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By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
Willie Soon sends me a fascinating paper by Beenstock et al. on sea-level rise. Beenstock, famous for taking a down-to-earth approach to climate issues, asked the question how much warming the tide gauges show if one does not tamper with them.
The official sea level data are fiddled by an artifice known as the “global isostatic adjustment”. The inconvenient truth that sea level is not changing much must be concealed, so an enormous, bogus addition to the actual trend is made.
The excuse for this overblown addition, which accounts for a very large fraction of the difference between the satellite and tide-gauge records, is that the land is still rising and the sea sinking because of the transfer of miles-thick ice from the land to the oceans that ended 9000 years ago. Therefore, the story goes, sea level would be falling were it not for global warming.
Hey presto! Sea level rise is instantly made to accelerate.
Niklas Mörner calls these tamperings “personal calibrations” – a polite form for what is in essence fiction. After all, in the century to 1950, we could not have had any significant influence on climate or on sea level. Yet sea level rose.
In the past decade or two sea level has not really been rising much, as the Envisat and then the Grace satellites confirmed, suggesting that all of the major global temperature records are correct in showing that global temperature has not been rising recently.
So there is no particular anthropogenic reason for ocean heat content to rise appreciably. Those who say, with the relentlessly wrong-about-everything Kevin Trenberth, that “the ocean ate my global warming” are simply wrong.
Meanwhile, the Pause continues. The RSS satellite data for April 2014 are now available. The updated graph shows no global warming for 17 years 9 months.
Enjoy The Pause while it lasts. A Kelvin wave is galloping across the Pacific, and the usual suspects would be praying for a super El Niño if they had the sense to credit the Old Religion rather than the New Superstition. Already the well-paid extremists are predicting a new record annual mean surface temperature either in 2014 or in 2015.
Their prediction for 2014 will probably not come true. Four months without any warming make it difficult to imagine that this will be a record year for global temperature, though it is barely possible.
The notion of a new record temperature next year is less implausible, particularly if there is a strong or prolonged el Niño followed by a weak la Niña. As Roy Spencer points out on his hard-headed and ever-sensible blog, all things being equal one would expect temperature records to be broken from time to time, for CO2 is accumulating in the atmosphere and some warming – eventually – is to be expected.
However, as the also hard-headed Dick Lindzen points out, the new record, when it happens, will be hundredths of a degree above the old, and it will be well within the natural variability of the climate. When warming eventually resumes, probably towards the end of this year, for El Niño is a seasonal event, it will probably not be much to write home about. And the following La Niña may cancel much of it. But that will not prevent the usual suspects from screeching that It’s Worse Than We Ever Thought.
Beenstock knocks that one on the head. Here is his conclusion about the rate of sea level rise: “Consensus estimates of recent GMSL rise are about 2mm/year. Our estimate is 1mm/year. We suggest that the difference between the two estimates is induced by the widespread use of data reconstructions which inform the consensus estimates.”
In short, They made stuff up. Again. And neither the politicians nor the journalists asked any of the right questions.
When Niklas Mörner was invited a couple of years ago to give a presentation on sea-level rise at an international climate conference in Cambridge, he arranged for a copy of a paper by him for the layman to be circulated. The organizers agreed, but the moment they saw the title, Sea Level Is Not Rising, they not only refused to allow the paper to be circulated – without actually reading it – but went round collecting the few samizdat copies that had already reached the delegates.
This offensive and now routine intolerance of what is now daily being confirmed as the objective truth should not be tolerated for a moment longer.
Well do it, and stop complaining. You’ve proven you are a bigot and misguided and hilariously had the stupidity to publish it on a international site. I’m not interested in your agenda, the truth will out.
Lol, whatever. Sorry if I interrupted your cheer-leading.
Phillip, a bit of advice, do you remember a passage from the ‘Godfather’, a hit man caused a road accident, and immediately got out and started attacking the not at fault driver. He picked on the police commissioner! Many of the posters on this site, have back grounds and experience you obviously are unaware of. For example, I have worked for politicians, hold two degrees, and a diploma in organic agriculture production, plus more certificates in organic production and horticulture. I’ve worked for the media, published a book on life in the bush from a city slicker’s point of view.
I don’t hold with anti British republican nonsense, that is ill informed. So be a nice guy, and sensible one and shut up! I’m not interested in your rambling on and attacks on me and others. They are like water off a ducks back.
But being a female I would like the last word. Thanks Anthony for your patience.
Lol, are you still trying to intimidate me? Good luck with that…. How about some more legal threats on behalf of other people. That might do the trick.
Phil. says:
May 7, 2014 at 10:13 am
David A says:
May 7, 2014 at 7:51 am
Phil, any reference to Monckton’s peerage is trolling, and 100% entirely not relevant to the post.
Anthony would be doing a huge favor to have any future discussion of this off limits, as it is 100% irrelevant to the purpose of this blog.
No problem as long as that includes Monckton since it was his statement that I was responding to.
REPLY: Phil, Monckton at least has the courage to put his name to his opinions. We’ve been over this before, you are an academic at a major University, too timid to do so for fear that it might affect your tenured gravy train.
As I’ve told you before the reason for not using my full name is because I have had problems in the past due to spam attacks which disrupted communications with my students etc. It has nothing to do with a hypothetical ‘tenured gravy train’!
As I said above I have no problem with this subject being off limits
REPLY: Right, sure, whatever. But I don’t buy it. Putting your name on a comment doesn’t link to your email, so there is NO POSSIBILITY of it being the source of a SPAM attack. If this was a problem, the millions of WordPress users who DO use their own names with comments would be up in arms and demanding a change…but in the decade that WordPress has been running, that has not happened.
So, what will be your excuse now?
-Anthony
Phil. says:
May 8, 2014 at 7:54 am
REPLY: Right, sure, whatever. But I don’t buy it. Putting your name on a comment doesn’t link to your email, so there is NO POSSIBILITY of it being the source of a SPAM attack. If this was a problem, the millions of WordPress users who DO use their own names with comments would be up in arms and demanding a change…but in the decade that WordPress has been running, that has not happened.
So, what will be your excuse now?
I was surprised that it could happen that way but the person and subject were unequivocally linked to posting on a certain website (not this one). Subsequently I have followed the advice of the IT department and not given my full name on any site. Some names are more easily found on engines such as Google I guess.
And the white pages.
Is it so hard to believe Anthony? Why did you redact my home address earlier in this thread unless you thought it could be used to cause me problems? Phil is a more likely target that I am, and you definitely have more than enough nutcases frequent this site. I find your extreme skepticism a little hard to fathom regarding this matter.
Don’t worry Phillip, when I received the initial email, your address was not retracted, I often get them before they appear on the site. I’m not a nut case, thank you very much. If you were egotistical enough and stupid to put in your address on an international site, that is read my thousands around the world, you are inviting dissent closer to home. There are somethings one must be careful not to reveal. Because cyber space goes on for ever. Anthony did the right thing. Simply, you made yourself a target knowingly. I’ve had threats not recently though, because letters to the editor/s always prints ones name and suburb, then all people have to do is look in the white pages to get my address. One really threatening letter was reported to the police and the man was mentally disturbed, and was warned by the cops to desist. It was not about the climate change either, but defending a gay man who committed suicide.
Back to the thread, land does drop. But generally nature has the 70% factor. I can’t remember what though, so much water kept in ice, so much in the atmosphere, and so much in surface water and so much in the oceans, and humans have 70% of water too in their bodies. Ironically the evaporation rate in Australia during the last glacial period was that surface water did not evaporate and sea levels were much lower than today. South Australia had lake Mungo, and plenty of billabongs. But 5,000 years ago it had volcanic eruptions and Aborigines note this in the dream time history and geological evidence proved it. And they also had tsunamis.
What was that equation about proportions of water on our planet. If sea levels have reached their peak, there is only one way to go now, down.
[trimmed. language, off-topic, irrelevent. Mod]
And, what exactly do you think I was trying to say in the post you were responding to?
“Don’t worry Phillip, when I received the initial email, your address was not retracted, I often get them before they appear on the site. I’m not a nut case, thank you very much. If you were egotistical enough and stupid to put in your address on an international site, that is read my thousands around the world, you are inviting dissent closer to home. There are somethings one must be careful not to reveal. Because cyber space goes on for ever. Anthony did the right thing. Simply, you made yourself a target knowingly. I’ve had threats not recently though, because letters to the editor/s always prints ones name and suburb, then all people have to do is look in the white pages to get my address. One really threatening letter was reported to the police and the man was mentally disturbed, and was warned by the cops to desist. It was not about the climate change either, but defending a gay man who committed suicide.”
Seriously, what are you on about? What is your point exactly? This makes about as much sense as it did when you were rambling on about royalty and republicanism.
LOL, is English your second language? Thanks for repeating what I said again, gee this man is a negative attention seeker..
Oh you talk word good, just it is impossible to figure out what you point is. Seriously, what exactly is your point. If you can’t say it in a couple of lines, you probably haven’t got a clue what it is yourself. What meaning was I suppose to take from that post exactly?
Well that’s your problem Phillip, don’t try to get me into another argument, I’ve seen and heard it all before. You are antagonizing and bloody boring. This is becoming just a personal attack on me too. So buzz off, so can you understand that? Maybe Anthony can translate?
“This is becoming just a personal attack on me too.”
Get over yourself. You’ve had a lot more to say about my character than I have you. Have you forgotten everything you posted already?
Anthony and mod. His comments are becoming argumentative and irrelevant to this thread.