![places_gulfstream_sat3[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/places_gulfstream_sat31.jpg?quality=83)
NARRAGANSETT, R.I. – March 3, 2014 – Several recent studies have generated a great deal of publicity for their claims that the warming climate is slowing the pace of the Gulf Stream. They say that the Gulf Stream is decreasing in strength as a result of rising sea levels along the East Coast.
However, none of the studies include any direct measurements of the current over an extended period to prove their point.
But this is exactly what has been underway at the University of Rhode Island and Stony Brook University for the last 20 years: measurement of the strength of the Gulf Stream. And according to a paper published in Geophysical Research Letters, the researchers find no evidence that the Gulf Stream is slowing down. These new results reinforce earlier findings about the stability of Gulf Stream transport based on observations from as far back as the 1930s.
H. Thomas Rossby, a professor at the URI Graduate School of Oceanography, has spent much of his long career studying ocean circulation – especially the Gulf Stream – and how it makes its way across the Atlantic towards Europe and as far north as northern Norway. For the last 20 years he and his colleagues have measured the Gulf Stream using an acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) attached to a ship, the freighter Oleander, which makes weekly trips across the Gulf Stream from New Jersey to Bermuda. The instrument, which measures the velocity of water moving beneath the ship down to more than 600 meters, has collected some 1,000 measurements of the Gulf Stream since it was installed in late 1992.
“The ADCP measures currents at very high accuracy, and so through the repeat measurements we take year after year, we have a very powerful tool by which to monitor the strength of the current,” said Rossby. “There are variations of the current over time that are natural — and yes, we need to understand these better — but we find absolutely no evidence that suggests that the Gulf Stream is slowing down.”
The rapidly flowing Gulf Stream plays a major role in the global heat balance through its transport of very warm water from the Caribbean toward Europe.
For this reason alone, Rossby says, there is good reason to be concerned about the long-term stability of the Gulf Stream, since if the Gulf Stream were slowing, a decrease in the flow of warm water to the northern North Atlantic could cause significant cooling in parts of Europe. But the data tell him that there is no evidence that this is happening, contrary to recent claims in the literature.
Although he officially retired in 2011, Rossby is continuing his Gulf Stream research and hopes to install a new instrument on the Oleander in the coming years that will be able to profile currents to even greater depths.
“Once we do that, all of the water going north will be well within our reach,” he said.
###
h/t to WUWT reader “Patrick”
================================================================
On the long-term stability of Gulf Stream transport based on 20 years of direct measurements
T. Rossby1,*, C. N. Flagg2, K. Donohue1, A. Sanchez-Franks2, J. Lillibridge3
Abstract
In contrast to recent claims of a Gulf Stream slowdown, two decades of directly measured velocity across the current show no evidence of a decrease. Using a well-constrained definition of Gulf Stream width, the linear least square fit yields a mean surface layer transport of 1.35 × 105 m2 s−1 with a 0.13% negative trend per year. Assuming geostrophy, this corresponds to a mean cross-stream sea level difference of 1.17 m, with sea level decreasing 0.03 m over the 20 year period. This is not significant at the 95% confidence level, and it is a factor of 2–4 less than that alleged from accelerated sea level rise along the U.S. Coast north of Cape Hatteras. Part of the disparity can be traced to the spatial complexity of altimetric sea level trends over the same period.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013GL058636/abstract
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Another global warming lie nailed.
A pity that Professor Rossby has retired, as the watermelons will say that he is not an academic.
Or maybe he couldn’t speak out before retirement?
What? Use observations instead of modeling to figure something out? UNPRECEDENTED.
The measurements MUST be wrong, obviously !! /sarc
New headline: Gulf Stream not slowing due to Global Warming !
“The instrument, which measures the velocity of water moving beneath the ship down to more than 600 meters, has collected some 1,000 measurements of the Gulf Stream since it was installed in late 1992.”
imagine the results were the opposite of what was claimed. Imagine they found a slow down.
around 50 measurements a year?
If the Gulf Stream is getting slower, then it will be colder not only in UK/Eire but also in Scandinavia. In the latter region we’re missing that kind of cold at the moment …
Be a heck of a job, though. Spending your early retirement strenuously taking electronic readings from a ship plying the Gulf Stream. It’s amazing what actual data will do to clear up a debate.
Direct observation and model error evaluation are so last century and non-consensus.
Whoever says so has the dynamics backward.
Nowadays, to ensure integrity, get a retired scientist — what a calamity state of science.
Steven Mosher says:
March 4, 2014 at 11:24 am
You need to describe what counts as “a measurement” before stating this criticism. Given the proper kind of measurement, fifty might be spot on.
Mosher:
“In 1992, we installed the ADCP profiling instrument the in the hull of the MVOleander and have operated it continuously since then.”
The readings are continuous , there are more than 52 readings a year. If you deal with data based on thermometers I can see how you could make the mistake.
What????? Actual ‘honest-to-God” science? Inconceivable!!!!! /sarc
What are you going to believe, my models or their lying data?
It is interesting to note that H. Thomas Rossby at URI is the son of the legendary Carl Gustav Rossby, after whom Rossby waves are named.
“around 50 measurements a year?” [Steven Mosher @ur momisugly 11:24]
I check the air pressure in the tires of my car at least 2 times a year. It rarely changes so there seems little need to check more often.
Let the character assassinations begin. The heretic. As is typical the watermelons won’t answer with data but with rhetoric.
Mosher: “imagine the results were the opposite of what was claimed. Imagine they found a slow down . . . around 50 measurements a year?”
Yeah, I imagine the warmists would have about 8 “peer reviewed” papers out, some [snip] like Rachel Madcow would have the liberal herd moooing about how we are “killing the ocean” and when someone rational tried to point out that data might be too sparse for “certainty” they’d be called holocaust deniers. After that, the readings would be “adjusted” and predictions of catastrophic earth killing current-change would be broadcast by the MSM and Al Gore would propose a “current tax” and then my tax dollars would get invested in ManBearPigs “green current company” which would go bankrupt while some the President called anyone that didn’t believe in “Current Change” an anti-science-flat-earth-denier.
Did I miss something, or did that cover it for you?
Can someone who understands this stuff comment on the following:
According to World Ocean Review, the oceans hold approximately 38,000 gigatons of CO2.
http://worldoceanreview.com/en/wor-1/ocean-chemistry/co2-reservoir/
According to the IEA, if I’m reading this correctly, our fossil fuels burning has emitted approximately 32 gigatons of CO2 into the atmosphere.
We know that some of our CO2 emissions remain in the atmosphere, some is utilized by the biosphere, and some goes into the ocean (due to condensation and rainfall?)…
My question: since 32/38000 = 0.0008; or… our total cumulative emissions in the past few hundred years is equal to 0.08% of the amount of CO2 stored in the oceans (less than 1/10th of 1%, how can our emissions have any appreciable impact on marine life? Is the ocean ‘that’ sensitive to less than 1/10th of 1%?
What am I missing?
Thanks!
Oops, here’s the IEA link for my comment above:
http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2013/june/name,38773,en.html
The Gulf Stream is a laminar flow of a large mass of water, not turbulent, so each measurement will be highly reliable and of far greater significance than a single thermometer reading.
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=228825
AW or anyone else know of this???
regards.
Over 100 published science journal articles just gibberish
http://www.foxnews.com/science/2014/03/01/over-100-published-science-journal-articles-just-gibberish/
Note: No, it’s not April Fools Day
‘directly measured’ you see that is where he goes wrong , only ‘model’ data is of real value
SDB says:
March 4, 2014 at 12:17 pm
What am I missing?
Thanks! 000
Religion and Funding are what you are missing SDB, you are on the Scientific side.
regards