A place for discussion
Open Thread
141 Comments
May 10, 2026 2:06 am
As just-stop-oil trump continues his crusade…
Soaring costs drive Pakistan to EVs
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2601792/soaring-costs-drive-pakistan-to-evs
Battery-electric freight trains would lift Australia’s energy independence
Gaslighting on gas prices: Trump points to ‘very substantial’ drop that didn’t happen
https://www.ms.now/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/gaslighting-on-gas-prices-trump-points-to-very-substantial-drop-that-didnt-happen
Fox News needs to get with the program.
Fox News shows a comparison of gasoline prices today (4.54 per gallon) to two years ago (3.15 per gallon).
Which is all well and good,but if they want to show the proper perspective on this they would also include the price of gasoline under Joe Biden where the price was over five dollars per gallon.
So even with a war going on, gasoline prices are still cheaper now than under Biden’s stupid administration.
During Biden’s term, when gasoline prices were over five dollars per gallon, there was no daily scrutiny of gasoline prices, they were barely even mentioned. Now, we have to hear about it from all over the media, including Fox News.
Put things in perspective, Fox News, and show the gasoline prices during Biden’s term when you do your comparisons in the future.
Of course, the Leftwing Media will not compare gasoline prices of the Trump terms and the Biden term because Biden and the Leftwing Media lose every time.
Biden had high gas prices because putin illegally attacked ukraine
trump has high gas prices because trump illegally attacked iran
Spot the difference
Republicans who slammed Biden’s gas prices are preaching patience for Trump
https://www.ms.now/news/republicans-slammed-biden-gas-prices-preaching-patience-trump
Biden had high gas prices
Really? That is funny. They’re nowhere near as high as ours in the UK – and Europe – then or now.
Mad Ed Miliband is busy shutting down our North sea sectors. What a righteous man. Our neighbour in Norway thinks differently…
The Norwegian government has been heavily criticised for approving plans to reopen three North Sea gasfields nearly three decades after they were closed to help fill the gap in energy supplies created by the Middle East war.
Amid sharp price rises in oil and gas since the US and Israel’s attack on Iran in February, Oslo has also given its approval for oil and gas companies to explore in 70 new locations in the North Sea, Barents Sea and Norwegian Sea.
The decision by the Labour-run government goes against the advice of the country’s environment agency and has infuriated left-leaning parties.
‘Mad Ed Miliband is busy shutting down our North sea sectors. What a righteous man.’
Ed might be the least of your problems:
https://mises.org/mises-wire/uk-equality-law-revamp-legislates-socialism
“Trump has high gas prices because trump illegally attacked iran.”
Are you nuts? Iran was two weeks away from having an atomic bomb. Iran, the country that seizes diplomats, that funds terrorism all over the world, that mounts crowds shouting “death to America” would absolutely have used the bomb if they had it. There is no commercial use for 60% enriched uranium. You only enrich to that level if you are making an atomic bomb. And Iran had enough of it for ten bombs. Let’s see, goodbye to Tel Aviv, Rome, Paris, London, Washington DC, New York, Berlin, and maybe a few more. Think they wouldn’t do it – then I’ve got a bridge to sell you.
“Which is all well and good,but if they want to show the proper perspective on this they would also include the price of gasoline under Joe Biden where the price was over five dollars per gallon.”
The difference Tom is, that Biden did not campaign on bringing down gas prices. But we both know a guy who did… along with no new wars. And when the new war is the reason for the high gas prices (and fertiliser) it’s a double whammy and the focus should and is going on the person responsible. There is no getting away from the fact this is a self inflicted wound by Trump. That is why he is now at historically low approval ratings. https://www.economist.com/interactive/trump-approval-tracker
And if you care to look at where the public see the problem is…. it is the economy and inflation, two areas Trump was meant to be some sort of genius on. I think we can now see why this money whisperer has been broke so many times (6).
One tiny section of his empire..
Happens regularly in business… if you have ever done anything worthwhile in your life, you would know that.
But he is now a very rich person , that doesn’t take a salary for being President of the USA, and who is funding a much needed ballroom on the White House out of his own money (actually, BBC will most likely pay for it from their defamation payment)
No, Simon, HE was not in trouble financially. I know you’re smart enough to understand this, but you don’t seem willing to: Those were businesses. Separate from the person. Six out of around 250. What about the 244 others? What about the fact that those businesses were corporations, with assets separate from Trump’s personal assets? What is unclear about any of that?
TRUMP was not at any point broke or bankrupt. Your claim is flat-out false.
And MUR, clarity in communication is not wordplay, but I don’t expect you to understand that.
Simon,
From distant Australia looking on, one big problem for President Trump is the widespread, deep level of ignorance in US society. (Same as here, but we have compulsory voting, US does not).
Huge blocks of our populations do not even know that there are Federal, State and Local government structures. They have very little knowledge of elementary economics but they know they like “free” handouts that buy more drugs and grog. They know little about what goes on in their neighbourhoods and less about the national and international scenes that are usually part of what they vote about. They know little about personal health and even how babies are made and cared for. They care little about social constructs like honesty, obedience to laws, compassion for others, truth, voluntary inputs and similar, matters that thinking people assume to be normal in society.
Politicians seeking votes therefore pitch part of their pre-election offers towards this LCD, the Lowest Common Denominator. Hence, we see stuff like Diversity, Equity, Inclusion thrown towards this ignorant mass.
The first time I visited US, in 1974, I noticed news stands selling cheap weeklies with astounding headlines like “65 foot alligator swallows two people alive”. I thought they were some strange humour until told that many folk thought they reported actual news.
Both US and Australia have enormous problems from trying to cope with this ignorant block, but proposed remedies are few and far between.
Geoff S
“From distant Australia looking on, one big problem for President Trump is the widespread, deep level of ignorance in US society.”
Unfortunately, there is a deep level of ignorance in US Society, fueled by radical Leftwing politics, and the ignorance is not limited to people living in the United Stares. Lots of people worldwide are victims of Leftwing propaganda. Like Simon here.
To demonstrate the level of ignorance of the Leftwing in the United States, about 75 million people voted for the totally unqualified Kamala Harris, in the last presidential election. One has to be extremely ignorant to do that.
Well, Simon, at the present time, preventing Iranian religious fanatics from acquiring nuclear weapons takes precedence over gasoline prices.
And at the national average of $4.52 per gallon, that is still a dollar cheaper than during Biden’s term, and that price increase did not break the bank. The Leftwing Media did not think it was important then. Now they do when Trump is involved.
I paid $3.79 a gallon a couple of days ago, so even that national average does not really show the true costs.
The Strait of Hormuz will eventually be opened, probably by force, and then the prices will come back down.
We may be in for an extended blockade of Iranian ports, along with resuming the destruction of the Mad Mullahs ability to make war, so ya’ll be patient because Trump is going to do whatever it takes to prevent these Fanatics (as he calls them) from getting nuclear weapons, high gasoline prices or not; Appeaser Democrats/Leftist European politicians whining and criticizing or not.
Trump’s main job as president is to protect the American people and he is going to do just that.
And Thank God for him! Left up to lesser men, these Iranian Fanatics would already have dozens of nuclear bombs. Trump struck just in time.
Haha!
“In a bombshell interview that has European globalists clutching their windmills and solar panels, U.S. Ambassador to Belgium Bill White just laid it all out: America is offering to finance up to 50 percent of the cost of building new nuclear reactors in Belgium — potentially $10 billion in U.S. investment that will deliver American technology, American engineering, and American energy dominance straight to our NATO ally.
White, a Trump loyalist hand-picked for the job, didn’t mince words with Belgian newspaper La Libre. Washington is all-in on helping Belgium reverse decades of suicidal “green” phase-out madness. Two American nuclear powerhouses — Westinghouse and GE Vernova — are ready to supply the reactors, the full engineering package, and the know-how.
And get this: President Donald J. Trump is “personally and fully behind the project.” Once permits are secured, White says a new reactor could be up and running in just five years. Five years. That’s lightning speed compared to the endless delays, cost overruns, and regulatory sabotage that have plagued Europe’s flirtation with unreliable wind and solar.”
Oil and Gas production is SURGING all around the world…
https://www.gep.com/blog/mind/south-americas-offshore-oil-boom
https://energyinafrica.com/insights/oil-and-gas-projects-africa/
https://www.moore-global.com/news/africas-41-billion-upstream-oil-and-gas-investment-surge-in-2026/
https://www.el-balad.com/17006073
(Norway’s massive expansion.)
https://energyinafrica.com/insights/nigeria-libya-race-oil-producer/
https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/malaysia-oil-and-gas-market
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Brazils-Oil-Production-Keeps-Growing.html
——
oil and gas market in Asia continues a strong linear increase into the future. (see chart)
—- Hilarious that you use a link to the Mad-cow… the very epitome of ultra-left ignorance.
May 10, 2026 2:07 am
The open threads are like University tutorials which invite the best experts and clear thinkers as well as making it clear who are the repeat offender trolls.
I wish to enter this plea again.
Can we be updated on battery technology by people who are knowledgeable in the field.
So far, politicians blithely talk about battery backup and about storage for release when the sun don’t shine and the wind blows too gently or too strongly.
If I understand correctly, the stored power in Seattle is enough for seventeen minutes. MINUTES. Just time to fire up and tune the voltage and phase of all the gas fired generators on standby.
I was under the impression that for every hectare of solar panels at least 2 hectares of solar panels are required for battery storage to make solar energy even remotely viable, Plus Europe’s larges batter storage facility Zenobē at Blackhillock, Scotland could power the UK for a mere 15 minutes at a cost of £150-£250 to build. That’s a cost of that’s of £1.2B per hour, Are these felicities factored in to the cost of Solar energy? somehow I doubt it.
If you’d like an amusing take on batteries, let me recommend https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2012/08/battery-performance-deficit-disorder/#more-1192. I have considerable respect for Tom Murphy for several reasons. First, he’s articulate. Second, unlike way too many green advocates, Murphy actually understands physics (he was a member of the physics faculty at UCSD). Third, he actually tried with some success to power his life with solar power and battery storage, so he has some grasp on what can and can’t be done with it.
Unfortunately perhaps, in recent years, Murphy seems to have concluded that industrial society as we know it is unsustainable and that once the fossil fuels run out, humanity is going to be in a heap of trouble. Who knows, he might be right.
While looking over Tom Murphy’s list of blog posts, I came across this post on the basic math for wind and solar https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/12/wind-fights-solar/
Well worth reading I think.
The complete list of Murphy’s post is at https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/post-index/
It simply does not matter how much battery technology advances. The whole decarbonization concept is based on the “electrify everything” concept. That would require globally:
- Replace ~ 60% of current electricity production with non-fossil fuel sources.
- Triple total electrify production to replace liquid and gas fuels in transportation, building heating and industrial processing.
- Find some way to produce a vast array of synthetic materials without using hydrocarbons from petroleum or natural gas.
There are many trillions of dollars invested in the current infrastructure that has been built over the course of a century. There is simply not enough time, money or available raw materials the to redo the current system, much less expand it by a factor of 3. We may well someday be far less dependent on fossil fuels, but that will be a matter of slow incremental evolution driven by market economics, not rapid revolution driven by delusional political histrionics.
May 10, 2026 2:19 am
I refer to the hourly ERA5 values of “vertical velocity” at 500 hPa for all of 2024 at latitude 45N. Here is a simplified way to look at the implausible claims of attribution of reported “warming” to incremental CO2.
Background from my 3-15-2026 Open Thread post:
############
A link is provided here to a Google Drive folder containing plots of the ERA5 “vertical velocity” hourly parameter for all hours of 2024 at all longitude points at latitudes 45N and 45S. The vertical velocity values at pressure levels 700 hPa, 500 hPa, and 300 hPa are given. The vertical velocity is stated as the rate of pressure change in Pa/sec. A positive value represents downward movement to higher pressure, and a unit mass of air experiences compression heating. A negative value represents upward movement to lower pressure, and a unit mass of air experiences expansion cooling.
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1V5Vipr_CFIAT0MAXBZtOY8hHljVSgIDW?usp=sharing
Grok: “For a dry adiabatic process with a pressure change rate of ±1 Pa/s (descent: +1 Pa/s → compression heating; ascent: -1 Pa/s → expansion cooling), the temperature change rates at typical temperatures for these levels are:
700 hPa (~260 K): ±3.8 K/hour
500 hPa (~255 K): ±5.2 K/hour
300 hPa (~230 K): ±7.9 K/hour”
#########################
Here is the simplified point for consideration:
For 45N, the computed standard deviation of all the hourly values of the 500 hPa “vertical velocity” for all longitudes for 2024 is 0.29 Pa/sec.
Taking a proportion, (0.29 Pa/sec)/(1 Pa/sec) * 5.2 K/hour = 1.5 K/hour
A long-term warming trend of, say, 0.16 K/decade per UAH LT, is about +0.000002 K/hour. Therefore the 3 K range of a +/- 1.5 K/hour distribution of idealized hourly compression heating / expansion cooling values is over a million times greater than the trend being investigated for attribution to longwave radiative effects of trace gases. In other words, these physical processes massively overwhelm any possibility of reliably isolating the radiative influence of the incremental IR-active trace gases as a cause of a reported warming trend.
See the obvious problem with the “climate” models? There has never been any diagnostic or prognostic authority in the pre-stabilized, time-step-iterated, parameter-tuned-to-hindcast, large-grid, discrete-layer simulations concerning the radiative influence of incremental CO2, CH4, N2O.
Why were the models pre-stabilized? Maybe that was the only way to be able to apply a timed schedule of pre-determined GHG “forcings” through the radiative transfer code, to drive a tunable warming tendency into the simulation.
But NO ONE EVER KNEW at the outset of the investigation that incremental CO2 is even capable of OPERATING as a climate system “forcing” in the proper context of the physics of compressible flow.
The circular reasoning is plain to see. I could be wrong. But I don’t think so.
Thank you for your patience on this issue.
May 10, 2026 3:09 am
Cuba net zero update – decarbonisation achieved
An epidemic of flies, rats, waste and foul odours’: health fears in Cuba as US oil blockade halts rubbish collection – Guardian
The wind and Sun are free.
I’d rather have an energy system that is reliable and affordable on the scale of decades than one which has no hope of being reliable even on a daily basis so requires conventional backup at huge extra cost.
I don’t like it when petrol/gas prices surge. And we’re looking at actual interruption in supply in a few months. But it will be the first interruption in over 20 years and prices will drop again even if new pipelines have to be built.
I’ll take that level of reliability until a better one comes along.
All the harm currently being done to western civilisation is by the Climate Net Zero SCAM.
The deliberate, climate-agenda-driven lack of IMF and World bank funding to third world countries for reliable fossil fuel energy supply is one of the most despicable and disgusting acts in the history of humanity.
May 10, 2026 3:50 am
I think Trump is going to have to play hardball with the religious fanatics running Iran.
I think Trump should start arming the sane Iranians so they can deal with the religious fanatics.
Religious fanatics cannot compromise their murderous goals because they think God is on their side. So, they have to be eliminated. Otherwise, the Mad Mullah threat still exists.
Trump needs to understand that he is dealing with a completely alien mindset with diametrically opposing values; eg the sanctity of life vs the glory and rewards of martyrdom, one progressive and developing, the other perpetually stuck in a 7th century rut.
You really cannot do a deal with them. Now that he’s started it he’d better finish it.
No, we can’t deal with them because they are exercising God’s plan, which is for the fanatics to kill or enslave the non-believers of the world, and any compromise on their part would be a sin against God’s plan.
No compromise. Maybe a little deception, but ultimately, no compromise from the religious fanatics.
Yep, they express one ambition in life, which is to die for their god.
And selfishly, they try for extra bonus points by taking many “infidels” with them.
Maybe we “infidels” should start taking the “ambitious martyrs” at their word, and give them a helping hand towards their desired outcome, but without contributing towards their “bonus points” scores.
Strange that those “religious fanatics” allow both Jewish and Christian communities to not only exist, but worship in their own chosen ways. Interesting that when the Israelis bombed and destroyed a Jewish synagogue in Tehran, the Iranian community removed the rubble –brick by brick–by hand so as not to destroy the “sacred” Torah scrolls and other religious symbols as bull dozing the property would have. Darn those “religious fanatics”
Strange as it may seem, some 680,000 Iranian expats have fled back to Iran since the war started. Must be some support for the Mullahs out there. Oh, and why would those Christians and Jews need to demonstrate on the streets of Iran—people only demonstrate if they are unhappy with the PTB. I think you need to get out more, Tom
Nonsense.
There is zero evidence of a large scale return, but some returns for particular reasons. I suspect a majority of those returning are forced expulsions of Islamic Republic supporters from the West. If there were great love of the Ayatollahs, then why did these ex-pats wait for this war to begin their return?
A friend of mine (who passed away several years ago) was an Iranian and a Christian convert. The Christian missionaries got out quickly but he was imprisoned when the radical Iranians overthrew the Shah and held the US Embassy personnel hostage for about a year or so during the Carter years. He did escape and came to the US a few months after the Embassy was taken. The Embassy personal were released the day before Reagan was sworn in.
Israeli’s bombed and destroyed a synagogue…
This is the Islamic Republic, Al Jazeera, Guardian version of the story. Israelis bombing a synagogue makes no sense in any context and the destruction was in all likelihood collateral damage from the bombing of an adjacent military building, just as the Israelis admit.
The fact that undermines your tale is that in a nation that has grown from 30million to 90million+ from 1979 to today, the Jewish population which was well treated under the Shah and had grown to perhaps 150,000 has declined to 9,000. I suppose when the jewish population becomes a mere 1 you can still stay “that Jew is allowed to worship in his own way.”
May 10, 2026 4:01 am
Average discular ToA Qin ISR = 1,368 W/m^2 (W = 3.412 Btu/Eng h or 3.6 KJ per metric h)
Net 30% albedo discular ToA Qin ASR = 957.6
Now you can divide ASR by 4 to average discular over spherical.
ToA Qout OLR = 239.4
ToA Qout OLR = U * A * (Tsurf – Ttoa)
U = (Conduction + Convection + Advection + Latent) (i.e. kinetic processes) + Radiation
Conduction: Gravity holding molecules (all of them including CO2) against Earth like a fuzzy wuzzy blanket.
Convection: Heated molecular density raising heat from surface.
Advection: Wind
Latent: Clouds
Radiation: A function of temperature which is a function of kinetic processes. As kinetic processes increase/decrease temperature decreases/increases and radiation as a function of temperature just tags along.
No GHE and the entire CAGW house-of-cards shit show collapses including WUWT.
A black body is isothermal and has no specific heat capacity. That is *NOT* the earth. That totally invalidates a radiative budget balance.
Heat loss/gain becomes a time function.
That means you must balance joules-out and joules-in over an appropriate interval, not spot values of flux-in and flux-out, and not even average flux-in/flux-out values over short intervals.
The ocean is a huge heat-sink which can store heat for literally decades and even centuries. The oceans have a HUGE specific heat capacity, four times as large as the atmosphere and 5 times as large as sand, one of the most common land compositions. It takes a large amount of joules to raise the temperature of the ocean by even 1C.
As usual with climate science, the assumption that the earth is a BB is non-physical.
The emissivity may be .96 at a given temperature. What Tim is trying to tell you is that both land and oceans STORE heat at depth. That heat raises the temperature at depth and uses energy that is not available for radiation at the surface.
One can not simply say that the earth absorbs x joules and in turn emits 96% of that.
Use an AI to see what a 4° C rise in temperature of average soil in a square meter 8 inches deep needs in terms of joules. That heat is basically gained over six hours from sunrise to noon and is not radiated away immediately. From spring into summer, some of that heat remains at depth in the soil or we could never grow warm weather crops. Farmers watch that like a hawk watches a mouse when planning to begin planting.
I am no expert on oceans, but it has been stated many times that oceans store heat for long periods of time. Any heat that is stored is not available for radiation.
The substance of a black body is undefined and requires no specification to be a black body – the property is of the radiating surface theoretically smooth. The existence of the concept “black body” is to specify the type of spectral properties of emission and absorption of electromagnetic waves. It existed before relativity and quantum theories.
A chapter in a college text on classical thermodynamics will help your confusion.
The substance of a black body is undefined and requires no specification to be a black body
You are correct that a black body spec means that the surface emits a Planck distribution based on temperature. However, a black body that suffers from internal conduction means that not all absorbed radiation is immediately reradiated. As heat is diffused into the interior, the surface temperature decreases, reducing the outgoing radiation.
If you use SB in reverse to calculate a temperature without adequately reducing the effective radiation that contributes to temperature at the surface, the calculation will be incorrect. Climate science routinely ignores this and assumes joules in = joules out.
From post:”333 is the amount of EMR that would be emitted by a black body…”
Gases are not black bodies and cannot do what you show. You know that.
CO2 is what being blamed for burning up the earth. You know that CO2 has an emissivity near zero at atmospheric pressure and temperatures.
We have seen that CO2 is a lousy blackbody with full column emissivity somewhere between .002 and .2. The value we have developed above, .02, falls in this range.
Emissivity of CO2 | geosciencebigpicture
DM you’re a smart man if you think CO2 can cause heating of the earth say so if you don’t think it can say so. At least Mr. Schroeder makes his stand clear in his last sentence. As far as that goes he is correct.
Corrections noted in bold, regular text:
“Radiation: A function of temperature to the fourth power which is a function of considers kinetic processes and the extremely rapid molecular-collision-induced redistribution of Earth’s surface LWIR emission energy between GHGs and non-IR active gases, predominately N2 and O2. As kinetic processes Earth’s LWIR emissions and cloud coverage and water vapor content increase/decrease temperature decreases/increases and radiation as a function of temperature just tags along continues to be highly dependent on Earth’s albedo and average grey body emissivity.“
There is a saying that is applicable here: “The devil is in the details.”
Clarity.
396 is 54 more than the solar 342 that entered ToA, 157 more than the solar net 239 albedo, 235 more than the solar 161 that enters/leaves the surface violating LoT 1.
333 downwelling from cooler to warmer without work violates LoT 2.
63 (396-333) is a double entry of the solar loop 63 violating GAAP.
Not that it matters.
The 100% imaginary 396/333/63 GHE loop of TFK_bams09 and all of its clones are rubbish.
“are you colour-blind, the earth is blue. “
Are you seriously trying to imply that Earth’s surface does not emit any LWIR radiation to deep space???
For your benefit: the human eye is not capable of seeing LWIR . . . either from Earth’s surface or from space looking downward toward Earth.
Check it out with any credible web AI bot, if you wish.
So no, I am not colour-blind . . . just using (and most importantly UNDERSTANDING) the limits of vision that God gave me.
ROTFL
P.S. Actually, from space, the human eye can see the full range of visible light, including the browns, reds and yellows of earth’s surface not covered by vegetation, the green colors of forests and open fields of vegetation, the blues of oceans and the atmosphere, and the whites of snow and atmospheric clouds.
P.S. Actually, from space, the human eye can see the full range of visible light, including the browns, reds and yellows of earth’s surface not covered by vegetation,
The point is that there is a substantial amount of SW insolation that is reflected back into space in order for us to “see” different colors. What is the full spectrum reflected by clouds that appear white?
I am at a loss to explain why that includes many highly educated voters
Because very few are educated in anything that would allow them to judge the science. Right off the bat you can exclude all the literature/politics/classics/furniture-design majors. That’s getting on for half of them. Even among those educated in a science you can probably exclude a big fraction.
I will admit here that I grow more confident of an old speculation of mine: many people do well in education because they are adept at appearing educated. You don’t tug at loose threads when you can’t.
“Because very few are educated in anything that would allow them to judge the science.”
I think that is right. People depend on “consensus” when the topic is out of their element. They look to the established authorities of Society to help them form an opinion.
Unfortunately, they don’t get the truth about CO2 from our current “voices of authority”, who are not interested in the truth but in political ideology.
May 10, 2026 4:29 am
The “Global Warming Potential” [GWP] is commonly used by the media to tell
us how many times more powerful Methane is at trapping heat compared to CO2.
Rewording Dr. James Hansen’s Quote from IPCC AR4 Chapter 8 Page 631 as a question:
Ask Google AI:
If atmospheric CO2 were to double with no feedbacks operating (but allowing
for the enhanced radiative cooling resulting from the temperature increase),
the global warming from GCMs would be about how much in Celsius? *
Answer
Without feedbacks, doubling CO2 would cause about 1.2C of global warming.
Ask Google AI:
In the absence of climate feedbacks, a doubling of atmospheric Methane would
result in approximately how much in Celsius? *
Answer
Without feedbacks, doubling Methane would cause about 0.2°C to 0.3° of global warming.
That makes CO2 About ~5 times as powerful at trapping heat than Methane.
IPCC AR4 Chapter 2 page 210 (pdf82) tells us that the Global Warming Potential (GWP) of
component greenhouse gas is defined by:
AR6 Chapter 7 Page 1017 pdf95 Table 7.15
IPCC AR6 says methne is 82.5 times more powerful than CO2 at trapping heat:
* Exact wording submitted to Google AI
Harold The Organic Chemist Says:
ATTN: Steve
RE: CO2 and CH4 Do Not Cause Warming of Air!
Shown in the chart (See below) is a plot of the annual mean temperature in Adelaide from 1857 to 1999. In 1857 the concentration of CO2 was ca. 280 ppmv (0.52 g CO2/cu. m. of air), and by 1999 it had increased to 368 ppmv (0.72 g CO2/cu. m. of air), but there was no corresponding increase in air temperature in this port city. Instesd there was a slight cooling that began in ca. 1940. Darwin had a similar cooling. In 1857 Tav was 17.2° C, and by 1999 it had declined to 16.7° C.
For recent Adelaide temperatures data, I went to:
https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/adelaide/average-temperature-by-year. The Thi and Tlo temperature data 1887 to 2025 are displayed in long table. The computed Tav was 17.4° C. Since temperature measurement error is +/-0.1° C, it is concluded that there has been no warming of air in Adelaide since 1857 and that CO2 does not cause warming of air in Adelaide. The reason there was no warming of air is quite simple: there is too little CO2 in the air to absorb out-going long wavelength IR light emanating from the earth’s surface. At the MLO in Hawaii, the concentration of CO2 in 2025 was ca. 427 ppmv (0.84 g CO2/cu. m. of air).
The above empirical data and calculations falsifies the claims since 1988 by the IPCC that CO2 causes “global warming” and is the “control knob of climate”. These ideas about the global warming potential of CO2 and the climate change forcing of CO2 are nonsense.
RE: CH4
At the MLO in Hawaii, the concentration of CH4 in dry air 1.9 ppmv. One cubic meter of this has a mass 1,290 g and contains 0.0019 g of CH4. This small amount of CH4 can cause no warming of the large mass of air. The reason there so little CH4 in the air is that it combustion is initiated by discharge of lightning. There are about 8 million discharges of lightning everyday. CH4 is slightly soluble in ice cold water. One liter can hold 33 ml of CH4. Much CH4 is removed from the air by dissolution in cold polar waters.
PS: The chart was taken from the late Joh. L. Daly’s website:
“Still Waiting for Greenhouse” available at:
http://www.john-daly.com. From the home page, go to the end and click on “Station Temperature Data”. On the “World Map” click on
“Australia”. There is displayed a list of weather stations. Click on “Adelaide”. Click on the back arrow to display the list of stations. Click on the back arrow again to displays the “World Map”. John Daly found over 200 weather stations that showed no warming up to 2002.
NB: If you click on the chart, it will expand and become clear. Click on the “X” in the circle to contract the chart and return to Comments.
Thanks for the reply. I’m interested in demonstrations that that illustrate the ridiculousness of the GWP numbers. Methane clearly is not 82 times more powerful at trapping heat. Simple check of its infrared absorption spectrum should tell you that, but Dr. John Houghton continues from the grave to get away with his colossal deception.
An AI search, no surprise, says Houghton denied he ever said it. Anyway, looks like the GWP numbers are designed to do exactly that.
The GWP numbers use mass instead of volume which is the standard for metrics involving chemical calculations for a gas¹. Using mass results in a bigger number for methane. If you can think of any other reason for Houghton to do that, I’d like to hear it.
¹ 22.4 liters @STP is a mole of a gas
May 10, 2026 4:56 am
There is a book to be written if anyone has time and energy. It would be called ‘The Psychology of Political Incompetence’, by comparison to Dixon’s book of a similar title about military incompetence. It needs to cover a similar set of topics and questions.
Why, for instance, does an intelligent man like Ed Miliband in the UK keep on claiming that the country can run on wind and solar generation, and that it will be cheaper and more secure than conventional power generation? It is obvious that its impossible and not true. At some level this must be clear to him. And yet he somehow manages to avoid admitting it either in public pronouncements or policy. Its analogous to the disastrous military decisions documented by Dixon, where the facts and their implications were obvious to all except the man in charge whose orders led to disaster. And yet that man was for the most part perfectly intelligent enough to see the facts, but somehow could not bear to admit them. Not stupidity, but what?
Why is it that Miliband is unremovable? It must be obvious to his colleagues and his Prime Minister that its not going to work, cannot work. Starmer has tried to replace him, and failed. How is this possible, when the PM is the sole person in charge of who his ministers are?
Why is there this weird group think about topics where people say things they obviously know to be false? Starmer and Ed Davey (head of the Liberals) have both claimed that some women have penises. The British Deputy PM has claimed that men can grow a cervix. How on earth can they get away with such idiocies? Why is there not a chorus of ridicule when they say this stuff? Why on earth does Starmer think that part of the answer to his problems is to appoint Harriet Harmon as advisor? Someone who doesn’t seem to know what a woman is, who is being asked to advise on safeguarding for women and girls? How is this possible?
Why is there such tolerance of incompetence? Its obvious to the Labour Party in the wake of the elections of last week that keeping Starmer in office is a hiding to nowhere – continuing like this for another two or three years in the face of the ferocious dislike of him that manifests itself on doorsteps has a real chance of leading to a total wipeout of the Labour Party. Yet they will do nothing, and people keep on saying they do not want the chaos of a leadership contest. What do they think they have now?
They all show up on the media rounds proclaiming that there is going to be a reset and change. But without seeming to have any idea of what they are going to change. They don’t realize that their electorate may want change, but the change they want is a reversal of the change the government has inflicted on them in the last two years. Do they really think that the public wants more borrowing, more taxation, more throwing money away on welfare and the state sector unions, more concessions to the EU? More anti-semitic attacks, more shoplifting, more immigration, with the arrivals going straight on welfare? Where do they get these ideas, and why do not the ones who can see how idiotic it all is speak up? And why do they not see that this is what is losing them their voters – areas which have been Labour for 100 years are moving to Reform, and giving as their reasoning all of the above but mainly Keir Starmer. Who they cannot bear to challenge or remove as head of the party.
In military terms, you might think its wrong of the enemy to mount a night attack, but if he is, get ready to meet it. This is the equivalent of deciding that night attacks are not cricket and so we will stand the men down.
What a spectacle. I guess it could have examples from other countries equally pointed. Why, for instance, did the Democrats in the US nominate probably the only candidate who could not defeat Trump? Why did they then disastrously pretend that Biden was fully competent when it was obvious to all of them that he just wasn’t? Putin’s war would be another, though information is very scanty on the decision making process.
Dixon has pointed the way to the kind of thing that is needed. He is overly Freudian (a topic in itself) but his approach is right, its a real effort to get to the bottom of group and individual behaviors and their interactions in an institutional setting, and the failures they can lead to. Please, someone, write it! I really want to know the answer. What is it about political life that leads to the promotion of incompetents and the group acquiescence in their disastrous decisions?
There are disturbing links between Labour, Starmer and paedophilia. Savile, Mandelson, and others as Director of Public Prosecutions and as a politician.
His appointment of Harriet Harman continues the trend. She was a lawyer for The National Council for Civil Liberties (NCCL) a rights advocacy institution now known as Liberty.
This report came when the facts started tumbling out in 2014
…she has refused to acknowledge the disturbing reality that, in parts of the radical Left in Eighties Britain, there was a climate of opinion which held that paedophiles were an oppressed minority deserving support rather than condemnation.
…
a Press release issued in March 1976 by the NCCL, which proposed that the official age of consent should by lowered to 14 and even be dropped to ten in cases where ‘the consent of the child’ could ‘be proved’.
…
Just as disturbingly, the NCCL wanted to decriminalise incest ‘when committed between mutually consenting persons’. Effectively, it wanted to legalise child abuse and depravity. – Daily Mail
Fear not, there is a stalking horse of sorts…
Challenge Starmer by Monday or I will, Labour MP tells cabinet – BBC
See my comment concerning this topic here.
Ed Miliband is a Young Global Leader (YGL), a WEF initiative launched in 2004 for under-40 leaders nominated by alumni, this is a selective community membership. The YGL program involves networking and events rather than structured “training” like courses or certificates; participants are already prominent figures vetted for leadership, emphasizing diversity, a global perspective and impact on global challenges. It aligns with WEF’s “stakeholder capitalism,” which urges businesses to balance shareholder profits with interests of employees, communities, and the environment for long-term sustainability.
YGL is a “globalist” network influencing policy (e.g., Schwab’s comment on “penetrating” cabinets), but official materials stress voluntary impact. YGL focuses on climate change and environmental issues like air pollution reduction, nature economy harmonization, and climate resilience; health concerns including disease prevention.
YGLs participate in targeted programs like the 2022 Princeton course on advancing the global energy transition, emphasizing wind, solar, energy efficiency, net-zero fuels, and carbon capture to limit warming to 1.5°C. They collaborate on clean energy innovations, job creation in renewables, and sustainable systems planning. Miliband’s policy influence (e.g., net zero push) draws criticism as WEF-aligned.
Kemi Badenoch and others blame the focus on renewables for rising home and factory energy costs and industrial decline, but sources attribute this more to financial crisis and North Sea depletion.
Jobs fell to ~2.6 million by 2024 from automation/import competition and net zero. High energy costs (25p/kWh industrial electricity, Europe’s highest) post-2008 Climate Change Act amendments, steel output halving to 4Mt, and 150k+ jobs lost since 2019, from coal phase-out, ETS taxes, and renewables prioritization. Emissions dropped 50% since 1990, but trade deficits in chemicals/fuels ballooned.
May 10, 2026 7:17 am
A somewhat naive question. Do the findings of this paper https://doi.org/10.3389/fspas.2026.1797886 have any relevance/significance or be applicable to the non anthropogenic causes of climate change?
Language is being tortured here! Climate is a word invented by people to share the idea what the weather, taken over a human lifetime, is like in this part of the world.
It has always been, is, and always will be part of what humans are experiencing as features of existence outside of their control.
May 10, 2026 7:33 am
How much can Colorado Law Makers (recipients of Bloomberg money) distrust voters?
Enough to use legislation to limit a possible Constitutional Amendment:
https://coloradosun.com/2026/05/08/colorado-lawmakers-counter-natural-gas-ballot-measure/
Oh wait, the Constitutional Amendment would still supersede the Legislation…
May 10, 2026 7:51 am
Norway hates it’s environmentalists? Depends on who you ask:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/09/norway-oil-and-gas-production-shortages-middle-east-ukraine
Myself, I think they just know how and where to make money for their Sovereign Fund. You know, like a profitable business rather than a piece in the sky charity.
May 10, 2026 8:49 am
michel said in a comment above: “There is a book to be written if anyone has time and energy. It would be called ‘The Psychology of Political Incompetence’ ….., .”
Keir Starmer and Ed Miliband, and their minions in the Labour Party, are the sociopathic overlords of the United Kingdom.
In this 27-minute YouTube video, Glen Morgan, founder of We the Governed here in Washington state, goes into great depth in explaining why government attracts sociopathic personalities. Not only the politicians, but the bureaucrats who run the institutions below them:
Government today is filled with Sociopaths. What can we do about it?
Much of the explanation michel seeks for why we see so many sociopaths in government is to be found in that Glen Morgan video.
The video also explains how sociopathic personality traits influence government policies and programs, especially those policies and programs pushing fantasy outcomes; for example, creating a mostly wind and solar power grid.
May 10, 2026 10:00 am
Hmm, it seems to me one of the best ways to fight inequality is cost effective energy policies rather than chasing Unicorn Flatulence:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/may/08/inequality-extra-deaths-heat-cold-europe-climate
May 10, 2026 1:41 pm
I like the Open Thread but I do miss when it would drift into more “Climate Neutral” topics such as, say, The Battle of Jutland, favorite movies, how to repair a Lionel train, bird feeders and other OT subjects.
I’m not complaining, just mentioning something I’ve missed that was often another avenue to learn something from those less ignorant than I. 😎
May 11, 2026 5:13 am
What with all the revelations about UFO’s these days, news from Minneapolis:
