UAH Global Temperature Anomaly Down by .12C in February

UAH Global Temperature Update for February 2014: +0.17 deg. C

(Note, my original headline number was unintentionally misleading, using a percentage to illustrate the drop rather that the absolute number. While the calculation was correct, it gave an impression of overall magnitude across the entire scale rather than the month to month change. It has been corrected. – Anthony)

by Dr, Roy Spencer

The Version 5.6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for February, 2014 is +0.17 deg. C, down 0.12 deg C from January (click for full size version):

UAH_LT_1979_thru_February_2014_v5

The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 14 months are:

YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS

2013 1 +0.497 +0.517 +0.478 +0.386

2013 2 +0.203 +0.372 +0.033 +0.195

2013 3 +0.200 +0.333 +0.067 +0.243

2013 4 +0.114 +0.128 +0.101 +0.165

2013 5 +0.082 +0.180 -0.015 +0.112

2013 6 +0.295 +0.335 +0.255 +0.220

2013 7 +0.173 +0.134 +0.211 +0.074

2013 8 +0.158 +0.111 +0.206 +0.009

2013 9 +0.365 +0.339 +0.390 +0.190

2013 10 +0.290 +0.331 +0.249 +0.031

2013 11 +0.193 +0.160 +0.226 +0.020

2013 12 +0.266 +0.272 +0.260 +0.057

2014 1 +0.291 +0.387 +0.194 -0.028

2014 2 +0.172 +0.325 +0.019 -0.102

Note that most of the cooling was in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, less in the Northern Hemisphere.

The global image for February should be available in the next day or so here.

Popular monthly data files (these might take a few days to update):

uahncdc_lt_5.6.txt (Lower Troposphere)

uahncdc_mt_5.6.txt (Mid-Troposphere)

uahncdc_ls_5.6.txt (Lower Stratosphere)

===========================================================

Global Temperature Report: February 2014

March 5, 2014  Vol. 23, No. 11

Global climate trend since Nov. 16, 1978: +0.14 C per decade

tlt_update_Feb2014 (1)

February temperatures (preliminary)

Global composite temp.: +0.17 C (about 0.31 degrees Fahrenheit) above

30-year average for February.

Northern Hemisphere: +0.33 C (about 0.59 degrees Fahrenheit) above

30-year average for February.

Southern Hemisphere: +0.02 C (about 0.04 degrees Fahrenheit) above

30-year average for February.

Tropics: -0.10 C (about 0.18 degrees Fahrenheit) below 30-year average

for February.

January temperatures (revised):

Global Composite: +0.29 C above 30-year average

Northern Hemisphere: +0.39 C above 30-year average

Southern Hemisphere: +0.19 C above 30-year average

Tropics: -0.03 C below 30-year average

(All temperature anomalies are based on a 30-year average (1981-2010)

for the month reported.)

FEBRUARY 2014 (1)

Notes on data released March 5, 2014:

Warm temperature anomalies in the Arctic during February indicate a

displacement of cold air from that region to other areas, such as from

North America through the North Atlantic into eastern Russia,

according to Dr. John Christy, a professor of atmospheric science and

director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of

Alabama in Huntsville.

Compared to seasonal norms, the coldest place in Earth’s atmosphere in

February was over the southwestern corner of Canada’s Saskatchewan

province near the town of Eston, where temperatures were as much as

4.68 C (about 8.42 degrees Fahrenheit) cooler than seasonal norms.

With Arctic air holding sway over much of North America, temperatures

in the Arctic were generally warmer than normal in February. Compared

to seasonal norms, the warmest departure from average in February was

over the Arctic Ocean northeast of Svalbard, a group of islands about

halfway between Norway and the North Pole. Temperatures there were as

much as 6.16 C (11.1 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than seasonal norms.

Archived color maps of local temperature anomalies are available on-line at:

http://nsstc.uah.edu/climate/

As part of an ongoing joint project between UAHuntsville, NOAA and

NASA, Christy and Dr. Roy Spencer, an ESSC principal scientist, use

data gathered by advanced microwave sounding units on NOAA and NASA

satellites to get accurate temperature readings for almost all regions

of the Earth. This includes remote desert, ocean and rain forest areas

where reliable climate data are not otherwise available.

The satellite-based instruments measure the temperature of the

atmosphere from the surface up to an altitude of about eight

kilometers above sea level. Once the monthly temperature data is

collected and processed, it is placed in a “public” computer file for

immediate access by atmospheric scientists in the U.S. and abroad.

Neither Christy nor Spencer receives any research support or funding

from oil, coal or industrial companies or organizations, or from any

private or special interest groups. All of their climate research

funding comes from federal and state grants or contracts.

— 30 —

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Steven Kopits

Oh, please. “UAH Global Temperature Down 40% in February”?
There’s a lot of variability in the data. A 0.17 deg C anomaly is nothing special, either up or down. It’s merely more of the same, the pause, the stall, the lack of umph. It makes is yet another month of non-warming, but it really isn’t news-flash worthy.
Could we please eschew such drama in further UAH headlines, especially when there is really nothing new or interesting to report?
[Yes, headline has been changed. See Anthony’s note at head of article. – mod]

Mario Lento

Wow the tropics are a cooling! Anything to do with a slight La Nina – to La Nada condition?

Russ R.

“Down 40%” is a meaningless measure for a monthly anomaly, as the 1981-2010 baseline is an arbitrary choice.
[Yes, headline has been changed. See Anthony’s note at head of article. – mod]

Mick

What is the average temperature for the Arctic? The areas that I have been watching are showing -35C to -38 for February.

David L. Hagen

Re: “Global climate trend since Nov. 16, 1978: +0.14 C per decade”
Compare IPCC models projecting ~ 3 C by 2100. “Only” a factor of 2 off 34 year reality.
A bit of uncertainty! – as noted by Judith Curry in Causes and implications of the pause

Mario Lento

Steven Kopits says:
March 5, 2014 at 12:36 pm
Oh, please. “UAH Global Temperature Down 40% in February”?
There’s a lot of variability in the data. A 0.17 deg C anomaly is nothing special, either up or down. It’s merely more of the same, the pause, the stall, the lack of umph. It makes is yet another month of non-warming, but it really isn’t news-flash worthy.
Could we please eschew such drama in further UAH headlines, especially when there is really nothing new or interesting to report?
+++++++++++++
While I understand your sentiment, I disagree that there is “nothing… interesting to report” Any news that counters the claims of the warmists tends to help keep them in check. An El Nino is about all they need to push back into the hysteria. Every month that rolls by where the anomalies are within a no trend to slight down trend bound is another thumb tack in their coffin.

JimS

The Arctic is warming … according to the models… disregard that the models are all blond.

From NASA:
The heat from warm river waters draining into the Arctic Ocean is contributing to the melting of Arctic sea ice each summer, a new NASA study finds. A research team led by Son Nghiem of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory used satellite data to measure the surface temperature of the waters discharging from a Canadian river into the icy Beaufort Sea during the summer of 2012. They observed a sudden influx of warm river waters into the sea that rapidly warmed the surface layers of the ocean, enhancing the melting of sea ice

NeedleFactory

The Headline says down “40%”, but the text nowhere mentions “40%.”
I fear I miss the point.

Two Labs

I, too, have a problem with the title. It uses an arbitrary baseline. Taken literally, “temperature down 40%” could mean we’re 40% closer to absolute zero.

Geologist Down The Pub Sez

Good news at last! On on practically the same day the Kansas City STAR illumines our lives with the news that the last time atmospheric carbon dioxide was as high as it is today was 800,000 years ago. They forgot to mention that 800,000 years ago the great continental glacier was depositing moraines around KC.

Tim

Think we all agree that the title should be changed, even if its a dig at the alarmists.
It is interesting however that the tropics are pretty cold despite some predicting the onset of El Nino conditions in late 2014. Also interesting that the reason the anomaly is positive is because of high arctic temps, I can’t help but wonder what the temps would look like if this data wasn’t included.

What would the headline be if the anomaly went negative?

Adam from Kansas

According to the NOAA SST anomaly data, it seems like we’ll be expecting some further cooling over the next few months as SST’s are dropping and what seems to be looking like the pacific warm pool getting cooler and the AMO dropping. With ENSO also being closer to La Nina than El Nino right now, I don’t think we’re going to be seeing a clear restoration of an upward trend if you draw the line from 1998.
Even though we had a couple of very hot Summers in 2011 and 2012, I don’t think there’s anything worrisome when it comes to burning up (those hot Summers I mentioned came right on cue when you look at how we seem to get a period of extreme summer heat every 20-30 years).

NeedleFactory says: March 5, 2014 at 12:46 pm
The Headline says down “40%”, but the text nowhere mentions “40%.”
I fear I miss the point.
Herpa-Derp! You’re right, he should have said 41.38%. Good catch! /Sarc

Willis Eschenbach

Good info as always, Dr. Roy.
Well, the lower troposphere is somewhere around 270K, so a change of 0.1K means it’s dropped by 0.04%, four hundredths of a percent. As I’ve often said, the amazing thing about the climate is its stability, not the variability …
w.

Adam from Kansas

We also are just coming out of one our coldest March days of all time (high around 10 and low around 0), with perhaps the only reason we didn’t go below 0 being due to UHI. Last year we saw waves of cold potent enough to give us a few snowflakes in May (which the waves continuing into early June). Hopefully this Spring will see some more pleasant temperatures, but all bets are off if those people predicting the return of the Little Ice Age turn out to be accurate.

Ok, the headline’s a little dubious, but about 14 of us have already dutifully pointed that out, so we can move on from an endless discussion about the headline. But this does seem to be pretty significant actually. I mean the temperature could have gone the other way, say, to +.51°C. Then the fear mongering monkeys would crow a bit. What do they have to crow about now?
And with this drop down to 0.17°C we are very close to a ZERO C anomaly. Now that’s significant, I think. If we drop below zero, it’s going to mean something.

Box of Rocks

Well duh. Of course the temp is going to drop.
Take away a huge high pressure area that over Alaska and part of Russia that Sarah Palin can see from her front porch and the warm air that it provides and of course the temps will drop.
I guess the large anomaly in Jan had to do more with dominate High pressure ridges than anything else….

MattN

“Down 40%”?
Come on, you’re better than that…

Robert W Turner

Interesting that it appears warm air is being pulled up the west side of the Urals and eastern Pacific into the Arctic.

Jeff

The thing that stands out is that cooling existed in the north, south and tropics. But if you look, the tropics has cooled off significantly over the past three months. Likewise, the southern hemisphere has cooled off significantly over that period as well.
So it would seem that the northern hemisphere is actually what is keeping the number from being negative altogether. Given how cold it has been in the US and Russia, i’m assuming that’s due to warmer temps in Western Europe, Alaska and the arctic.
But it should be noted that those areas, too, are cooling now. March will likely bring another fall. I’m thinking 2014 will be a la nina year and 2015 will be an el nino year.

henrythethird

Russ R. says:
March 5, 2014 at 12:38 pm
““Down 40%” is a meaningless measure for a monthly anomaly, as the 1981-2010 baseline is an arbitrary choice.”
So is the choice of 1951-1980 baseline for GISTEMP, considering that the WMO recommends using a period ending with the last full decade.
Better to ask why GISS can’t move their baseline to match everyone else.

Keith Willshaw

> Nick Stokes says:
> March 5, 2014 at 12:49 pm
> What would the headline be if the anomaly went negative?
Last time I checked down was considered negative however on this board I would expect that if the temperature anomaly went up the headline would say so. One of the reasons I follow this blog is the honesty of the major contributors.
Keith

tty

Hal says:
“From NASA:
The heat from warm river waters draining into the Arctic Ocean is contributing to the melting of Arctic sea ice each summer, a new NASA study finds. A research team led by Son Nghiem of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory used satellite data to measure the surface temperature of the waters discharging from a Canadian river into the icy Beaufort Sea during the summer of 2012. They observed a sudden influx of warm river waters into the sea that rapidly warmed the surface layers of the ocean, enhancing the melting of sea ice”

Now that is what I call cutting-edge science! When Nordenskiöld made the first voyage through the Northeast Passage 1878-79 he deliberately started late in the season when the warm water from the Siberian rivers had melted the ice along the coast. Check Nordenskiöld, A. E. 1880 “Vegas färd runt Europa och Asien” p. 17 . An English edition is here:
https://archive.org/stream/voyagevegaround00unkngoog#page/n57/mode/2up
How come all “arctic specialists” these days are so abysmally ignorant about previous research? Do they think the Arctic was invented by the IPCC?

Count me as +1 for finding the headline a bit histrionic. I love this site specifically because it fights the alarmists with hard evidence, without devolving into kookery. Save the sensationalism for sensational events, please. Remember, we’re being watched by folks who have an active interest in discrediting us.

ShrNfr

Please stop it with the percent. If it were 0.01 in jan. and then 0.001 in feb. that is 90% but only 0.09 degrees and totally meaningless. Report it as percent of the range over the past n years if you have to use percent at all. Otherwise, please stick to degrees. CAGW is horse hockey, but the headline is a bit off the wall.

Keith Willshaw says: March 5, 2014 at 1:15 pm
“Last time I checked down was considered negative”

Well, negative is negative; it’s currently +0.17. What if it went to -0.01, say, and then back the following month to +0.17. In percent?

ckb42

For the math curious:
January anomaly = 0.29; Feb anomaly = 0.17
The percent decrease from Jan->Feb is approximately 40% since 60% of 0.29 is approximately 0.17. Or, 0.17 is 40% lower than 0.29. (With less rounding 42.38%.) So 40% of 0.29 is about equal to the difference in the two temperatures, 0.12.
If the Feb value was 0 instead, it would be 100% lower. If it was negative, it would be a greater than 100% change based on the absolute difference between the two values.
This sort of calculation gets a little weird as you get closer to 0. For example, a decrease from 0.02 to -0.01 would be a 150% decline when the absolute difference is 0.03.
So, I agree with some of the other sentiment in the comments that there should be a better way to express the change in anomaly month to month than as a percentage of the last value. It works for stocks/money but maybe not so much for temperature anomaly. I am drawing a blank on a good replacement off the top of my head.

UAH dropped from 0.291 to 0.172 for an average of 0.232. If it stays this way, 2014 would rank 5th.
RSS dropped from 0.262 to 0.162 for an average of 0.212. If it stays this way, 2014 would rank 11th.
So far, Walter Dnes’ prediction is right on the money. See: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/02/12/jli-first-forecasts/

george e. conant

So I have a thought here. I have corresponded some years back with a fellow who claimed he was they guy who for thirty years did the physical data collection of air samples with weather balloons and that research of physical sampling of the atmosphere revealed that the atmosphere is indeed layered and it is that way due to atomic and molecular wieght of gasses found at various altitudes. The higher you go , the lighter the gasses wieght. Ozone being an oddity , which he explained was formed way up high from oxygen ions being fused into O3 by cosmic radiation. This life long body of work was the basis of the U.S. Standard Atmosphere Model we all learned in 9th grade earth science class. He stated that the troposphere was largly oxygen/nitrogen mix due to the fact that oxygen and nitrogen are very very close in atomic wieght. His departure from employment with NASA as contract scientist was over his tenacious argument with his employer that CFC’s could not possibly degrade the ozone layer because they were entirely too heavy to “get up there”…Why do I digress , well this same fellow stated that somewhere arround 1979 satelite generated data sets became fashionable in place of hard physical data collection, and he stated that satelite sampling vertically through the atmosphere is questionable at best and impossible at worste. So, my ire with all this computer modeling and satelite data concerning atmosphere temps is colored by this mans email to me. I will try to pull it up as it was nearly ten years ago, and I forgot his name. Sorry. BUT, I have to say his discourse makes alot of sense. That is why CO2 can not collect in a layer above the troposphere. Unless someone goes out and physically collects samples from the offending CO2 layer, I for one and hard pressed to believe anything coming from the CAGW establishment.

Marcos

seems strange that Houston had it’s 2nd coldest Feb on record yet the map shows a positive anomaly…

eyesonu

Nick Stokes says:
March 5, 2014 at 12:49 pm
What would the headline be if the anomaly went negative?
==============
What if the moon turned into a pumpkin and was covered with cream cheese icing?
Your imagination is only matched by another commenter here, what’s his name … Moshemer or something like that.

Gail Combs

Tim says: @ March 5, 2014 at 12:49 pm
….It is interesting however that the tropics are pretty cold despite some predicting the onset of El Nino conditions in late 2014. Also interesting that the reason the anomaly is positive is because of high arctic temps, I can’t help but wonder what the temps would look like if this data wasn’t included.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
This seems to indicate the area that are in summer/getting the most sunlight are not warming as much as they were while the Arctic is exporting more heat. (larger differential between the Arctic and outer space)
The Earth is NOT in energy balance so it is always transporting the incoming energy from the sun in the tropics/summer areas to the winter/pole areas and then to outer space.

David Ball

Looks like a segment of a sinusoidal oscillation to me.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_February_2014_v5.png

clipe

Box of Rocks says:
March 5, 2014 at 1:00 pm
[…] and part of Russia that Sarah Palin can see from her front porch […]
You’re confusing Sarah Palin with Tina Fey.
http://snopes.com/politics/palin/russia.asp
“Yes, I could see this one from Alaska. I’m usually not one to Told-Ya-So, but I did,”
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/02/sarah-palin-ukraine-russia-104110.html

heysuess

Let’s have a round of applause for Eston, Saskatchewan, a town that is OBVIOUSLY fully paid up in world-wide carbon credits, taking the lead in humanity’s desperate efforts to save the planet from global warming. Take a bow, Eston. Take a bow.
“Compared to seasonal norms, the coldest place in Earth’s atmosphere in
February was over the southwestern corner of Canada’s Saskatchewan
province near the town of Eston, where temperatures were as much as
4.68 C (about 8.42 degrees Fahrenheit) cooler than seasonal norms.”
(wink)

Jer0me

Quite pleasant here the tropics, thanks. I moved here because it was too cold for me further South, and I am fairly sure it will only get colder. Looks like a good plan so far…

Mac the Knife

Nick Stokes says:
March 5, 2014 at 12:49 pm
“What would the headline be if the anomaly went negative?
Ask and ye shall receive, Nick:
Nick Stokes Speechless!
Details to follow, Film at 11.

geran

Marcos says:
March 5, 2014 at 1:34 pm
seems strange that Houston had it’s 2nd coldest Feb on record yet the map shows a positive anomaly…
>>>>>
Yup. Guess it’s the “adjustment” thingy again.

Blue Sky

Creditability of Watts Up (best climate site on the web) down 40%.

This proves even more heat is going to the deep oceans than the prior month /sarc

Blue Sky:
Based on what, exactly?
Make it a good answer. It’s your credibility at stake here.

M Courtney

Nick Stokes says at March 5, 2014 at 12:49 pm

What would the headline be if the anomaly went negative?

See all you Nick Stokes quibblers?
We can all see that a change of anomaly described as a percentage is misleading.
But Nick Stokes has succinctly pointed out that such a percentage actually cannot even be calculated when the anomaly crosses the baseline.
Nick Stokes has added value to this thread with his correct criticism of weaknesses.

mem

Just consider, if it wasn’t for the ability of computers to manipulate vast swathes of data and for modern weather equipment to measure down to fractions of a degree then the world wouldn’t have warmed in any meaningful sense in the past centrury at all! Perhaps there are times when fine measurements are more misleading than helpful? I suspect that many people have lost all perspective and will still be shouting global warming if the average increase was .01degree. After all the graph would still slope upwards.

heysuess

‘Creditability’? lol

Gary Hladik

(yawn) Up. Down. Up. Down. Same ol’ level sawtooth pattern.
Dang. If we humans are trying to warm the planet, we sure are lousy at it. 🙁
Up. Down. Up. Dow…zzzzzz

geran

M Courtney says:
March 5, 2014 at 1:57 pm
“…Nick Stokes has added value to this thread with his correct criticism of weaknesses.”
>>>>>>
Two minuses make a plus—only works in math.

the pause is due to all the heat going into melting the ice. once the ice has gone i’m reliably informed the temps will rise again.lol

pat

6 Mar: Bloomberg: Frigid U.S. Weather Means Highest Power Prices Since ’08: Energy
By Naureen S. Malik, Christine Harvey and Mario Parker
Supplies of natural gas and coal will decline to six-year lows by the end of this month, government data show. The fuels are used to generate 67 percent of the country’s electricity. Wholesale power for use from April…
Natural gas is up 32 percent compared with a year ago, adding to costs for home heating and power generation. Maintenance planned for a third of U.S. nuclear reactors in the next three months, the most for the season in at least 14 years, will further boost reliance on fossil fuels…
Central Appalachian coal, the benchmark U.S. grade, jumped 14 percent since Nov. 1 to $62.63 a ton yesterday on the Nymex after reaching a two-year high of $63.75 on Feb. 26.
Appalachian coal stands to benefit the most from higher natural gas prices, because it’s in the region where the two fuels compete the most, Michael Hsueh, an analyst at Deutsche Bank AG in London, wrote in a Feb. 28 report.
Power producers will choose to rely on coal-fired units before turning to gas over the next 12 months “unless they run into problems replenishing their already-depleted coal stockpiles,” Angie Storozynski, a New York-based utility analyst with Macquarie Capital USA Inc., wrote in a Feb. 25 report…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-05/frigid-u-s-weather-means-highest-power-prices-since-08-energy.html