![places_gulfstream_sat3[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/places_gulfstream_sat31.jpg?quality=83)
NARRAGANSETT, R.I. – March 3, 2014 – Several recent studies have generated a great deal of publicity for their claims that the warming climate is slowing the pace of the Gulf Stream. They say that the Gulf Stream is decreasing in strength as a result of rising sea levels along the East Coast.
However, none of the studies include any direct measurements of the current over an extended period to prove their point.
But this is exactly what has been underway at the University of Rhode Island and Stony Brook University for the last 20 years: measurement of the strength of the Gulf Stream. And according to a paper published in Geophysical Research Letters, the researchers find no evidence that the Gulf Stream is slowing down. These new results reinforce earlier findings about the stability of Gulf Stream transport based on observations from as far back as the 1930s.
H. Thomas Rossby, a professor at the URI Graduate School of Oceanography, has spent much of his long career studying ocean circulation – especially the Gulf Stream – and how it makes its way across the Atlantic towards Europe and as far north as northern Norway. For the last 20 years he and his colleagues have measured the Gulf Stream using an acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) attached to a ship, the freighter Oleander, which makes weekly trips across the Gulf Stream from New Jersey to Bermuda. The instrument, which measures the velocity of water moving beneath the ship down to more than 600 meters, has collected some 1,000 measurements of the Gulf Stream since it was installed in late 1992.
“The ADCP measures currents at very high accuracy, and so through the repeat measurements we take year after year, we have a very powerful tool by which to monitor the strength of the current,” said Rossby. “There are variations of the current over time that are natural — and yes, we need to understand these better — but we find absolutely no evidence that suggests that the Gulf Stream is slowing down.”
The rapidly flowing Gulf Stream plays a major role in the global heat balance through its transport of very warm water from the Caribbean toward Europe.
For this reason alone, Rossby says, there is good reason to be concerned about the long-term stability of the Gulf Stream, since if the Gulf Stream were slowing, a decrease in the flow of warm water to the northern North Atlantic could cause significant cooling in parts of Europe. But the data tell him that there is no evidence that this is happening, contrary to recent claims in the literature.
Although he officially retired in 2011, Rossby is continuing his Gulf Stream research and hopes to install a new instrument on the Oleander in the coming years that will be able to profile currents to even greater depths.
“Once we do that, all of the water going north will be well within our reach,” he said.
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h/t to WUWT reader “Patrick”
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On the long-term stability of Gulf Stream transport based on 20 years of direct measurements
T. Rossby1,*, C. N. Flagg2, K. Donohue1, A. Sanchez-Franks2, J. Lillibridge3
Abstract
In contrast to recent claims of a Gulf Stream slowdown, two decades of directly measured velocity across the current show no evidence of a decrease. Using a well-constrained definition of Gulf Stream width, the linear least square fit yields a mean surface layer transport of 1.35 × 105 m2 s−1 with a 0.13% negative trend per year. Assuming geostrophy, this corresponds to a mean cross-stream sea level difference of 1.17 m, with sea level decreasing 0.03 m over the 20 year period. This is not significant at the 95% confidence level, and it is a factor of 2–4 less than that alleged from accelerated sea level rise along the U.S. Coast north of Cape Hatteras. Part of the disparity can be traced to the spatial complexity of altimetric sea level trends over the same period.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013GL058636/abstract
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Or maybe PalioGulfStreamatologist
The CAGW PR company (anyone know ‘who’s in charge?) has tried to change focus on this subject with this paper in SciAm
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/global-warming-slows-antarcticas-coldest-currents/
This timing of this Scientific American / Nature article cannot be by accident.
Filled with dancing strawmen…
Unmentionable says: March 5, 2014 at 3:11 am
Didn’t spot your comment earlier …
You expressed my line of thought in a different way …
As I see it, it’s partly an educational issue and I have nearby example of how the quality has deteriorated over the years. Our (in Sweden) current school system was created primarily out of politicians who back then (early 1900) thought of the nation’s best, believe it or not actually many left-wing’ers, before the mandatory school system started. The term “Talent Reserve” was coined by one of our country fathers (Per-Albin Hansson, Lab.), when they suspected that there were people out in the country, who couldn’t afford education and at the same time had the potential for learning and later could contribute to the country’s welfare. The term is now used as a derogatory term for people who can’t complete thought processes or just have “bad luck” when trying … (like the pseudo Green movement …)
Here, primary school is controlled at municipal level, then given the political coloration of local governance. Despite the local responsibility, some municipalities (ex. Gothenburg) with Labour Party / Greens as governance, have the habit of blaming their very own bad performed decisions on seated right wing government … (a.k.a. “psychological projection” …)
That our functional government controlled school came under municipal responsibility and control, was due to a former Minister of Education – Göran Persson (later “Prime Minister”), which even to this day engaged in some subversive activities (including massive theft from several public pension funds to pay mismanaged large banks’ self-inflicted situation, without any demand of refunding – ie. general earmarked funds, which led to today’s Retirement Game System, mostly controlled by finance institutions – high fees and low returns (w. politicians’ acceptance) … Left wing voters here didn’t and still don’t object to this behaviour …) The “modernization” of our school system led to days authorized teacher being out competed salary wise by cheaper and unauthorized “teachers” (in several cases wannabes with political ambitions …).
It’s evident that the majority of these unqualified teachers themselves lack important skills, such as pedagogy and even basic knowledge of the subject, in order to teach them. In some communities they have systematically provided access to “teachers” who lacks qualifications, in order to circumvent the hiring genuine teacher full time … An economic cheaper solution, however short term, which is a hard real cost to society in the long run and is very difficult to compensate (lost generations …). Have been talking to parents, who are in despair at being unable to question the lack of educational situation (like in climate issues) for the kids, without the kids risking lower grades …
I belong to the fortunate here, that had only qualified teachers throughout my education in both primary and secondary school. In the latter, we became even encouraged by teachers in science to think for ourselves and draw conclusions from what we should have learned in the past and even questioning teachers, if necessary, provided that one could specify applicable argument! (Don’t forget the often important overall picture! Without it, the chance of missing something important, is huge …). This means that I (and my fellow student’s) even perceive flaws in statements from “skeptical” scientists in areas such as climate science, containing deficiencies in mathematics, logic, statistics and even in fundamental physics.
We even see the school degeneration effect in the media, as in many other countries, where standards of qualification together with professional pride seems to have disappeared and short story writers can make their voices heard in messages disguised as news … (media as tool of politics instead of being genuine scrutineers of politics and power …) Their use of language in terms of grammar and vocabulary? Clearly debatable, even if they usually are not interested in such a discussion … (Some actually defend it as their liberty to express themselves in any way they prefer. A logic that don’t last when presenting news, that are supposed to contain stuff free from politics and religious believes. For me more of a definition of a novel writer rather then a journalist …)
In the big picture, then humanity can’t afford inhumane people/organizations/public agencies, who really are classified as criminals under legal system that exists, can still be able to perform damage to the society, like they have already done and will continue to try to perform (ex Gore, Obama, W. Bush, The Club of Rome, The Bilderberg Group, EPA, CIA, EU and any associated of these …). The self-proclaimed “Diplomat status” that apply to persons of concerned, is used up since very long time, as I see it …Here in Europe, we are witnessing the EU administration/corruption grow like a cancerous tumor, with shrinking benefits and higher economical/social cost to society in return.
If nobody is interested to do something, nothing will happen/change!
… And the “leadership” expect this …
Some will just settle and say “vote differently“, due to ignorance and/or intent. It’s not enough, as a new generation of truly honest and serious politicians are required, when there are no real options available today high up in the political hierarchy … (Sadly enough, it appears that “the lipstick on the pig” story even applies at local level …) There are to many “sticky fingers” involved, who rather want to act as pure consumers at the expense of others and don’t like to contribute something real (non symbolic) to society – The Parasite Syndrome!
Has anyone [measured] Mosher’s credibility 50 times a year?
SasjaL says: @ur momisugly March 6, 2014 at 3:32 am
It is why I tutor for free….
So I emailed the research paper to RI Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, one of the head shriekers of AGW, and here was his pathetic response:
“Dear Mr. XXXX:
Thank you for writing to me about climate change. I appreciate having the benefit of your views on this important issue.
There is an overwhelming consensus among climate scientists that climate change is happening and that it is driven primarily by human activity. I recognize that those who hold a skeptical view of climate change can manipulate the latest data to show different results, as they have with other peer-reviewed analyses that have been released over the years. However, the fact of the matter is that countless studies, surveys, and reports have been published about the high percentage of climate scientists whose research has demonstrated an anthropogenic role in global climate change. Most of the world’s leading climate scientists and scientific organizations agree that human activities are a main driver of global climate change, including 18 premier U.S. scientific organizations and nearly 200 worldwide scientific organizations.
Perhaps the most notable proof of the scientific consensus regarding man-made climate change is the latest United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report on the science of climate change. It expresses over 95 percent certainty that humans are the primary cause of climate change, which is up from 90 percent in the previous IPCC report. In each of the five reports the IPCC has issued, scientists have linked climate change to human activity. The new report contains more than 7,000 pages of information and involves over 830 scientists from 85 countries, making it one of the most comprehensive scientific studies and one of the largest scientific collaborations in history. If hundreds of leading researchers from across the world can repeatedly find consensus on this issue, surely the scientific evidence must be compelling.
Climate change poses a serious threat to our health, safety, economy, and security. Because of climate change, some types of extreme weather events are becoming more severe and frequent across the globe and temperature records are routinely being broken. Emissions of heat-trapping pollution have also led to rising sea levels and warmer, more acidic oceans that have compromised our fisheries and harmed marine life. For a coastal state like Rhode Island, these threats are especially dangerous, and they will only get worse if we do not address this threat. I believe the science is convincing, and I consider the environmental and economic implications of climate change are among the most important public policy issues confronting our country and the world.
Once again, thank you for contacting me about climate change. Although you and I may disagree on this issue, I appreciate having the benefit of your views and you can be sure that I will keep your concerns in mind. I hope you will stay in touch about this, or any other matter of importance to you.
Sincerely,
Sheldon Whitehouse
United States Senator
The warmists make pompous doom laden pronouncements without bothering to go out and do some plain empirical observation, such as used to be known as science before they themselves highjacked the term. Why am I not surprised?