Newsbytes: Why The Met Office Has Hung Its Chief Scientist Out To Dry

Met Office Science Chief Attacked For Climate Claim

Britain’s winters are getting colder because of melting Arctic ice, the Government’s forecaster said yesterday. Met Office chief scientist Julia Slingo said climate change was “loading the dice” towards freezing, drier weather. –Ben Jackson, The Sun, 11 April 2013
Bungling weather bosses predicted a drier than usual winter, it has emerged. The Met Office’s staggeringly inaccurate forecast was made at the end of November last year – just a month before the record-breaking deluge began. –Tom Newton Dunn, The Sun, 11 February 2014

The chief scientist of the Met Office has been criticised for claiming that “all the evidence” indicated climate change had played a role in the recent storms and flooding. Some scientists are said to be concerned that the remark has been interpreted as drawing a strong connection between climate change and the exceptional winter weather when the evidence is incomplete. Her speech came after the Prime Minister said he “very much suspected” that there was a link. “What Dame Julia says goes, at least by implication, beyond what most climate scientists are willing to say,” one academic said. “I find it very hard to look inside her mind as to what made her think that was a sensible thing to say.” –Oliver Moody, The Times, 18 February 2014

Instead of defending Julia Slingo’s statement on the floods the Met Office have defended the original report. This is very interesting: it seems that the Met Office is unable to come up with any defence of its chief scientist’s public statements. Yesterday I suggested that Slingo’s statement had misled the public. This clarification doesn’t seemed to have changed anything at all. It looks bad. Very bad. –Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, 17 February 2014

A study by the Met Office and Centre for Ecology and Hydrology concluded that “it is not possible, yet, to give a definitive answer on whether climate change has been a contributor or not.” At the launch of the report, the Met Office chief scientist, Dame Julia Slingo, seemed to go a bit beyond what appeared in print. She said: “All the evidence suggests there is a link to climate change.” Not some of the evidence, but all of it. The Met Office scrambled to produce a statement to assert that there was no disagreement. It also confirmed the “uncertainty” about the storm track in the North Atlantic but did not address whether the chief scientist had gone beyond the conclusions of their own report. Does this leave us any wiser? No. In my experience scientists always disagree – that’s how research advances. –David Shukman¸BBC News, 18 February 2014

In the row over whether climate change is causing the current floods and storms, the sceptics are the ones who are sticking to the consensus, as set out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) — you know, the body that the alarm-mongers are always telling us to obey. And it is the sceptics who have been arguing for years for resilience and adaptation, rather than decarbonisation. While the green lobby has prioritised decarbonisation, sceptics have persistently advocated government spending on adaptation, so as to grab the benefits of climate change but avoid the harm, and be ready for cooling as well if the sun goes into a funk. –Matt Ridley, The Times, 17 February 2014

Most of the climate sceptics operate on self-employed shoestrings and cost you nothing: Andrew Montford, David Holland, Nic Lewis, Doug Keenan, Paul Homewood, Fay Kelly-Tuncay. There is only one professional sceptic in the entire country — Benny Peiser — and he is not paid by the taxpayer. –Matt Ridley, The Times, 17 February 2014

Extreme weather events being taken as signs for the coming end unless sinful ways are repented is as old as civilization. Today’s climate panic is merely just the latest relapse to a very old mental disorder that has afflicted mankind for thousands of years. The only antidote is reason and knowledge. –Pierre Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, 17 February 2014

This Newsbytes is from The GWPF and Dr. Benny Peiser

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104 thoughts on “Newsbytes: Why The Met Office Has Hung Its Chief Scientist Out To Dry

  1. “Climate chance is going to make dry weather . . . flooding .. . . sunny. . . . rainy . . . all kinda weather wich is abnormal or normal of whatever weather we know it for sure with at least 95% confidence.”
    What is purpose of Metoffice or meteorologians anyhow? If they can’t predict weather at all, it’s waste of money.

  2. It’s a slip of the tongue that shows the mental built-in bias that taints their view of the world. Every thing we do is bad and it’s all our fault and we must atone.

  3. How does that work? It seems that politicians and their minions can spout off about climate change being the cause of everything, with complete impunity. Even if it runs completely at odds with what even their own scientists seem to be saying. I don’t get it. They are a herd of loose cannons, the whole lot of them.

  4. All the politicians see a link and say we have to get used to wetter winters. How much have they cash have they set aside to evacuate the low-lying areas which is surely the only long term answer? None.

  5. Julia Slingo has joined the long list of undeserving award recipients. I think we can use the awards as an index of the shoddiest political hack science practitioners. The Nobel Prize has been possibly irredeemably degraded by its presentation to the likes of Al Gore (hack extraordinaire for a phoney CAGW film he produced and also won an Academy Award for), IPCC for egregious alarmist, activist, anti-human, civilization destroying tracts, Obama (as a bribe in advance so he would feel obligated to misrepresent his country at COP15 in Copenhagen- small redemption by not doing so at that time), Royal Society awards to debunked “6 degrees Mark Lynas”, and scientific society awards to M. Mann for debunked hockey stick, P. Gleick for theft of information, and most recently Turney of the Ship of Fools for his complete arsenine search for global warmiing in Antarctica and, of course, Dame Julia gets decorated by Buckingham Palace. WUWT with these awards already?

  6. Climate science is splitting along two lines. Those who accept the models have failed and are going back to the drawing board and those who grudgingly accept the models have failed and are clutching at any straw on a passing wind.

  7. Pierre Gosselin : “Extreme weather events being taken as signs for the coming end unless sinful ways are repented is as old as civilization. Today’s climate panic is merely just the latest relapse to a very old mental disorder that has afflicted mankind for thousands of years. The only antidote is reason and knowledge.”
    My parallel is religious fundaentalism, but Pierre’s words will do just fine

  8. Loaded dice toward freezing? That’s NOT what Vicky Pope (head of the climate predictions program at the Hadley Centre) said in 2003:

    +0.3 degrees increase in 10 years. Half the years after 2009 hotter than 1998. “Strong statements” she says. She’s got the loss of the Amazon rainforest and the path to Greenland melting in this excerpt. Hardly colder.

  9. Mardler,
    They have won nothing. They are deceiving themselves, and getting rich with rent seeking and moral hazard — so far.

    But the hypesters of climate are deceiving fewer people, have lost countries and are hemorrhaging credibility at an unsustainable rate.

  10. I really hate that they effectively switched the language from Global Warming to Climate Change. Unless you’re a warmist, you should refer to it as Global Warming. Keep it alive because it looks a lot more ridiculous to say “Global Warming is causing colder drier winters” than “Climate change is causing colder drier winters”.

    The CO2 theory is, and always will be, to warm the planet. Unless Arrhenius was wrong and CO2 is a refrigerant.

  11. Mardler says:

    “We lost.”

    May I refer you to the half British, half American Winston Churchill?

    “Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts.”

    And:

    “Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm.”

    And of course:

    “Never give in–never, never, never, never, in nothing great or small, large or petty, never give in except to convictions of honour and good sense. Never yield to force; never yield to the apparently overwhelming might of the enemy.”

  12. hunter says:
    February 18, 2014 at 10:41 am
    Mardler,
    They have won nothing. They are deceiving themselves, and getting with with rent seeking and moral hazard- so far.
    But the hypesters of cliamte are deceiving fewer people, have lost countries and are hemorraging credibility at an unsustainable rate.

    ———————–

    I hope you are right and Mardler is wrong, but I fear Mardler is right :-(

  13. dbstealey says:
    February 18, 2014 at 10:45 am
    Mardler says:

    “We lost.”

    May I refer you to the half British, half American Winston Churchill?

    “Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts.”

    And:

    “Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm.”

    And of course:

    “Never give in–never, never, never, never, in nothing great or small, large or petty, never give in except to convictions of honour and good sense. Never yield to force; never yield to the apparently overwhelming might of the enemy.”

    ————————-

    Good advice! Makes me feel better!

  14. who would have thought there were so many Chicken Little’s. They freak they freak …Cant they take a little time have a drink and wonder how they might make their place on this planet a little safer for them in their own homes/neighbor hood town or what ever island they live on to be safe ?

    They should at least recognize that at the very best of what we know we don’t know very much …

  15. DavidL,

    As Henry Ford said:

    “Whether you think you can, or you think you can’t — you’re right.”

    I think we can turn the tide. We see it happening already. The entire ‘runaway global warming’ scare is being ridiculed everywhere. Alarmists are on the ropes. Just because they give each other awards doesn’t mean the public is still blindly following them.

    Their support is crumbling, due to facts and observations. Those are hard things to argue against.

  16. CAGW is an intelligence test.
    The fools and bandits , who infest our bureaucracies have failed this test.
    Every generation, some fad come along that exposes these mediocrity’s for what they are.
    Parasites sucking the life out of society.
    Here to help… sure!

  17. Time for Slingo to GO!

    She has been consistently pumping the AWG scamongering and flying in the face of the sceintific evidence. “Chief Scientist” my foot. Cheif propagandist, more like.

    There are a lot people at the Met. Office trying to do a proper job and I don’t think they find this sort of stupidity that helpful.

    IFAIK the Met Office is still the only major national climate authority that has wound back predictions for next few years. (One cautious step in the right direction).

    I don’t see much evidence of the “chief scientist” doing any science. It just seems like a fancy name for the press officer down there.

    Time for Slingo to GO!

  18. I saw that Met Office forecast at the time, and a few weeks ago tried to recover it but couldn’t find it — frustrating! Their record of haplessness is astounding — you couldn’t achieve such futility if you tried with supercomputers, but they did.

  19. dbstealey says:
    February 18, 2014 at 10:45 am

    and

    dbstealey says:
    February 18, 2014 at 10:56 am

    *

    Thank you.

    You are right, of course. The blinkers are well and truly off for most people now, not just some. The alarmists in their tight little clusters turn a blind eye, award themselves money and shiny things and trip off to sunny wherever to pretend everyone is following them after all and think of them as heroes. They are glimpsing discord, but close their eyes and repeat the mantra – it worked so well before. If they can just convince the people that they have won… then they have won, they just have to say it often enough. So they ignore or belittle everything that contradicts them, especially the facts.

    For many of them, the crash that’s coming will be brutal.

  20. I am pleased to see that the BBC’s Shukman, who was for many years a cheerleader for AGW, is now hedging his bets and looking at and presenting both sides of the argument. I get the feeling that many commentators are starting to become embarrassed by their tunnel vision and are now starting the process of subtle repositioning which is affording them a broader view.

  21. Mardler says:

    February 18, 2014 at 10:26 am
    I’m afraid Slingo et al are proof that the game is won.
    We lost

    100% correct. Think about it. If their chief scientist can get away with utter crap like that without being challenged in any way shape or form then how the hell do we think we are going to persuade the 99% numpties to go along with our science.

  22. dbstealey says:
    February 18, 2014 at 10:45 am

    Exactly! And never, ever miss an opportunity to point out the Met Office’s batting average for weather forecasting is around 0.000. A chimp with a dart board could make better predictions.

    Make these clowns stand on their record!
    They are WRONG nearly all of the time!

  23. Peter Plail says:

    February 18, 2014 at 11:53 am
    I am pleased to see that the BBC’s Shukman, who was for many years a cheerleader for AGW, is now hedging his bets

    What BBC are you watching. Be careful. While Shukman is pretending to know what he is talking about the wanderer Palab Ghosh is out smacking the BBC travel card (£10 million last year) preaching the AGW meme. The BBC has no intention whatever of changing their sermons and I’m not even sure they are able to without a complete change of personnel from the top down and that just is not going to happen.

    They know they can continue to win this discussion. You can’t talk to Barry Oblarny or Cameron they can.

  24. What I find truly depressing is that MSM can publish the statement that the Met Office’s super duper new models can better analyze weather events and quote its Chief Shaman as stating that the global warming was responsible for the floods without pointing out that the Met Office had forecast a dry winter. Did they not use their super duper model when they made that forecast, or had their Chief Shaman not yet prophecised that global warming would lead to floods.

  25. Through the end of September 2008, the sun was “spotless” on 200 days of the year. Not a single sunspot flared up on those days. The Earth’s reaction to this period has been dramatic and directly observed for the first time. In addition to observing the nearly clockwork response to coronal holes opening up on the sun’s surface, SABER has also observed the Earth’s upper atmosphere’s muted response to the sun’s lull – one of its quietest periods in half a century.

    SABER, operating since 2002, has been approved for four more years of operation, which should allow for a critical 11-year data set. That would cover the radiative activity of Earth’s upper atmosphere for the entirety of an 11-year solar cycle.

    In addition to the “breathing,” the atmosphere’s response to the sun’s sometimes furious, sometimes-quiet activity has surprised Mlynczak in a number of ways.

    In the quiet solar year of 2008, for instance, the upper atmosphere’s ultraviolet radiation emissions have dipped to levels 10 times lower than when SABER’s observations began in 2002. At the same time, SABER detects far more short-term changes in solar activity than previously thought.

    “It looks noisy,” Mlynczak said. “But it’s not statistical noise, it’s not instrument noise. It’s geophysical noise.”

    SABER also spots massive spikes in energy flow that rise and then dissipate quickly. The atmosphere, it turns out, can dump radiation into space extremely efficiently to respond to a burst of solar activity and maintain Earth’s radiation budget.

    Kozyra has been fascinated by the role the sun continues to play in Earth’s upper atmosphere even during one of the quietest solar periods in centuries. She expected that this solar minimum would allow for study of how the troposphere influences the rest of the upper atmosphere without solar interference.

    “What we actually found was that it didn’t happen. We were seeing the atmosphere was being very strongly driven by the sun,” Kozyra said. “That’s very surprising. We’re learning more about what space weather looks like, and it wasn’t what we thought.”

    http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/AGU-SABER.html

  26. After i read this post, i change my thing about the climate, and now i gonna change my actions to help the problems with climate and the world, the dry is not good

  27. Well, it’s not like weather changes from year to year. This uptrend of extremes sure has come a long way since just last year. Here is the Met Office annual summary for 2013 to be found at:

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2013/annual

    “The following represents a provisional assessment of the weather experienced across the UK during 2013 and how it compares with the 1981 to 2010 average.

    The annual statistics for 2013 are generally near average and unremarkable. However, there were some significant weather events through the year. A late winter and exceptionally cold spring, with unseasonably late snowfalls, lead into a warm and sunny summer. October and December saw Atlantic storms that brought rain and at times very high winds, causing widespread disruption.

    The UK mean temperature of 8.8 °C was 0.1 °C below the 1981-2010 average. This is identical to the 2012 value. March was the equal second coldest March for the UK on record. Both March and spring overall were the coldest since 1962. In contrast July was the third warmest in the series and it was the warmest summer since 2006. The July heat-wave was in marked contrast to the run of recent poor summers from 2007 to 2012.

    The UK annual rainfall total was 1086 mm (94% of average), drier than average but not exceptionally so. May, October, and December were the only months to record above average rainfall for the UK. In both October and December, some parts of the UK received over twice the normal amount of rainfall for the month, and it was the wettest December on record for Scotland.
    Overall it was a sunnier than average year (104 %), but again not exceptionally so. It was the sunniest July since 2006 and the third sunniest July in the series from 1929.”

  28. Make these clowns stand on their record!
    They are WRONG nearly all of the time!

    YES we know but how many times in the last five years have you read or heard the MSM mention their utterly useless seasonal forecast. How many time has the MSM challenged their monthly forecasts. For crying out loud it isn’t difficult. They have failed at every forecast. Dry summers are wet summers, dry winters are wet winters, warm springs are cold springs but they have never been challenged by anyone in the public eye or MSM. They claim to make their seasonal forecasts with the same climate model as they use to advise government policy. Prof Betts needs this model to keep his job. He preaches to students how wonderful and accurate these models are and YET ……

  29. No global warming for many years and therefore without climate change there is nothing different that can be blamed on weather since the late 1990s. What has changed now compared over the past decade+? The answer is nothing to do with warming and if the warming period prior this had caused these weather changes, then they would have occurred 20+ years ago not now.

    Blaming the jet stream moving into a more southerly position and very cold air moving south into the North Atlantic, has got nothing to do with global warming and the nonsense alarmist term climate change. This behavior of the jet stream is opposite to what a warming world in alarmist theory fairy land should be. Julia Slingo blames everything on global warming because she cant back it up with science. Talk is cheap scientific evidence is everything, but over recent years the primary role for the chief scientist is environmentalist propaganda.. If it had been medieval times Julie SIngo would had been blaming it on a local girl/lady near her. (the witch did it)

  30. Fear the coming climate stagnation! Man’s insistence on remaining addicted to fossil fuels inevitably enhances the greenhouse effect thereby reducing temperature differentials spatially and temporally. Temperature differentials drive weather dynamics; therefore the weather will become more stagnant. Less hurricanes, tornadoes, summer breezes, thunderstorms, trade winds, monsoons, rain, currents, rivers, etc. will drive civilization to collapse and threatens the very survival of 90% of all species on earth that depend on dynamic weather for their livelihood. The end is nigh! Repent now! Denounce fossil fuels! Reduce your carbon footprint before it’s too late! Think of the grandchildren!

    (/sarc)

  31. David L. says:
    February 18, 2014 at 10:46 am
    hunter says:
    February 18, 2014 at 10:41 am
    Mardler,
    ———————–
    I hope you are right and Mardler is wrong, but I fear Mardler is right :-(
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    They can only be right if you allow them to be right. You have the ability to choose. I choose happiness over depression; no matter what.

  32. “Most of the climate sceptics operate on self-employed shoestrings and cost you nothing: Andrew Montford, David Holland, Nic Lewis, Doug Keenan, Paul Homewood, Fay Kelly-Tuncay. There is only one professional sceptic in the entire country — Benny Peiser — and he is not paid by the taxpayer. Matt Ridley, The Times, 17 February 2014″

    This has perhaps been the case in the meteorology oriented public civil service, including academia. On the other hand, while AGW has been basking in generous public funding, necessary activities have been run on shoestring.

    I cannot exclude that the most competent and ambitious peers have already started exposing the alarmists’ Potemkin villages. This would explain the last act of desperation from Met Office chief scientist Julia Slingo.

  33. It is a real pickle when you have only the term climate change for the answers to all variations in weather in short-, medium-, and long-term cycles. But I guess that does not hinder some unprofessional types riding on activists and settled policy types for support. Only the vague, disconnected user group suffers. Can you say tenure?

  34. Isn’t it a bit unfair (& perhaps profane) to keep referring to the silly little gal as “Damn Julia Slingo”?

    Oh. s/n/e… Err, never mind. Well, here in the old US (of A, not M) we have Article I Section 9 to fall back on.

    Still, I’d like ol’ Damn Slingo to state conclusively that I will not be winning the lottery any time soon. Please?

  35. In reply to:
    Bungling weather bosses predicted a drier than usual winter, it has emerged. The Met Office’s staggeringly inaccurate forecast was made at the end of November last year – just a month before the record-breaking deluge began.
    The chief scientist of the Met Office has been criticised for claiming that “all the evidence” indicated climate change had played a role in the recent storms and flooding. … ….Her speech came after the Prime Minister said he “very much suspected” that there was a link.
    William:
    ‘all the evidence’ What evidence? When will the AGW madness end? Enough is enough.

    The warmists will not discuss the observations and analysis that unequivocally disproves dangerous warming. Rather than scientific discussion concerning ‘climate change’ (past, present, and future that identifies key issues, includes data, graphs, analysis and so on) and a discussion of the costs and benefits of spending money on green scams, they resort to name calling and rhetoric propaganda, every weather events proves we must waste trillions of dollars on green scams.

    John Kerry: “perhaps the world’s most fearsome weapon of mass destruction.”
    Kerry described those who do not accept that human activity causes global warming as “shoddy scientists” and “extreme ideologues”. (Great, Kerry creates a strawman and then attacks the strawman. The issue is not any warming, it is dangerous warming.)

    Kerry: “One of the arguments that we do hear is that it’s going to be too expensive to be able to address climate change… … Serious analysts understand that the costs of doing nothing far outweigh the costs of investing in solutions now. (The world has spent almost $2 trillion fighting the war on climate change. What is the benefit? Will there be an end to weather?) You do not need a degree in economics or a graduate degree in business in order to understand that the cost of flooding, the cost of drought, the cost of famine, the cost of health care, the cost of addressing this challenge is simply far less — the costs of addressing this challenge are far less than the costs of doing nothing.”

  36. Climate science in the year 2014: make a prediction that turns out to be utterly wrong, ignore that and claim that the outcome is “because of climate change”. Added bonus: claim that you were never wrong about any of it.

  37. David L. says: @ February 18, 2014 at 10:46 am

    I hope you are right and Mardler is wrong, but I fear Mardler is right :-(
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    Remember “They” own the regualr media but as the obvious more and more penetrate the brains of the Sheeple and thanks to the internet alternate views are available, they lose credibility that they will never regain.

    Once the blind fold is off people start questioning a lot of other things. Foreclosuregate was a real eye-opener for many in the USA. We had a grass roots reaction – the T(ax) E(nough) A(lready) Party that made a major dent in the elections. So the comeback was the ‘Occupy Wall Street’ movement only they lost control of that and ended up passing Anti-Occupy Law to protect politicians from protesters.
    Even before that The US government was running into trouble with trying to push people around and getting pushed back.

    USDA Brings Armed Guards To Protect Itself From Wendell Berry

    “In Kentucky, about 150 people attended the USDA [Pretends-to-be-Listening] session. Thirty-seven people spoke, with more than 90% speaking against a mandatory NAIS. Those who spoke against it were mostly individuals, speaking for themselves. Pro-NAIS speakers all represented organizations or their employers. Wendell Berry gave a rousing speech declaring that this was the first meeting he’d been at with USDA, after decades of activism, where USDA brought armed police to protect itself. Ralph Packard, a natural livestock farmer, agreed with Wendell Berry, that the government will need its guns if they make the program mandatory and require people to register their farms and animals.> Speakers came from Kentucky, Indiana, and Ohio. Break-out groups started early, but no consensus was possible. Some USDA personnel continued to insist that NAIS is voluntary, ignoring the coercion that USDA has funded, and state mandatory programs, also funded by USDA. One USDA staffer painstakingly stated that there are many tagging options and that microchips aren’t required “at this time.” When confronted that his comment meant this could change, he would not respond. It was obvious that pro-NAIS personnel were uncomfortable, but also did not come prepared to make concessions. More promising were the connections made among anti-NAIS activists. The Community Farm Alliance held a press conference at noon. Adam Barr, Ralph Packard, Weldell Berry, and Karin Bergener spoke about why NAIS will wipe out small, independent farmers and the meetings still failed to truly provide farmers a forum because of the late notices, and timing during busy season.”

    People are increasingly fed-up with BOTH political parties.

    A CBS News poll taken after the shutdown found that 76 percent of Americans don’t think they have much say in what their government does, … If too many people feel like they have no say, that will lead to lower voting rates – which tends to leave only the most partisan voters casting ballots.

    At the same time, as people feel less able to affect change, the number of independents has been steadily creeping upward. A Gallup poll that has studied voter preferences for the last 25 years showed that a record number of Americans – 42 percent – self-identified as political independents in early January,….

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/are-americans-as-polarized-as-their-politicians/

    Other polls are showing the same thing. No longer can a party count on blind loyalty of voters. Now they have to be convinced and thanks to the internet the propaganda is working less and less.

    We saw that in Canada and Australia we are seeing that in the UK ans well as the USA.

  38. The chief scientist of the Met Office has been criticised for claiming that “all the evidence” indicated climate change had played a role in the recent storms and flooding.

    Henry says
    Actually the chief scientist isn’t even wrong
    The climate is changing, naturally, as I found:

    http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/04/29/the-climate-is-changing/

    We are currently globally cooling from the top down
    as my results from Alaska

    and ice from Antarctica are showing

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/22/nasa-announces-new-record-growth-of-antarctic-sea-ice-extent/#more-96133

    We already SEE the results of this global cooling
    As the temp. differential between the equator and the poles grow, we will have more rain around the equator (flooding in Brazil, Indonesia, Philipines) and the jets are staying further south (flooding of England). Anyone with a brain can predict what will happen next. There will simply be less moisture around to go to the higher latitudes….that means droughts. We will have serious droughts coming up soon. In fact I calculated that the dust bowl drought of 1932-1939 will be back on the Great Plains from 2021-2028.
    So, if we could just get everybody off their CO2 warmed horses, we might actually prevent a greater disaster, by getting the farmers to all move south, to Africa and South America, where there is more rain and warmth during a global cooling period.
    Or you can also stay in England and enjoy the bad weather…

  39. Mike Bromley the Kurd says:
    February 18, 2014 at 10:05 am “They are a herd of loose cannons, the whole lot of them.”

    A new collective noun – love it.

  40. Stephen Richards says:
    February 18, 2014 at 12:09 pm
    Make these clowns stand on their record!

    Sadler Stephen to “stand” would require both a spine and a record that was not a moveable feast (with apologies to Ernest Hemingway).

  41. Olavi says:
    February 18, 2014 at 9:54 am

    What is purpose of Metoffice or meteorologians anyhow? If they can’t predict weather at all, it’s waste of money.
    =============================================
    Back in the days of non-elected hereditary government, those of
    kings and queens, the position of Court Astrologer was a well paid
    sinecure.
    A few mutterings here of
    ‘burn the witches before the crops fail … again’
    and
    ‘i can foresee a biblical deluge on the 5th of February next year. it’s
    the End of The World! ™ Prepare the Arks! Repent your sins!’
    there , kept the royal ears attuned and the royal purses open. For
    intercession, of course, the then equivalent of `decarbonisation.’

    This is now an age of Reason and Elightenment, of Education and
    Science.

    Apart from the position’s title, and `witches’ and `sinners’ morphing
    into `sceptics,’ what’s changed?

  42. Newsbytes: Why The Met Office Has Hung Its Chief Scientist Out To Dry

    Hung out to dry, outdoors, In the UK in this weather? Fat chance.

  43. So let it be written that in the neo-dark ages of science one phrase ruled them all and in the darkness bind them. You know of which I speak.

  44. Everything he believes is “consistent with” global warming. Although, admittedly, the garden gnome missing from my front yard is “consistent with” alien abduction.

  45. Monday Newsnight decided to ‘investigate’. They had a skeptic who they made a point of saying was ‘not a scientist’ up against a climate scientist. Ok lets leave the fact the bbc could have got a non co2 scientist if they wanted to [so why didn't they?] lets see the scientist they did approve of….. Global warming professor Kevin Anderson ‘cuts back on washing and showering’ to fight climate change – Admits at UN climate summit: ‘That is why I smell’ – Defends his call for ‘a planned economic recession’ http://www.climatedepot.com/2013/11/19/global-warming-professor-kevin-anderson-cuts-back-on-washing-and-showering-to-fight-climate-change-admits-at-un-climate-summit-that-is-why-i-smell/

    From non validated models one cannot extrapolate or predict a ‘co2 deathstar’ that is going to kill us all.then use that myth as a tin opener to try to force feed everyone some eco utopianism.

  46. Will Nitschke says:
    February 18, 2014 at 2:00 pm

    Everything he believes is “consistent with” global warming. Although, admittedly, the garden gnome missing from my front yard is “consistent with” alien abduction.

    Everything I believe is entirely consistent with my beliefs. QED.

  47. Even the IPCC admit there are problems with their models towards the end of the audio…..
    Evaluation of Climate Models Wednesday 5 February 2014 Presenting author: Dr Catherine Senior, Met Office and Prof Peter Cox,University of Exeter. This is the pdf http://www.rmets.org/sites/rmets.org/files/presentations/05022014-senior-cox.pdf ……and there is an audio http://www.rmets.org/sites/rmets.org/files/presentations/05022014-senior-cox.mp3 …..non of these caveats on the models are ever shown in the media.

    as long as the models cannot copy past climate then what use are their predictions? Their co2 deathstar just blew up

    Death Star explosion

  48. Will Nitschke:

    Applause for your post at February 18, 2014 at 2:00 pm.

    Outstandingly the best post in the thread.

    Richard

  49. A while back we were told to expect warmer winters with less snow. Now we are told THIS!

    Independent – 24 December 2010
    Expect more extreme winters thanks to global warming, say scientists
    Scientists have established a link between the cold, snowy winters in Britain and melting sea ice in the Arctic…Vladimir Semenov write: “Our results imply that several recent severe winters do not conflict with the global warming picture but rather supplement it.”
    [Dr. Vladimir Semenov - International Maritime Organisation & Dr Vladimir Petoukhov - Potsdam Institute]
    ______________________

    LifeScience – 1 February, 2011
    With Climate Change, Expect More Monster Winter Storms
    “There’s no inconsistency at all,” Michael Mann, the director of the Penn State Earth System Science Center, told LiveScience. “If anything, this is what the models project: that we see more of these very large snowfalls.”
    [Dr. Michael E. Mann - Penn State University]
    ______________________

    Abstract 20 OCT 2012
    Dr. Shuting Yang et al
    Arctic sea ice reduction and European cold winters in CMIP5 climate change experiments
    …While Europe will warm overall in the future, we find that episodes of cold months will continue to occur and there remains substantial probability for the occurrence of cold winters in Europe linked with sea ice reduction in the Barents and Kara Sea sector….
    Geophysical Research Letters – Volume 39, Issue 20, 28 October 2012
    doi: 10.1029/2012GL053338
    ______________________

    Abstract – 12 March 2013
    Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic sea ice loss
    Professor Qiuhong Tang et al
    …The results suggest that the winter atmospheric circulation at high northern latitudes associated with Arctic sea ice loss, especially in the winter, favors the occurrence of cold winter extremes at middle latitudes of the northern continents.
    Environmental Research Letters
    doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014036
    ______________________

    Discovery News – 16 February, 2014
    Jet Stream Shift Could Mean Harsher Winters
    …A warmer Arctic could permanently affect the pattern of the high-altitude polar jet stream, resulting in longer and colder winters over North America and northern Europe, U.S. scientists say….
    This suggests “that weather patterns are changing,” Francis said. “We can expect more of the same and we can expect it to happen more frequently.”
    [Dr. Jennifer Francis - Rutgers University]

  50. “Stark Dickflüssig says:
    February 18, 2014 at 2:20 pm
    Will Nitschke says:
    February 18, 2014 at 2:00 pm
    …..
    Everything I believe is entirely consistent with my beliefs. QED.”

    This is slightly off topic, but I picked up a bit of information reading Raymond Smullyan’s books.
    As Smullyan pointed out, Kurt Goedel pointed out that any aximoatic system at least as complicated as arithmetic is either inconsistent or incomplete. Presumably most of us have a non-simplistic world view- that means there are philosophical questions that make sense for which we have no answers, or else our beliefs are inconsistent, or possibly both.

    So not only everything I believe, but everything I don’t believe, is consistent with my (inconsistent) beliefs.

  51. Even I have to laugh at my last posting. This is absurd. You do have to read the link about less snow first then the humour hits you like a carbon bomb. :-) What a bunch of devious jack asses.

  52. jimbo

    imo the wild swings in hindsight ‘forecasts’ may mirror the wild swings in the beerosphere?
    the models did not predict usa freezing nor the uk storms. They predicted drier than average. which is why COBRA had no useful warning of floods until it was coming thro people’s cat flaps.

    however this guy predicted the worst winter storms for the uk back in october 2013. He describes his reasoning here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78219-late-autumn-and-winter-201314-mild-stormy-short-cold-snaps-later/

    meanwhile even a farmer almanac predicted the usa freeze back in aug 2013 http://www.cbsnews.com/news/farmers-almanac-predicts-a-bitterly-cold-winter/

    so MetOs £30m models are worse than an almanac and an amateur hobbyist?

    wild swings in the jet stream with strong winds and floods to uk are also associated with sunspot minimums like dalton and maunder.

  53. Here is Dana from the Guardian rightly reminding us that the weather is not the climate.

    Dana
    “Rob is right, you’ve got it backwards. We’re not talking about weather, we’re talking about climate. The longer the timeframe, the more opportunity the long-term forcings have to dominate the short-term cycles (including PDO and AMO).”

    http://notrickszone.com/2011/01/06/know-your-opponent-climate-bet-warmist-believes-in-the-hockey-stick/#comment-8962

    It’s sad to see Dana now being obsessed about the ‘weatherclimate’.

  54. Julia Slingo, the ‘Mystic Meg’ of Met Office chief scientists.

    …..On second thoughts, ‘Mystic Meg’ would probably be more accurate and scientific.

    For anyone not familiar with ‘Mystic Meg’ here she is with her ‘sister’ predicting the weather (and other things).

  55. All the evidence suggests that Met Office chief scientist Julia Slingo received her degree from a box of crackerjack.

  56. I find this very interesting (Bishop Hill quote of the Met Office press release), and another example of the Alarmists’ disconnect from reality:

    ” ‘With respect to changes in storminess, the good news is that recent advances in climate science are starting to pay dividends. Improved spatial resolution in models – that means that they can model weather and climate in more spatial detail – is allowing the models to represent some of the key factors that drive regional weather patterns. As the Met Office report states ‘With a credible modelling system in place it should now be possible to perform scientifically robust assessments of changes in storminess, the degree to which they are related to natural variability and the degree to which there is a contribution from human-induced climate change.’ ”

    Oh, so there is good news, eh? I fail to see what it might be, unless it’s that the models can now disagree with actual thermometers geometrically.

    Because the truth is they cannot, and have never, modeled reality with any kind of accuracy which would justify pauperizing civilization. My Fitzroy Storm glass from Weems and Plath is more accurate. There is NOTHING “scientifically robust” about making assessments on the results of a model that you program to say it’s getting hotter, and shouting, “Eureka!” when, no surprise, the model says it’s getting hotter. Damn the thermometers, full speed ahead with the destruction of the Scientific Method and civilization with it.

    This 15 year hiatus in warming might be a great opportunity to learn about climate mechanisms: steady-states reveal little clues about how things work. Dynamic systems reveal clues that can lead to more knowledge…but you see, “The debate is over.” So why look for answers, right?

    Someone once told me that people who know everything are the ones who never learn anything. I invite your attention to the group for whom the debate is over; QED. And they tie up grants and resources countering “skeptical” claims from people who are actually interested in finding answers—as opposed to Alarmists looking for anything to bolster their political stance on the issues—using public finds to protect their egotistical claims.

    To all the Alarmist politicians and advocates who claim to be scientists, as I said before: one day, hopefully not too long from now, people will wake up to the fact that you’ve been peddling nonsense in order to prolong your fifteen minutes. After that, only the most egregious of you will even earn a footnote—of the kind to which no one aspires—and the rest of you, we will forget you, and history will not record you. Not because you were wrong. But because you are venal, and in your hubris you put your ego ahead of the science.

    (No, history won’t record me at all, either. But then, I don’t want it to.)

  57. I find it interesting that a record low hurricane summer in the Atlantic has been followed by a winter of intense storms for the UK. Is the stored energy that wasn’t released as usual in the summer now coming back to bite us in the winter? and is this behavior part of the AMO oscillation? i.e. goin into the negative phase.

  58. wbrozek says:
    February 18, 2014 at 6:10 pm

    Meanwhile, on this side of the pond, Newt Gingrich thinks Kerry should resign: “Newt Gingrich is amplifying his call for Secretary of State John Kerry to resign over his comments that climate change represents the biggest challenge “of our generation.”

    Ah, wait. This Newt Gingrich wants someone to resign over saying stupid crap about weather? Or do I have the wrong fat-faced, cheating liar?

    In all fairness, I’d be happy to toss ol’ Ketchup Prince over the White House fence, to protest something or other, but I don’t think Newty should be talking.

  59. Stark Dickflüssig says:
    February 18, 2014 at 7:43 pm

    We all make mistakes and he has seen the error of his ad.
    Gingrich on global warming ad with Pelosi: ‘The dumbest single thing I’ve done in years’

    Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2011/11/08/gingrich-on-global-warming-ad-with-pelosi-the-dumbest-single-thing-ive-done-in-years/#ixzz2tjuvWfei

  60. The Nobel Prize has been possibly irredeemably degraded by its presentation to the likes of Al Gore

    Don’t let it bother you. It was only the Nobel Beauty prize.

  61. “”Extreme weather events being taken as signs for the coming end unless sinful ways are repented is as old as civilization.””
    ————————————————
    That is a tough one. On the face of it we can see some extreme events, while at the same time it certainly looks like the world is going to hell in the proverbial handbasket. There may be a link in there somewhere. hehehehe

  62. R. de Haan says: @ February 18, 2014 at 1:33 pm

    Newsbytes: Why The Met Office Has Hung Its Chief Scientist Out To Dry

    Hung out to dry, outdoors, In the UK in this weather? Fat chance.
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    Newsbytes: Why The Met Office Has Hung Its Chief Scientist Out To Dry drown

    There, fixed it for you.

  63. Jimbo says: @ February 18, 2014 at 2:43 pm
    You need to start your list with this to get the full impact:
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    Independent – 20 March 2000
    According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.

    “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.
    ______________________

  64. Sean says:
    February 18, 2014 at 6:39 pm

    All the evidence suggests that Met Office chief scientist Julia Slingo received her degree from a box of crackerjack.
    —————————–
    I shall have to run out and buy some, if that is the case!!!

  65. We have ascertained that whatever the weather does, it can be blamed on climate change. The Met Office are so far up their collective backsides in thinking that the public are stupid and they are right, that they can continue to publish totally inaccurate weather forecasts based on their totally inaccurate computer models. Eventually the public will realise that the Met Office are not fit for purpose and have morphed into a pressure group where their secondary function (climate change) has replaced their primary function (accurate weather forecasting).
    What is needed is continual publicity of their inaccurate forecasts, they have relied for too long on telling us in October to expect a cold snowy winter, the public forgetting this and then telling us in February that the floods we have experienced are due to climate change.

  66. I believe there has been a typo “since records began in 1854″… It is not UK Met Office, it’s “Meth Office”

  67. NOAA for their part predicted in December the United States Midwest would have an average temperature / average perception winter. In that the winter has become one for the record books it demonstrates the particularly low level of the state of the art of mid term forecasting. Long term forecasting is utter voodoo at this phase of understanding.

  68. “There is only one professional sceptic in the entire country — Benny Peiser — and he is not paid by the taxpayer. –Matt Ridley, The Times, 17 February 2014″
    If Nic Lewis counts as a sceptic I’d reckon Paul Dennis is also. Paul gets paid, probably in part by the UK taxpayer, to do research at UEA where he runs an isotope geochem lab. We wouldn’t get far in paleoclimatology without isotope geochem to enable us to use ice cores and forams as temperature proxies. I get the impression that Paul has little time for the paleoclimatological garbage that comes out of the neighbouring CRU lab.

  69. If Slingo had any professional pride in what she does she would have resigned by now. As far as I am aware she hasn’t!

  70. Sean says:
    February 18, 2014 at 6:39 pm

    All the evidence suggests that Met Office chief scientist Julia Slingo received her degree from a box of crackerjack

    Sorry you are completely wrong. Itwas gained through hard, enduringly difficult work at the local supermarket searching all the cornflake packets.

  71. Paraphrasing–Children just aren’t going to know what science is. They will come to know it as a form of multi-level marketing.

  72. ‘End our sinful ways’ Some loony tune anti EU anti-homosexual blamed the floods on the govts law on homosexual marriage.

  73. Two days ago it snowed. Today a lot of that snow melted. That’s a change.
    Am I a “Climate Scientist” now?

  74. whether you adapt or decarbonise you are wrong on both counts. the Japanese climate satellite IBUKU evidence is conclusive. the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is coming from high vegetation equatorial areas of the earth with no net carbon dioxide from northern europe and the US. the debate is over the satellite evidence is irrefutable. they have deliberately altered ground based temperature data to suit the global warming disciples but they cannot alter the satellite evidence!

  75. Terri Jackson:

    At February 20, 2014 at 1:22 am you say

    whether you adapt or decarbonise you are wrong on both counts. the Japanese climate satellite IBUKU evidence is conclusive. the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is coming from high vegetation equatorial areas of the earth with no net carbon dioxide from northern europe and the US. the debate is over the satellite evidence is irrefutable. they have deliberately altered ground based temperature data to suit the global warming disciples but they cannot alter the satellite evidence!

    Sadly, the issue is not as clear-cut as you suggest.

    There are people (e.g. the IPCC and Ferdinand Engelbeen) who assert that the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration (measured at Mauna Loa since 1958) is accumulation of man-made emissions. Their assertion is clearly wrong for several reasons one of which you cite.

    There are other people (e.g. Bart) who claim the cause of the CO2 rise is a response to the temperature rise from the Little Ice Age (LIA).

    And there are others (e.g. me and my co-authors) who say the available information cannot resolve the true cause or causes of the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration as measured at Mauna Loa.

    The problem is that the system of the carbon cycle seems to have altered its equilibrium state and is adjusting towards a new equilibrium. Some mechanisms of the system have long time constants so they take years and decades to adjust to a new equilibrium. Using that understanding we were able to model the atmospheric CO2 rise as having a variety of causes both natural and anthropogenic (i.e. man-made).
    (ref. Rorsch A, Courtney RS & Thoenes D, ‘The Interaction of Climate Change and the Carbon Dioxide Cycle’ E&E v16no2 (2005) ).

    Each of our models matched the empirical data for each year without any need for ‘adjustment’ such as the unjustifiable 5-year smoothing which the IPCC uses to obtain agreement between its Bern model and the empirical data.

    So, the issue is;
    What has changed the equilibrium state of the carbon cycle?
    The most likely cause of the change is the temperature rise from the LIA, but it could be several other things including the anthropogenic CO2 emission.

    Importantly, the sources and sinks of CO2 – which you cite – provide no answer to that question.

    What can be said is that the IPCC’s understanding of the cause of the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration is falsified by much empirical data including the satellite data which you cite.

    I have written this post to avoid this thread being disrupted by debate of the carbon cycle. The issues have been debated repeatedly on WUWT – notably between Ferdinand Engelbeen and myself – and there is no purpose in debating the issues again here. If you want to see some of the previous discussions then use the WUWT Search facility for Salby and read the associated threads.

    I hope this is helpful.

    Richard

  76. With the AMO plunging now, the MET office will wrong at accelerated rates going forward. This assumes they stick with certain underlying warming biases in their predictions.

  77. With the AMO plunging now, the MET office will be wrong at accelerated rates going forward. This assumes they stick with certain underlying warming biases in their predictions.

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