UAH Global Temperature Update for February 2014: +0.17 deg. C
(Note, my original headline number was unintentionally misleading, using a percentage to illustrate the drop rather that the absolute number. While the calculation was correct, it gave an impression of overall magnitude across the entire scale rather than the month to month change. It has been corrected. – Anthony)
by Dr, Roy Spencer
The Version 5.6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for February, 2014 is +0.17 deg. C, down 0.12 deg C from January (click for full size version):
The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 14 months are:
YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS
2013 1 +0.497 +0.517 +0.478 +0.386
2013 2 +0.203 +0.372 +0.033 +0.195
2013 3 +0.200 +0.333 +0.067 +0.243
2013 4 +0.114 +0.128 +0.101 +0.165
2013 5 +0.082 +0.180 -0.015 +0.112
2013 6 +0.295 +0.335 +0.255 +0.220
2013 7 +0.173 +0.134 +0.211 +0.074
2013 8 +0.158 +0.111 +0.206 +0.009
2013 9 +0.365 +0.339 +0.390 +0.190
2013 10 +0.290 +0.331 +0.249 +0.031
2013 11 +0.193 +0.160 +0.226 +0.020
2013 12 +0.266 +0.272 +0.260 +0.057
2014 1 +0.291 +0.387 +0.194 -0.028
2014 2 +0.172 +0.325 +0.019 -0.102
Note that most of the cooling was in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, less in the Northern Hemisphere.
The global image for February should be available in the next day or so here.
Popular monthly data files (these might take a few days to update):
uahncdc_lt_5.6.txt (Lower Troposphere)
uahncdc_mt_5.6.txt (Mid-Troposphere)
uahncdc_ls_5.6.txt (Lower Stratosphere)
===========================================================
Global Temperature Report: February 2014
March 5, 2014 Vol. 23, No. 11
Global climate trend since Nov. 16, 1978: +0.14 C per decade
February temperatures (preliminary)
Global composite temp.: +0.17 C (about 0.31 degrees Fahrenheit) above
30-year average for February.
Northern Hemisphere: +0.33 C (about 0.59 degrees Fahrenheit) above
30-year average for February.
Southern Hemisphere: +0.02 C (about 0.04 degrees Fahrenheit) above
30-year average for February.
Tropics: -0.10 C (about 0.18 degrees Fahrenheit) below 30-year average
for February.
January temperatures (revised):
Global Composite: +0.29 C above 30-year average
Northern Hemisphere: +0.39 C above 30-year average
Southern Hemisphere: +0.19 C above 30-year average
Tropics: -0.03 C below 30-year average
(All temperature anomalies are based on a 30-year average (1981-2010)
for the month reported.)
Notes on data released March 5, 2014:
Warm temperature anomalies in the Arctic during February indicate a
displacement of cold air from that region to other areas, such as from
North America through the North Atlantic into eastern Russia,
according to Dr. John Christy, a professor of atmospheric science and
director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of
Alabama in Huntsville.
Compared to seasonal norms, the coldest place in Earth’s atmosphere in
February was over the southwestern corner of Canada’s Saskatchewan
province near the town of Eston, where temperatures were as much as
4.68 C (about 8.42 degrees Fahrenheit) cooler than seasonal norms.
With Arctic air holding sway over much of North America, temperatures
in the Arctic were generally warmer than normal in February. Compared
to seasonal norms, the warmest departure from average in February was
over the Arctic Ocean northeast of Svalbard, a group of islands about
halfway between Norway and the North Pole. Temperatures there were as
much as 6.16 C (11.1 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than seasonal norms.
Archived color maps of local temperature anomalies are available on-line at:
As part of an ongoing joint project between UAHuntsville, NOAA and
NASA, Christy and Dr. Roy Spencer, an ESSC principal scientist, use
data gathered by advanced microwave sounding units on NOAA and NASA
satellites to get accurate temperature readings for almost all regions
of the Earth. This includes remote desert, ocean and rain forest areas
where reliable climate data are not otherwise available.
The satellite-based instruments measure the temperature of the
atmosphere from the surface up to an altitude of about eight
kilometers above sea level. Once the monthly temperature data is
collected and processed, it is placed in a “public” computer file for
immediate access by atmospheric scientists in the U.S. and abroad.
Neither Christy nor Spencer receives any research support or funding
from oil, coal or industrial companies or organizations, or from any
private or special interest groups. All of their climate research
funding comes from federal and state grants or contracts.
— 30 —
So what we appear to have across a little more than one unit of climate (35 yrs) is a variation of a little over 1.3C between individual data points and a variation of around 0.75C on a 13 month rolling average.
The system appears to be self-correcting, despite occasional strong forcing events.
No evidence at all of runaway climate change.
It would be interesting to see if the data still held the same features in 2100, however I will not be around to witness that.
Day By Day says:
March 5, 2014 at 9:15 pm
Marcos says:
seems strange that Houston had it’s 2nd coldest Feb on record yet the map shows a positive anomaly…
It was cold in the NH breaking all kinds of records again. Yes the arctic was “warmer” and parts of Europe–and California–but come on, with the record bone breaking cold we still get a positive anomaly? Is there something wrong with the satellites? Are we missing something in this picture–a crucial bit of insight that has escaped us all? I say yes…because I say we’re colder–OK I’m not a satellite and I’m Not Christy and Spencer–so I don’t’ know what I’m talking about, But Marco is making a good point–place by place, the temps are not being recorded properly…or something,, Boy its maddening.
——————————————————————————————————————
It really is as simple as the US being such a small part (about 2%) of the earth’s surface. So all the cold there can be offset in a global average by fairly mild warmth elsewhere. Say the whole of the US is averaging 10 deg C below “normal” right now, that only needs 0.2 deg C positive anomaly over the rest of the world to cancel out.
Which is one of the reasons that a “global average temperature” is just as meaningless for people in their day-to-day lives as a “global average income” or “global average” anything else would be – the part of the globe we each inhabit (and so, is of immediate importance to us) is miniscule!
Anthony Watts says (March 5, 2014 at 2:49 pm): “For those folks flummoxed by the “down 40%” in the headline, it was just an effect of having too many things to do and dashing off a headline.”
Cheer up: it could have been much worse. You might have put it in terms of Hiroshima bombs not detonated in the atmosphere. 🙂
Chip Javert says:@ur momisugly March 5, 2014 at 6:47 pm
….Yes, science needs to communicate observable facts to the general population, but science and the academy need to clean up their own house. Good luck with waking up your giant, but be careful: that giant might look at the current academic & science community and decide it strongly resembles the Augean Stables.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Thanks for the metaphor.
I (a chemist) am one of those who is suggesting that the government DEFUND Academia and science. So you are a bit late.
Prof. Arthur Roberts (of the physics dept. the University of Iowa)) wrote
“Take Away Your Billion Dollars” (published in Physics Today 1, (7) 1946)
http://www.haverford.edu/physics/songs/roberts/roberts1947.htm
His reasoning still stands. Government funding of science is really quite new.
So as I said time to DEFUND Science and Academia. {:>)
Rhys Jaggar says:
March 5, 2014 at 11:09 pm
So what we appear to have across a little more than one unit of climate (35 yrs) is a variation of a little over 1.3C between individual data points and a variation of around 0.75C on a 13 month rolling average.
The system appears to be self-correcting, despite occasional strong forcing events…..
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Yes the Holocene has been a quiet and stable interglacial for the most part excepting the rocky start.
This graph shows how stable the climate has been despite a 9% reduction in solar energy in the NH since the Holocene Optimum ~11 ka ago.
That should be enough to drive a stake through the heart of the CAGW beast but alas it is a zombie that no amount of science or logic will kill. Maybe a full blow glaciation and a mile of ice sitting on Hansen’s home would kill the beast but I doubt it.
Take a normal sheet of graph paper. Make the X axis time in years from 1979 to 2014. Make the Y axis temperature from –80C to +60C both surface temperatures achievable on Earth. Now using a normal HB pencil draw a line at 15 degrees Centigrade level from 1979 to 2014. ALL the anomalies are inside that line. Is this variation something to get hysterical about?
I predict the next few temperature anomalies are going to plunge as the Earth has to digest (melt) all that snow and ice it made in the northern hemisphere during the epic winter before the atmosphere can warm much. Melting ice takes a lot of heat and takes place at 32F, and 32F will be a magnet for temperatures until the ice is gone. Here in the Milwaukee area the average high is 40F this time of year, but we’re in an icebox at this moment and the 40s don’t look too likely for a while.
It’s like if you swallowed a big chunk of ice, your metabolism would still be cranking away at 100watts but instead of rejecting that heat outward where it would warm the surroundings, circulation to the skin is dropped and that 100 watts is directed inward towards melting the ice. The local surroundings don’t get much of that 100 watts until the ice is gone.
I live just outside Huntsville……..I’m always proud to see the data they produce. (Not a bad hockey team either).
This graph does not seem like it should be on Wuwt? http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/tlt_update_feb2014-1.png
Scott says: @ur momisugly March 6, 2014 at 4:09 am
I predict the next few temperature anomalies are going to plunge as the Earth has to digest (melt) all that snow and ice…
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Well it certainly is not warm here in mid North Carolina!
Normal for today is min 37 °F and Max 60 °F. Yesterday (after the usual 2 °F increase in temp. ) min 28 °F and Max 46 °F — BRRRRrrrr.
In March of 2004, ten years ago for the first week of March the MIN | MAX. were:
69°F. | 28°F.
71°F. | 53°F.
77°F. | 53°F.
82°F. | 48°F.
78°F. | 59 °F.
73°F. | 62°F.
71°F. | 42°F.
In April of 2004 we had 2 days at 91F and 4 days at 93F to give an idea of the contrast to this spring.
It is now 29°F @ur momisugly 8:00 AM As I said BRRRRrrr
Michael Whittemore says:March 6, 2014 at 4:46 am
It’s the same data as the first graph, presented in bars instead of points connected with a line.
Steve Keohane says:March 6, 2014 at 5:33 am
What I meant was that it so clearly shows a 30 year climate change of warming. There has not even been any El Nino’s during this supposed hiatus either, yet look at the unajusted satellite data.
No, that graph does not show 30 years of warming. It shows the same halt in warming that the other graphs of GST datasets show.
Nonsense. There have been five El Ninos during the most recent period of static global surface temperatures: 1998, 2003, 2005, 2007, and 2010. What on earth are you jabbering about?
Joe says:
“..the part of the globe we each inhabit (and so, is of immediate importance to us) is miniscule!”
Thanks, that is helpful and I know you are correct. Maybe especially this winter–but in the past few it has been China, Asia, India, Russia, and Europe that had the bone breaking cold week after week and the anomaly still come out positive for the NH. And that is no so minuscule!
If you go here:
http://www.tranecds.com/COMMERCIAL/DNA/View.aspx?i=1250
you can download an electronic psychrometric chart that lets you play with wet bulb, dry bulb, enthalpy, grains of moisture, and all the other stuff that’s about the energy content of air. And yes, you are correct, it can make a HUGE difference.
JJ says:
March 6, 2014 at 6:58 am
My bad there has been one El Nino. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/enso-global-temp-anom/201213.png
Michael Whittemore thinks there has been ONE el nino since 1998. What is this guy smoking? Climate alarmism is the discipline where you’re able to invent whatever fact you like.
Michael Whittemore says:
March 6, 2014 at 2:48 pm
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/enso-global-temp-anom/201213.png
The link you have posted is incorrect and fails their own criteria.
At least 5 successive months that are at least 0.5c above normal are classified El Nino events.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
There have been 5 El Nino events since 1997/98 inclusive.
1997/98
2002/03
2004/05
2006/07
2009/10
I see what the link has done recently, only including El Nino events with at least 5 successive months above 1.0 c. That is wrong, the definition is above 0.5c and they have missed out the weak El Nino events deliberately.
JJ says:
March 6, 2014 at 6:58 am
Michael Whittemore says:
————————————————
JJ, you said El Ninos, while Whittemore is saying El Nino’s. See the difference? It was so obvious the proverbial caveman would have picked up on it.
Your worse, there have been five El Ninos during the most recent period of static global surface temperatures. Once again: 1998, 2003, 2005, 2007, and 2010.
The link he has posted is fine, it just doesn’t have anything whatsoever to do with El Nino. The values presented don’t fail the El Nino criteria, they are inapplicable to the El Nino criteria.
Kenny says: “I live just outside Huntsville……..I’m always proud to see the data they produce. (Not a bad hockey team either).”
Just outside Huntsville? Or just inside?
So am I meant to believe you guys? with no links to science? or NOAA? http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2012/13 ??
It appears I am wrong, there has been the El Nino’s you have all explained. The 2005 one seems to not get much of a mention from what I can find, but yes over 0.5 for 5 consecutive seasons. I also found this. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W705cOtOHJ4
US is experiencing record cold winter but greater cooling is happening in the tropics. Northern Hemisphere cooled by 0.05 C in Feb. vs. last year. Tropics cooled by 0.3 C in Feb. and 0.41 C in Jan. vs. last year.
Yes, it does appear that you are wrong.
And being wrong is one of those gifts that keeps on giving, isn’t it?
Seriously … in one post you demand links to NOAA science, and in the next you point to a youtube video by the idiot Cook?