LA Times Tony Barboza gets caught fear mongering the IPCC report, becomes first victim of facts that don't agree with claims

This sentence…

“One of the panel’s most striking new conclusions is that rising temperatures are already depressing crop yields, including those of corn and wheat. In the coming decades, farmers may not be able to grow enough food to meet the demands of the world’s growing population, it warns.”

…is in this LA Times story by babout the latest IPCC report which has so much gloom and doom in it, one of the lead authors, Dr. Richard Tol, asked his name to be taken off of it for that very reason.

Problem is, the agricultural data doesn’t match the LATimes/IPCC claim, see for yourself:

 

wheat-corn-soybeans-yield-trend

Source: USDA data at http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/ plotted by Dr. Roy Spencer.

World-wheat-corn-rice_trends

Not only is the LATimes/IPCC claim about agriculture false for the world, but also the USA:

US_ag-trends

Source: USDA Data here compiled by Dr. Mark J. Perry at the Carpe Diem blog.

In fact, U.S. Corn Yields Have Increased Six Times Since the 1930s and Are Estimated to Double By 2030 according to Perry.

Note that temperatures in the US Corn belt aren’t rising, but models are, and as we know, the IPCC prefers model output over reality.USHCN_corn_belt_temperatures

Source: USHCN data from NOAA, CMIP5 model data plotted by Dr. Roy Spencer

Why is it that checking such simple facts are left to bloggers and independent thinkers like Roy Spencer, instead of “professional” journalists like ?

Maybe he’s just too lazy to check facts like this? Or, is it belief mixed with incompetence?

 

 

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bushbunny
April 1, 2014 6:06 pm

Their loss not ours. They have to take notice of the advertisers and stock holders wishes. You could write a letter to another local paper and point it out their obvious lack of free speech?

thingadonta
April 1, 2014 7:04 pm

Have a look at this:
“Indeed, the panel calculates that food demand is rising at a pace of 14 per cent per decade. But it estimates that climate change is already reducing wheat yields by 2 per cent each decade – compared with where they would be in the absence of climate change — and corn yields by 1 per cent.”
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/carbon-economy/is-the-world-going-to-run-out-of-food-20140402-35xf5.html#ixzz2xgqjf1cY
‘Compared with what they would be’… is not the same as what actually is. These people live in another reality. In other words, models supplant reality,
‘what is would be without . ‘
Surely the worlds scientists are going to start waking up to this nonsense from the IPCC and do something about it.

lee
April 1, 2014 7:42 pm

‘the panel calculates that food demand is rising at a pace of 14 per cent per decade’
I wonder if that has anything to do with a rising middle class in Asia?

April 1, 2014 8:38 pm

The shrilly absurd alarmism and doom mongering of AR5 is a good thing. The average Joe Sixpack is going to start to smell a rat. He is not as ignorant as these progressive types think he is.

rogerknights
April 1, 2014 9:55 pm

george e. conant says:
April 1, 2014 at 3:29 pm
Slightly off topic I encountered a climate scientist out having drinks at a local establishment I frequent. We got to talking and wow she shut me down when I said the models failed to predict the last 17 yrs of flat lined global temps. First she said the models are spot on then she said there was no pause and then she said she will not speak to me about it, end of discussion. Just thought yall would appreciate that.

“Who’s in denial now?”

Jack Simmons
April 1, 2014 10:20 pm

Real cause of pull back in corn production in US:
U.S. Corn Farmers Cut Back Plantings as Global Competition Grows – WSJ.com
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304157204579473601544650432?KEYWORDS=corn&mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702304157204579473601544650432.html%3FKEYWORDS%3Dcorn

After years of planting one massive crop after another, U.S. corn farmers are planning to pull back for the first time since the recession, signaling a new era of uncertainty for the nation’s largest crop.
Midwest farmers ramped up production in recent years as biofuels boomed at home and demand around the globe soaked up nearly every last kernel. But the rest of the world boosted output too.
The result is increasingly…

Did you notice the rest of the world boosted output too?

April 2, 2014 8:58 am

I was disappointed to discover today that the host of this page is a paid, ($44k Heartland Institute) retired weatherman, not a climate scientist. I thought this was an authentic scientifically based discussion forum, but obviously the commitment here is anti-science:
Clipped from eco-watch page:
Except that’s not what the study concludes at all. Rather, Doran and Zimmerman found a 96-97 percent consensus among specialized scientists that took part in the survey who agree that the earth’s temperature is rising and humans are the cause. The end of the paper specifically points out the greater understanding of climate change by scientists who took part in the survey and those without scientific expertise:
“It seems that the debate on the authenticity of global warming and the role played by human activity is largely nonexistent among those who understand the nuances and scientific basis of long-term climate processes.”
graph
Heartland’s other citations aren’t any better. One is Heartland president Joseph Bast‘s “reasonable interpretation” of conclusions he’ll never accept, and the rest comes from a retired TV weatherman named Anthony Watts (who’s not a climate scientist), who runs the climate denier blog WattsUpWithThat. Watts was on Heartland’s payroll last year for a $44,000 project to undermine climate change evidence gathered from weather stations, funded by Heartland’s billionaire “anonymous donor,” Barre Seid
I feel strongly that we, humans currently alive, should and could be preparing our society for a sustainable and thriving life affirming economic and societal structure, but are unable to proceed when greed and personal interests confuse the community conversation which is necessary to allow positive societal outcomes. Call me naive, but I thought there was an authentic scientific analysis discussion going on here. So sad, really.

Marlo Lewis
April 2, 2014 9:13 am

A new study in PNAS may also help rebut alarm about climate change and corn. The abstract is available here: http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/03/24/1320008111.abstract?sid=6ce3996f-779e-48aa-8acb-175d7b3f8a6e.
The study is about satellite monitoring of sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) to measure the gross primary production (GPP) of food crops. It shows that the U.S. corn belt in the summer is the most productive region on Earth: “Our SIF-based crop GPP estimates are 50–75% higher than results from state-of-the-art carbon cycle models over, for example, the US Corn Belt and the Indo-Gangetic Plain, implying that current models severely underestimate the role of management.”
The authors say their study is significant because, “Our results show that chlorophyll fluorescence data can be used as a unique benchmark to improve our global models, thus providing more reliable projections of agricultural productivity and climate impact on crop yields.”
I suspect the study is also significant because it shows that, despite alarms about climate change depressing corn yields, the U.S. corn belt is the most bio-productive region on Earth!
PNAS does not seem to have an option to purchase individual articles online. If anyone has a subscription, I would be most grateful to receive a PDF of the full study. My email is marlo.lewis@cei.org.

RACookPE1978
Editor
April 2, 2014 9:30 am

Sister Michelle says:
April 2, 2014 at 8:58 am
I was disappointed to discover today that the host of this page is a paid, ($44k Heartland Institute) retired weatherman, not a climate scientist. I thought this was an authentic scientifically based discussion forum, but obviously the commitment here is anti-science …
I feel strongly that we, humans currently alive, should and could be preparing our society for a sustainable and thriving life affirming economic and societal structure, but are unable to proceed when greed and personal interests confuse the community conversation which is necessary to allow positive societal outcomes. Call me naive, but I thought there was an authentic scientific analysis discussion going on here. So sad, really.

Gee.
So, as you so evidently believe that one can “buy” a scientific opinion or a scientific facts with 44,000.00 in money – that WAS ACTUALLY used to provide specific SCIENTIFIC links FROM government sources FOR the public, not propaganda or political advertisements! – … How much “scientific “data and papers will 200 billion buy? When the government is paying “scientific” so-called researchers and in government-funded universities using government-funded computer labs and government grants to government-funded “scientific” agencies to create results favoring further government taxes and government controls … How much “research” can they buy with their grants, salaries, and NSA-funded overseas meetings?
Gee.
When the actual government-measured global temperatures have NOT gone up for 17 years while CO2 has risen steadily the whole time, why do I see scientific results that your religion rejects because those results do not fit your religious zealotry and prejudices?
You mimic “care” and “concern” in your words, but YOU are requiring the world adopt energy policies of scarcity and high prices and restriction that WILL KILL (that ARE KILLING!) people now. So, 25,000 innocent elderly and poor DIED last year in the UK due to YOUR requirements of high energy so YOU would “feel” good about YOUR religion of CAGW. Feel better for their deaths?
Worldwide, ALL plants are growing 12 to 23% FASTER, higher, taller, more fruitful and more plentiful.
Does it irritate you – or please you – that more people are better fed and ARE living BECAUSE of CO2 increases and better transportation and better water and cleaner air and safer/cleaner sewage disposal and better buildings and safer cities?
When YOU are demanding policies and energy restriction that WILL kill hundreds of millions of people every year for the next 86 years FOR NO RESULT AT ALL on global temperatures, why do I see YOUR demand for the immediate death of billions of innocents but the IMMEDIATE payment of trillions to government “scientists” and government politicians, shall we say, somewhat cynically?
In the past one hundred 120 years,
CO2 was steady, and global temperatures rose.
CO2 was steady, and global temperatures were steady.
CO2 was steady, and global temperatures fell.
CO2 rose, and global temperatures were steady.
CO2 rose, and global temperatures fell.
CO2 rose, and global temperatures were steady.
CO2 rose, and global temperatures rose.
CO2 rose, and global temperatures were steady.
Now, just what is that religious faith you claim that I and the world MUST follow to prevent global temperature rise? Why should I believe the results of any person whose “research” is bought and paid by the government specifically to produce results that will ONLY benefit that same government that paid for her research?
There is NO HARM from increased CO2 levels. Why do YOU demand a right to kill people based on YOUR religion?

rogerknights
April 2, 2014 11:55 pm

Sister Michelle says:
April 2, 2014 at 8:58 am
I was disappointed to discover today that the host of this page is a paid, ($44k Heartland Institute) . . .

This claim was refuted in another thread yesterday. See these comments:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/04/01/claim-nsidc-nasa-say-arctic-melt-season-lengthening-ocean-rapidly-warming/#comment-1603367
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/04/01/claim-nsidc-nasa-say-arctic-melt-season-lengthening-ocean-rapidly-warming/#comment-1603386
Similar refutations have been regularly posted on WUWT for years in response to comments like yours. Nevertheless, the sources of those false claims—on which you rely—continue to make them.

. . . retired weatherman, not a climate scientist. I thought this was an authentic scientifically based discussion forum, but obviously the commitment here is anti-science:

Watts wasn’t only a weatherman. He was and is also a computer whiz who has made and sold widely accepted advanced electronics products to broadcasters around the country. His IQ, by inference from that, and from the coherence of his comments, is high. It’s not impossible—as you imply—for a smart, technically oriented retiree to get up to speed on climatology if he focuses on it—as he has. From his head posts, it is apparent that he is not out of his league when it comes to reading and interpreting scientific papers.
Going beyond that, he has already authored one peer-reviewed paper, and he has another one in the works. He’s not an ignoramus opining from a cracker barrel throne.
The “not a climatologist” argument is double edged. How many climatologists are qualified meteorologists? Some don’t seem to know much about the basics. They mightn’t be able to pass the meteorology exams that Watts has.
Some of these climatologists had their noses so high in the air that they couldn’t smell the coffee. They were so above it all that they were unaware of or unworried about the decrepit state of the US weather-monitoring network. It was Watt’s hands-on, lower-level focus that brought attention and reform to the situation, via his surface stations project. (I’m reminded of how a mere clockmaker, Harrison, solved the longitude prolem for Brtitish shipping, although the experts derided him as unqualified for not being an astronomer.)
I presume the source where you made your “discovery” (without reading any of his material or seeking another source of information) didn’t see fit to tell you the rest of the story. That impugns their overall trustworthiness.

Clipped from eco-watch page:
Except that’s not what the study concludes at all. Rather, Doran and Zimmerman found a 96-97 percent consensus among specialized scientists that took part in the survey who agree that the earth’s temperature is rising and humans are the cause.

Not exactly. Not THE cause. It asked (IIRC) only if mankind had “contributed” to the rise in temperatures since the 1700s. It made no mention of greenhouse gasses, so the contribution could have been from land-use changes.

The end of the paper specifically points out the greater understanding of climate change by scientists who took part in the survey and those without scientific expertise:
“It seems that the debate on the authenticity of global warming and the role played by human activity is largely nonexistent among those who understand the nuances and scientific basis of long-term climate processes.”

That statement implies that the 97% were all or mostly physicists and chemists who had published on the “attribution” (climate science) aspect of climate change, not environmentalists and economists who had published on the “impact” and “responses” aspects of climate change.
I hadn’t realized this was the case. I thought that the only criteria used in the study were that they were the most frequently published authors in the field (over 50 papers, I think) and that they described themselves as specializing in a study of the climate. That would seem to allow in many outspoken and activist-type biologists, environmentalists and economists.
Regarding two “97%” surveys that warmists more often cite, here is a summary of most of their flaws, by WUWT-commenter Robin Guenier:

“The flaws in the Doran paper are well known: (A) it used a hopelessly inadequate sample size (79 respondents) and demographic (nearly all from N America) and (B) in any case, most sceptics would agree with both its propositions: (1) that the world has warmed since the 1700s and (2) that mankind contributed. It made no mention of GHG emissions.
“Anderegg is more sophisticated than the hopeless Doran. But there’s a basic problem: it’s concerned with whether or not respondents agree that “anthropogenic greenhouse gases have been responsible for “most [i.e. more than 50%] of the “unequivocal” warming of the Earth’s average global temperature over the second half of the 20th century”. The only scientists qualified to evaluate that are those engaged in detection and attribution (both difficult and uncertain). Yet the research was not confined to such scientists.
“And, in any case, the research itself is flawed. First, the total number of “climate researchers” who accepted the above statement was, according to the paper, 903 and the total that did not was 472. In other words, 66% – not the much-claimed 97%. The researchers got their 97% by restricting their findings to researchers “most actively publishing in the field” – in other words, the paper’s findings do not cover all “climate scientists”. Further, it wasn’t an opinion survey at all, but an analysis of scientists who signed pro/anti statements – not the most useful documents. And, again, it was essentially confined to North America and was not concerned with whether or not the warming was dangerous. For these reasons, it’s valueless as a measure of climate scientists’ opinion about the dangers of AGW.”

This George Mason poll http://stats.org/stories/2008/global_warming_survey_apr23_08.html surveyed 489 randomly selected members of either the American Meteorological Society or the American Geophysical Union. It did not cherry pick the respondants who gave them the answer they wanted, and it asked more sophisticated questions, below:
Under its “Major Findings” are these paragraphs:
“Ninety-seven percent of the climate scientists surveyed believe “global average temperatures have increased” during the past century.
“Eighty-four percent say they personally believe human-induced warming is occurring, and 74% agree that “currently available scientific evidence” substantiates its occurrence. Only 5% believe that that human activity does not contribute to greenhouse warming; the rest [11%] are unsure.
“Scientists still debate the dangers. A slight majority (54%) believe the warming measured over the last 100 years is NOT “within the range of natural temperature fluctuation.”
“A slight majority (56%) see at least a 50-50 chance that global temperatures will rise two degrees Celsius or more during the next 50 to 100 years. (The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change cites this increase as the point beyond which additional warming would produce major environmental disruptions.)
“Based on current trends, 41% of scientists believe global climate change will pose a very great danger to the earth in the next 50 to 100 years, compared to 13% who see relatively little danger. Another 44% rate climate change as moderately dangerous.”
IOW, 59% doubt the “catastrophic” potential of AGW. I suspect that number would be higher now, after six more flat years.

Mervyn
April 3, 2014 5:29 am

Lets stop trying to be polite. This IPCC report is just a load of bullshit!

catweazle666
April 3, 2014 7:56 am

Maybe he’s just too lazy to check facts like this? Or, is it belief mixed with incompetence?
The good old Nuremburg defence, “only doing his job” would my guess.

April 15, 2014 9:28 pm

Hi Kevin – I agree with your last point. However, it is just a fact that the grading you refer to is very often regarded as and communicated as a lesson observation grade

bushbunny
April 15, 2014 10:25 pm

Sister Michelle? Who do you think is fantasying, sorry financing the global warming and evil CO2 factions, welll? If we didn’t have WUWT and similar thinking blogs, most people wouldn’t have the opportunity to hear the truth of this so called climate change scam. Sorry fellow skeptics this computer is driving me mad, it is so slow!