As many readers know, there was quite a hullaballo over the Kaya Identity last week, two posts by Willis Eschenbach here and here created sides seemingly equally split on whether the equation is useful or not.
One of the most strident critics was Dr. Roger Pielke Jr., and in the spirit of keeping an open mind on the issue, I offered him space on WUWT. Here is my email and his response, reprinted with his explicit permission.
On Mon, Jul 14, 2014 at 9:52 AM, Anthony xxxxxxx@xxxx.com wrote:
Hello, Roger Jr.,
I’d like to direct you to a comment on WUWT that challenges your calculations using the Kaya Identity.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/12/the-beer-identity/#comment-1685623
I provide it only for your information.
I know both of you have issues with the current state of discussion on WUWT regarding that equation/identity/relationship, and I’m certainly OK with that.
I think that much of the dissent over it has to do with the difference in viewpoints between science and engineering. I and many others look at the Kaya identity equation more from the engineering perspective, and expect it to perform as many other calcs do, but it seems that it doesn’t act as a hard equation, but more like a soft one, that generally defines the relationships of terms. A number of commenters have approached it from the engineering viewpoint, and find themselves puzzled as to why the numbers they get don’t seem sensible.
I puzzle over that also.
To that end, and because you’ve been highly critical, agreeing with such statements as “breathtakingly ignorant”, therefore, given the critical comment above, I’d like to offer this, first raised in another comment:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/12/the-beer-identity/#comment-1684325
Perhaps Anthony could give equal time to Pielke in defense of the Kaya identity?
I’m more than happy to do so should you be so inclined; not just for my own education on the topic, but for the hundreds, if not thousands of others that suffer from the same doubts that the equation isn’t as well thought out as some claim it to be. Or, if it was never intended to produce real world numbers accurately, but serves only to illustrate the relationship of the variables, explain that clearly so that the engineering types understand it better.
If you wish to make a submission, MS Word with embedded images works best. Any equations you might want to use in MS word’s equation editor don’t translate to WordPress well, so they will be converted to images. Or, you can optionally use LaTex, which is supported directly in WordPress.
I would appreciate an answer, no matter if it is a yes or a no. Thank you for your consideration.
Anthony Watts
=========================================================
Roger’s response Tuesday, July 15, 2014 6:59 AM (published with permission)
Hi Anthony-
Thanks for your email. Apologies for the delay in responding, as have been off email while traveling.
If you’d like to help your readers better understand the use of the Kaya identity, which I think is the most important tool for analyzing actual and proposed carbon policies, then I would recommend that you introduce them to this paper (open access);
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/4/2/024010
The mathematics are simple. Of course, there is a more in depth discussion in my book, The Climate Fix.
Finally, for those who’d prefer a lecture format, here is me at Columbia Univ last summer explaining the significance of the Kaya Identity for climate policy analysis:
Thanks, and all the best,
Roger (Jr.)
==============================================================
I agree with Roger that: “The mathematics are simple.”
In fact I think it is that simplicity that lends itself to being criticized as not being fully representative of a complex system. Willis described the Kaya Identity as being “trivially true” while Roger in his book and video treats its with the same respect as some physical law equation. My take is that the truth is somewhere in the middle between those viewpoints.
Whether it is best used as a political tool or as a physical science tool is still an open question in my mind, though I tend to think it leans more towards political usefulness. Whatever your viewpoint is, let’s thank Roger Pielke Jr. for taking the time to respond and to offer his view here.
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RobertInAz:
Your post at July 19, 2014 at 9:21 am says in total
“Kaya reflects real world data …”. Reflects?
“It is relevant to policy making …”?
QED
Richard
Thank you Dr Pielke jr.
I tend to share the characterization by Pielke jr on what is called the Kaya Identity.
A thought: if the so-called Thermodynamic Identity*** is an identity in the same sense as the so-called Kaya Identity is an identity, then the Kaya Identity could be as potentially useful as the Thermodynamic Identity. I think there is little doubt about the usefulness of the Thermodynamic Identity.
*** Thermodynamic Identity*** => google it for a definition of it; it is a well discussed / documented concept.
John
Mark Stoval (@MarkStoval) says: July 19, 2014 at 9:43 am
“nor can you just pick any value you want for x and y if y is the dependent variable and x is the independent variable.”
To begin with, I never mentioned functions, you did. Secondly, y = x is a function, but it is also an equation (or do you disagree with that?). And no, you cannot pick any value you want for y and x, because it’s an equation but not an identity (it’s completely irrelevant that y = x also happens to be a function). Now, this may surprise you, but x^2 + y^2 = r^2 is an equation, but it is NOT a function. Still, it is obviously not an identity either, unless 3^2 + 4^2 = (whatever)^2.
You also say: “I still find no reason to equate Dr. Pielke’s work with that “proof”.”
How many times do I have to tell you this, I was not attacking Pielke but ridiculing one of the commenters.
And as for the relevance to Pielke. Pielke is using F = P*g*e*f, where F, P, g. e and f are variables. And for anyone who has more than 2 brain cells left, F = P*g*e*f is an equation, not an identity.
And now I’m out of the loony bin. Enough is enough !
I was not attacking Pielke but ridiculing one of the commenters.
You may have thought you were doing that, but to me that was not the apparent intent. I will take you at your word.
RobertInAz:
Yes. If you argue CO2 emissions don’t matter then Kaya is irrelevant to your argument.
Agree. The Kaya Identity helped Pielke memorably demonstrate that the UK cut their CO2 emissions primarily by making the nation poorer, not by filling the countryside with wind turbines.
ferdberple:
Pielke seems to be saying “give up your Soviet-style xx-year emissions targets and concentrate on developing low-cost, low-impact, low-carbon energy.” I’m not sure he wants governments to get out of the way, but he’s doing a good job showing what should be obvious to everyone by now: current governments are not just dysfunctional, they’re misanthropic.
Catcracking says: July 19, 2014 at 9:48 am
“Think about it. Who has the largest footprint in the world? ”
The answer could be Barak Obama. He has a large house, a huge jet (which he uses often) and a very large support staff.
I have mixed feelings about Pielke Jr. Unlike his father, he is not a physical scientist but he seems to buy the AWG story lock-stock-and barrel. He appears to be genuine, but I instinctively find anyone to be naive who voted for Obama, not once, but twice, and is still proud of it.
Thanks for the link to the Ruth Dixon blog. I particularly liked this graph:
http://mygardenpond.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/figure-4-infographic-bubble-chart-per-capita.png
(source:
http://geodata.grid.unep.ch/extras/posters.php#infographics_posters_bubble_charts
other charts there are worth a look too)
My conclusion from this series of posts: If you want to improve quality of life, and I do, improve the economics. If that means increasing CO2, tough noogies, as someone we know would say.
I see the former ardent defenders of the utility of this Kaya Identity, are finally acknowledging its actual usefulness, as a tool of committee.
But hey, maybe we can go 500 comments on this too..
The official orchestrated hysteria toward carbon dioxide emission from the activities of mankind, as demonstrated by the IPCC and endless national bureaucracies, arose due to pseudo science and pretentious claims of scientific evidence that CO2 causes Global Warming.
The work of committees, created and controlled by the likes of Canada’s Liberals, so we should look for truth and actual science in the creation of people who openly stated ; “Who cares if its true.. it works for us..”Like our past Minister of the Environment?
The trouble with at least the GDP/Population ratio is that it doesn’t work as a simple linear ratio for policy (or perhaps any other) purpose. If you increase population in a productive economy (Western-type) the GDP normally grows faster than the population. US per capita GDP in 1869 was $2,013 (in 2000 dollar value) and in 2005 it was $37,600.
http://isites.harvard.edu/fs/docs/icb.topic448946.files/lecture_facts_growth.pdf
The population increased from~ 38M to 310M in this period (about 8 times). The GDP on the other hand grew by 150,000 times from $76.5B to $11.7T. Now, I get it. The greens formula is for a dictatorship or commie economy.
Johan said at 8:08 am: “Now, of course, there is a proof that says 2 = 1”. However I’m afraid all your example actually proved was that 2*0 = 1*0 (as does every integer multiplied by zero). It did not actually give any conclusion that was fallacious: the algebra was simply wrong.
And I personally think that saying that A/B * B/C * C/A = 1 (which of course is trivially true so long as none of A, B or C are zero) can produce useful conclusions, so long as considered in proper context.
“And now I’m out of the loony bin. Enough is enough !”
We’re not in Kansas anymore, but how do we get back?
All (almost) of the discussion of the mathematics of Kaya misses the most important point.
The “Kaya Identity” is NOT mathematics, it is statistics. If you plug in the real world numbers you will see that it is not exact, it is an approximation, it has an implicit error term. The discussion should be about how well this equation fits reality or doesn’t.
It can just as well be used to show that reducing CO2 is ~a sideshow; it’s the path to insanity~
So that’s what the “thermodynamic identity” is? I’ve applied it for over thirty years in real power plant performance analysis, it describes what happens to the steam energy flowing through a real steam turbine’s bade path. I don’t think the Kanye equation has a similar, real, physical, application.
Why bother with carbon dioxide levels if carbon dioxide does not warm the world? Have you guys forgotten that there is no greenhouse warming caused by carbon dioxide today and there has been none for the last 17 years? Are you aware that for 17 years the greenhouse theory of Arrhenius has been predicting warming but nothing has happened? If your theory predicts warming and nothing happens for 17 years you as a scientist have no choice but to dump it into the waste basket of history. There is a place waiting for it right next to phlogiston, another failed theory of heat. I cannot understand how anybody calling himself a scientist does not understand the basics of how laws of nature operate. Cessation of warming for 17 years is not a frivolous hiatus but tells us that laws of nature are at work. You cannot turn these laws on or off at will. If there has been no greenhouse warming for 17 years there has been no greenhouse warming at all, period. In case you are wondering what to do without the comfort of the Arrhenius theory, there is another greenhouse theory called the Miskolczi greenhouse theory or MGT that does explain what is happening. It predicts exactly what we see: no warming despite an abundance of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. To understand this requires knowledge of what the greenhouse gases are doing that prevents their absorption of IR from showing up as warming. What is happening is that there are several greenhouse gases in the air that simultaneously absorb in the infrared. Arrhenius theory can only handle one of them, carbon dioxide in this case. But carbon dioxide is not even the most important greenhouse gas, water vapor is, and their cooperation is what we need to understand. Arrhenius fails at this but MGT is cap[able of handling the more general case of several GHGs simultaneously absorbing in the IR. In such a case the gases involved create a joint optimum absorption window whose optical thickness they control. The gases that count in the earth atmosphere are water vapor and carbon dioxide. Their joint optimum absorption window has a fixed IR optical thickness of 1.87, determined by Miskolczi from first principles. If you now add carbon dioxide to the atmosphere it will start to absorb in the IR, just as the Arrhenius theory tells us. But as soon as this happens, water vapor present will begin to diminish, rain out, and the original optical thickness of their absorption window is thereby restored. Absorption by the introduced carbon dioxide is still active of course but its warming effect is just balanced by the reduction of atmospheric water vapor that is happening simultaneously. This has been going on for the last 17 years and explains the absence of warming today. If rising carbon dioxide did not cause any warming for 17 years laws of nature tell us that it never has caused any warming at all. Any alleged greenhouse warming that happened before this time is nothing more than natural warming, misidentified by ober-eager climate scientists anxious to prove that greenhouse effect is real. Clearly any claims that adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere causes anthropogenic global warming or AGW have to be nullified. And with it, alarmist demands for mitigation and emission control become irrational irrelevances, wasting public resources, and must be stopped immediately to curtail any further waste.
The Kayla identity obviously makes the assumption that CO2 production is directly proportional to GDP, so substituting a different factor like beer producion is an apples and oranges situation.
I’m trying to reconcile these two comments:
john robertson says: July 19, 2014 at 10:46 am
“I see the former ardent defenders of the utility of this Kaya Identity, are finally acknowledging its actual usefulness, as a tool of committee.”
nutso fasst says: July 19, 2014 at 10:36 am
“Agree. The Kaya Identity helped Pielke memorably demonstrate that the UK cut their CO2 emissions primarily by making the nation poorer, not by filling the countryside with wind turbines.”
i learn best by doing – second best by watching someone else do – i read Pielke’s paper mentioned above (http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/4/2/024010) – and came away enlightened – and slightly embarrassed
while i thought of Kaya as a engine to generate the lefthand side – Piekle used the equation to examine the righthand side factors – concluding that the GDP effect of the Climate Change Act was too precipitious – so in a limited fashion – Kaya does give us the cost of certain changes
i had been bothered by the use of raw Population & GDP numbers – thinking that they might be refined – but their use is close enuf for government work – and government work is what Kaya is intended for – and greenie influenced policy makers are usually interested in not adversely affecting the population numbers or gdp – and much more interested in energy efficiency in terms of co2 emissions
unfortunately – the numbers plugged into the factors are assumptions calculated outside the equation – and Kaya is not intended to evaluate those assumptions – and the technological factors are fronts in the great global warming war
if an opponent were to bring up Kaya in a debate – saying it proves that we need a green technology to avoid global warming – after pointing out that he hasn’t proved co2 guilty – then point out the Kaya makes a case for nuclear energy too
Thanks to Dr. Pielke for participating. Interesting but I want to see how this is applied to the real world and my concern is how this will be sliced/diced as a basis for world development. I guess I missed something.
I lived in third world countries in the midst of tribal subsistence, agri-poverty, banana republic social dictatorships. Dr. Pielke makes a short mention of it, the number of people who die from cooking over dung.
– 3 million people die every from indoor air poisoning because they do not have fuel or electric. (WHO org)
– 3.4 million people die every year including 760 000 children…because they are not allowed to have electric to run drinking water and sanitary systems. http://water.org/water-crisis/water-facts/water/
– 850,000 people die every year because refrigerated vaccines cannot be maintained…because some activist group determined that we could not bring in 5000 feet of electric line and that a solar panel powering a single light bulb will be enough to run a refrigerator…although the doc had to chose between surgery light and the refrigerator.
Only the rich with disposable income are focused on environment issues. I find this ethnocentric since the solutions offered remove choices for the poor and limit their opportunities for developed: a two tier system: rich countries and all others.
.It was ‘interesting’ standing by watching Indians starve because Honduras put a ban on cutting limbs from trees for firewood. Only wood that has landed on the ground could be used…there are ways around that.
.
When comparing GDP as a measure for carbon emissions, it ignores countries with low GDP who rely on slash/burn farming and other pollution based processes. Slash/burn is the method to fertilize the low quality land, otherwise more jungle will be needed to get the same crop.
Countries with less income not going to spend millions for air scrubbers on electrical plants.
So using the Kaya in the real world, 50,000 cars must be taken off the roads in Massachusetts so that a community in Mosquito can have a washing bin instead of using the river….and free up women to do other things.
Because, the reality is, this admin will never pass any of the 13 nuclear power permits started up 8 years ago, my Enviro light bulbs are not enough, and sending cash to the rich in a Banana republic makes that person very rich.
After some more research, I concede Johan’s point that the Kaya identity is not like a mathematical identity. My post at July 19, 2014 at 9:41 am is completely wrong. Mathematical identities have no dependent variables. I should have stuck with physics.
That said, while making the analogy between Kaya and the laws of physics I stated that these laws are like an identity, They are not like a mathematical identity, A physical law has independent and dependent variables so it is incorrect to refer to them as an identity.
So I have to agree that calling Kaya an identity is a misnomer and is clearly getting in the way of understanding its usefulness.
Good on you Johan.
Maybe I’m overlooking something, but I don’t see why there’s any controversy about this. It looks like a useful tool to describe your degrees of freedom in altering CO2 emissions. In that sense it’s similar to F=ma. If I want to increase or decrease force this equation tells me that I can either alter mass or acceleration or both. Or I can increase one and decrease the other. But is it really this easy? Nope, because if you exchange on of your masses with a different object with different materials then the “a” changes. The Kaya Identity seeks to find all of the subtle effects that change the outcome.
In another sense it’s like the Drake Equation. Whether you use a top down or bottom up approach your final result is only going to be as good as your knowledge of each variable. That makes it useless for most purposes except as a “what if” exercise. As a propaganda tool I can’t see that it’s significantly more useful to either side.
Plants and photosynthetic organisms are the dominant life form on Earth. The leaves of plants are home to microbes (Pseudomonas syringae) which are excellent ice nucleating particles. When these bacteria are wafted into the upper atmosphere they cause rain, which waters the plants. Plants breath CO2 and exhale oxygen. Humans breath oxygen, and eat plants, then the humans dig up fossil fuels and burn them, which feeds the plants.
Stupid question: why isnt the “Kaya Identity” replaced with CO2= f (population, gdp, energy consumption, efficiency) . It seems to me that would eliminate the confusion.
Not having read much of the other discussions about this I am probably repeating other’s comments.
Anyone here who runs a business will know that numbers can be explained in more ways then one. Numbers are not absolute by any means, only when used in a certain way, but there are always more ways then one. And which is more valid depends on opinion. One can turn a profit into a loss and the other way around (within reason) and eventually you do run out of options.
According to the link given by Dr Pielke, and the graph supplied therein, China has the highest rate of emissions per $1000 GDP but they also have the lowest rate per capita, although no mention of this in the article that I could find.
This is not meant as trying to criticize the equation by the way, just a fact.
If I were a Chinese official I would use the per capita figure to clobber the rest of the world for not doing enough, and you could not fault their side of the argument.
The UK comes out quite well in the per $1000 graph, but all they have really done is exporting their most dirty industries to the likes of China, India and others.
And the UK is not alone with that, it was all done to help developing nations or so we were told by policy makers and it is was a sign of the times according to them running those companies.
The equation stacks up as far as a mathematical formula is concerned for the CO2 issue based on the given parameters, but it depends on how you wish to look at it where the problem lies.
In the case of this report, as this was written for the Brits all I can conclude is that it makes the British Government look pretty good compared to some others and that was the intention of the Brits in the first place.
They already knew the outcome of the findings before they asked, Dr Pielke in this case, to conclude it. I do not wish to criticize Dr Pielke’s good work but to me this is a bit like Cadbury getting research done to show the benefits of chocolate, pay for the research and set the parameters and presto there is the conclusion we were looking for. How about that.
Or is that being too skeptical.
JohnH says:
July 19, 2014 at 12:18 pm
[it’s] useless for most purposes except as a “what if” exercise.
—
that’s it in a nutshell – well put
JohnH says:
As a propaganda tool I can’t see that it’s significantly more useful to either side.
—
it’s use assumes CO2 to be dangerous – the overarching controversy – the question of the danger of increasing co2 – is not mentioned – unless someone brings it up
I would point out that based on the “Kaya Identity”, doubling the population while keeping gdp, energy consumption, and efficiency equal results in zero increase in CO2 emmisions. I guess CO2 is independent of population.