By Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger and Patrick J. Michaels
The main idea, as it is portrayed, driving the Obama administration’s pursuit of carbon dioxide regulations is that climate change is leading to all manner of bad things. Pointing to concrete example of bad things that have resulted from human greenhouse gas emissions, however, is much more challenging than just saying it is the case. In fact, for most climate/weather events and their resulting effect, the bulk of the science contradicts the administration’s contentions.
Roger Pielke Jr. makes it a habit to point out how White House proclamations concerning extreme weather events go awry. We have similar habits.
An especially egregious example concerns heat-related mortality. It is true that extreme heat can lead to excess mortality. It is also true that global warming should lead to more heat waves. However, it is NOT true that global warming will lead to more heat-related mortality—the logic forwarded by the administration. Frequent readers of this blog are well aware of this.
However, as not everyone (to his or her detriment) is a frequent reader of this blog, we presented our findings on climate change and heat-related mortality to the audience at a science policy conference held by the American Geophysical Union (AGU) this week. Our conclusions were:
The cause of the observed decline in the sensitivity to extreme heat in the face of rising heat is likely found in a collection of adaptations including increased access to air-conditioning, better medical care, improved building design, community response programs, heat watch/warning systems, and biophysical changes. There is no reason to think that such response measures won’t continue to exist and be improved upon into the future.In our recent study summarizing the findings on declining heat-related mortality trends in both the U.S and Europe, we made this observation (Knappenberger et al., 2014):
“Some portion of this response [the declining sensitivity to excessive heat events] probably reflects the temporal increase in the frequency of extreme-heat events, an increase that elevates public consciousness and spurs adaptive response. In this manner, climate change itself leads to adaptation.”
It is insufficient and inappropriate to ignore this effect when compiling and discussing the impacts of climate change. If an increasing frequency of heat events raises public awareness and gives rise to an adaptive response that lowers the population’s relative risk due to extreme heat, this must be properly weighed against any increases in mortality that result from a greater number of mortality-inducing heat events.
Our analysis highlights one of the many often overlooked intricacies of the human response to climate change.
Our full AGU poster, “Climate Change, Heat Waves, and Adaptation,” is available for viewing online here.
Hopefully, it opened some eyes.
Global Science Report is a feature from the Center for the Study of Science, where we highlight one or two important new items in the scientific literature or the popular media. For broader and more technical perspectives, consult our monthly “Current Wisdom.”
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
mandas
This is a joke, right? Your solution to global warming is to turn up the air conditioning?
Seriously, you can’t make this shit up.
Fair point, after you guys have finished f*cking up the electricity grid, nobody will be able to afford air conditioning.
I’m still waiting for someone to tell me what is so bad about warmer weather. Even if we believe that the hottest temperatures have been recorded in the last 15-20 years (I don’t – while I wasn’t around in the 30’s, records show that it was clearly as hot then as now), nothing obviously bad has happened. To the contrary, the have been fewer catastrophic weather events, sea levels are maintaining their steady climb as we continue to came out of the LIA., antarctic ice is increasing and thanks to the extra carbon dioxide, our crops have higher yields. I vote for warmer please!
***
mandas says:
June 21, 2014 at 3:59 am
This is a joke, right? Your solution to global warming is to turn up the air conditioning?
Seriously, you can’t make this shit up.
***
Good joke yourself. If your house is too hot, which is more effective at cooling your house and family — turning on air-conditioning, or stop driving your car or using electricity?
If you think it’s the latter, go for it.
Most people die of heart disease or cancer, both mostly preventable through diet and lifestyle changes. A graph of death by cause wouldn’t even register heat waves or cold spells.
In 2003 over 52,000 Europeans died during an August heat wave. Many lived in France. Most commonly they were poor older women living alone in poorly vented apartments who died of dehydration. To prevent such a tragedy all you needed was a loving grandson bringing you some bottled water and a kiss and hug. Interesting that there are no estimates of people who die because they are abandoned by their children.
xyzzy11
I’m still waiting for someone to tell me what is so bad about warmer weather. …
You sweat a lot – and thats about it.
Shortest day of the year here in the Southern Hemisphere, today I wore T-shirt and shorts because it was nice and warm.
“…In this manner, climate change itself leads to adaptation.”
And we have never adapted to various climates and conditions that exist on this planet before?
Anyway, this from the Office of National Statidtics:
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_337459.pdf
Excess Winter Mortality in England and Wales, 2012/13 (Provisional) and 2011/12 (Final)
An estimated 31,100 excess winter deaths occurred in England and Wales in 2012/13 – a 29% increase compared with the previous winter.
Key findings
• An estimated 31,100 excess winter deaths occurred in England and Wales in 2012/13 – a 29%
increase compared with the previous winter.
• As in previous years, there were more excess winter deaths in females than in males in 2012/13.
• Between 2011/12 and 2012/13 male excess winter deaths increased from 10,590 to 13,100, and
female deaths from 13,610 to 18,000.
• The majority of deaths occurred among those aged 75 and over; there were 25,600 excess
winter deaths in this age group in 2012/13 compared with 5,500 in people aged under 75.
• The excess winter mortality index was highest in the North West in 2012/13 and lowest in
London. London had the highest level of excess winter mortality in 2011/12.
Summary
In common with other countries, in England and Wales more people die in the winter than in the
summer….
And this from the Met Office:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/education/teens/case-studies/heatwave
The heatwave of 2003 – Met Office Education
Effects of the heatwave
About 15,000 people died due to the heat in France, which led to a shortage of space to store dead bodies in mortuaries. Temporary mortuaries were set up in refrigeration lorries. There were also heat-related deaths in the UK (2,000), Portugal (2,100), Italy (3,100), Holland (1,500) and Germany (300).
If we compare the UK years 2003 and 2010 (as above) it is clear that 31,000 cold related deaths are worse than 2000 heat related deaths?
Judging from the above comments alone: we are discussing a non-problem.
bushbunny says:
June 20, 2014 at 10:22 pm
Your “Hemo” might be pretty smart with your care but he’s not too sharp on what neutrinos are. I think you could have blown his mind by telling him that some 8-10 million neutrinos passed through his head while you were speaking your sentence. I believe I read once that a single neutrino could travel the thickness of a light year of lead with only ~ 50% chance of interacting with a lead nucleus. You are correct, cosmic rays are electrons, protons, etc., moving at up to relativistic speeds, which do interact with molecules in the upper atmosphere.
I read the article. I read some of the comments. My experience is that it’s no longer getting warmer where I live. Today is the first day of Summer and the high is expected to be 89. It was 67 when I woke up this morning. I live in the Southern U.S. I’m not saying it’s cold or anything, but it’s certainly not been as hot as it has been in times past. Just give it a few more years. I think this whole “global warming” thing is going to be world’s largest FAIL! Then the real tragedy will be that people worldwide will giggle and smirk at science and scientists for generations afterward, if not outright hate on them.
The human body is already superbly adapted for a warmer climate. It is cold climates that we have had to artificially adapt to with clothing and heating etc.
The Warmists as usual have everything backwards.
Gary: unfortunately, you are right. Even more unfortunately, these are not even real scientists doing the damage. They are an offshoot of the soft sciences, which should never have been glorified with the title of “scientist” anyway. They haven’t the first clue about how real science works, mainly only being capable of applying inappropriate packaged statistical tests to data which gets changed if the results don’t meet expectations.
Real scientists should be fighting to take back the name.
Steve from Rockwood says:
June 21, 2014 at 5:13 am
Most people die of heart disease or cancer, both mostly preventable through diet and lifestyle changes.”
Nope, merely delay the inevitable
To Eve (first comment):
Eve, I love Canada, have been there many times (often in late summer, when the black flies have gone). But despite my Canadian ancestry, and my enjoyment of the easy-going people who live up north, I cannot bring myself to move there. The two main reasons are the long cold winters, and the mosquitos and black flies.
Eventually, global warming might shorten the winters, but it won’t put a dent in the number of mosquitos and black flies, and might actually increase their annual bothersome index!
If anything, US should be more concerned about cold waves Annual Contiguous US temperatures have a declining trend at (-0.36 F/DECADE) since 1998. This is happening in 7 of the 9 climate regions in United States. Only the Northeast and the West both of which receive the moderating effect of the oceans, had slight warming trend of 0.2 and 0.3 F/decade respectively
8 months of the year have a declining trend, 1 month is flat, and 3 months are rising
WINTER ,SPRING and FALL have DECLINING TEMPERATURES
SUMMER has RISING TEMPERATURES [only MARCH, JUNE and JULY have still rising temperatures]
These declines are similar to past temperature declines in United States during 1895-1920 and again 1954 -1979. A similar cool period seems to have started during the current decade .
@ur momisugly Pat: Did you misquote Ridley? Did he actually say, “… major damage”? It sounds more reasonable.
Strawman. The claim was that rising temperatures will not cause as many deaths and ills from heat waves as alarmists have forecast. That’s all.
John
Even mosquitos will have tough time in Canada
SINCE 1998
Winter trend TEMPERATURES ARE DECLINING
Spring trend TEMPERATURES ARE DECLINING
Summer trend VERY SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES
Fall trend TEMPERATURES ARE FLAT
Annual trend TEMPERATURES ARE FLAT
There is a colder winter temperature trend developing in most parts of Canada since 1998.
Canadian winter temperature departures from 1961-1990 averages [as per Environment Canada data] have declined since 1998 when measured on the National level. Regionally. 8 of 11 major temperature regions have had winter temperatures declining since 1998. For the Atlantic region the winter temperatures have been flat since 1998 but declining after 2010 Only the Arctic Tundra, Mountains and Fiords, show winter warming since 1998 mostly due to the past warmer North Atlantic .However now the Canadian North has started to cool, the last 4 winters or post 2010 and winter temperature departures have already been 4.8 degrees cooler since 2010. AMO or the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation has gone negative or cool. Expect the climate along the Atlantic Coast provinces to cool further.
How much have Canadian winters cooled very recently 2010-2014 ?.
Atlantic Canada winter has cooled 4C since 2010 (7.2 F)
Great Lakes and St Lawrence valley winter cooled 5.6 C since 2012 (10 F)
Northern Ontario and Quebec winter has cooled 6.9 C since 2010 (12.4 F)
Northern western forests winter cooled 6.8 C since 2012 (12.2 F)
Prairies winter cooled 8.0 C since 2012 (14.4 F)
Canada’s National winter temperature cooled 4.5 C since 2010 (8.1 F)
in the face of rising heat…………….
WHAT?……stop buying this bull S… and stop lying right from the get go
Asking for examples of bad things that happened in the past sort of misses the point, doesn’t it? The regs are to reduce future warming and future harm. That nothing bad has happened yet is akin to the man falling off the Empire State Building saying as he passes the fifth floor on the way down “so far, so good!”.
claimsguy:
Your post at June 21, 2014 at 8:55 am says in total
At issue is what may happen in future and not what has happened in the past.
Global warming stopped over 17 years ago.
Passing “regs” on the basis that something bad may happen if there were global warming is like demolishing the Empire State Building as a precaution against somebody falling off of it.
In summation, don’t be silly.
Richard
Dr Pielke Jnr wrote: “There is no reason to think that such response measures (air-conditioning, better medical care, improved building design, etc.) won’t continue to exist and be improved upon into the future.”
Imho, there is very good reason to think such things won’t be available in the future – government policy!
We (UK) used to have a(n unspoken) tradition for the care of the elderly – “inheritance powders”.
It solves the housing crisis, the pensions crisis, the hospital-bed shortage, boosts the economy
(young people are spenders, the elderly are savers), and the gov.t takes a cut of the profits – inheritance tax.
Short of actually poisoning grandma, the best (worst?) the gov.t can do is raise energy costs, raise medical care costs, raise food prices, and so on. Sure it’ll hurt the young and the poor,
but it’ll kill the elderly – and that’s the aim.
Steve from Rockwood says:
June 21, 2014 at 5:13 am
////////////////////
I question the 2003 figures. I spent much time in Spain that summer (having bought a villa there only a couple of years before), and Spain is hotter than France. My wife spent the entire summer in Spain that year. Yes it was hot, but neither of us noticed a substantial difference over previous, or later years. Warmer for sure, but not that much warmer. We have aircon in all rooms except bathrooms, and I doubt we switched the aircon on until about 9pm, at the earliest; nearly the entire year, it is more pleasant outside than inside, so we would not go inside until it was dark, and in the height of the summer,very often not before 2 or 3 am (then again we were not working)..
There may have been a higher than average mortality rate that year, but I am sceptical that it was due to the heat. Given that there are always swings, I suspect that the mortality rates for that year were a bit of an outlier.
herkimer, good luck for me then that I bought our place in the Bahamas at the beginning of 2012. I have noticed each year returning to Canada that plant flowering is reduced. Every spring since my return in 2012, my friends tell me that is was a long winter and cold spring. It is a pity, in Ontario, that they cannot put together the increase in electricity cost and taxes with the political party they are voting for. You know, the one that will save them from global warming/climate change. I blame all of this global warming/climate change hysteria on the lack of intellect of the population. I cannot fix that anymore than Obama can fix climate change. But I can move and I did.
Something I failed to see mentioned: The Arctic has warmed more than the other parts of the world – one thing that climate models managed to model correctly. So, in the northern hemisphere, especially north of 15-20 degrees north or so, which has most of the world’s population, cold areas have warmed more than warm areas. Among the areas more than 20 degrees north, especially where indoor heating is necessary, winters have mostly warmed more than summers.
This sounds to me like a good thing. For one, this would probably reduce energy consumption for climate control. For another thing, reduced horizontal temperature gradient reduces the main fuel of significant extratropical-type windstorms, from most tornadoes F2/EF2/plus, to derechos and nor’easters and hybrid tropical/extratropical storms like Sandy, Hazel, and the Saxby Gale.
Note that Agnes was a tropical/extratropical hybrid that was not so much a windstorm, but a 1972 rainstorm that set many flood records, many of which still stand. Also, Agnes took a path with great resemblance to that of Sandy once getting north of Florida or so. 1972 was a cool year in a cool period, as far as the past 70 years went.
richardscourtney says in part, June 21, 2014 at 9:04 am, if I got this right:
“At issue is what may happen in future and not what has happened in the past.
Global warming stopped over 17 years ago.
Passing “regs” on the basis that something bad may happen if there were global warming is like demolishing the Empire State Building as a precaution against somebody falling off of it.”
I see a widely-repeated overstatement-of-the-case for how long global warming has been stopped. Only one of the major global temperature datasets supports the pause lasting that long. None of the others, including one of the two major satellite-measured datasets and a less-warming surface one superseded by a more-warming version, supports to extent of 50-plus %, complete lack of warming starting before 2001.
One thing I see on both sides of the global warming debate is that overstatement by either side of this highly politically polarized debate results in loss of credibility.