Image Credit: NSIDC
WUWT Regular “Just The Facts”
As you can see from the Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent With Anomaly map above, there are currently two large fingers of anomalous Sea Ice protruding out in the Weddell Sea. This is the same Weddell Sea that in 2012 it was claimed that;
“Warm ocean currents are projected to melt the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf in the Weddell Sea area of Antarctica opening instabilities in the West Antarctic Ice sheet (WAIS) which will impact global sea level rise. Climate change is waking up the sleeping giant of Antarctica.
Significant scientific research has been published in recent weeks on the impact of global warming on changing wind patterns and southern ocean currents and the flow-on impact on Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers. The most recent studies reveal the potential instability of the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf in the Weddell Sea area. But the real questions to be asked concern the long term stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) and how rapidly it could collapse raising global sea levels by up to 6 metres.” Climate Citizen
So there are no apparent signs of the “warm ocean currents” that “are projected to melt the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf in the Weddell Sea area of Antarctica opening instabilities in the West Antarctic Ice sheet”. If fact those fingers still look reasonably concentrated;
and Antarctic Sea Ice Extent – 15% or Greater has remained above two Standard Deviations of the 1981 – 2010 average for the entire melt season:
Additionally, Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice Area Anomaly has been above the 1979 – 2008 Average for the last two years:
Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice Area Anomaly is in the midst of its third large spike since 2007;
and there is a clear trend towards larger Southern Sea Ice Area Minimums:
The result is Global Sea Ice Area had its highest maximum since 2006 and remained stubbornly average for the entirety of 2013:
However, in terms of the large fingers of Sea Ice protruding into the Weddell Sea;
I think they may be a sign from Antarctica telling us that we’ve beat global warming, or at least that the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf in the Weddell Sea is safe from collapse for another year… What do you think?
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Unmentionable says: @ur momisugly January 19, 2014 at 11:37 pm
“People think computers will keep them from making mistakes. They’re wrong. With computers you make mistakes faster.” – Adam Osborne
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
To err is human, it take a computer to really foul things up.
NOTE:Comment cleaned-up for a family viewing audience
richardscourtney,
Note Leo Geiger keeps droning on about
And completely ignores all the facts I have brought up that refutes his nonsense.
comment 1
comment 2
and
comment 3
Perhaps Mr Geiger should try swiming in the ‘Warm’ Antarctic Circumpolar Current or maybe he just does not understand that the word Circumpolar.
Again from WIKI:
Does that make it clear? THERE IS NO WARM WATER! This is NOT the ARCTIC. There is NO GULF STREAM bring warm equatorial water to the south pole.
(please excuse spelling, I can not see right now due to flashes from a migraine)
Jimbo says
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/19/antarctica-has-sea-ice-rabbit-ears-a-v-for-victory-or-maybe-its-a-peace-sign/#comment-1541537
Henry says
sorry for the late reply
clearly the results for Alaska apply to all 60-70 [latitude], inland (no streams to warm up)
Even Nasa admits that Antarctica is cooling down, e.g.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/22/nasa-announces-new-record-growth-of-antarctic-sea-ice-extent/#more-96133
so, as expected, global cooling
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1987/to:2014/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2002/to:2014/trend/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1987/to:2014/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:2002/to:2014/trend/plot/rss/from:1987/to:2014/plot/rss/from:2002/to:2014/trend/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1987/to:2014/plot/hadsst2gl/from:2002/to:2014/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1987/to:2002/trend/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1987/to:2002/trend/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1987/to:2002/trend/plot/rss/from:1987/to:2002/trend
starts from the top down, increasing the temp. differential between the equator and the poles.
The arctic still profits from the warmer gulf stream, from the previous warming period, but it is only a matter of time.
so, what we have happening is exactly as I predicted
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/04/29/the-climate-is-changing/
I saw some were joking about it, (my comment, at,
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/19/antarctica-has-sea-ice-rabbit-ears-a-v-for-victory-or-maybe-its-a-peace-sign/#comment-1541466),
which is not such a good idea.
Climate change due to natural reasons is real and worrying. The current droughts in California and Australia only prove my point.
WHAT MUST WE DO?
We urgently need to develop and encourage more agriculture at lower latitudes, like in Africa and/or South America. This is where we can expect to find warmth and more rain during a global cooling period.
We need to warn the farmers living at the higher latitudes (>40) who already suffered poor crops due to the cold and/ or due to the droughts that things are not going to get better there for the next few decades. It will only get worse as time goes by.
We also have to provide more protection against more precipitation at certain places of lower latitudes (FLOODS!), <[30] latitude, especially around the equator.
(Brazil, Indonesia, Philipines, Kenya, etc)
Ocean temperatures around Antarctica are below average.
http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-140119.gif
This suggest the waters are too cool for glacier ice melt near the surface and therefore conditions for greater sea ice are ideal.
“Ocean waters melting the undersides of Antarctic ice shelves are responsible for most of the continent’s ice shelf mass loss, a new study by NASA and university researchers has found.”
This is a natural scenario that happens all the time and there is nothing distinguishable between natural and unnatural. Ice shelves are always moving towards warmer water relative so they melt and this is caused by glacier mass increasing and forcing the ice towards warmer oceans. if the glaciers were retreating the glacier would just collapse and fall with no advancement towards the coasts. We know surface temperatures are too cold here so that is ruled out. (-10 c to -15 c peak summer)
If so called warmer currents are melting the ice with no observations around Antarctica suggesting this, then why have they been apparently retreating for decades? This shows that is has nothing to do with temperature changes in the area and backs up that advancing glacier ice moving to the coasts and relative warmer oceans is natural process that always occurs and cant be distinguished from abnormal. The claim that its melting the bottom of the glacier ice any different from usual makes no sense when the surface is colder than usual. With this logic I can claim the glacier will slow down melting when the temperatures near the surface are above normal.
Just to clarify there is NO warm water near Antarctica even in peak summer.
http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst-140119.gif
I will repeat part of my previous post. See this link. It’s just an 850 temp anomoly map, from the GFS Ensembles going out 2 weeks of the Southern Hemisphere. Scroll down to see the forecast that goes out in 24 hour increments.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850anom_sh_alltimes.html
I present this particlular model forecast only because its one that I use daily and can comment on the unusual fact that a big blue blob of cold anomolies has been in the vicinity of the South Pole/Arctic consistently for quite awhile/months.
A persistent cold anomoly, possibly similar was situated in the vicinty of the North Pole and caused a cold Summer there in 2013, Note the big rebound in sea ice.
I have only recently been watching the weather at high latitudes at both ends of the earth closely, so can’t say how strange this is……..however, it must be fairly odd as evidenced by the complete reversal of temps at the Arctic from recent warmth to near record cold last Summer. of 2013
This has only been during the most recent Summer’s when solar radiation is maximized and shines around the clock at the highest latitudes.
It is either unrelated to solar forcing and being caused by something else entirely that just happened to occur at the same time that regional solar forcing was maximized(which happens a great deal with our weather) or there is a solar connection.
Would appreciate any thoughts/comments
South Pole/Arctic
That should be Antarctic. If you can, please fix it. Thanks
[But where, which word in which sentence? Mod]
Gail Combs:
At January 20, 2014 at 9:09 am you ask me to note that
I do note it, and it is important. But onlookers may not share your knowledge so may fail to see how stupid his assertions are.
I hope my contributions have exposed – for all to see – his lack of logic and his silly arguments together with the ridiculous nature of the papers he cites.
Richard
HenryP says: @ur momisugly January 20, 2014 at 9:25 am
China, who does not believe the CAGW B. S. is doing exactly as you suggest. They are aggressively developing agriculture in Africa and South America …the case since the Mao era, self-sufficiency in staple foods is a primary objective of the Chinese Communist Party. China’s National Medium-Term Priority Framework promotes 95 percent self-sufficiency in grain (corn, wheat, and rice, specifically) in the coming decade.
Mean while idiots like Clinton and Al Gore continue to pursue their dreams of Global Governance and INTERDEPENDENCE completely blind to the fact the Chinese are laughing up their sleeves and pursuing INDEPENDENCE using the technology Clinton gave them on a gold platter.
https://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/copeland.htm
http://www.artistmarket.com/writers/piraino/clintonchina.htm
richardscourtney says: @ur momisugly January 20, 2014 at 10:21 am
…I hope my contributions have exposed – for all to see…
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
You are a bit more blunt than I am. But then I like to play with the trolls, sort of like a cat with a mouse.
I present this particlular model forecast only because its one that I use daily and can comment on the unusual fact that a big blue blob of cold anomolies has been in the vicinity of the South Pole/Arctic consistently for quite awhile/months.
I apologize for not being more clear: South Pole/Arctic should be South Pole/”Antarctic”.
I also see “particular” misspelled and “anomalies” misspelled in just that sentence.
Unfortunately, these sort of things are too common in my posts and I should have probably just let it go. The real problem is that I have severe double vision from an autoimmune disorder. Maybe a surgery can correct this. The prisms in both lenses and a Fresnel prism on my left lens work great for distance and on a computer screen viewing weather maps and such.
However, my eyes/brain are not completely in sync looking at words on the computer screen as I type.. This causes me to not actually see much of what I type as I type it. I’ll just try to do a better job looking everything over closely before sending it……………………..thanks!
Mike
Mike Maguire says:
“I present this particlular model forecast only because its one that I use daily and can comment on the unusual fact that a big blue blob of cold anomolies has been in the vicinity of the South Pole/Arctic consistently for quite awhile/months.”
GISS, ECM, UKMO and JMA for example are very poor for picking even trends 2 weeks away. This is for regions where data is easy to get hold of. Areas where there is considerably less data like around the poles, the success is even worse. Although the Arctic is far more variable than Antarctica so would be little more assuring, The bottom line is any trends 1 to 2 weeks maybe credible, but 2 weeks or more take with a pinch of salt.
We are living in a crazy time indeed.
Warmists are obsessed with the not-melting Antarctica. It’s as if they are willing it with every fibre of their being to melt catastrophically. Why can’t they just give up until something really out of the ordinary shows up – like record extents…….ah, forget that last bit. 😉
So let me get this straight. Some guy named Leo commented that anthropogenically warmed ocean currents will eventually melt away the ice bridges and fast-ice around Antarctica. My only conclusion I can think of is that he must think Antarctica and its regular circumpolar current is somehow similar to the Arctic Circle and its many curly cued in and out, warm and cold currents? Is there no bottom limit to watermelon brains?
ROTFLMAO!!!!!!
Pamela Gray says: @ur momisugly January 20, 2014 at 5:05 pm
So let me get this straight….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
You’ve got it correct Pam. He was completely impervious to any and all data. It was quite amazing.
I wonder if he is a graduate of Al Gore’s Climate Reality
brainwashingtraining.Matt G says:
January 20, 2014 at 2:46 pm
Mike Maguire says:
GISS, ECM, UKMO and JMA for example are very poor for picking even trends 2 weeks away. // The bottom line is any trends 1 to 2 weeks maybe credible, but 2 weeks or more take with a pinch of salt.
___
If I follow him, he’s not projecting a trend forward, but asking for comment RE the observed anomalous coolness in the 850 mb linked over the recent two months this summer, and last.
Homo-Misanthropithecus-Robustus
A lower intellectual branch of Homo Sapiens Sapiens that disappeared up a blind-alley when they missed the forest for the trees. This most withered of a branches is believed to still persist in the wild due to numerous recordings of their distinctive characteristic vocalisations which are considered to verge on incomprehensible gibberish. Although once extraordinarily abundant and widely-ranging, on all continents, except Antarctica, where they were unable to secure a foothold, they’re now formally listed as endangered, and great efforts have been undertaken to provide copious UN protection programs. Send money! Help save and protect our precious global heritage.
Leo Geiger says: January 20, 2014 at 6:20 am
I would expect to see *no simple relationship* between sea ice extent and melting ice shelves. Surface conditions could make a good year for sea ice while subsurface changes could weaken ice shelves in the same area, or the other way around too. Sea ice extent is a lousy proxy for ice shelf dynamics.
Ok, then so show us direct measurements of the “warm ocean currents” you claim…
You have an interesting approach to deciding what papers are using valid methods:
Who said they were using valid methods? I was using your own ammunition against you. My point of view is that our understanding of Earth’s climate system is rudimentary at best, and our historical record is laughable brief, thus any projections about Earth’s climate system are educated guesses at best.
At this point it sounds like you will reject any information derived from direct ice shelf measurements if it implies mass loss (but not if it doesn’t!), and won’t even accept there is such thing as warmer Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) unless I start providing links, so I’m not sure what else I can say.
What you could say is, I have limited understanding about Earth’s climate system and am not sure what the future will bring. I am however learning as much as I can, and at some point in the future hopefully we will have some predictive capacity. Until then, I will simply report on what we find and make no blind assumptions about what the future may hold. Is that too much to ask?
Unmentionable,
You are correct. I am only looking at a model that goes out 2 weeks. For the last 2 months, every day, it has been showing an anomalously cold blob in the Antarctic.
During a similar time frame seasonally for the Arctic, (just subtract 6 months) and you had close to the equivalent solar position for the Northern Hemisphere.
The Arctic had one of its coldest Summer’s ever and had a significant ice rebound.
We know that was unusual as the Arctic had been losing ice and having mild/warm anomalies.
This could just be coincidence but I have more to it. Last July/August, the Southern Hemisphere had some extreme cold hitting Argentina and Brazil. Coldest temperatures in tropical coffee growing areas since 1994. In Southern Brazil and Argentina record snows and cold on several occasions in July and August.
The pattern that caused it was similar to what we are seeing now in the mid latitudes of the US right now, with tremendous cold air delivery and meridional flow………only 6 months earlier, during their Winter when the sun was in a similar position.
So we had extreme cold in the highest latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere 6 months ago during its Summer, while in the Southern Hemisphere it was extreme cold delivery to lower latitude during its Winter.
Then, exactly 6 months later, you can say the exact same thing, with the same extreme weather, only flipped…….with the South Pole doing exactly what the North Pole did(persistent extreme cold)
and the Northern Hemisphere doing the exactly same thing that happened in the Southern Hemisphere(extreme cold delivery from high latitudes to lower latitudes).
I have been an operational meteorologist for 32 years, the last 21 forecasting weather patterns world wide for crops and energies. Much of this weather stuff was not available to me until less than 15 years ago, so my comment is only that I have never noticed anything like this since then.
Pattern recognition is one of my specialties, which is exactly why I have picked up on similar and extreme patterns flipping to the opposite sides of the planet 6 months later.
Coincidence? Maybe.
Let me look at more historical weather patterns. I recently looked at our bitter cold Winter of 1976/77 in the Northern Hemisphere and see similarities to this one.
Brazil coffee had one of the most devastating freezes in history in July of 1975. Coffee was grown at a slightly higher latitude back then but it suggests one of the coldest outbreaks reaching low latitudes in history during the Winter of that year in the Southern Hemisphere.
Unmentionable says:
January 20, 2014 at 7:35 pm
Thanks,
Mike Maguire says:
January 21, 2014 at 1:21 pm
Sorry for the misinterpretation.
That observation is indeed very interesting and no wonder it explains why sea ice is so high in the SH and the ocean temperatures surrounding the land mass so cold.The Arctic summer last year was the coldest in DMI history I believe, so would be very interesting to see Antarctica follow suit with one of its coldest. Don’t think people would be able to deny the link with a much quieter solar cycle if this trend continues.