No, global warming did NOT cause the storms, says one of the Met Office’s most senior experts
One of the Met Office’s most senior experts yesterday made a dramatic intervention in the climate change debate by insisting there is no link between the storms that have battered Britain and global warming.
Mat Collins, a Professor in climate systems at Exeter University, said the storms have been driven by the jet stream – the high-speed current of air that girdles the globe – which has been ‘stuck’ further south than usual.
Professor Collins told The Mail on Sunday: ‘There is no evidence that global warming can cause the jet stream to get stuck in the way it has this winter. If this is due to climate change, it is outside our knowledge.’
His statement carries particular significance because he is an internationally acknowledged expert on climate computer models and forecasts, and his university post is jointly funded by the Met Office.
Prof Collins is also a senior adviser – a ‘co-ordinating lead author’ – for the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). His statement appears to contradict Met Office chief scientist Dame Julia Slingo.
Last weekend, she said ‘all the evidence suggests that climate change has a role to play’ in the storms.
Prof Collins made clear that he believes it is likely global warming could lead to higher rainfall totals, because a warmer atmosphere can hold more water. But he said this has nothing to do with the storm conveyor belt.
He said that when the IPCC was compiling its Fifth Assessment Report on climate change last year, it discussed whether warming might affect the jet stream. But, he went on, ‘there was very low confidence that climate change has any effect on the jet stream getting stuck’. In the end, the possibility was not even mentioned in the report.
h/t to “Jabba the Cat”
Related:
Somerset Floods – February Update
UK flooding, Met Office, and all that – a map from 878AD tells us more than Slingo
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
barry:
I can foresee a probable response from you to my post addressed to you at February 19, 2014 at 2:14 am. Hence, I provide this addendum so the issue cannot be obfuscated by an irrelevance.
My post does not address the issue of accelerated hydrological cycle (i.e. warmer air holds more moisture) asserted by Slingo. This is because it is not relevant to the issue at hand which is the dispute between Collins and Slingo.
The increased precipitation results from the number and frequency of storms. The series of storms would have increased the precipitation whether or not the hydrological cycle has increased.
Richard
Richard,
The Earth’s rotation brings sunrise.
barry:
Your post at February 19, 2014 at 5:37 am says in total
Your post states an irrelevance instead of admitting you were wrong. No surprise there.
Richard
barry says:
February 19, 2014 at 5:37 am
Richard,
The Earth’s rotation brings sunrise.
Low pressure systems forming and traveling across the Atlantic to Ireland, the UK and the west coast of Europe from the American continent in context of a severe record breaking US winter, explains why southern england had heavy rain and a stormy mid winter, earths rotation is important due to the inverse square law of energy and distance traveled (work done).
Careful: The Daily Mail is hardly an unbiased source – it is the home of many climate change deniers and has a very poor record of accurate reporting of scientific stories. In fact the Met Office has said that it is too early to tell for certain if climate change is in anyway directly responsible for the storms and by extension the flooding, but that the body of evidence is growing and that the increased levels of precipitation being seen on a more regular basis are consistent with fundamental physics of a warming world.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/2014/uk-storms-and-floods