More Year-End Results
The UKMO-Hadley Centre presented its annual HADCRUT4 data a few days ago. The HADCRUT4 annual global land+ocean surface temperature anomalies for 2013 ranked 8th. That’s not much of a showing in a world where manmade greenhouse gases are assumed to be the control knob that regulates global surface temperatures.
Figure 1 presents a comparison of GISS LOTI, NCDC and HADCRUT4 annual global land+ocean surface temperature anomalies for the period of 1979 to 2013. Because all three suppliers use different base years, I’ve shifted them to 1981 to 2010 (base years recommended by the WMO) for the comparison. The halt in global warming is becoming more evident in the annual data. But the cessation of surface warming stands out like a sore thumb in the comparison of the monthly data, Figure 2.
Figure 1
# # # # # # # #
Figure 2
Figure 3 presents the monthly HADCRUT4 data from January 1979 through December 2013 with its standard base years of 1961 to 1990. The value for December was approximately +0.49 deg C, which is a drop of about -0.1 deg C since November.
Figure 3
For further information about the three datasets, refer to the most recent monthly update.
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In my 25 years experience of examining data trends, I’d say it’s beyond leveled off and will start heading back down (on average). Individual spikes however will continue to tantalize the fanatics with statements like ” seventh warmest since xx”, “ninth warmest for three consecutive periods”, “eleventh warmest for the third time since it was that fourth warmest before the eighteenth coolest point in the fifteenth warmest decade since the second minimum recorded and adjusted value”. Et cetera, et cetera.
I would believe the data if it was comparisons of raw data from stations that are all well away from industrial developments. Anything less is compromised by local heat pollution and of course the guesswork adjustment of the the monitors who often have a stake in finding evidence of global warming
AP,
I was about to say the same thing you did………….but you said it best!
me says: @ur momisugly January 25, 2014 at 1:57 am
Can we believe this data?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
There has been all sorts of funny business. The station drop out problem:
http://diggingintheclay.files.wordpress.com/2010/04/canadadt.png
Text to go with the graph http://diggingintheclay.wordpress.com/2010/01/21/the-station-drop-out-problem/
(There are several essays on the subject at Digging in the Clay.)
E.M. Smith also addressed the problem
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/02/15/thermometer-zombie-walk/
Steven Goddard on Adjustments:
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/data-tampering-at-ushcngiss/
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2012/12/01/visualizing-how-wildly-corrupt-noaa-and-giss-are/
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/01/18/ushcn-v2-tobs-adjustment-is-double-what-it-is-supposed-to-be/
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/03/29/hadcrut-warming-things-up/
US temperatures:
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/01/19/just-hit-the-noaa-motherlode/
And one of Steven’s best:
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/01/23/shocking-polar-vortex-from-20000-years-ago/
Joe Bastardi
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/375808179914821632/photo/1
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/01/22/shock-news-nasa-surface-temperatures-dont-match-more-accurate-satellite-data/
WUWT different temperature sets:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/global-weather-climate/global-temperature/
NOAA says 2013 was 4th hottest ever.. but the record years are so close to each other now (due to lack of warming) that by my calculation the 10 years ending in 2013 were only 0.1 deg warmer than the previous ten, which is the smallest increase since the 80’s. I hope to get this up on a chart soon.
You can do it yourself. This shows the trends since 1979.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/from:1979/to:2014/offset:0.28/mean:12/plot/uah/from:1979/to:2014/trend/offset:0.28/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1979/to:2014/mean:12/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1979/to:2014/trend
Note that the UAH trend is 0.03 degrees per decade (0.3 degrees per century) lower than the HADCRUT4 trend. However, this difference appears to be related to observations in the first decade of the satellite era. The trends since 1990 are
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/from:1990/to:2014/offset:0.28/mean:12/plot/uah/from:1990/to:2014/trend/offset:0.28/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1990/to:2014/mean:12/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1990/to:2014/trend
Since 1990 the UAH has been warming slightly faster than the HADCRUT4.
Observation sure is deviant from the CO2 narrative. If CO2 is a small factor, what are the real climate forcing factors? Sun w/ cycle 24 being lowest in 200 years ,, or ,,the lowering earth magnetism ,, or ,, PDO in a cold phase ,, or ,, cosmic rays making more cloud formation ,, or ,, volcanism ,, or ,, Milankovitch cycles. Should ‘or’ be changed to ‘and’? Then, how many of these things need to align in a cold phase of their cycles in order to end an interglacial period? And if anyone has an answer that is certain, will you let rest of us know of any plans on moving to Florida?!
Using the Central England Temperature (hadCET) as an example of the climate, since 1659 the temperature (monthly mean) has risen from 8,83 Deg C to 9.56 Deg C in 2013. That’s a massive rise of 0.73 Deg C in 354 years. Or 0.02 Deg C/decade. Which of course is well outside the error range (+/-1.0 Deg C) for temperature recording calibration. Scary isn’t it? /sarc.
Also the the temperature trend had just celebrated it’s 21st birthday. Yes it has been a downward trend since 1992. Just to let the politicians and MSM in the UK, I’ll JUST SHOUT THAT AGAIN 21YEARS DOWNWARD TREND.
Just to add my 2 cents worth.
It looks to me that there is a steady underlying warming trend which is amplified by natural variability during some periods and attenuated during others (bear in mind 1910-1940 and 1945-1975). The warming looks to be consistent with a climate sensitivity of around 1 degree per 2xCO2, i.e. less than IPCC estimates but real nonetheless.
There is no evidence for significant cooling.
Personally, the world started in 1979. The beginning of the era of satellite temperature data.
It’s the only true “raw” data available. Every other data-set has had the past temperatures “adjusted” . Most always adjusted to a lower temperature.
RSS satellite data is fraud free and…
tastes GREAT!!
Bob, an interesting chart to plot would be the annual change in global temperature anomaly. This year-on-year change chart would show that at least in the 2000s, the year-on-year reductions are outpacing the year-on-year increases. A clearer trend line is revealed.
Such a chart would be a good counter to IPOCC’s decadal charts, which make the Noughties look as though they were in a warming trend although that was only due to the step change after 1998.
Anthony: I urge you to include his “latest ten year” chart in your reference pages, and to invite joshuah to submit updated charts annually.
John Finn,
“There is no evidence for significant cooling.”
Who said anything about ‘significant cooling.”?
Personally, the world started in 1979. The beginning of the era of satellite temperature data.
It’s the only true “raw” data available. Every other data-set has had the past temperatures “adjusted” . Most always adjusted to a lower temperature.
RSS satellite data is fudge free and…
tastes GREAT!!
joshuah says: @ur momisugly January 25, 2014 at 5:08 am
NOAA says 2013 was 4th hottest ever.. but the record years are so close to each other now (due to lack of warming) that by my calculation the 10 years ending in 2013 were only 0.1 deg warmer than the previous ten, which is the smallest increase since the 80′s. I hope to get this up on a chart soon.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Try plotting the rate of change from one year to the next.
http://motls.blogspot.com/2010/07/in-defense-of-milankovitch-by-gerard.html
John Finn
“There is no evidence for significant cooling.”
Wrong. It has not warmed for 17 years, not merely less than IPCC estimates, drastically below their estimates which have been factually proven wrong. The IPCC’s positive feedback hypothesis is debunked via the lack of tropospheric hotspot, the satellite-read increase of outgoing long wave radiation with increased surface warming and global temperatures.
As there was a warming trend since the Maunder Minimum 300 years ago, then a stalling of that warming trend is actually a cooling as it’s statistically greater than the sub-decadal stochastic noise.
Time will tell if it is the beginning of a major long term cooling trend which is likely given long term Holocene cycles, we are in fact, looking at the Holocene climate cycles likely at the peak of a holocene optimum ready to descend into cooling, but regardless the stall is irrefutably a cooling relative to the warming trend.
Kev-in-Uk says:
January 25, 2014 at 4:14 am
__________________
Adam used an invisible sarc tag. Most who are on their 2nd cup of coffee got it.
Bob, did you see my note at http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/23/also-rans-ncdc-and-giss-global-surface-temperatures-finish-4th-and-7th-for-2013/#comment-1547075 ? “7th place? (tied for 7th, 8th, and 9th) – 4th place? (tied for 4th and 5th)” So HADCRUT4 in 8th matches GISS.
joshuah says:
January 25, 2014 at 5:08 am
There are tables, see http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/23/newsbytes-nasa-noaa-confirm-global-temperature-standstill-continues/ and my link in that other comment.
“The warming looks to be consistent with a climate sensitivity of around 1 degree per 2xCO2, i.e. less than IPCC estimates but real nonetheless.”
How does the chart show a 1 degree per 2xCO2?
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/co2/sio-keel-flask/maunaloa_c.dat
Is the ‘official’ temperature trust worthy?
Station dropout vs temperature:
http://diggingintheclay.files.wordpress.com/2010/04/canadadt.png
Is the ‘official’ temperature trust worthy?
Hansen ‘Adjusts’ past temperature records. Comparison of three of his graphs from different years.
http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/graphs/giss/hansen-giss-1940-1980.gif
Is the ‘official’ temperature trust worthy?
Raw data minus official HadCRUT4 temperature showing the adjustments.
http://i39.tinypic.com/1118rnl.png
An alternative visualisation of GISS data trends by Nate Drake using a Savitzky-Golay 15 year filter.
Source http://snag.gy/hFsMF.jpg
Original © Nate Drake, enhancement © RLH
“Filter on NON-detrended GISS LOTI data: …I ran a 5 pass-multipass with second order polynomials on 15year data windows as per the Savitzky–Golay method.” Nate Drake
http://i879.photobucket.com/albums/ab357/NarwhaleNate/GISS_LOTI_S-G_Filternot-detrended_zps4a8d8e39.jpg
This shows ‘the pause’ or ‘global-warming hiatus’ rather well in GISS. Full credit to Nate Drake for providing such a useful and helpful image and apologies to him from me in having to enhance the dots and line to make them more visible.
I am trying to get him to do the full set, HadCrut4, HadSST3, AMO and PDO.
Perhaps we should all join in and ask for UAH and RSS too.
http://www.nature.com/news/climate-change-the-case-of-the-missing-heat-1.14525
Just helping out ‘the cause’ 🙂
Someone mentioned it is time for HadCRUT5. I guess since 4 is lagging, they will need to find more adjustments to heat up the average temperatures.
If there were no satellite temperature readings there would be no temperature standstill. 😉 Last year would have been the hottest evaaaaaaah.