Rampant BSOD’s expected in a warmer future?
Guest essay by Eric Worrall
In a mind aching exercise in recursion, the United Nations’ International Telecommunication Union has released a report based on computer projections of future climate change, to provide direction on how climate change will affect computers.
According to the report:
“That path forward must be low-carbon and high-resilience. We must move on curbing emissions to mitigate climate effects and we must move to adapt to the climate impacts we know are coming. Technology and ICT in particular is a powerful force that can put us squarely on the path to a climate resilient future.”
Computer infrastructure owners are advised to find ways to reduce emissions, and are warned they will have to prepare for greater climatic extremes – so where possible, cables should be buried underground, and short range radio links should be considered to improve resilience. The report also mentions the risk of supply chain disruption, and risks to support personnel forced to endure severe weather while travelling to perform their duties.
Some other interesting highlights:-
Plans to expand UN bureaucracy:-
“In the current setting, UNESCO is working towards the establishment of a Climate Change Consortium with the aim of supporting the professionalization of public and private decision-makers. Within the context of global development, the Consortium will implement a leadership training programme on best practices and comprehensive decision-making on scientific and managerial issues related to sustainable development, its economic and social aspects.”
Section 1.1.6 mentions changes in snow and ice
“The IPCC Fourth Assessment Synthesis Report does not specifically mention ice storms in the context of climate change but it is mentioned in Reference20 as “an extreme event with a large spatial scale (as in an ice storm or windstorm) which can have an exaggerated, disruptive impact due to the systemic societal dependence on electricity transmission and distribution networks”.
and in section 4.2.7:-
“No information could be found on the change of risk of ice storms and heavy snowfall due to climate change. However, it seems likely that extreme events are increasing as a consequence of climate change. A recent example of the consequences of ice storm is noted in the New York area. ”
So no “end of snow” prediction in this report, at least.
Section 5.1 contains a suggestion that the electricity grid may be less reliable in the future:-
“Decouple communication infrastructure from electric grid infrastructure to the extent possible, and make both more robust, resilient, and redundant. ”
Source:
http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-T/climatechange/Documents/Publications/Resilient_Pathways-E.PDF
As I said, most of the report appears to be general advice to make computer and communication infrastructure more resilient – increasing backup power supply capacity and duration, making linkages between systems more robust, improving adaptability to outages, that kind of thing.
I can’t help feeling though, that the UN is missing the real risk to global IT and communications infrastructure, by focusing attention on the climate non-issue. The real risk being the very real possibility of another Carrington event, which, when it occurs, will destroy much of the world’s electronic infrastructure in just a few seconds.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859
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So we must prepare for what has always happened in the past….um, on then. Do I owe the un some cash for telling me this? 😈😈😈
At least, not solar storm threatens, because activity drops significantly.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/SatEnv.gif
The alarmist claims keep getting crazier and crazier the longer there is no global warming. They realize time is running out. Already 80% of Americans don’t consider global warming a threat and in a couple of years it will be a complete joke.
re: Eric Worrall says April 29, 2014 at 5:40 am
… “And it wouldn’t just be large structures, silicon chips are very sensitive to voltage spikes, as anyone who has ever bought as surge protector knows – as an amateur electronics enthusiast, I’m well aware of how easy they are to damage.”
Unawares of the designed-in intrinsic immunity to ESD of basic devices? Designers are also supplied guidance by chip designers/manufacturers for designing systems with the capability to handle higher levels of ESD and EMI, for instance see this design guide by TI: “System-Level ESD/EMI Protection Guide”: http://www.ti.com/lit/sg/sszb130b/sszb130b.pdf
Things have improved markedly in the last decade and a half in regards to consumer device ESD (and by extension EMP) survivability.
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I guess the keywords here are “global development” and the programming “of public and private decision-makers.” The debate was settled years ago, we’ve been told.
Shouldn’t the IPCC be investigated for dragging this dead dog around the halls of the UN? I guess it comes under diplomatic immunity.
Paul
““No information could be found on the change of risk of ice storms and heavy snowfall due to climate change. However, it seems likely that extreme events are increasing as a consequence of climate change.”
IOW: data to the contrary notwithstanding….we ‘think’ otherwise.
” professionalization of public and private decision-makers.”
Eric, you missed the most sinister part of all. Professionalization means you have to become expert in a body of “knowledge” on sustainability, pass exams and become accredited to practice public and PRIVATE decision making. Even when the anti-free enterprise guerilla Maurice Strong dies, he has left a legacy and chain of clones that will be harassing us for generations. Imagine, when the sheeple go for this “reasonable” idea, we would have to be “qualified” to even run our own businesses. The devil is always in these kinds of details of the motherhood-seeming Agenda 21
This is not climate “craziness” but propaganda in a deliberate attempt to foster misinformation and alarmism. Here is the reason why skeptics need to organize, the better to resist such attempts by the UN and other official orgs and ogres.
UN Climate Expert Certification Test (300 questions)
1) Is human-caused global warming destroying the planet and all life as we know it?
.
.
.
300) …
Computer test checking code:
10: if Answer(1) == true
20: print “Pass”
30: else
40: print “Fail”
0: end
_Jim
EMI is a radio frequency (RF) (800 MHz to 2 GHz) disturbance that affects an electrical circuit due to electromagnetic conduction from an external source . EMI can be avoided by using EMI filters that eliminate RF noise and maintain signal integrity
EMI is low energy voltage ripples from say the local radio station, or a bit of leakage from your microwave oven. A Carrington scale event is a series of spikes of hundreds, even thousands of volts, occurring repeatedly for minutes or hours, appearing across even a few metres of conductor, including the copper tracks in circuit boards.
A bit of ferrite and some tinfoil on the case is not going to stop that kind of abuse. Remember, for equipment to fail, just one component has to break. It might be repairable – but where do you start? Whatever happens, there will be a lot of cleanup.
@ur momisugly John McClure April 29, 2014 at 6:05 am
I refer you to the thorough disregard to our constitution as exhibit A of how paper barriers are completely ineffective at keeping the State (and their bureaucratic offspring) in check. The only way to do so is to eliminate them. Then we will be free.
The only “climate change” that affects computers is when idiots try to run them against the wall under a desk.
Eric Worrall says April 29, 2014 at 8:16 am
… “EMI is low energy voltage ripples from …”
But, ESD is not … pls read more of the references supplies, esp the TI design guide linked above …
Also note the testimony from STANLEY J. JAKUBIAK about commercial COTS equipment. I think you are failing to comprehend just how robust consumer equipment really is (for instance: TV sets and CRT monitors operated routinely with voltages of between 15 and 25 KV! Even LCD monitors and many laptops to this point require an ‘inductively’ induced ‘striking’ voltage of several KV to ‘start’ a CCFL (Cold Cathode Fluorescent Lamp) tube used as the backligh for Liquid Crystal Displays in many monitors and laptops.
Please also view the video above by Dr. Girgis of ABB. A LOT has been learned from the event in 1989 … given your response it does not appear you viewed the video with the attendant graphs and charts detailing the event over time as it occurred in 1989 …
I’m going to make the assumption you’re not a EE, never worked in an EMI or EMI susceptibility lab, hence the appearance that aa lot of this info seems ‘new’. I routinely operate transmitting radio equipment that will cause properly positioned, unconnected 4′ fluorescent lamps to light due to the high E-field environment (operating AM or SSB phone near legal limit RF power on 80 meters under one leg of a 1/2 Lambda dipole) and have yet to have any equipment ‘fry’ or quit on account of the exposure to the strong RF field! Do the PC speakers ‘bark’ from the RF? Yes, they do … and that is about the only effect beside the CRT monitor changing brilliance at a the ‘voice’ or speaking rate!
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When you can’t find peer reviewed scientific evidence this is what you say.
mpainter says:
April 29, 2014 at 7:36 am
This is not climate “craziness” but propaganda in a deliberate attempt to foster misinformation and alarmism. Here is the reason why skeptics need to organize, the better to resist such attempts by the UN and other official orgs and ogres.
========
mpainter,
Its not the UN, our USA leadership is at fault for allowing these types of programs to invade the US without proper due-diligence. In many cases, federal government actually encourages the programs. Its our fault for electing them to office and allowing them to enact legislation which is counter to US interests and individual rights.
If you want to prevent these programs, start with your own town and work your way up to State government. States control Congress, not Washington politicians and NGOs.
To governor Brown’s credit, Redevelopment Corporations have been banned in California.
John McClure says:
April 29, 2014 at 6:05 am
“Am I missing something?”
Proper mind set. There is a room in the basement of the NYC UN building where it is wet and dark, and the fellows there know how to make adjustments.
Yes, John McClure,
But elected officials are more mindful of organizations than individuals. Organize now.
Any estimation of what levels of voltage and current will be generated in the thousands of miles of assorted wire and cable if a Carrington level CME strikes?
““No information could be found on the change of risk of ice storms and heavy snowfall due to climate change. However, it seems likely that extreme events are increasing as a consequence of climate change.”
Come again? Aren’t these two sentences an example of a classic non-sequitur?
Why does it ‘seem likely’? Do they have any evidence to show that extreme events are increasing? Because it just ‘feels’ like it should be that way? It seems to me that, based on no evidence one way or the other it is equally true to assert that, “However, it seems likely that extreme events are decreasing as a consequence of climate change.”
A circuit is required to to generate a current.
However, it seems likely that hemorrhoids are increasing as a consequence of climate change.
Does UNESCO run SCIgen or did they subcontract the execution to Ike Antkare?
Jim, check out the following video, from Future Weapons. It includes an actual demonstration of a what an EMP pulse can do to a car – they use a test facility to generate a small scale EMP pulse and drive a car through it.
The electric windows survive, the fragile electronics do not.
Some systems will survive. But a lot wont.
Sorry and here’s the video 🙂