000 storms the last 100 years shows no response whatsoever.
vukcevic says:
August 4, 2014 at 11:54 am
Period between 22nd February and 11th March of 2011 was notable for serious of strong geomagnetic storms and coincidently a number of strong earthquakes
Furthermore, you have no idea what you are talking about. What you call ‘strong geomagnetic storms’ at Tromsoe are not storms at all, but simply the regular signature of the auroral oval sweeping over Tromsoe every night http://www.leif.org/research/Tromsoe-2011-03.png
Yes it would be very easy for the folks with access to the technology to tell the difference. The solar storm/CME would be well known in the sun watching community before it arrived at earth. It would also probably get mentioned on the nightly news the day before just like current solar storms and high visibility northern lights are news items now.
Likewise a high altitude nuclear detonation would be immediately recognizable to governments and military and be detected by multiple systems. A high altitude burst has a characteristic very short pulse in the visible spectrum simultaneous with an xray/gama ray pulse (source of the E1 EMP pulse) followed by a nearly instantaneous very fast rise time pulse extending to the visible horizon of the event. There would also be a long duration localize aurora near the burst point after the event which would be easily visible 600-1000 miles distant depending on altitude and yield.
The wave form of the surges generated on power lines would be much different between the two events, with the fast rise time EMP E1 pulse from a high altitude burst coupling to high frequency systems and getting by protective systems which would block low frequency surges induced by a solar storm. Damage from the solar event would be confined to long power lines and the custom one off power transformers which are designed to operate on the edge of magnetic saturation to get maximum efficiency. These solar induced surges would be much like the E3 effects of a HEMP alone without the E1 and E2 impacts.
Third the only practical way to get a nuclear weapon to high altitude 60 – 400 miles, being a rocket or de-orbit from an orbital payload, would make this attack generally easy to spot by the military and astronomical community, being seen by other systems that monitor using infrared and electronic systems (warning radar systems, test ban treaty monitoring and missile launch detection systems).
The average person on the street won’t have ready access to this info, but the national authority folks will easily be able to tell the difference.
The mechanism of action, location distribution and the nature of the systems impacted will also paint a picture that would strongly imply which cause was at fault.
A competently executed EMP attack in my view is a significantly more serious issue for a single country, where a solar storm could have large scale global impacts over large areas.
No, solar impact, no geomagnetic disturbances, I presume no aurorae, all quiet on the Tromso’s front
http://flux.phys.uit.no/cgi-bin/plotgeodata.cgi?Comps=dhz&tint=3hrs&block=1&day=1&mnt=07&year=2014&site=tro2a&next=+Next+%3E+
vukcevic says:
August 4, 2014 at 1:41 pm
No, solar impact, no geomagnetic disturbances, I presume no aurorae, all quiet on the Tromso’s front
You can always find three hours of calm somewhere [and no visible aurora during the day – it must be dark to see one, and you don’t show the 8 magnitude 5 earthquakes that took place just after the calm]. Your attempt to mislead the readers falls flat. Perhaps over at Tallbloke’s you will find a more gullible audience. Here is the data for July 2014 http://flux.phys.uit.no/cgi-bin/plotgeodata.cgi?Comps=dhz&tint=1mnt&block=2&day=1&mnt=07&year=2014&site=tro2a
Note the passage under the auroral oval every day near midnight
Tromsoe is particular unsuited for monitoring geomagnetic storms.
Tromso link:
http://flux.phys.uit.no/cgi-bin/plotgeodata.cgi?Comps=dhz&tint=1day&block=2&day=1&mnt=07&year=2014&site=tro2a
vukcevic says:
August 4, 2014 at 2:07 pm
Tromso link:
Irrelevant, please don’t pollute the thread.
Whole of July was very quiet
http://flux.phys.uit.no/cgi-bin/plotgeodata.cgi?Comps=dhz&tint=1mnt&block=2&day=1&mnt=07&year=2014&site=tro2a
except for one day what looks like a possible HSC transit on 10th ,
But let us take a look at NASA’s (Goddard Space Flight Center) animation, the cause of the magnetospheric sub-storms and how aurorae are formed
So….it is then, as I understood? Spikes in particle flow from the SUN, (can) cause, through a cascade of electromagnetic events, Aurorae. Hmmm. So then….
OH NEVER MIND.
vukcevic says:
August 4, 2014 at 3:33 pm
But let us take a look at NASA’s (Goddard Space Flight Center) animation, the cause of the magnetospheric sub-storms and how aurorae are formed
I basically told them long ago how that works…
” Michael 2 says:
August 4, 2014 at 9:22 am
otropogo pontificated, saying “Almost everyone posting on this is in total denial.”
….
Exactly how are YOU prepared for Earth destroying disasters? ”
Nowhere in my post did I refer to any ‘…Earth destroying disasters…’.
I lamented the lack of appropriate concern over our society’s lack of defense against an event with a high degree of probability that would likely drive humanity into a hellish existence that would make the life of the Neanderthals seem a walk in the park by comparison, and could very well end in extinguishing our species, perhaps mercifully.
As for what I’m doing about it – well, I’m trying to waken those who are not yet neurotic beyond all recovery to the threat, since, as even a somewhat intellectually challenged ‘skeptic’ will surely understand, the steps required to protect our civilization from this particular threat are far beyond the means of any single individual, no matter how rich or powerful.
But I do believe that our society has the means, given enough time to prepare, to protect itself against the worst effects of a solar EMP disaster.The question is whether it has the will.
Hopefully there are still some developed nations that have enough courage and grit to face this threat realistically. But I see no sign of that here in North America.
Leif Svalgaard says:
August 4, 2014 at 3:57 pm
I basically told them long ago how that works
Yes, but I am a very slow learners.
Some time ago I quoted:
“CMEs in the even-numbered solar cycles tend to hit Earth with a leading edge that is magnetized north. Such CMEs open a breach and load the magnetosphere with plasma starting a geomagnetic storm “
In this video from NASA’s (Goddard Space Flight Center)
at 6.52 min in, there is a very clear reference to it.
This would mean that within the Earth’s geomagnetic environment there is a difference in the solar input between the even and the odd cycles. In some of my ‘research’ I found very clear evidence of this.
vukcevic says:
August 5, 2014 at 12:55 am
“CMEs in the even-numbered solar cycles tend to hit Earth with a leading edge that is magnetized north. Such CMEs open a breach and load the magnetosphere with plasma starting a geomagnetic storm “
They may say so, but it is not correct. There is a 22-yr cycle in geomagnetic activity, but it is not tied to even-odd cycles. The real effect goes from maximum to maximum as explained in section 9 of http://www.leif.org/research/suipr699.pdf [and in section 5 of http://www.leif.org/research/Semiannual-Comment.pdf ].
Activity is higher for the eleven years from maximum [actually polar field reversal] of even cycles to the next maximum [polar field reversal] of the following odd cycle, and lower for the eleven years from maximum of odd cycles to the next maximum of the following even cycle.
Dr.Svalgaard
I am genuinely interested in this particular aspect. I have looked at your links, what is suggested there makes perfect sense.
However, if you listen carefully you will hear that the authors are very surprised by what came out from the satellite observation data and it is clearly stated that finding contradicts previous understanding (presumably including your paper from 1977).
There is no need to quote Richard Feynman.
This is not just simple theoretical debate, but it is of vital importance for space technology, satellite communications not to mention many billions of $US invested in it.
I hope that you would (before rejecting it outright) in your Stanford capacity appeal to NASA for more information. Your university surely has the capacity to process their data files, do a thorough examination, find out if it contradicts basic laws of physics, rather than just previous theoretical understanding of how a particular event may or may not develop.
I’ve listened to the second half (from 2’20’’ in ) 3 times (some sections more than 4 times) sentence at the time, and would be surprised if they would commit a huge blunder, unless they were certain about the interpretation. It also has gone into print on the NASA and the Science webpages. I have not come across another refutation of their findings.
vukcevic says:
August 5, 2014 at 10:10 am
I am genuinely interested in this particular aspect. I have looked at your links, what is suggested there makes perfect sense.
However, if you listen carefully you will hear that the authors are very surprised by what came out from the satellite observation data and it is clearly stated that finding contradicts previous understanding (presumably including your paper from 1977).
The data since 1977 still shows the same effect, see e.g. Figure 17 of http://www.leif.org/research/2007JA012437.pdf
Furthermore, the effect has a physical reason and it MUST be as observed. This has nothing to do with ‘satellite’ data, so either you or they have misunderstood something. It would not be the first time that NASA screws up.
vukcevic says:
August 5, 2014 at 10:10 am
they would commit a huge blunder, unless they were certain about the interpretation.
There are many things wrong with the video:
1) the is no ‘giant breach’. The magnetosphere is always open to the solar wind. When the solar wind magnetic field is southwards, reconnection is enhanced and more energy is fed into the magneto tail where it can be released later.
2) the particles in the tail come actually mostly from the Earth, not from the solar wind [the video actually admits that]. The notion that ‘the solar wind pours in’ is nonsense.
3) nothing is overturned. We can calculate very precisely how much geomagnetic activity we get for a given solar wind, see Figure 6 of http://www.leif.org/research/IAGA2008LS-final.pdf from our understanding of the physics.
4) the video is NASA nonsense of the worst kind.
An example of how ridiculous the NASA releases are:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2149806/posts
“The opening was huge—four times wider than Earth itself,” says Wenhui Li, a space physicist at the University of New Hampshire who has been analyzing the data. Li’s colleague Jimmy Raeder, also of New Hampshire, says “10^27 particles per second were flowing into the magnetosphere—that’s a 1 followed by 27 zeros.”
Since each particle [proton] has a mass of 1.7*10^(-27) kg [that is 26 zeroes after the decimal point], the influx amounts to a stupendous grand total of 1.7 kg per second, or, as I have often said, about the size of a very small turkey.
Expanding on the ‘turkey index’
Say this ‘imaginary’ breach last 2 h, i.e. 7,200sec x1.7kg makes about 12 metric tones, at a velocity of 3-400km/sec; i.e. size of a very large meteorite at Mach 1000, some turkey!
Energy e=mv^2/2 = a million billions (10^15) Joules = perhaps one M6 earthquake (oooh no, no …. that isn’t allowed)
It is all in the eye of a beholder !
OMG! Vukcevic! You’ve surpassed all bounds, how very droll! “Some Turkey!, Some Neck!” to paraphrase (badly of course) Winston Churchill. ROTFLMAO!
🙂 DS Ottawa
vukcevic says:
August 6, 2014 at 10:13 am
Say this ‘imaginary’ breach last 2 h, i.e. 7,200sec x1.7kg makes about 12 metric tones, at a velocity of 3-400km/sec; i.e. size of a very large meteorite at Mach 1000, some turkey!
200 tons of meteoric dust hits the earth every day. Neither they nor you have any sense of proportion. And only a small fraction [2%] of that turkey reaches the Earth, the rest is swept down the magnetotail.
Aaah…, Nordic lack of positivism (Ibsen, Sibelius and all that).
Meteoric dust is slowed down and burned in the atmosphere, energy converted into heat is by some climate scientists mistakenly attribute to the CO2 re-radiation.
Correct on the proton showers, they exert pressure on ionosphere, which propagates down all the way to the arctic region, and woooomph!
The Arctic atmospheric pressure and tectonics react synchronously.
As I said: it is all in the eye of beholder, or put it another way
Science works on the border between knowledge and ignorance.
smuggling contraband across that border is a lot of fun.
vukcevic says:
August 6, 2014 at 11:36 am
Correct on the proton showers, they exert pressure on ionosphere, which propagates down all the way to the arctic region, and woooomph! The Arctic atmospheric pressure and tectonics react synchronously.
Nonsense.
smuggling contraband across that border is a lot of fun
It may have entertainment value, but no scientific value.
My question would be, if we’re talking about ‘magnetotails’ – Do ALL planets have them? And with all this “magnetic reconnection” going on, and I’d assume some measurable level of “charge” (electrical) on the particles flowing around everywhere, might there be some concurrent, albeit still not formally measured and quantified, ‘effect’, on measured events here on Our Fair Planet and our formerly godlike neighbours?
Way that I see it, and it’s certainly ‘polar opposite’ of a scientific approach, is that we’re all swimming around in a sea of electrical charge (and the attendant magnetisms without presence of which of the former, the latter wouldn’t exist), from the bumblebee hovering over a flower up to the (now recently, hmmm? ‘disappeared’) Red Spot on Jupiter, and including our casual ‘hate-thy-noisy-neighbour thoughts up to the sublime meditations of Yogic Masters in Tibet….
…and that if a Bell Rings somewhere in Saturn’s Rings, we’ll be hearing it here, had we but ears to do so.
So there! 😀
Tiburon says:
August 6, 2014 at 1:34 pm
My question would be, if we’re talking about ‘magnetotails’ – Do ALL planets have them?
Basically yes, and comets too.
we’re all swimming around in a sea of electrical charge
We are not. The solar wind is electrically neutral, there are as many positive charged particles as there are negative charged particles. Once the moving solar wind which is a conductor] meets a [practically] stationary magnetic field like the the Earth’s, an electric field is induced near the Earth and electric currents flow.
Tiburon says:
August 6, 2014 at 1:22 pm
OMG! Vukcevic! You’ve surpassed all bounds
All bounds of reason. Vuk is totally off the rail here [and so many other times], but as you point out [‘ROTFLMAO’] he can be entertaining as long as it is recognized that there is not a single grain of science in his missives.