Newsbytes: Why The Met Office Has Hung Its Chief Scientist Out To Dry

Met Office Science Chief Attacked For Climate Claim

Britain’s winters are getting colder because of melting Arctic ice, the Government’s forecaster said yesterday. Met Office chief scientist Julia Slingo said climate change was “loading the dice” towards freezing, drier weather. –Ben Jackson, The Sun, 11 April 2013

Bungling weather bosses predicted a drier than usual winter, it has emerged. The Met Office’s staggeringly inaccurate forecast was made at the end of November last year – just a month before the record-breaking deluge began. –Tom Newton Dunn, The Sun, 11 February 2014

The chief scientist of the Met Office has been criticised for claiming that “all the evidence” indicated climate change had played a role in the recent storms and flooding. Some scientists are said to be concerned that the remark has been interpreted as drawing a strong connection between climate change and the exceptional winter weather when the evidence is incomplete. Her speech came after the Prime Minister said he “very much suspected” that there was a link. “What Dame Julia says goes, at least by implication, beyond what most climate scientists are willing to say,” one academic said. “I find it very hard to look inside her mind as to what made her think that was a sensible thing to say.” –Oliver Moody, The Times, 18 February 2014

Instead of defending Julia Slingo’s statement on the floods the Met Office have defended the original report. This is very interesting: it seems that the Met Office is unable to come up with any defence of its chief scientist’s public statements. Yesterday I suggested that Slingo’s statement had misled the public. This clarification doesn’t seemed to have changed anything at all. It looks bad. Very bad. –Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, 17 February 2014

A study by the Met Office and Centre for Ecology and Hydrology concluded that “it is not possible, yet, to give a definitive answer on whether climate change has been a contributor or not.” At the launch of the report, the Met Office chief scientist, Dame Julia Slingo, seemed to go a bit beyond what appeared in print. She said: “All the evidence suggests there is a link to climate change.” Not some of the evidence, but all of it. The Met Office scrambled to produce a statement to assert that there was no disagreement. It also confirmed the “uncertainty” about the storm track in the North Atlantic but did not address whether the chief scientist had gone beyond the conclusions of their own report. Does this leave us any wiser? No. In my experience scientists always disagree – that’s how research advances. –David Shukman¸BBC News, 18 February 2014

In the row over whether climate change is causing the current floods and storms, the sceptics are the ones who are sticking to the consensus, as set out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) — you know, the body that the alarm-mongers are always telling us to obey. And it is the sceptics who have been arguing for years for resilience and adaptation, rather than decarbonisation. While the green lobby has prioritised decarbonisation, sceptics have persistently advocated government spending on adaptation, so as to grab the benefits of climate change but avoid the harm, and be ready for cooling as well if the sun goes into a funk. –Matt Ridley, The Times, 17 February 2014

Most of the climate sceptics operate on self-employed shoestrings and cost you nothing: Andrew Montford, David Holland, Nic Lewis, Doug Keenan, Paul Homewood, Fay Kelly-Tuncay. There is only one professional sceptic in the entire country — Benny Peiser — and he is not paid by the taxpayer. –Matt Ridley, The Times, 17 February 2014

Extreme weather events being taken as signs for the coming end unless sinful ways are repented is as old as civilization. Today’s climate panic is merely just the latest relapse to a very old mental disorder that has afflicted mankind for thousands of years. The only antidote is reason and knowledge. –Pierre Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, 17 February 2014

This Newsbytes is from The GWPF and Dr. Benny Peiser

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Apoxonbothyourhouses
February 18, 2014 12:45 pm

Mike Bromley the Kurd says:
February 18, 2014 at 10:05 am “They are a herd of loose cannons, the whole lot of them.”
A new collective noun – love it.

Apoxonbothyourhouses
February 18, 2014 12:59 pm

Stephen Richards says:
February 18, 2014 at 12:09 pm
Make these clowns stand on their record!
Sadler Stephen to “stand” would require both a spine and a record that was not a moveable feast (with apologies to Ernest Hemingway).

Apoxonbothyourhouses
February 18, 2014 1:01 pm

ooops that should read ….. sadly Stephen.

David L.
February 18, 2014 1:11 pm

dbstealey
Wayne Delbeke
Gail Combs:
Thanks! You showed me a lot to be optimistic! /no sarc

sophocles
February 18, 2014 1:13 pm

Olavi says:
February 18, 2014 at 9:54 am
What is purpose of Metoffice or meteorologians anyhow? If they can’t predict weather at all, it’s waste of money.
=============================================
Back in the days of non-elected hereditary government, those of
kings and queens, the position of Court Astrologer was a well paid
sinecure.
A few mutterings here of
‘burn the witches before the crops fail … again’
and
‘i can foresee a biblical deluge on the 5th of February next year. it’s
the End of The World! ™ Prepare the Arks! Repent your sins!’
there , kept the royal ears attuned and the royal purses open. For
intercession, of course, the then equivalent of `decarbonisation.’
This is now an age of Reason and Elightenment, of Education and
Science.
Apart from the position’s title, and `witches’ and `sinners’ morphing
into `sceptics,’ what’s changed?

February 18, 2014 1:23 pm

Welcome to the glacial inception……

Harry Passfield
February 18, 2014 1:28 pm

Will this period be known as Slingo’s Reign?

R. de Haan
February 18, 2014 1:31 pm

The only antidote is reason and knowledge.
Right, for all climate alarmists, start reading the weather history of the UK: http://www.booty.co.uk

R. de Haan
February 18, 2014 1:33 pm

Newsbytes: Why The Met Office Has Hung Its Chief Scientist Out To Dry
Hung out to dry, outdoors, In the UK in this weather? Fat chance.

Resourceguy
February 18, 2014 1:50 pm

So let it be written that in the neo-dark ages of science one phrase ruled them all and in the darkness bind them. You know of which I speak.

February 18, 2014 2:00 pm

Everything he believes is “consistent with” global warming. Although, admittedly, the garden gnome missing from my front yard is “consistent with” alien abduction.

February 18, 2014 2:13 pm

Monday Newsnight decided to ‘investigate’. They had a skeptic who they made a point of saying was ‘not a scientist’ up against a climate scientist. Ok lets leave the fact the bbc could have got a non co2 scientist if they wanted to [so why didn’t they?] lets see the scientist they did approve of….. Global warming professor Kevin Anderson ‘cuts back on washing and showering’ to fight climate change – Admits at UN climate summit: ‘That is why I smell’ – Defends his call for ‘a planned economic recession’ http://www.climatedepot.com/2013/11/19/global-warming-professor-kevin-anderson-cuts-back-on-washing-and-showering-to-fight-climate-change-admits-at-un-climate-summit-that-is-why-i-smell/
From non validated models one cannot extrapolate or predict a ‘co2 deathstar’ that is going to kill us all.then use that myth as a tin opener to try to force feed everyone some eco utopianism.

February 18, 2014 2:20 pm

Will Nitschke says:
February 18, 2014 at 2:00 pm

Everything he believes is “consistent with” global warming. Although, admittedly, the garden gnome missing from my front yard is “consistent with” alien abduction.

Everything I believe is entirely consistent with my beliefs. QED.

February 18, 2014 2:21 pm

Even the IPCC admit there are problems with their models towards the end of the audio…..
Evaluation of Climate Models Wednesday 5 February 2014 Presenting author: Dr Catherine Senior, Met Office and Prof Peter Cox,University of Exeter. This is the pdf http://www.rmets.org/sites/rmets.org/files/presentations/05022014-senior-cox.pdf ……and there is an audio http://www.rmets.org/sites/rmets.org/files/presentations/05022014-senior-cox.mp3 …..non of these caveats on the models are ever shown in the media.
as long as the models cannot copy past climate then what use are their predictions? Their co2 deathstar just blew up
Death Star explosion

richardscourtney
February 18, 2014 2:32 pm

Will Nitschke:
Applause for your post at February 18, 2014 at 2:00 pm.
Outstandingly the best post in the thread.
Richard

Jimbo
February 18, 2014 2:43 pm

A while back we were told to expect warmer winters with less snow. Now we are told THIS!

Independent – 24 December 2010
Expect more extreme winters thanks to global warming, say scientists
Scientists have established a link between the cold, snowy winters in Britain and melting sea ice in the Arctic…Vladimir Semenov write: “Our results imply that several recent severe winters do not conflict with the global warming picture but rather supplement it.”
[Dr. Vladimir Semenov – International Maritime Organisation & Dr Vladimir Petoukhov – Potsdam Institute]
______________________
LifeScience – 1 February, 2011
With Climate Change, Expect More Monster Winter Storms
“There’s no inconsistency at all,” Michael Mann, the director of the Penn State Earth System Science Center, told LiveScience. “If anything, this is what the models project: that we see more of these very large snowfalls.”
[Dr. Michael E. Mann – Penn State University]
______________________
Abstract 20 OCT 2012
Dr. Shuting Yang et al
Arctic sea ice reduction and European cold winters in CMIP5 climate change experiments
…While Europe will warm overall in the future, we find that episodes of cold months will continue to occur and there remains substantial probability for the occurrence of cold winters in Europe linked with sea ice reduction in the Barents and Kara Sea sector….
Geophysical Research Letters – Volume 39, Issue 20, 28 October 2012
doi: 10.1029/2012GL053338
______________________
Abstract – 12 March 2013
Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic sea ice loss
Professor Qiuhong Tang et al
…The results suggest that the winter atmospheric circulation at high northern latitudes associated with Arctic sea ice loss, especially in the winter, favors the occurrence of cold winter extremes at middle latitudes of the northern continents.
Environmental Research Letters
doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014036
______________________
Discovery News – 16 February, 2014
Jet Stream Shift Could Mean Harsher Winters
…A warmer Arctic could permanently affect the pattern of the high-altitude polar jet stream, resulting in longer and colder winters over North America and northern Europe, U.S. scientists say….
This suggests “that weather patterns are changing,” Francis said. “We can expect more of the same and we can expect it to happen more frequently.”
[Dr. Jennifer Francis – Rutgers University]

Alan McIntire
February 18, 2014 2:44 pm

“Stark Dickflüssig says:
February 18, 2014 at 2:20 pm
Will Nitschke says:
February 18, 2014 at 2:00 pm
…..
Everything I believe is entirely consistent with my beliefs. QED.”
This is slightly off topic, but I picked up a bit of information reading Raymond Smullyan’s books.
As Smullyan pointed out, Kurt Goedel pointed out that any aximoatic system at least as complicated as arithmetic is either inconsistent or incomplete. Presumably most of us have a non-simplistic world view- that means there are philosophical questions that make sense for which we have no answers, or else our beliefs are inconsistent, or possibly both.
So not only everything I believe, but everything I don’t believe, is consistent with my (inconsistent) beliefs.

Jimbo
February 18, 2014 2:58 pm

Even I have to laugh at my last posting. This is absurd. You do have to read the link about less snow first then the humour hits you like a carbon bomb. 🙂 What a bunch of devious jack asses.

February 18, 2014 3:00 pm

jimbo
imo the wild swings in hindsight ‘forecasts’ may mirror the wild swings in the beerosphere?
the models did not predict usa freezing nor the uk storms. They predicted drier than average. which is why COBRA had no useful warning of floods until it was coming thro people’s cat flaps.
however this guy predicted the worst winter storms for the uk back in october 2013. He describes his reasoning here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78219-late-autumn-and-winter-201314-mild-stormy-short-cold-snaps-later/
meanwhile even a farmer almanac predicted the usa freeze back in aug 2013 http://www.cbsnews.com/news/farmers-almanac-predicts-a-bitterly-cold-winter/
so MetOs £30m models are worse than an almanac and an amateur hobbyist?
wild swings in the jet stream with strong winds and floods to uk are also associated with sunspot minimums like dalton and maunder.

February 18, 2014 3:01 pm

Mardla wht the % – do you mean we lost?
Can you explain that please.

eyesonu
February 18, 2014 3:21 pm

Has Slingo been emaiing Richard Winsor (a.k.a. Lisa Jackson)?

February 18, 2014 4:06 pm

Alan McIntire says:
February 18, 2014 at 2:44 pm

So not only everything I believe, but everything I don’t believe, is consistent with my (inconsistent) beliefs.

Oh, come on now. Do you seriously believe that?
😉

Jimbo
February 18, 2014 4:50 pm

Here is Dana from the Guardian rightly reminding us that the weather is not the climate.

Dana
“Rob is right, you’ve got it backwards. We’re not talking about weather, we’re talking about climate. The longer the timeframe, the more opportunity the long-term forcings have to dominate the short-term cycles (including PDO and AMO).”
http://notrickszone.com/2011/01/06/know-your-opponent-climate-bet-warmist-believes-in-the-hockey-stick/#comment-8962

It’s sad to see Dana now being obsessed about the ‘weatherclimate’.

Jimbo
February 18, 2014 4:51 pm

PS that Dana quote was from 2011.

February 18, 2014 5:01 pm

Met Office …
They don’t know what’s going on, any more than say … Obama or Valerie Jarrett …
.