El Niño and La Niña events are the dominant modes of natural climate variability on Earth, which is why the state of the tropical Pacific is continuously monitored. El Niños and La Niñas impact weather patterns globally. As a number of recent papers have argued, the dominance of La Niña events in recent years is responsible for part of the cessation in global surface warming outside of the Arctic, so by inference, those papers are also stating that a string of strong El Niño events were responsible for part of the long-term warming from the mid-1970s to the turn of the century. There’s nothing new about that; for years we’ve been discussing the naturally occurring, sunlight-fueled processes that drive El Niño events and cause long-term warming of global surface temperatures. If this subject is new to you, see the link at the end of this post for an overview.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) provides the following summary of their ENSO forecasts in their January 30, 2014 El Niño/La Niña Update:
- ENSO conditions are currently neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña);
- As of mid-January 2014, except for a small possibility for weak and brief La Niña development during the next couple of months, outlooks indicate likely continuation of neutral conditions into the second quarter of 2014;
- Current forecasts indicate approximately equal chances for neutral conditions or the development of a weak El Niño during the third quarter of 2014, reflecting increased chances for development of a weak El Niño.
It appears no one is suggesting that a full-fledged La Niña will form for the 2014/15 season. As of the week centered on February 5th, the sea surface temperature anomalies of the NINO3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific indicated that the tropical Pacific was experiencing La Niña conditions, though not an “official” La Niña. See the monthly sea surface temperature update for January 2014.
What’s your prediction? Please provide links to the variables you monitor. Here’s what I predict.
I predict, if we see El Niño conditions, global warming enthusiasts will cheer, because they have forecast, in turn, that record high global temperatures will accompany the next El Niño. And I predict, if we see La Niña or ENSO-neutral conditions, skeptics will cheer, because global surface temperatures should continue to remain flat. (Other than that, I don’t make predictions.)
The ENSO wrap-up from Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) for February 14, 2014 provides a similar loose forecast. (For those who live north of the equator, keep in mind the BOM is discussing austral seasons.)
And NOAA’s CPC has a similar mix of possible scenarios in their Weekly ENSO Update dated February 10, 2014—though the NCEP’s models are forecasting El Niño conditions starting in April-June 2014. See page 27.
The WMO briefly mentions the problems with ENSO predictions during this part of the year. They write:
It must be noted that model outlooks that span March-May period tend to have particularly lower skill than those made at other times of year. Hence some caution should be exercised when using long range outlooks made at this time for the middle of the year and beyond.
ENSO predictions at this time of year are hampered by a problem called the Spring Prediction Barrier. See the discussion at the IRI website here. But a series of new papers claim to have overcome that hurdle.
The recently published Ludescher et al (2014) Very Early Warning of Next El Niño (paywalled) are predicting El Niño conditions by late 2014. The abstract reads:
The most important driver of climate variability is the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which can trigger disasters in various parts of the globe. Despite its importance, conventional forecasting is still limited to 6 mo ahead. Recently, we developed an approach based on network analysis, which allows projection of an El Niño event about 1 y ahead. Here we show that our method correctly predicted the absence of El Niño events in 2012 and 2013 and now announce that our approach indicated (in September 2013 already) the return of El Niño in late 2014 with a 3-in-4 likelihood. We also discuss the relevance of the next El Niño to the question of global warming and the present hiatus in the global mean surface temperature.
Global warming enthusiasts have already started cheering for an El Niño. See the Michael Slezak article in NewScientist titled El Niño may make 2014 the hottest year on record. And Andrew Freedman of ClimateCentral begins his post Study Sounds ‘El Niño Alarm’ For Late This Year:
A new study shows that there is at least a 76 percent likelihood that an El Niño event will occur later this year, potentially reshaping global weather patterns for a year or more and raising the odds that 2015 will set a record for the warmest year since instrument records began in the late 19th century.
Ludescher et al (2014) appears to be based on Ludescher et al (2013) Improved El Niño forecasting by cooperativity detection (paywalled). We discussed the earlier Ludescher et al paper in the July 2013 post El Niño in the News. I closed that post with:
DID GLOBAL WARMING CAUSE THE EL NIÑOS OR DID EL NIÑOS CAUSE GLOBAL WARMING?
Numerous datasets indicate that El Niño events are fueled naturally. Additionally, satellite-era sea surface temperature records indicate that El Niño events are responsible for the warming of sea surface temperatures over the past 31 years, not vice versa as Li et al (2013) have suggested. If this topic is new to you, refer to my illustrated essay “The Manmade Global Warming Challenge” [42MB].
Bob:
As far as I am aware no-one has made any attempt to try and get a correlation between the Internal Tide (the most important vertical ocean mixing force we have) in the Pacific, ENSO and long term Lunar cycles.
http://www.whoi.edu/science/PO/turbulence/Research/images/internal_tides-LG.jpg
Of course there may well be no correlation at all. But if you can’t find a study that’s looked then how can you say it doesn’t exist?
Pippen, I think that it was previous strong La Nina’s that cause subsequent global warming when the trade winds shove all that previously deeply sun-warmed water around and cloudless days allows the sun to deeply warm the equatorial waters some more. If you then have a series of La Nina’s after an especially strong one, you would have a series of increasing steps up in temperature measured on land. When things return to El Nado/ La Nada territory, land temps will flatten and eventually fall, possibly faster than they rose.
El Niño and especially long ones, simply allows water to layer itself. Good thing because that warm water can be released, plus disallow the Sun to warm the tropical ocean much at all. Too many clouds.
@ur momisugly Bob T., Thanks Just learning and I will start there.
Bob Tisdale: Numerous datasets indicate that El Niño events are fueled naturally. Additionally, satellite-era sea surface temperature records indicate that El Niño events are responsible for the warming of sea surface temperatures over the past 31 years, not vice versa
If it be true that “El Niño events are fueled naturally”, what is the “fuel”? If the fuel is the heat in the climate system, and if it is true that extra CO2 in the atmosphere results in extra heat in the climate system (“extra” meaning more than would be there without the CO2), then the extra CO2 is providing more fuel for the El Niño events. that makes the ENSO a cog or part of the mechanism by which CO2 warms the climate. What causes what can’t yet be determined, and a full causal analysis isn’t available.
Greg says: I know it’s not your own idea, there is a lot of discussion of El Nino being some kind of driver. I’ve said serveral times in the past that I think it’s common cause not , direct causation.
jlurtz: The El Niño/ La Nina events are controlled by the heat input and the amount of evaporation cooling. In addition, some of the cold upwelling in the Pacific is controlled by the amount of evaporation into the Hadley Cells.
Bob Tisdale: Also, the weather-related impacts of ENSO have been studied for decades. For an introduction, see the NOAA webpage here:
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/impacts.html
Sure, but what events “impact” ENSO?
The climate system is a high dimensional, non-linear dissipative system with non-constant input. Even simple non-linear dissipative systems with homogeneous 2-D surfaces and constant input have extremely complicated and non-intuitive behaviors, with traveling waves, fluctuating nearly standing waves, stationary and cyclonic waves, and more. A brief introduction stimulated by considerations of heat transfer is presented in the last chapters of “Modern Thermodynamics: From Heat Engines to Dissipative Structures” by Dilip Kondepudi and Ilya Prigogine. The coupling of the ENSO with the climate, and the appearance of identifiable “events” (El Niño/ La Nina) are incompletely known, with large gaps not small unknown details. With as many gaps in understanding as there are, and with many possibilities hardly explored at all, it is not possible to rule out the possibility that accumulated heat resulting from accumulated CO2 has been driving ENSO. All you can say with confidence is that some increases in measured heat come after El Niño. As everyone who ever quoted “post hoc, ergo propter hoc” ironically as a warning knows, simple time ordering is not sufficient to establish causation.
A very good overview of what is known about ENSO, with a theoretical analysis and integration, is provided by Henk Dijkstra in his book “Nonlinear Climate Dynamics”, Cambridge University Press, 2013, . On p. 168 one can read: “There is no clear-cut distinction between El Niños, La Ninas, and normal periods; rather, the system exhibits continuous fluctuations of varying strengths and durations with an average period of about 4 years (blue curve in Fib 8.2b.)” I think this book is a good companion to Bob Tisdale’s admirable “Who Turned on the Heat”.
Last El Nino of any note was fall 2009 into winter 2010.
At present watching the how this year’s BOM subsea is developing:-
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/oceanography/wrap_ocean_analysis.pl?id=IDYOC007&year=2014&month=02
against how 2009 moved:-
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/oceanography/wrap_ocean_analysis.pl?id=IDYOC007&year=2009&month=02
Lots of mixed signals at present, OLR, SOI, etc, time will tell.
Just The Facts says: “Based on your research, do you think we currently have any skill in forecasting ENSO? Is it even worth posting a WUWT ENSO Forecast Reference Page? If so, can you provide a warming label I can put at the top highlighting the limitations in our current forecasting capabilities?”
The problem with the models is that they really only become useful after the El Niño or La Niña event has started. Then, the models do a reasonably good job of predicting how they will develop.
A rewording of the WMO’s statement from the post might be useful for a warning. They wrote: “It must be noted that model outlooks that span March-May period tend to have particularly lower skill than those made at other times of year. Hence some caution should be exercised when using long range outlooks made at this time for the middle of the year and beyond.”
So, for the warning:
Model predictions of ENSO made before March-May have been shown to have very low skill. The low skill is caused by the Spring Prediction Barrier, which is discussed in the IRI webpage here:
http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/background/prediction.html#barrier
PS: Thanks for putting together all of those predictions.
RichardLH says: “Has anyone ever done a predictions/history for the NINO 3.4 SST Anomalies Forecast analysis?”
I recall seeing one, but I have no idea when or where I saw it.
Matthew R Marler says: “If it be true that “El Niño events are fueled naturally”, what is the “fuel”?”
ENSO basics:
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2014/01/10/an-illustrated-introduction-to-the-basic-processes-that-drive-el-nino-and-la-nina-events/
El Nino events are fueled by warm water created during La Nina events. The warm water is created during La Nina events by an increase in downward shortwave radiation, which is associated with a reduction of cloud cover, which, in turn, is associated with the stronger trade winds and less convection due to the cooler sea surface temperatures.
RichardLH says: February 15, 2014 at 12:02 pm
National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – Climate Prediction Center – Click the pic to view at source – Click the pic to view at source[/caption]
National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – Climate Prediction Center – Click the pic to view at source – Click the pic to view at source[/caption]
National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – Climate Prediction Center – Click the pic to view at source – Click the pic to view at source[/caption]
National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – Climate Prediction Center – Click the pic to view at source – Click the pic to view at source[/caption]
Has anyone ever done a predictions/history for the NINO 3.4 SST Anomalies Forecast analysis?
Here is NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center ICFS SST Hindcast Skill for Nino 3.4. This January Monthly;
[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="632"]
January Seasonal;
[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="632"]
February Monthly;
[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="632"]
February Seasonal:
[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="632"]
They are poor out past few months.
Bob Tisdale says:
February 15, 2014 at 12:55 pm
“RichardLH says: “Has anyone ever done a predictions/history for the NINO 3.4 SST Anomalies Forecast analysis?”
I recall seeing one, but I have no idea when or where I saw it.”
Do you know where (or if) it is possible to pick up previous forecasts?
My prediction, for what its worth, is that if it is a 2014 El Nino, ‘settled consensus science’ will claim carbon(sic) is to blame.
If it is a 2014 La Nina, ‘settled consensus science’ will claim it is the ‘warmest’ La Nina ever, there-by proving carbon(sic) is to blame.
https://skepticalscience.com/was-2012-hottest-la-nina-on-record.html
There is nothing carbon(sic) can’t do.
Mark McGuire says:
February 15, 2014 at 1:09 pm
“There is nothing carbon(sic) can’t do.”
Including drain my bank account. (But for some it has the opposite effect).
Just The Facts says:
February 15, 2014 at 1:04 pm
“Here is NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center ICFS SST Hindcast Skill for Nino 3.4. This January Monthly;”
Thanks.
“They are poor out past few months.”
I am not surprised. I find that when I look at them they seem to predict a leap to either high or low, sometimes as short as ‘tomorrow’!
Matthew think about it. The sun would be the fuel, and the clouds would be the gate. If clouds are present the gate is partially closed to varying degrees (El Niño). That means less sun available to be kicked back out of the oceans to be re-radiated as long wave. On the other hand, when clouds are gone and the gate wide open (La Nina) the air is dry. Any amount kicked back out would be low and in the presence of low water vapor content there would be less reradiated. CO 2 effects just cannot warm the oceans to a higher measurable amount.
Bob Tisdale: El Nino events are fueled by warm water created during La Nina events. The warm water is created during La Nina events by an increase in downward shortwave radiation, which is associated with a reduction of cloud cover, which, in turn, is associated with the stronger trade winds and less convection due to the cooler sea surface temperatures.
So if an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration produces an increase in downward shortwave radiation, does that not create more fuel, e.g. warmer water?
I have conjectured on other occasions that increased downwelling IR mostly causes an increase in vaporization, hence perhaps an increase in cloud cover on cloudy days, especially earlier in the day. I don’t think the evidence exists to form an opinion one way or another, but the possibility that increased El Nino events have been caused by increased CO2 can be ruled out.
Thank you again for another good post.
I don’t have a prediction of my own. If an El Nino develops in late 2014, I sure hope that it brings rain. I live in California, and we have the driest conditions that have occurred for a long, long time.
Just The Facts says:
February 15, 2014 at 1:04 pm
That set of graphs does kinda beg the question though.
My memory of the occasional look I have taken at this graph
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/climatic-phenomena-pages/enso/
is that the next days figures almost never seem to follow the dotted line. I have not been methodical enough to track it though. I suppose that collecting a image a day and turning it into a animated gif might prove interesting. 🙂
Just The Facts says:
February 15, 2014 at 1:04 pm
Sorry – this graph
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif
Pamela Gray: Matthew think about it. The sun would be the fuel, and the clouds would be the gate. If clouds are present the gate is partially closed to varying degrees (El Niño). That means less sun available to be kicked back out of the oceans to be re-radiated as long wave. On the other hand, when clouds are gone and the gate wide open (La Nina) the air is dry. Any amount kicked back out would be low and in the presence of low water vapor content there would be less reradiated. CO 2 effects just cannot warm the oceans to a higher measurable amount.
see mine at February 15, 2014 at 1:29 pm
You take one side in a debate that I have been having. I think present evidence is inconclusive.
Also, my question is not: What does CO2 do? My question is: What are the effects of more CO2, starting with what we had in 1950; slight variation, put the start date at 1970; or for another variation, starting now? I don’t think the three variations have the same answer.
What is the difference between statistical models (use of analogue years) and climate models (use of dynamical calculations) in terms of prediction ability?
Matthew co2 can only produce long wave re-radiation which has very little power to penetrate beyond mm depth into the ocean skin and is likely evaporated off almost immediately, therefor cannot warm the surface to a depth that can increase El Niño SST measures.
Pamela Gray says:
February 15, 2014 at 1:40 pm
“What is the difference between statistical models (use of analogue years) and climate models (use of dynamical calculations) in terms of prediction ability?”
One works from the large down, the other the small up? (Actually a fairly course graduation of the small – a worst possible option IMHO).
Richard I know how they work. I was wondering what the data showed in terms of ability.
Bob Tisdale says: February 15, 2014 at 12:51 pm
So, for the warning:
Model predictions of ENSO made before March-May have been shown to have very low skill. The low skill is caused by the Spring Prediction Barrier, which is discussed in the IRI webpage here:
http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/background/prediction.html#barrier
Thank you. Here’s the new WUWT ENSO Forecast reference page:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/climatic-phenomena-pages/enso/enso-forecast-page/
Please let me know if you have any suggested additions or improvements. Additionally, do you think we should have any forecasts on the main ENSO reference page (Currently we only have Nino 3.4 from CFS2);
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/climatic-phenomena-pages/enso/
if so, which ones? I can add the Warning there as well.
The other issue is that all El Ninos are accompanied by a drop in temperatures in the western Pacific depths like in December 1997 and December 2009 here.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/mnth_gif/xz/mnth.anom.xz.temp.0n.1997.12.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/mnth_gif/xz/mnth.anom.xz.temp.0n.2009.12.gif
The data is very consistent with this over time (with the coolest part of this cycle lagging a month or so behind the ENSO).
http://s24.postimg.org/47l0b8xp1/ENSO_WPac_Temps.png
I think we are going to need to see cold water infiltrating downward at 120E-135E before any type of El Nino will develop. There is only warm water there right now so it hard to see where the source would come from.
Pamela Gray says:
February 15, 2014 at 2:05 pm
“Richard I know how they work. I was wondering what the data showed in terms of ability.”
For PDO
http://i29.photobucket.com/albums/c274/richardlinsleyhood/PDOLowpass_zpsa9b3df25.png
you tell me.