Bob Tisdale recently took some of the early wailers to task over the expected El Niño this year, saying:
I knew it wouldn’t take long. The 2014/15 El Niño has yet to form and there’s already a well-commented blog post about it that spreads more speculative nonsense than one would think possible.
So, I thought it might be time to do some forecasting of our own. First, some basics,
From Tisdales recent article, we have this graph showing another model vs. reality divergence.
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NOTHING IN THE INSTRUMENT TEMPERATURE RECORD INDICATES ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING HAS HAD ANY IMPACT ON THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC IN 32+ YEARS
El Niño events take place in the tropical Pacific. Figure 1 is a model-data comparison of the sea surface temperature anomalies of the tropical Pacific since the start of the Reynolds OI.v2 satellite-enhanced sea surface temperature dataset in November 1981. The models are represented by the multi-model ensemble-member mean of the climate models stored in the CMIP5 archive, which was used by the IPCC for their 5th assessment report. (Figure 1 is from the post Maybe the IPCC’s Modelers Should Try to Simulate Earth’s Oceans. See that post for further information.) According to the most current generation of climate models—the latest and greatest climate models—if manmade greenhouse gases warmed the sea surface temperatures of the tropical Pacific, they should have warmed about 0.58 deg C over the past 32+ years, based on the linear trend. But the observed sea surface temperatures of the tropical Pacific show little warming in 32+ years.
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When/if a large or super El Niño forms, you know the usual suspects will try to link it to global warming/climate change. It is as certain as the sun rising in the morning.
So, readers are invited to create statements/headlines that they think are likely to appear in the media, and when we get a hit on one of those, we’ll refer back to this WUWT article and point out that it was expected, but there’s just no linkage.
My contribution is:
Trenberth told us that heat hiding in the ocean would jump out and burn us in the future, and he was right!
Happy headlining!
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If it doesn’t happen…………
El Nino, El Nono but if it does
HELL NINO
Super Giant El Niño causes world economic chaos and war.
The NATO economic powers that be are about to unleash Economic Hounds From Hell on Russia. Drive the Ruble into the ground, bankrupt RUSAL & a few others and kill their bond market. Risk of ‘gas wars’ grows as Ukraine halts payments.
Ukraine prepares armed response as city seized by pro-Russia forces
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSBREA3A1B520140412
Things are getting dicey…
If bank Q1 results continue disappointing and primary industries do too it’s not looking good. Especially if China and Japan economic stats continue breathtaking drops as seen this week, EU & US will follow.
This thou predictionictess hath presently been previously doneth
Needeth I sayeth moreth?
No warming in the global temperature no warming on the sea surface. It’s really no fun to beat down the alarmists anymore, they’re just too easy of a target.
Here are the only possibilities related to the El Nino:
“Warming Planet Leads To Record Breaking Strong El Nino”
“Warming Planet Leads To Record Breaking Weak El Nino”
“Warming Planet Leads To Normal El Nino”
“Warming Planet Leads to Disappearance of Expected El Nino”
No matter what happens with the El Nino, the headlines will blame it on global warming.
TACO HELL:
El Nino Supreme
“Send us $10 Trillion Immediately Or Everybody Dies”
EL NINO MODOKI
EL NINO MODOKI
EL NINO MODOKI
The first headline: “Super El Niño proves man-made climate change”
Followed 3-4 months later: ” Chance of full El Nino fades as winds shift”
then 2 months later “Possible La Niña forming”
No prediction till at least May and June are behind us. Read the literature.
Scientists were right: no El Niño this year means it’s still to come!
or
El Niño: Scientist Say We Told You So!
or
No El Niño this year: climate sceptics debunked at last!
or
Worst El Niño ever: climate sceptics debunked at last!
“2014 El Nino proves that Earth is angry, scientists say. It may already be too late.”
“Recent El Nino is a ominous sign of things to come as heat buried in oceans due to global warming surfaces. The pause is officially over and will never return unless drastic action is taken by the countries whose people live with lots of civil rights and money.”
“Climate scientist John Cook has been warning everyone about the amount of heat equivalent to Hiroshima bombs we are adding to our atmosphere daily. ‘I am become El Nino, the destroyer of worlds,’ says John Cook, a reference to the famous J. Robert Oppenheimer quote after the first American atomic bomb test.”
“Global Warming Bubbles to the Surface!”
“It’s on the loose. It’s out there. It’s coming for you.”
“We’re all going to fry. We need urgent action. We need more money, Tax everything!”
Etc., etc.
Headlines to expect regardless of El Niño outcome:
1. El Niño: Climate change deniers left speechless
2. Climate deniers scurry for cover as El Niño takes unexpected turn
3. 97% of scientists agree that climate change responsible for El Niño.
4. Scientists fear climate change may cause El Niño to move to North Atlantic
Global Warming Causes Record Rainfall in California, Produce Prices Tumbler After Record Harvest.
Knee jerk quick idiocy.
Killer Klimate Kompels Konfiscation
Climate Shatters – Governments Respond
SkepticGate Exposes Deniers Hate
Climate Models Call For Marshall Law
Earth’s Fever Worries Universe
Al Gore Visits Federation of Planets
Climate Changes Fresh Water Evaporates to Space
HELLFIRE! GLOBAL WARMING ERUPTS IN FURY! DEATH TOLL INCREASING!
(photo of a dying man on a sizzling Paris sidewalk)
(It was just an alcoholic sleeping it off, it is revealed a couple of months later)
I guess I should thank Sou for all of the unexpected traffic today at my blog…
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2014/04/13/checking-work/
…and for some of the book sales. I think I’ll go out a buy a steak to grill for dinner tonight. Thanks, Sou.
Hansen will no doubt be wheeled out to tell us that we only have “4 years left…” yet again.
Headlines:
• NASA GISS says El Niño marks the end of the “pause”
• El Niño fades before the California rainy season
• California AG interests despair over dry winter
Smokey says:
April 13, 2014 at 7:03 am
> ANYWAYS, use these () instead of these ([ ]). ^_^
I generally just recommend that people read my Guide to WUWT, see the right-side nav bar or the “Test” link in the top nav bar.
That way I don’t have to type < and &rt; 🙂
http://home.comcast.net/~ewerme/wuwt/index.html
Or mistype >.
Oops.
“Joe Bastardi suggests that although there will be fewer hurricanes next fall, the few that do develop are likely to form in close to the USA coast, and even may create a situation resembling 1954, when the east coast got Carol, Edna and Hazel. ”
Bastardi is a climate skeptic of course, but he’s also an inveterate alarmist. He predicts east coast hurricane Armageddon every year. One of these years he’ll be right, and he’ll cover himself in glory. But those of us who’ve been following him for a long enough time won’t be impressed. Too bad, as he’s a talented guy, but his bias really gets in the way. In 7 years for e.g., I’ve never seen him underplay a snow storm. Not once. When he’s wrong, which is frequently, it’s always on the too severe side. Always. It’s really quite amazing.
In line with prior predictions based on PDO phase I judge that we are at about the 1962 analogue of the Last PDO cycle. 1958 to 1962 were all nada years (sound familiar?). 1963-64 was a moderate Nino (like -.9 SOI). 64-5 was a moderate Nina, and 65-6 was a strong Nino.
The tendency since WWII has been to transition from nadas to Ninos rather than Ninas.
Prediction: weak to moderate Nino, @-.75 SOI.
No money down.
Heat from the Deep. El Nino 2014 Hits Back at Climate Change Deniers.