Guest essay by Joseph D’Aleo, CCM
Last month was the hottest June since record keeping began in 1880, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said Monday. It marked the third month in a row that global temperature reached a record high. According to the NOAA data, April and May were also global record-breakers. The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for June 2014 was record high for the month at 16.22 degrees Celsius, or 0.72 degree Celsius above the 20th century average of 15.5 degrees Celsius,’ the NOAA said in its monthly climate report. “This surpasses the previous record, set in 2010, by 0.03 degrees Celsius.”.
Nine of the ten hottest Junes on record have all occurred during the 21st century, including each of the past five years, the U.S. agency said.
However as we have shown here, the warming is all in the questionable adjustments made to the data, with a major cooling of the past and allowance for UHI contamination in recent decades. The all time record highs and days over 90F tell us we have been in a cyclical pattern with 1930s as the warmest decade.
NOAA and NASA (which uses data gathered by NOAA climate center in Asheville) has been commissioned to participate in special climate assessments to support the idealogical and political agenda of the government. From Fiscal Year (FY) 1993 to FY 2013 total US expenditures on climate change amounted to more than $165 Billion. More than $35 Billion is identified as climate science. The White House reported that in FY 2013 the US spent $22.5 Billion on climate change. About $2 Billion went to US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The principal function of the USGCRP is to provide to Congress a National Climate Assessment (NCA). The latest report uses global climate models, which are not validated, therefor speculative, to speculate about regional influences from global warming.
The National Climate Data Center and NASA climate group also control the data that is used to verify these models which is like putting the fox in charge of the hen house. At the very least, their decisions and adjustments may be because they really believe in their models and work to find the warming they show – a form of confirmation bias.
Please note: This is not an indictment of all of NOAA where NWS forecasters do a yeoman’s job providing forecasts and warnings for public safety.
NCEP gathers real time data that is used to run the models. When we take the initial analyses that go into the models and compute monthly anomalies, we get very small departures from normal for the 1981 to 2010 base period on a monthly or year to date basis.
The satellite data from RSS and UAH only available since 1979 also shows no warming for over a decade (two in the RSS data). It needs no adjustments that NOAA claims are required for station and ocean data.
This government manipulation of data may be simply a follow up to the successful manipulation of other government data that has largely escaped heavy public scrutiny.
Over the last 12 months, the CPI has increased 2.1%. Real inflation, using the reporting methodologies in place before 1980, hit an annual rate of 9.6 percent in February, according to the Shadow Government Statistics newsletter. The BLS U6 measure, the total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force is 12.1%.
CPI is used to adjust social security benefits and military pay and to a large degree as one factor in industry wages. if you are feeling you are falling behind, it is because the real costs of goods and services have risen more than any income or benefits you receive. That is why the GDP actually fell early this year – between the high cost of energy and food, the discretionary income for spending retail and in restaurants fell.
Unemployment fell to 6.1% according to the government but the real unemployment is much higher. Inflation, using the reporting methodologies in place before 1980, hit an annual rate of 9.6 percent in February, according to the Shadow Government Statistics newsletter. Using the employment-population ratio, the percentage of working age Americans that actually have a job has been below 59 percent for more than four years in a row. That means that more than 41 percent of all working age Americans do not have a job.
The sad news is if NOAA keeps providing the government with tainted data to justify its EPA assault on our country’s only reliable energy sources, inflation will skyrocket and unemployment will follow.
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Even though I’m “conservative” in my political leanings, I will point out …in this regard –
“Yes, 41% of the “working age” population is not working. But that calculation includes my mother, who is in her high 80′s, and every other aged retired person in the U.S. who isn’t institutionalized.
The 41% converts into the so-called 90+ million working age Americans who are without a job, an equally senseless metric that has gained popularity only recently. Let’s stick to numbers that make sense. They’re bad enough to make the point that the economy has performed miserably the past five years.”
This comment is “spot on”. What we have here is a “serious failure to communicate”. CHECK THE CIA FACT BOOK. Sweden has about 37% of their total working age adult population (18 to 65 ) working.
If you include the children, it means that 27% (or about 3.5 million) of the PEOPLE (dogs don’t work) in Sweden support the other 73%
It is actually an incredible statistic that at 59% of working age adults ARE working in the USA.
That translates to 59/37 = > 160% of Sweden’s number. WE ARE AN INCREDIBLY DRIVEN SOCIETY WITH PEOPLE WILLING TO WORK AND WORKING!
So, yes, I find the current “ruling elite” on the east coast, reprehensible, and damaging. But they will “fade”, and the dynamic of this country will win out. To quote Adam Clayton Powell (who, by the way, supported Richard Nixon against Kennedy, because he knew both men, and he personally “liked” RMN, …indicating he wasn’t a robot party loyalist..) “Keep the FAITH BABY!” Congressman Powell, you really did say something profound with that.
ren says:
July 28, 2014 at 6:50 am
The truth is that the heat is pushed to far to the north. Due to changes in ozone (solar activity) during the winter in the north will be reverse swing.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Maybe but look what is just beyond their coverage.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
Unisys – very nice maps but the repeating colour scheme is a bit confusing, Maybe I need to look at it some more.
Odd that “Iceberg Alley” around Newfoundland shows a warm anomaly, maybe the ice melt went into that cool pool to the east. Thing is, there are still icebergs breaking up put there …
The WoodForTrees Index (WFTI) should be the standard. It simply averages the 4 main temp indexes. So, biases or drifts in one data set has minimal impact.
The WFTI is not near a high and is flat since Dec 2000.
Skeptics are also guilty by cherry-picking their favorite index (right now UAH) and saying the “earth hasn’t warmed in 17 3/4 years”. True …but the more robust WFTI puts that figure at 13+ years instead of 17+.
WFTI data is here…
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/wti/from:2004/to:2014/plot/wti/from:2004/to:2014/trend
And just to muddy things a bit more… How secure is NOAA data?
http://touch.nextgov.com/nextgov/#!/entry/hacker-breached-noaa-satellite-data-from-contractors-pc,53d658eee56d0bb85364490a
“As I have blogged about before, there is a correlation between the SSM/I cloud water and the CERES net radiative flux variations, so the recent elevated cloud water amounts lead to less sunlight entering the oceans, which is consistent with the recent hiatus in warming.”
http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/SSMI-cloud-water-thru-Jun14.png
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/07/june-2014-update-of-ssmi-ocean-products/
Since NOAA is now politically driven to comply with demands of its Master in the White House, then, no, I do not believe anything it says.
Wayne Delbeke
Daily mean temperatures for the Arctic area north of the 80th northern.
NOAA forecast highs are now consistently 5 to 10 degrees higher than reality for where I live, and have been for the past four months. I use weatherspark.com’s Dashboard (visual) to check for rain. I can choose the Norwegian Meterological Institute database as well, and it is always closer to what it is.
So the reaction to a record warm (if only slightly) monthly report from one of the major global temperature recording organisations is …”data manipulation”.
Yet when we see cold months reported – just about anywhere, anytime by anyone – we don’t hear those accusations of data manipulation – because such reports fit the sceptic narrative.
“Should you trust NOAA claims about May and June records?” is a poorly written article with no serious evidence to back up the headline. It is cherry picking of the worst order and uses irrelevant comparisons with economic data.
Joe D’Aleo, the artificially high price of gas is the culprit. No different than what happened in the last half of the 70s. The price of gas affects everything from the cost of food to transportation, and everything we’re not buying (able to afford) because we need to pay to get to work (outside of subway/bike-friendly cities).
High unemployment means no income, therefore no spending, therefore no sales. Prices fall during times of high unemployment. Unless there is a cost price reason. Right now, inflation according to FRED is under target, under 2%. It’s the price of oil that’s causing any inflationary bump. And this administration is doing exactly ZIP about it.
You obviously are unaware of the discussions on this for the past few months by people using the official databases, and comparing them with data downloaded and preserved from the same sources over the past two decades. This article is not a heads-up. It is one of many.
James Abbott
http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_June_2014_v5.png
Inflation rate of 9.6 sounds like a fantasy. I don’t trust anybody’s numbers.
“The sad news is if NOAA keeps providing the government with tainted data to justify its EPA assault on our country’s only reliable energy sources, inflation will skyrocket and unemployment will follow.”
Even sadder is green progressives have several women with very large chances of being the next POTUS. Conservatives have only a mention or two of ladies to be VP choices. Nobody else has a woman contender… and it’s getting later in the game all the time. I could be wrong but the next POTUS will probably be a woman.
James Abbott says:
Yet when we see cold months reported – just about anywhere, anytime by anyone – we don’t hear those accusations of data manipulation – because such reports fit the sceptic narrative.
That is the point: cold months are under-reported! And that is the data manipulation. You cannot see what everyone else here sees.
JAMES ABBOTT
“Yet when we see cold months reported ”
I rarely see any cold temperatures reported or highlighted like the warm ones are by NOAA. Have you?
Richard Greene says:
July 28, 2014 at 8:20 am
The comments on unemployment data are not relevant, are misleading, and distract from the useful information on temperature adjustments.
The employment data comments were intended to scare people into not trusting their government, but are a bad example — if employment data were the ONLY thing you knew about the US government, then you would be inclined to trust the government.
Yes, there are an unusually large percentage of people not officially in the labor force.
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No need to guess, unless you don’t trust the government stats:
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
All the numbers you could want.
yam says:
July 28, 2014 at 5:24 am
The TTFI (Things That Flower Index) says otherwise here in southern New York. Flowering is much belated this year.
____
Is this a real index or just a bit of whimsy? An index of plants’ growth phases could provide a really accurate guide to temperature trends, better even than satellites. On the other hand there would be ample opportunity for mischief in keeping a formal index.
(I searched for TTFI and got the Table Tennis Federation of India.)
pokerguy says:
July 28, 2014 at 9:55 am
nflation rate of 9.6 sounds like a fantasy. I don’t trust anybody’s numbers.
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I trust my wallet. In the last 8+/- years, fuel has doubled, milk has nearly doubled, my ice cream has gone from $2.79 a half gallon to $6.79 for now three pints and no matter how much I cut back, electricity keeps going up. The game is that if you downsize a product, but keep the price where it was previously, there is no inflation to mention. The inflation “basket” leaves out many volatile items, energy being the major deletion. I can’t post any real stats; only observations. I do know that in my particular case, I have less liquidity every year over the previous and 9.6% is not out of the realm of possibility.
I remember that 60 years ago the price of a subway ride in NYC was a dime. The last I’ve read (I’ve moved) it’s over $1.50.
Richard Green: maybe you should know what you are talking about before opening mouth.
The greens do not give a shite about the fact that out of 200 countries in the world, America is one of only 7 misguided and English speaking countries (wonder why english speakers are so stupid?) that puts a dangerous neurotoxin in the drinking water ( see Lancet, The Great Fluoride Deception). The Greens and Leftists have ignored the issue for 60 years. They put out propaganda accusing anyone who mentions fluoride of being a John Bircher. Fluoride has been proven to lower the iQ’s of infants and children. It’s time for Amerians to wake up. Israel’s Supreme Court just prohibited fluordation as criminally dangerous medicating of a population without asking them permission. No wonder so many conditions like ADD after 60 years of brain poisoning.
James Abbott says:
So the reaction to a record warm (if only slightly) monthly report from one of the major global temperature recording organisations is …”data manipulation”.
James, if you really believe there is not data manipulation going on, then you are totally credulous and not worth engaging.
The working age is generally considered to be ages 20-65. Unless you’re making up your own definitions or you unintentionally misstated your mother’s age, then your mother is well past the working age.
it continues to baffle me that NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) uses ground-based stations and not satellite data to compute global atmospheric temperatures… There’s nothing Aeronautic or Space in that.. Ask anybody if they know what method NASA uses and most will say they think NASA uses satellites… “buzzzzzz, wrong”.
John ABBOTT
If you had access to this data as NOAA does . what would you be telling the public ? Would you be telling the public there is a major global warming problem in United States and use the JUNE data as an example .. Or would you alert the public that there has been a climate trend taking place the last 16-17 years toward declining temperatures generally and almost during every season except the summer and especially would you warn the public about the significant winter cooling that is happening? To me it is not so much what they are telling us or manipulating but what they should tell us but are not telling us . The public is watching this and see that there is a disconnect between what NOAA is telling and what they are experiencing . The past winter was a perfect example
WINTER (-1.79 F/DECADE) – DECLINING
DEC -1.22 F/decade (declining)
JAN -1.52 F (declining)
FEB -2.77 F (declining)
SPRING (-0.06 F/DECADE)- DECLINING
MAR +0.57 F (rising) but.dropped 10 degrees F since 2012 alone
APR -0.28 F (declining)
MAY -0.47 F (declining)
SUMMER (+0.48 F/ DECADE)-RISING
JUN +1.02 F( rising)
JUL +0.25 F (rising)
AUG -0.01 F( flat)
FALL( -0.44 F/DECADE)-DECLINING
SEPT +0.06 F (flat)
OCT -0.61 F (declining)
NOV -0.76 F (declining)
ANNUAL(-0.36 F/DECADE)-DECLINING