Dr. Indur Goklany writes:
Earlier today on WUWT in the post, UHI and Heat Related Mortality, a researcher from Arizona claims that, “Extreme heat is the leading weather-related killer in the United States.” I am afraid that this piece of nonsense is about to become conventional wisdom. However, this is based on cherry-picking one’s data source. The full story is given in the attached paper written in 2011.
Which is responsible for more U.S. deaths — Excessive Heat or Excessive Cold?
by Indur M. Goklany
The USGCRP Synthesis Report states that data on 19,958 deaths from weather related extreme events from 1970 to 2004 for the US indicates that heat/drought is responsible for the largest share (19.6%), followed by severe weather, defined to include fog, hail, wind and thunderstorm (18.8%) and winter weather (18.1%). This information is sourced to Borden and Cutter (2008), henceforth B&C. [Note that these estimates exclude deaths from excess winter mortality, which is a chronic phenomenon unrelated to extreme weather. Also, note that it’s not just global warming, but also the heat island effect that may contribute to excessive deaths in warm weathers.]
In contrast to B&C, other researchers have identified deaths from excessive cold as the single largest cause with twice as many dying from excessive cold as excessive heat (e.g., Deschenes and Moretti, 2009; Thacker et al., 2008; Goklany, 2007, 2009; Goklany and Straja 2000).
What accounts for this discrepancy?
As acknowledged by B&C (p. 10 of 13), it depends on data source as well as how the events are grouped. B&C used the Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database for the United States (SHELDUS; available at www.sheldus.org) which is derived primarily from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) monthly Storm Data publications, while the other publications use death certificate data maintained by the Center for Disease Control (CDC) in the Compressed Mortality File. In the US, death certificates must be accompanied by a medical certificate of death signed by the attending physician at time of death. As such, the CDC’s Compressed Mortality File is the best source for the cause of death.
B&C justify their choice on the basis that “unlike Storm Data (upon which SHELDUS is based), the Compressed Mortality File is not solely focused on natural hazard events. Although both SHELDUS and the Compressed Mortality File likely suffer from undercounting hazard related deaths [4,39], it is known that the only reason any of the deaths appear in Storm Data (and SHELDUS) is because of some natural event. In the CDC’s Compressed Mortality File, deaths are interpreted from classifying the underlying cause listed on death certificates [4], whereas SHELDUS mortality is derived from Storm Data.” It also notes that the coding system used by the CDC was revised after 1998.
Neither of these reasons is compelling. First, Storm Data procedures were also changed in the 1990s (B&C, p. 3; Dixon et al., p. 939). More importantly, studies that have attempted to verify numbers from Storm Data or the Annual Summaries based on Storm Data, find that they substantially underestimate deaths (e.g., Ashley and Gilson, 2009; Goklany, 1999, 2007). To quote Dixon et al. (2005): “weather-related catastrophic ‘group kills’ rather than ‘individual kills’ are more likely to be included in Storm Data. Therefore, this may tend to give more complete numbers for weather-related categories, such as tornadoes, hurricanes, or heat waves, than for deaths from winter cold, and the multiple categories for excessive cold deaths can also introduce an underreporting of cold deaths.” They also observe that, “The CDC NCHS’s Compressed Mortality Database is, in general, a more comprehensive database. As such, it would more likely include weather-related ‘single kills’ than would Storm Data.”
This observation is critical because it is possible to have people die from excessive cold even in the midst of a “normal” winter because of exposure to elements as an unintended consequence of intended or unintended actions (e.g., taking a walk in the cold or through loss of heating, for whatever reason).
Dixon et al. also add that, “However, the Compressed Mortality Database is limited by the medical personnel’s actual determination of the ‘weather relatedness’ of death, and the database often runs years behind current events.” Regarding the first part of this argument, one should note that determining the cause of death requires medical expertise rather than meteorological expertise such as the NCDC possesses. With respect to the second part, one must respond that in a scientific exercise, speed of reporting cannot take precedence over the accuracy or completeness of data.
Finally, although NCDC is a part of NOAA, the data it provides (based on Storm Data) is sometimes at odds with data from other parts of NCDC. For example, its data on deaths from floods is different from that of the Hydrological Information Center (HIC), the group within NOAA charged with keeping data on flood deaths. And the compilers of the Storm Data-derived Annual Summaries, themselves have in the past suggested using the HIC compilation (Goklany, 1999, footnote 38, pp. 337-338; 2007, footnote 214, p. 457, 2009, pp. 105-106).
For all these reasons, it is more appropriate to use the CDC’s Compressed Mortality Database for deaths from excessive heat and cold. And this database indicates that on average twice as many people die from excessive cold than excessive heat.
Additional References
Ashley,W.S., and Gilson, C.W. 2009. A Reassessment of U.S. lightning mortality. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi: 10.1175/2009BAMS2765.1.
Borden, K.A., and Cutter, S.L. 2008. Spatial patterns of natural hazards mortality in the United States. International Journal of Health Geographics, doi:10.1186/1476-072X-7-64.
Deschenes, O., Moretti, E. 2009. Extreme Weather Events, Mortality and Migration. Review of Economics and Statistics 91(4): 659–681.
Dixon, P.G., Brommer, D.M., Hedquist, B.C., Kalkstein, A.J., Goodrich, G.B., Walter, J.C., Dickerson, C.C., Penny, S.J., and Cerveny, R.S.. 2005: Heat mortality versus cold mortality: A study of conflicting databases in the United States. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86, 937–943.
Goklany, I.M. 1999. Richer is More Resilient: Dealing With Climate Change and More Urgent Environmental Problems. In: Bailey, R., ed. Earth Report 2000, Revisiting the True State of the Planet. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill, pp. 155-187.
Goklany, I.M. 2007. The Improving State of the World: Why We’re Living Longer, Healthier, More Comfortable Lives on a Cleaner Planet. Washington, DC: Cato Institute: 167.
Goklany, I.M. 2009. Deaths and Death Rates from Extreme Weather Events: 1900-2008. Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons 14 (4): 102-09.
Goklany, I.M., and Straja, S.R. 2000. “U.S. Death Rates due to Extreme Heat and Cold Ascribed to Weather, 1979-1997.” Technology 7S: 165-173.
Thacker, M.T.F., Lee, R., Sabogal, R.I., and Henderson, A. 2008. Overview of deaths associated with natural events, United States, 1979–2004. Disasters 2008, 32(2):303-315.
US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). 2009. Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press.
It would have been a more interesting study to explore the discrepancies. Fortunately we have Doc G to carry on from where Herman Kahn left off.
Unfortunately the EPA is setting this country up for an explosion of cold-related deaths in the coming years. Gas pipeline infrastructure has been stressed to keep up with heating/electric demand in the eastern U.S. Now that more coal plants are closing and more electricity is being generated by gas, pipelines will not be able to keep up if/when we have another winter like 2013/14. If you live on the east coast make sure you have an alternative heating source.
John Slayton says:
June 3, 2014 at 12:56 am
People from Mexico can’t adapt to the extreme weather of Arizona? Who knew!
Also, your only source seems to be the New York Times, a fatuous bunch of anti-science webloggers who still claim that the Holodomor never happened. You might try to find a slightly more sturdy stand to hang your hat on.
You can do this exercise real easy by going to the Center for Disease Control site. They have two reports there on heat- and cold-related deaths between 1999 and 2003. (Don’t know whey they don’t have more updated numbers easily available.)
According to the CDC:
During 1999–2002, a total of 4,607 death certificates in the United States had hypothermia-related diagnoses listed as the underlying cause of death or nature of injury leading to the underlying cause of death (annual incidence: four per 1,000,000 population).
During 1999–2003, a total of 3,442 deaths resulting from exposure to extreme heat were reported (annual mean: 688). For 2,239 (65%) of these deaths, the underlying cause of death was recorded as exposure to excessive heat; for the remaining 1,203 (35%), hyperthermia was recorded as a contributing factor.
So, in three years there were 4607 cold-related deaths (1535.67 per year), while in four years there were 3442 heat-related deaths (860.5 per year). I’d say that’s a pretty definite tilt to the hypothermia side of things.
Historically COLD caused the greatest deaths.
Finland lost ~1/3rd of its population in the Great Famine during the Little Ice Age
I don’t know of any heat related disaster that comes close.
Neumann, J.; Lindgrén, S. (1979). “Great Historical Events That Were Significantly Affected by the Weather: 4, The Great Famines in Finland and Estonia, 1695–97”. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 60 (7): pp775–787. ISSN 1520-0477. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1979)0602.0.CO;2.
PS Most of the 14,802 deaths from the 2013 heat wave in France were preventable, and due to mismanagement from most health workers going on their August vacation leaving few to ensure that the elderly received needed air conditioning.
The Inuits before being introduced to a carbohydrate rich diet, were living on mainly flesh and blubber, with a little bit of carbohydrate. They like the Neaderthals had developed a metabolism that created energy from proteins and fats. But we need carbohydrates and although protein does produce some energy it is slow to convert. I learned this in 1988 from an archaeologist, who said humans had adapted to most parts of the world accept the polar regions as the Inuits had a different diet to most western civilizations because of the cold and different body shapes to combat the cold. I checked with an leading endocrinologist treating my young son for insulin dependent diabetes. He had worked in Canada and said this was true. The only carbohydrate they got in their diet was a few berries in summer and a soup made from the stomach of seals.
So if we eat lots of carbohydrates in our diet and fat in cold weather we keep the internal fires burning. They are burned off quickly keeping our bodies warm.
Well of course any famine will kill people especially in cold or very hot weather. Then they are also more susceptible for disease such as the black death, small pox, etc.
If you are adapted to cold weather and know how to live in it comfortably, you can survive well.
Personally I think that cold countries where the use of central heating and air conditioners have made us prone to become hot house flowers.
JamesS — You can get slightly more updated info on US deaths from extreme cold and heat in: Deaths and Death Rates from Extreme Weather Events: 1900-2008. Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons 14 (4): 102-09 (2009) at http://www.jpands.org/vol14no4/goklany.pdf.
David L. Hagen
Take a look at http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/06/winter-kills-excess-deaths-in-the-winter-months/. Chronic cold may be killing more than extreme heat or extreme cold.
“deaths from extreme cold and heat”
But are they both the same thing?
Please first explain what it is that deaths ‘from’ extreme cold and ‘from’ extreme heat have in common, that we ought to compare them at all?
I’ll get you started:-
Hyperthermia (‘heat stress’) is NOT caused by excessive atmospheric heat. It is defined as an internal metabolic failure.
Hypothermia, in contrast, is DIRECTLY CAUSED by exposure to low atmospheric temperatures.
http://iceagenow.info/2014/06/cold-wave-kills-60000-cattle-bolivia/
this and many other such incidents..dont rate a mention MSM wise…
we dont see a heatwave killing like this.
After spending a bit of time with mortality/weather data, I am of the strong opinion that when it comes to daily weather events, extreme heat kills more people than extreme cold in the U.S.
It is true that more people die in the winter than in the summer, but it is largely unclear why this is the case (it is true in Miami just as it is in Minneapolis). It is far from obvious that a winter warming would lead to fewer deaths.
Influenza plays a strong role in winter deaths, but the relationship between the flu and temperature is not obvious (or readily identifiable in the data).
-Chip
Chip,
I think it’s a lot more complicated. First, I think we get seduced by looking at the effect of exceptional events (e.g., extreme cold and/or extreme heat). While this is more dramatic, in general, more people die from “chronic” conditions than extreme situations. Second, Keatinge and others (e.g., Donaldson) have hypothesized physiological routes by which cold weather can increase mortality which makes sense and can explain the association – this is not the same thing as saying cold weather kills by itself, but that effects it might have could, in turn, cause mortality. In fact, the fact that influenza is associated with cold weather could be one of them. Third, several analyses indicate that extreme heat “harvests” deaths, that is, there is an initial increase in mortality (rate) and then a decline. In other words, extreme heat, for the most part, moves deaths forward by a few days, whereas the harvesting effect is much lower, if not non-existent, for extreme cold. (see e.g., Deschenes and Moretti 2009 at http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/rest.91.4.659#.U4-6DigcOuk.
Best regards,
Goks
Oh, I should have added that data from CDC’s Compressed Mortality File indicates that more people die from extreme cold rather than extreme heat (see above).