Guest essay by Joseph D’Aleo, CCM
Last month was the hottest June since record keeping began in 1880, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said Monday. It marked the third month in a row that global temperature reached a record high. According to the NOAA data, April and May were also global record-breakers. The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for June 2014 was record high for the month at 16.22 degrees Celsius, or 0.72 degree Celsius above the 20th century average of 15.5 degrees Celsius,’ the NOAA said in its monthly climate report. “This surpasses the previous record, set in 2010, by 0.03 degrees Celsius.”.
Nine of the ten hottest Junes on record have all occurred during the 21st century, including each of the past five years, the U.S. agency said.
![201406[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/2014061.gif)
However as we have shown here, the warming is all in the questionable adjustments made to the data, with a major cooling of the past and allowance for UHI contamination in recent decades. The all time record highs and days over 90F tell us we have been in a cyclical pattern with 1930s as the warmest decade.
![screenhunter_1225-jul-22-08-14[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/screenhunter_1225-jul-22-08-141.gif)
NOAA and NASA (which uses data gathered by NOAA climate center in Asheville) has been commissioned to participate in special climate assessments to support the idealogical and political agenda of the government. From Fiscal Year (FY) 1993 to FY 2013 total US expenditures on climate change amounted to more than $165 Billion. More than $35 Billion is identified as climate science. The White House reported that in FY 2013 the US spent $22.5 Billion on climate change. About $2 Billion went to US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The principal function of the USGCRP is to provide to Congress a National Climate Assessment (NCA). The latest report uses global climate models, which are not validated, therefor speculative, to speculate about regional influences from global warming.
The National Climate Data Center and NASA climate group also control the data that is used to verify these models which is like putting the fox in charge of the hen house. At the very least, their decisions and adjustments may be because they really believe in their models and work to find the warming they show – a form of confirmation bias.
Please note: This is not an indictment of all of NOAA where NWS forecasters do a yeoman’s job providing forecasts and warnings for public safety.
NCEP gathers real time data that is used to run the models. When we take the initial analyses that go into the models and compute monthly anomalies, we get very small departures from normal for the 1981 to 2010 base period on a monthly or year to date basis.
![ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_062014[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_0620141.png?quality=75)
![Screen_shot_2014-07-21_at_11.38.43_PM[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/screen_shot_2014-07-21_at_11-38-43_pm1.png?quality=75)
![ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_ytd_%281%29[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_ytd_281291.png?quality=75)
![cfsr_t2m_2005[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/cfsr_t2m_20051.png?quality=75)
The satellite data from RSS and UAH only available since 1979 also shows no warming for over a decade (two in the RSS data). It needs no adjustments that NOAA claims are required for station and ocean data.
![Screen_shot_2014-07-16_at_10.47.07_AM[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/screen_shot_2014-07-16_at_10-47-07_am1.png?quality=75)
This government manipulation of data may be simply a follow up to the successful manipulation of other government data that has largely escaped heavy public scrutiny.
Over the last 12 months, the CPI has increased 2.1%. Real inflation, using the reporting methodologies in place before 1980, hit an annual rate of 9.6 percent in February, according to the Shadow Government Statistics newsletter. The BLS U6 measure, the total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force is 12.1%.
CPI is used to adjust social security benefits and military pay and to a large degree as one factor in industry wages. if you are feeling you are falling behind, it is because the real costs of goods and services have risen more than any income or benefits you receive. That is why the GDP actually fell early this year – between the high cost of energy and food, the discretionary income for spending retail and in restaurants fell.
Unemployment fell to 6.1% according to the government but the real unemployment is much higher. Inflation, using the reporting methodologies in place before 1980, hit an annual rate of 9.6 percent in February, according to the Shadow Government Statistics newsletter. Using the employment-population ratio, the percentage of working age Americans that actually have a job has been below 59 percent for more than four years in a row. That means that more than 41 percent of all working age Americans do not have a job.
The sad news is if NOAA keeps providing the government with tainted data to justify its EPA assault on our country’s only reliable energy sources, inflation will skyrocket and unemployment will follow.
Since Unisys stopped publishing their sst and ssta charts, I had to switch to other sources. I now look at the daily NOAA, Weather Zone, and Tropical Tidbits ssta maps. This has been educational. Tropical Tidbits and Weather Zone are the best of the group. NOAA uses too much red and the oceans are ablaze with the overwhelming red. The other two sources have great resolution as compared to the NOAA data. NOAA shows the oceans anomalies as being warmer than either of the other sources. Then with their heavy handed use of red, which overwhelms the eye, detail in the oceans is obscured and set ablaze.
Unisys has started producing ssta info again, hat tip to ren. The main reason why I liked Unisys so much is that they use a borderless east /west on their chart, so that I can tile the pic onto my desktop and see a seamless picture of the globe. Unisys does not have the higher resolution of Weather Zone or Tropical Tidbits, though.
No
And politics are to blame-in 2014 everything is political. Political lies.
I am really, really tired of them fudging the numbers and lying to me about the temperature.
So, no, I do not trust a US government agency to tell me what the real temperature actually is.
Sorry.
http://www.sat24.com/world.aspx
If it shows anything other than cooler than usual for the Southeastern US, it’s gotta be wrong.
*unusual
*usual
This is the winter in the south.
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/atmosphere/radbud/gs19_prd.gif
Whether one should trust the possible June 2014 record temperatures is not a big issue in my opinion . An isolated monthly record in one season only is not significant in a background of declining global temperatures even if the temperature was correct .
Annual Contiguous US temperatures have been declining at (-0.36 F/DECADE) since 1998. This is happening in 7 of the 9 climate regions in United States. Only the Northeast and the West both of which receive the moderating effect of the oceans, had slight warming trend of 0.2 and 0.3 F/decade respectively. Theses 16 year annual temperature declines illustrate that despite any summer warming , the cooling during winter , spring and fall offsets any summer warming resulting in the annual temperature declines . It shows that the problem is not global warming at all but global cooling. The rate of winter cooling is 3.7 times greater than the rate of summer warming, clearly showing that the years are cooling more than they are warming.
Winter temperatures in United States have had a cooling trend for 17 years at about -1.78 F/ decade according to NCDC/NOAA, CLIMATE AT A GLANCE data. In United States, 8 out 12 months of the year are cooling. Only March, June and July are still warming
The winter temperatures in United States were colder in every region except the West and the long term trend since 1998 is that winters are getting colder. Overall, for United States the past winter was the 34th coldest since 1895. North America is experiencing a cold cycle currently like they had 1895-1920 and again 1955-1979 and hence I see this cooler pattern to continue for several decades. These events have nothing to do with global warming or man’s influence.
Not only have winters been getting cooler since 1998 in Contiguous US [48 states] and Canada, but winters have been getting colder for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole and for the Globe as a whole. Global Annual land temperature trend has been declining since 2005 at- 0.6C/decade. Winter global land temperatures have been declining at -0.2C /decade. Northern Hemisphere winter temperature trend has been declining at -0.34C/decade.
Why are winter temperatures so important? Because very cold winters lead to cold spring and cold summers and lower the annual temperature as we are seeing this year. This has led to 17 year pause in the rise of global temperatures and will lead to 2-3 decades more of colder global temperatures due to cooling ocean cycles and currents
Since there is no global temperature, I can’t trust this article either, it seems.
before i read anything other than the first part on the first page…….0.03 higher?????we do NOT have instruments capable of that much accuracy in arriving at a single number and calling it the earths temperature…..the confounders among the gathering devices would cause a LARGE margin of error alone…….they are making ridiculous claims that science does NOT BACK on any level.
@ur momisugly herkimer – “Whether one should trust the possible June 2014 record temperatures is not a big issue in my opinion .”
It’s a huge issue
1) Apparently the NOAA (and others) have got the orders to end the pause. If NOAA claims 2014 is the hottest year ever, all we will hear in the press is how the pause is over and how the skeptics were wrong and how they are justified for needing more $$$$$.
2) If they are manipulating the temps now, they will continue to do so in the future. We can return to Little Ice ages temps and it won’t matter, they will just “make the” data show the world is still heating up and make us continue to brake more & more heat records.
Gary Pearse says:
July 28, 2014 at 6:30 am
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I also noticed the scent of fall in the air this last week. It had been very hot here in Northern California prior to that. Now the evenings have started cooling down below 60 F again. The heat is broken.
It’s obvious we can’t trust them by the clear biases they exhibit and the constant propaganda in their press releases. I mean, why else would we mistrust and even doubt the competency of the agency that tells us last summer was going to be a very active hurricane season or that last winter was going to be mild?
Yes, government collected and generated statistics are subject to political manipulation. I think most people would agree that such manipulation is increasing, for example double booking at the VA. The BLS uses sampling methodology for its birth/death model to make seasonal adjustments, etc., and then there is the exclusion of energy and food prices from core CPI. D’Aleo raising such issues has some validity.
The comments on unemployment data are not relevant, are misleading, and distract from the useful information on temperature adjustments.
The employment data comments were intended to scare people into not trusting their government, but are a bad example — if employment data were the ONLY thing you knew about the US government, then you would be inclined to trust the government.
Yes, there are an unusually large percentage of people not officially in the labor force.
The data do not try to hide that.
Yes, total employment including self-employed today is still lower than in November 2007 just before the recession began — the data dow not try to hide that either.
We have been in the weakest rebound from a recession in American history.
In comparison, the 1929 recession was followed by the strongest rebound ever — it lasted four years before another recession started, with Real GDP averaging over +10% a year for those four years (compared with an anemic +1.6%/year average Real GDP growth since 4Q 2008).
My primary interest is economics, but I researched and wrote an article about global warming in my last ECONOMIC LOGIC newsletter.
Based on my research, more CO2 in the air is good news for green plants and agriculture, as most greenhouse owners already know.
Warming is also good news, especially if it is mainly over the northern half of the Northern Hemisphere during winter nights, as measured by satellites since 1979.
And only a liar would focus on surface temperatures in the post 1978-era of weather satellites, since surface measurements are inaccurate, non-global, frequently “adjusted”, and 1800s-era thermometers consistently read low.
The fact that “climate astrologers” (AKA warmists, or science deniers) love surface data, and often pretend weather balloons and weather satellites don’t exist, is simple: They can’t repeatedly “adjust” 1930s data to be cooler because there were no satellites in the 1930s!
The frequently changing methodologies used to measure sea temperature in the past century could not possibly be accurate — some sailor throwing a bucket in the water and sticking a thermometer in the bucket is accurate?
The real debate should be why data from the various satellites don’t match, whether or not their data are accurate enough to estimate the average surface temperature, and whether the average surface temperature would be a meaningful statistic if the data were accurate.
It’s hard for me to demonize CO2 after finding out that several glaciations took place with up to 20X more CO2 in the air than today — there is obviously no CO2 – average temperature correlation in Earth’s history.
If logic and accurate data from excellent websites such as this one eventually “ruin” the global warming “crisis”, the leftists will simply invent another “crisis” that will require — surprise, surprise — that everyone does exactly as they say without question.
For 50 years the “greens” have predicted one environmental catastrophe after another to get attention, funding, and tell everyone else how to live.
They previously predicted catastrophes from fluoride, DDT, topsoil loss, AIDS, peak oil, ozone holes, SARS, mad cow disease, acid rain, ocean acidification, and even silicone breast implants.
Every prediction has been wrong.
People who only read headlines must think that the average temperature is just zooming up. Yet there has been no average warming at all in the lifetime of young people now entering university.
Please ditch the Shadowstats nonsense, it weakens your argument. Accepting the Shadowstats methodology, the current CPI would be something over 800, (meaning prices are 8x the 1980 level) rather than the low 200s in the official figures. Having started my working life at the begining of that period, I can assure you the idea that the government has somehow underreported inflation by a factor of 4 is absurd. You can’t maintain a steady bias in a stat that compunds without it becoming painfully obvious over a 30+ year time period, particularly not 5% a year.
What the Shadowstats data shows is the the pre-1980 methodology was clearly flawed. Not exactly the analogy I think you mean to make.
ONLY FOOLS “trust” government that is the basic concept of the founders of this nation……..the “eternal vigilance” required for liberty is watching the GOVERNMENT……they considered government a necessary EVIL.
What is “90 degree days”? Is it days with max temperatures of 90 deg? Days with temps in the 90s? Days with high temps in the 90s? All days with temps of at least 90 deg? I see the text, but is that the imputed definition, or the actual definition from the creator of the graph?
from memory gasoline was less than a dollar a gallon in 1980 so indeed on that item inflation has been 4 times that price……..in fact i paid less than a dollar a gallon when we first moved to bama in 1989.
If I presented a chart showing the S&P 500 stock market average starting just after the March 2009 bull market began, through today, I could point to that chart and claim “stock prices ALWAYS go up!”!
Of course a smart investor would realize my chart only presented one bull market portion of a total bull + bear market cycle — so my claim was meaningless.
Similarly, compiling averages of surface temperature measurements began AFTER a warming trend started in the mid-1800s.
It is NORMAL to expect new highs during this “bull market” of the average temperature.
That doesn’t mean the “bull market” of rising average temperatures will continue forever (in fact, the” bull market” may have already ended a decade ago when the rising average temperature trend “paused”).
It’s true average temperature is not a “market”, but this subject is certainly full of bull (not at this website, of course).
Herkimer specifically and to the point. Congratulations.
qam1 says:
@ur momisugly herkimer – “Whether one should trust the possible June 2014 record temperatures is not a big issue in my opinion .”
It’s a huge issue
I see your point but I think that they just get more publicity for their news clipping if we focus on the credibility issue only .In my opinion we should also point out more the insignificance of this warm June temperature and not just any possible incorrectness . NOAA are the first to say that we need a thirty year period to demonstrate global warming trends . One month in one season is not earth shattering nor indicative of global warming trend when the background trend over the last 17 years is one of no warming at all and where any summer warming is much less than the impact of steady winter , spring and fall cooling as we see in North America and especially in United States . It is like focusing on a warm day in the middle of a cold winter . It is nice when we have it but not at indicative of any long term warming. They are grasping at straws