Drought tracking by satellite

The satellite can penetrate the Earth’s surface up to 5 centimeters

In that case results depend on soil type. For example soil around Hajós, a fair wine district in Hungary, is loess covered by a foot of sand. I am sure the upper 2 inches can get bone dry pretty fast, while there’s still plenty of moisture below.

Gerry,
UCLA=University of California Los Angeles

So areas that sit on the edges of three or four regional weather patterns and soil types find that the regional weather patterns wobble back and forth. 30 years ago, North Texas was plains desert along with all the wildlife that comes with it: lizards, turtles, tarantulas, scorpions, bats etc. The weather pattern moved slightly and everyone planted green grass yards. The turtles, lizards spiders disappeared. Now it has wobbled back to desert and everyone whines about their yards and not being able to pull in record hay crops.
Cali is diff. The weather pattern wobbles every few years and concrete does not absorb very much. No water left in the soil because the gov has taken it and wastes it on Pelosi’s golf course and her winery.
I write response and disaster plans. I would like to know what they would put in their emergency response plan to a drought that is not already in every state and local plan and how they think their model has any impact….because it doesn’t.

Droughts will be variable with a few light showers. Here are some short-lived droughts in the USA from the past.

Abstract – 2002
Larry Bensona et al
Holocene multidecadal and multicentennial droughts affecting Northern California and Nevada
……….Two high-resolution Holocene-climate records are now available from the Pyramid and Owens lake basins which suggest that the Holocene was characterized by five climatic intervals. TIC and δ18O records from Owens Lake indicate that the first interval in the early Holocene (11,600–10,000 cal yr BP) was characterized by a drying trend that was interrupted by a brief (200 yr) wet oscillation centered at 10,300 cal yr BP. This was followed by a second early-Holocene interval (10,000–8000 cal yr BP) during which relatively wet conditions prevailed. During the early part of the middle Holocene (8000–6500 cal yr BP), high-amplitude oscillations in TIC in Owens Lake and δ18O in Pyramid Lake indicate the presence of shallow lakes in both basins. During the latter part of the middle Holocene (6500–3800 cal yr BP), drought conditions dominated, Owens Lake desiccated, and Lake Tahoe ceased spilling to the Truckee River, causing Pyramid Lake to decline. At the beginning of the late Holocene (∼3000 cal yr BP), Lake Tahoe rose to its sill level and Pyramid Lake increased in volume.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(01)00048-8
———————————
Abstract – 1998
2000 Years of Drought Variability in the Central United States
…..Historical documents, tree rings, archaeological remains, lake sediment, and geomorphic data make it clear that the droughts of the twentieth century, including those of the 1930s and 1950s, were eclipsed several times by droughts earlier in the last 2000 years, and as recently as the late sixteenth century. In general, some droughts prior to 1600 appear to be characterized by longer duration (i.e., multidecadal) and greater spatial extent than those of the twentieth century…….
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079%3C2693:YODVIT%3E2.0.CO;2
———————————
Abstract – 2011
David W. Stahle et al
Tree-ring data document 16th century megadrought over North America
…….Droughts during the 1750s, 1820s, and 1850s–1860s estimated from tree rings were similar to the 1950s drought in terms of magnitude, persistence, and spatial coverage, but these earlier episodes do not appear to have surpassed the severity or extent of the Dust Bowl drought. However, longer tree-ring reconstructions of PDSI for the United States and precipitation for northwestern Mexico and western Canada indicate that the “megadrought” of the 16th century far exceeded any drought of the 20th century (Figure 1) [also see Wood-house and Overpeck, 1998], and is considered to be the most severe prolonged drought over much of North America for at least the last 500 years [Meko et al., 1995].
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/00EO00076/abstract
———————————
Abstract – 2001
Steven L. Forman et. al.
Temporal and spatial patterns of Holocene dune activity on the Great Plains of North America: megadroughts and climate links
……High Plains showed peak activity sometime between ca. 7 and 5 cal. ka. Loess deposition between ca. 10 and 4 cal. ka also signifies widespread aridity…….. Periods of persistent drought are associated with a La Niña-dominated climate state, with cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and later of the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico that significantly weakens cyclogenesis over central North America. As drought proceeds, reduced soil moisture and vegetation cover would lessen evaporative cooling and increase surface temperatures. These surface changes strengthen the eastward expansion of a high-pressure ridge aloft and shift the jet stream northward, further enhancing continent-wide drought……..
dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8181(00)00092-8

We are still doomed as there were mega-droughts in the US during the Medieval Warm Period too. We must take action now! / sac

Letter To Nature – 2012
Justin Sheffield
Little change in global drought over the past 60 years
…..Here we show that the previously reported increase in global drought is overestimated because the PDSI uses a simplified model of potential evaporation7 that responds only to changes in temperature and thus responds incorrectly to global warming in recent decades. More realistic calculations, based on the underlying physical principles8 that take into account changes in available energy, humidity and wind speed, suggest that there has been little change in drought over the past 60 years……
doi: 10.1038/nature11575

“The pattern might be used to predict the drought in another location, so that those areas could take precautions to avoid the impact of an oncoming drought,” says Wu.
Unfortunately, this same prediction will also be used by governments to take in more taxes and fees and more loss of freedoms.. Imagine, as soon as a prediction is made for a drought somewhere, up go the water rates and restrictions even before it starts. On top of that, without even knowing for sure if there will be a drought of any significance, or how long it will last. In theory sounds like a great idea, but in the hands of the government…. guaranteed to be a bad idea.

MaxLD says:
April 9, 2014 at 2:34 pm
…………………There are some very good ones out there who are truly interested in advancing science. Someone has to pay for the research. I will give these folks the benefit of the doubt unless/until I see a decidedly political self-agenda as being the main purpose of their research.

Here is what happens when you give them the benefit of the doubt. You waste billions of dollars for nothing.
We were told to prepare for permanent drought in Australia by Flannery & Co.. Billions were spend on desalination plants. Australia subsequently received Biblical floods of ‘unprecedented’ proportions with inland seas and dams full to overflowing. Desalination plants were mothballed, billions wasted. Australian children weren’t supposed to know what floods are.
http://theconversation.edu.au/climate-and-floods-flannery-is-no-expert-but-neither-are-the-experts-5709
http://www.csiro.au/Organisation-Structure/Divisions/Marine–Atmospheric-Research/AustralianRainfallFuture.aspx
http://www.theage.com.au/national/its-not-drought-its-climate-change-say-scientists-20090829-f3cd.html#ixzz1exV8ooUb
MaxLD, you earlier said

It is disheartening to see the great number of people who trash any kind of research. Should we just do nothing?

I hope I have convinced you that we should “do nothing” when they tell us what to do and just do what we have always done – adapted to changes in climate when we are convinced of permanent change. Sceptics were never convinced by the Australia permanent drought claims and we were right. Short-term alarmism leads to big time expenditure and a waste of resources. Is this a good thing?
Remember snowfalls are now just a thing of the past? The UK ran down its grit salt stocks until near calamity struck late with huge snow, ice and frost. Need I go on???

These comments are strangely negative, perhaps due in part to weak reporting. But Prf. Wu is talking about developing a database to understand, track, and potentially ADAPT to drought conditions. There does not appear to be any WAG modeling going on. He and his team are collecting real world data, though obviously the data will never be perfect. But it’s a good start. Helping communities understand, predict and adapt to drought would go a long way to finding economical solutions to an ever-changing climate and help our society maintain high intensity land use. Seems like good, practical science to me. Isn’t this the kind of research we should be cheering?
All science should contain a healthy dose of skepticism, especially climate science. But should we also be careful not to allow generalized negativity to swing the pendulum too far? I think that makes the regulars on this important blog forum look a little too much anti-science, and that undercuts the important accountability people here are providing and that is so desperately needed within the climate science community. Allowing ourselves to be branded naysayers against all science just provides an easy ad hominem attack to the zealots professing doom. And it is a turn-off to all those luke-warmers out there looking for a deeper understanding of the climate wars. Let’s keep some perspective and avoid putting on the same blinders that led so many climate scientists astray. There is SOME good climate science out there, isn’t there?
I congratulate Prf. Wu and his team at the University of Cincinnati on this practical research. I’m sure more than a few farmers would agree. And maybe, just maybe, this kind of research could provide political leaders in California a counterbalance to the atrocious water management policies developed and implemented by eco-socialists and other ill-informed (if well-meaning) environmentalists that have led inexorably (and predictably) to the desperate water shortages there now.

MaxLD says:
April 10, 2014 at 12:08 pm
Thank you, MaxLD. I don’t often comment, but this comment thread seemed particularly negative and off the mark.

Greg says:
April 10, 2014 at 1:09 pm
Good points, Greg. Forgive my ignorance on California’s water history, I’m no expert. I was referring primarily to the Delta Smelt issue and the failure to enhance storage capacity due in part to environmental activists blocking dam building proposals. I’m sure, as you point out, the problem is far more complex. Surely, outdated irrigation systems used by many farmers exacerbate the problem as well as weak municipal water use monitoring. I have read that federal farming subsidies may have inadvertently encouraged farmers to grow water intensive crops and neglect investment in updating irrigation systems? It rings true, as often the hand of government is ham shaped.
Maybe off point a bit. Back to Prf. Wu and the negativity here, Maybe Mr. Watts might elect to highlight again on this blog the importance of avoiding knee-jerk reactions to all things climate science, even where the connection is tenuous? Such ideological dismissals are off-putting and hand back the high ground so hard won.

As far as drought goes. This is a complete waste of money.
1.The amount of water in reservoirs is already closely monitored
2. The amount and timing of rainfall as well as temperature is already recorded
3. Two inches (5 cm) in depth means diddlesquat to plants in terms of moisture.
4. Even the IPCC said you can not predict climate because it is chaotic.
The best you can do is the PDO + AMO drought correlation
There are patterns to the weather and those patterns change. Better to spend the money on studying and identifying those patterns but that will not be done because it says there are natural climate patterns that STILL affect our weather and that would negate CAGW.
As others have said this is just giving the government another stick to beat the public with. We have the 2012 hose pipe ban during a very wet spring in the UK as an example of the idiocy this can produce.