EPA document supports ~3% of atmospheric carbon dioxide is attributable to human sources

NOTE: this post has an error, see update below. – Anthony

From a Wry Heat reprinted with permission of Jonathan DuHamel

A new post on The Hockey Schtick reviews a new paper “that finds only about 3.75% [15 ppm] of the CO2 in the lower atmosphere is man-made from the burning of fossil fuels, and thus, the vast remainder of the 400 ppm atmospheric CO2 is from land-use changes and natural sources such as ocean outgassing and plant respiration.”

This new work supports an old table from the Energy Information Administration which shows the same thing: only about 3% of atmospheric carbon dioxide is attributable to human sources.  The numbers are from IPCC data. 

Look at the table and do the arithmetic: 23,100/793,100 = 0.029.

URL for table: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/archive/gg04rpt/pdf/tbl3.pdf

EPA_Table3pct

If one wanted to make fun of the alleged consensus of “climate scientists”, one could say that 97% of carbon dioxide molecules agree that global warming results from natural causes.

===============================================================

UPDATE:

Thanks to everyone who pointed out the difference in the chart and the issues.

I was offered this post by the author in WUWT Tips and Notes, here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/tips-and-notes/#comment-1696307 and reproduced below.

The chart refers to the annual increase in CO2, not the total amount. So it is misleading.

Since the original author had worked for the Tucson Citizen I made the mistake of assuming it was properly vetted.

The fault is mine for not checking further. But as “pokerguy” notes, it won’t disappear. Mistakes are just as valuable for learning. – Anthony Watts

wryheat2 says:

July 28, 2014 at 12:28 pm

Mr. Watts,

John Droz suggested I contact you.

On my blog, I commented on the reasearch by Denica Bozhinova on CO2 content due to fossil fuel burining. She apparently scared The Hockey Schtick into taking down his post on the matter. However, there is an older table from EIA which I reproduce on my post.

Denica Bozhinova has commented extensively, and frankly, I can’t understand her position since she seems to contradict what she wrote in the abstract to “Simulating the integrated summertime Ä14CO2 signature from anthropogenic emissions over Western Europe”

See my post here (you may reprint it if you wish):

http://wryheat.wordpress.com/2014/07/19/only-about-3-of-co2-in-atmosphere-due-to-burning-fossil-fuels/

Jonathan DuHamel

Tucson, AZ

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July 29, 2014 5:56 am

I would like comments on my attemps to get a handle on the anthropogenic contribution. http://retiredresearcher.wordpress.com/

ROM
July 29, 2014 6:36 am

As has been pointed out innumerable times on WUWT and every other skeptic web site around, plants need CO2 to live and survive and to provide the carbon component from the splitting of the CO2 molecule in the photosynthetic process for the sugars they produce that provide the plants with the energy that allows them to grow, flower and set seed.
Without plants there would be no sentient life on this planet.
Again as has been pointed out innumerable times, the pre industrial atmospheric levels of CO2 are claimed to have been around 280 ppm.
Plant biologists looking at fossilised leaves and counting the stomata that are the pores on the underside of the leaves through which CO2 is taken in by the plant and O2 left after the splitting of the CO2 molecule for it’s carbon component, plus water vapour, is expelled through those same leaf stomata.
High CO2 concentrations mean that the plant needs fewer stomata to access it’s needs for that essential CO2. Fewer stomata also means the plant conserves water better leading to more growth but less water requirements per growth mass to achieve that extra growth.
Consequently plant biologists who have studied the stomata numbers in fossilised leaves have claimed that the pre-industrial CO2 was around the 310 -320 ppm, or 30 or 40 ppm above that long standing claim of 280 ppm of pre-industrial CO2.
But that 280 ppm claim does make the supposed anthropogenic / humanity contribution to atmospheric CO2 by raising the CO2 levels to 400 ppm seem a much greater contribution than is likely the case.
At around the 180 ppm level of CO2 a lot of plant species start to suffer severe slow downs in growth as they become starved for that essential CO2 to split for its carbon component to make those growth essential plant sugars.
Below 150 ppm of atmospheric CO2 some plant species die due to CO2 starvation..
So if we take 180 ppm as the minimum plant requirement for survival then at that pre-industrial level of CO2 of 280 or 300 PPM, the plant kingdom had a pre-industrial CO2 buffer of about 100 to 120 ppm over it’s minimum for survival 180 ppm CO2.
At 400 ppm of CO2 that CO2 buffer stretches out to 220 ppm
Effectively if the increase in plant essential CO2 to 400 ppm is accepted as anthropogenic in origin, we humans have doubled the amount of the available plant useable CO2 from it’s previous buffer of 100-120 ppm pre-industrial levels to a healthy for plants, 200-220 ppms today..
Plants have got to love us for that and as we sentient beings of every calibre are in fact utterly dependent on the plant kingdom for our very existence then that doubling of available and plant useable CO2 over the last 40 or 50 years is of immense benefit to ALL life on this planet.
And if there is a fraction of a degree warming included then that also is of very considerable benefit.
May it long continue although sadly the warmth part of the equation might be coming to an unfortunate end for the next few generations of mankind.

tadchem
July 29, 2014 6:37 am

Footnote (a) is fascinating. It is explicitly assumed that 100% of the ‘natural source’ CO2 is absorbed, based on ‘balanced flux’, but slightly over half of the 23,100 million tonnes of “human-made emissions” go to ‘atmospheric absorption’ (whatever that is.)
One of the first things I learned as a chemistry student was that all molecules have amnesia – there is no way to tell where any particular one has been.

Bernard Lodge
July 29, 2014 6:50 am

The Mauna Loa CO2 trend gives some clues as to how much of the increase in atmospheric CO2 is man-made.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
Although atmospheric CO2 has increasing by 2 ppm each year for many years, every northern spring, CO2 concentrations actually fall by 7 ppm followed by a 9 ppm increase in the northern autumn. This cycle repeats every year without fail. Obviously seasonal changes in temperature are causing the seasonal fluctuations in atmospheric CO2. This raises two points:
1. Natural effects causes atmospheric CO2 to fluctuate hugely every year. Even if you accept that all the 2 ppm net annual increase each year is man-made, the natural annual fluctuations are much greater than the annual man-made effects. Without understanding the natural long term CO2 cycles, to assume that all the long term CO2 increase in the last 100 years is man-made should not be accepted as very likely at all.
2. The seasonal CO2 fluctuations clearly show that the temperature changes first, followed by changes in atmospheric CO2. Temperature is the independent variable and CO2 the dependent variable. This is the opposite of what the IPCC claims. Could someone among the many informed WUWT readers please explain how a dependent variable can also be an independent variable? I did not think that was mathematically possible.

Kyle K
July 29, 2014 6:50 am

Anthony, The Hockey Schtick was thoroughly discredited over this one, days before you picked it up.

July 29, 2014 7:04 am

At one Utah site CO2 varies by 150ppm between summer and winter.
http://co2.utah.edu/co2tutorial.php?site=7&id=1
Rotting vegetation probably explains the yearly variation … not fossil fuels.
So the cycle we are getting all excited about:
LIA recovery = more vegetation = more CO2 when it rots

PhilCP
July 29, 2014 7:07 am

WUWT should not disappear the article. Instead, we should do what we usually do when a substandard article appears. Rip it to shreds. This is how we distinguish ourselves from the alarmists, who lap up any crap that comes out, regardless of its idiocy.
Anthony’s credibility may take a hit, but this is how science should work.

pokerguy
July 29, 2014 7:21 am

“I don’t think this should disappear from WUWT”
Nor is it in any danger of doing so. Good time to ponder alarmist sites with their penchant for disappearing mistakes, and contrast that with most of the skeptic sites I know about. Who doesn’t make a mistake from time to time, especially on such a high volume site? Kudos Anthony.

OK S.
July 29, 2014 7:22 am

Maybe the poster (one of the paper’s authors) of this comment at Wry Heat could be asked to expand on it and guest-post it here at WUWT for discussion. She, I think, deserves a wider audience after all the publicity.

Russ R.
July 29, 2014 7:30 am

Wow.
I’m really disappointed to see such misinformed “analysis” appear here, but I’m encouraged by the fact that so many commentators have promptly weighed in to correct the errors in understanding.

Pamela Gray
July 29, 2014 7:32 am

The long term proxy CO2 records, combined with current modern measurements confirms that CO2 is a noisy and natural part of long term weather pattern variation processes. Given that planet greening to warm temperature swings has a bit of lag, our current measurements may be pointing to that greening and nothing else. The addition of fossil fuel CO2 in the measurement algorithm is a tiny blip in CO2’s wide, swinging, up and down history. Hell, you can’t even find such a human-sourced CO2 molecule in a flask of captured CO2. You have to calculate that it is there.

DMA
July 29, 2014 7:46 am

Remember the work of Murry Salby? He showed that there is no direct correlation of atmospheric CO2 content to anthropogenic emissions. Further he showed that the atmospheric CO2 content varied as a function of the integral of the global temperature. Then he got sacked an had his work taken away for rocking the boat. I have never found a rational rebuttal to his hypothesis.

AnonyMoose
July 29, 2014 7:50 am

“This post is an embarrassing moment for us sceptics.
As others have mentioned above, this refers to the annual increase in CO2, not the total amount there.”
Not overly embarrassing. I noticed the graph was apparently for annual data although there was no context which indicated that, so I came to the comments to ask. Answered already, many times, by our intelligent participants. Things don’t happen the same in the liberal press.

Greg Goodman
July 29, 2014 8:20 am

Nick Stokes: “Likewise the ocean emits and absorbs 90 Gton/yr. That’s mainly seasonal. Water warms in Spring, and emits. It cools in autumn, and absorbs. It’s been going on for millions of years.”
It is interesting to look at the annual cycle of atm CO2 in the Arctic. For much of the year it matches ice area, not SST. This is probably because a mix of ice & water is had a very stable temperature. The variation in how much CO2 is absorbed and sinks to the abyss is related to the amount of exposed water.
http://climategrog.wordpress.com/?attachment_id=996
Only in the Arctic winter does the temperature relationship seem to appear and flattens off the top of the ice area relationship.

GeeJam
July 29, 2014 8:23 am

Johan says:
July 29, 2014 at 5:40 am
GeeJam, can you please tell us the difference between “CO2 emissions in the atmosphere” and “CO2 concentration in the atmosphere”, and in what units both are measured?
Please accept my apologies to all the regular WUWT posters who already know all the following.
Johan, assuming that you genuinely don’t fully understand the difference between the two; ‘emissions’ represents the man-made contribution of CO2 added to the already naturally occurring amount of CO2. When both are added together, they form the total ‘concentration’. Simple.
As CO2 is much denser than most other atmospheric gas, unfortunately the ‘concentration’ of CO2 is found in the lower 50% to 65% of atmosphere. (By comparison, CO2 is 1.97 lbs per sq metre, whilst Oxygen is 1.43 lbs per square metre).
‘Emissions’ are usually measured in metric tonnes (which regrettably sensationalises the ‘warmist’ melodrama because it is still virtually impossible to weigh up against naturally occurring CO2 tonnage, i.e. accurate measurements of CO2 ‘tonnage’ emitted from a volcano, a naturally decaying corpse, flatulence or even the CO2 produced by natural calcification such as stalactite filled underground caverns. Saying that, should someone admit that globally, large-scale bread manufacture produces 85.5M tonnes of CO2 annually*, then someone might start taxing bread. Man-made CO2 through yeast fermentation and the dry-ice sandblast cleansing of the industrial baking equipment afterwards produces the same amount of annual CO2 ‘emissions’ as 61,122,143 family cars (in contrast, there are 32M cars registered in the UK).
Conversely, total ‘Concentrations of CO2’ are nearly always measured in parts per million (which again adds to the warmist melodrama because ppm sounds vast, i.e. in on 10th May 2013, ‘Global Warming Alarmists’ sensationalised the fact that “During the last 40 years, CO2 levels had increased from 314 parts per million to 400 parts per million. Put in perspective, if they had run the story along the lines of “314 parts per million is 0.0314% of our atmosphere. 400 parts per million is 0.040% of our atmosphere. An insignificant increase of just 0.0086%.”, then I doubt if anyone would be concerned.
I trust I’ve answered your question.
GeeJam
*References: http://www.hydrofarm.com/resources/articles/co2_enrichment.php
*Summary Guide: Almost every culture eats bread. When fermented with yeast nutrient, 1lb (453.59 g) of sugar converts to 0.5 lb of Ethyl Alcohol (C2H5OH) & 0.5lb of CO2. If the average large classic farmhouse loaf uses 23.95g of sugars (some natural within flour and milk), then 453.59 g of sugar produces 18.9 loaves which produce 0.5 lb of CO2. If there are 12M large loaves sold each day in the UK (source: UK Flour Advisory Service), then 140.977 tonnes of man-made CO2 is ‘emitted’ each day – or 51,465 tonnes of CO2 per annum. Based on this, and allowing for just 80% of the world’s current population (7.17B) as bread consumers with the average person consuming 62.5 loaves per annum, results in 85.571 tonnes of CO2 per annum.

PhilCP
July 29, 2014 8:29 am

Here’s a layman’s explanation of the subject at hand: :
Say you have an unused and uncovered outdoor swimming pool. The pool is equipped with a filter circuit and a small drain at the base. The filter pump draws 30gallons/minute out of the pool and returns it to the pool. The water level of your pool is not affected by the filter water.
The drain compensates some added water that comes into the system through rainfall. The water level rises and falls if rainfall is greater or lesser than the average. You’ve checked the water level recently and it was at 280mm. At that level, the drain emptied out 0.1gallons per minute. The drain actually waters nearby plants, resulting in a “greening” of your garden, beyond the normal rainwater.
Now, say you add a hose that adds 1 gallon per minute to the pool. It doesn’t matter that the hose adds only 3% of the pump’s in-and-out flow, the water level will still rise gradually. The water level is now at 400mm.
The more the water level rises, the more the pressure increases on the drain, which then increases its flow out of the pool (say from 0.1 to 0.15gpm). There is still a net increase of water flow of 0.95 gallons/minute into your pool. The flow increase from the drain actually increases the greening of your garden.
If you were to stop the flow of added water into the pool, the water level would gradually drop (owing to the larger drain flow) until the water level reaches 280mm again (for the current assumed rainfall level) and the drain flow drops down to 0.1gpm again (goodbye extra greening)
Note that this does not indicate that 280mm or 400mm is “too high” or “too low” but we do know that the pool’s content can be really high, as it once contained 7m of water (long ago) and it did not burst.

July 29, 2014 8:34 am

Anthony Watts says:
July 29, 2014 at 7:42 am
Anthony:
My kudos to you sir for responding to this error in an honest and open way that these days seems to be totally opposite of the way the CAGW alarmists react when they know that they’re wrong. It is refreshing to see and It serves to reinforce my belief that the truth about the CAGW issue does indeed lie here at your blog.
It is my belief that CAGW alarmists are totally off the mark if they think that they are morally and ethically right these days to engage in lies and the perverse manipulation of science to achieve what they feel is a just and righteous end. Among other things, history teaches us that it is technological advances and improvements that usher in new eras in human history. Thus it will be technological improvements and advancements that will someday usher in a post-fossil fuels world (probably a nuclear powered one among other things) and not CO2 taxes, cap-and-trade-schemes, solar and wind boondoggles, and scientifically bogus climate scare campaigns. A campaign built on lies is one built on quicksand.
Anthony, keep up the great work at this blog. You are worth your weight in gold. Let’s see…gold is around $1300 the ounce right now multiplied by……how much do you weigh Anthony?
REPLY: Thanks. I try not to be like John Cook – Anthony

Greg Goodman
July 29, 2014 8:35 am

DMA says:
Remember the work of Murry Salby? He showed that there is no direct correlation of atmospheric CO2 content to anthropogenic emissions. Further he showed that the atmospheric CO2 content varied as a function of the integral of the global temperature. Then he got sacked an had his work taken away for rocking the boat. I have never found a rational rebuttal to his hypothesis.
===
There’s never been a rebuttal because he never published in a journal nor even on the web. All we have is video. That is neither documentation of his “work” nor something that required rebuttal.
Shame he never follow through. He seemed to have something worth assessing.
Until he does make some proper account of his calculations public, it is incorrect there is no validity in comments of the form “Further he showed that … ” He didn’t. He did a video presentation, a lecture.

DayHay
July 29, 2014 8:40 am

“The level is now 400 ppm, the highest level for 800,000 years. In the absence of any other theories to the contrary, it is reasonable to suppose that the current enhanced CO2 levels are due to human activity.”
Huh? Every time I see a house fire I drive up and sure as hell the fire department is there, so I reasonably suppose that these fires are due to fire department activity.
The Vostok ice core graphs also show a major decline in temps over the holocene, with larger temperature swings as we get closer to present time. It also shows temperature rise preceding CO2 rise. It also shows a metric crap ton of temperature swings, all but ONE of which happened before industry showed up. So why would I be out of line to complain when CO2 attribution is used to artificially raise energy costs and reduce my standard of living? The climate “scare” started with the hippy/greeny anti SUV attitude and went on from there. Now it has morphed into a cosmic money and power grab. Need more science please, less MSM and IPCC.

July 29, 2014 9:01 am

Nick Stokes writes

Every year, it takes about 123 Gtons from the air via photosynthesis. 60 Gtons returns via plant respiration and 60 Gt by decomposition.

That’s not quite true. 99.9% is returned to the atmosphere and 0.01% is burried in sediments which ultimately form rocks. This biological source together with natural weathering is the origin of all the oxygen in the atmosphere. Fossil fuels represent a tiny proportion of all that burried carbon taken from the atmosphere. The carbon cycle in effect acts as a negative feedback on temperature changes over the long term. The current stable CO2 level is about 300 ppm because it maximises radiative heat loss by the atmosphere. This level is maintained because removal of CO2 by weathering is temperature dependent and natural sources return CO2 to the atmosphere through plate tectonics. When eventually mankind stops emitting CO2 then levels will return to this level – at least until the next ice age.

PMHinSC
July 29, 2014 9:03 am

MikeB says:
July 29, 2014 at 4:56 am
“…It is easy to see that, without the human contribution, the natural CO2 sinks on the planet could cope with CO2 naturally produced but when human-made CO2 is included these sinks are overloaded and there is an excess of 11,700 tonnes of CO2 left in the atmosphere each year….”.
Ignoring the fact that due to insufficient data on the carbon cycle the statement that “there is an excess of 11,700 tonnes of CO2 left in the atmosphere each year” is a calculation unsupported by data, that statement assumes, left alone, there is an equilibrium level of CO2 in the atmosphere (presumably 280 ppm). All proxy data I have seen indicated otherwise
(E.G. http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/co2_temperature_historical.png)
The fact that the level of CO2 is rising and that the earth is greening, presumably in response to the increased CO2, also doesn’t support a 280 ppm equilibrium assumption.

Alan Robertson
July 29, 2014 9:10 am

Bernard Lodge says:
July 29, 2014 at 6:50 am
_______________________
Are you attributing the annual Northern Hemisphere change in CO2 concentration solely to temperature change? I didn’t see where you mentioned that the NH biosphere begins thriving in Spring and returns to dormancy each Autumn.

July 29, 2014 9:13 am

Regarding the “right” level of CO2: obviously, there isn’t a per se “right” level. But we do have a planet’s worth of infrastructure that is based on certain assumptions we’ve made about rainfall, temperature, available water supplies and sea level. If those assumptions prove to be incorrect, we will have to do something about it: relocate cities, convert arable land to passive uses and vice versa, and on and on.

David Larsen
July 29, 2014 9:16 am

The joke is, when the earth cools because the sun has gone into remission the greenies will claim it was their action by reducing carbon, even though there is no correlation.