
Image Credit: NSIDC
WUWT Regular “Just The Facts”
As you can see from the Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent With Anomaly map above, there are currently two large fingers of anomalous Sea Ice protruding out in the Weddell Sea. This is the same Weddell Sea that in 2012 it was claimed that;
“Warm ocean currents are projected to melt the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf in the Weddell Sea area of Antarctica opening instabilities in the West Antarctic Ice sheet (WAIS) which will impact global sea level rise. Climate change is waking up the sleeping giant of Antarctica.
Significant scientific research has been published in recent weeks on the impact of global warming on changing wind patterns and southern ocean currents and the flow-on impact on Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers. The most recent studies reveal the potential instability of the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf in the Weddell Sea area. But the real questions to be asked concern the long term stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) and how rapidly it could collapse raising global sea levels by up to 6 metres.” Climate Citizen
So there are no apparent signs of the “warm ocean currents” that “are projected to melt the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf in the Weddell Sea area of Antarctica opening instabilities in the West Antarctic Ice sheet”. If fact those fingers still look reasonably concentrated;

and Antarctic Sea Ice Extent – 15% or Greater has remained above two Standard Deviations of the 1981 – 2010 average for the entire melt season:

Additionally, Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice Area Anomaly has been above the 1979 – 2008 Average for the last two years:

Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice Area Anomaly is in the midst of its third large spike since 2007;

and there is a clear trend towards larger Southern Sea Ice Area Minimums:

The result is Global Sea Ice Area had its highest maximum since 2006 and remained stubbornly average for the entirety of 2013:

However, in terms of the large fingers of Sea Ice protruding into the Weddell Sea;

I think they may be a sign from Antarctica telling us that we’ve beat global warming, or at least that the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf in the Weddell Sea is safe from collapse for another year… What do you think?
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Leo Geiger says: @ur momisugly January 19, 2014 at 5:58 pm
….It is more complicated than that, but that is the general idea. Pine Island has been thinning continuously for decades. Does that count as observational evidence of warm currents?….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Yes it is more complicated. It is called a VOLCANO!
First evidence of under-ice volcanic eruption in Antarctica: …“This eruption occurred close to Pine Island Glacier on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.
2011: Giant Undersea Volcanoes Found Off Antarctica: …All told a dozen previously unknown peaks were discovered …Also important is the fact that the still active volcanoes have hydrothermal vents Well I guess there is your warm sea water.
Fritz: I like to delve into etymology occasionally. It seems us colonist have a poor understanding of the history of our words (if I had the energy I would write a book entitled, “Where’s the Corn in my Corned Beef”?).
I looked into the naming of Pine Island Bay/Glacier. They are named after the USS Pine Island, which I presume was used for research down there. Alas, not only are there no pines, there is no island, either.
Aussies have always had problems with rabbits!
Leo Geiger says: January 19, 2014 at 5:58 pm
Pine Island has been thinning continuously for decades. Does that count as observational evidence of warm currents?
No, as you said, it’s complicated and there are numerous variables, including “atmospheric variability and local ice shelf and seabed geometry” which “play fundamental roles in determining the response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate.”
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/343/6167/174.abstract
Pine Island is a proxy, observational evidence comes from measurement of the occurrence in question. Observational evidence of “signs of warm ocean currents” would come from measurement of “warm ocean currents”. Perhaps you can find some Argo buoys to support your assertion?
But the real point here is that it *is* complicated. Enough so that drawing conclusions about ice shelves based on sea ice extent is a very bad idea.
Unusually high Sea Ice Extent and Area is reasonably good indication that there aren’t nearby “warm ocean currents”, and thus if “warm ocean currents” are what is supposedly going to cause the collapse of the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, I am comfortable concluding that collapse isn’t imminent.
Consider that. On top of the decadal thinning because of the Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW), a change in the depth of the thermocline, in two short years, lowered the temperature enough to decrease the basal melting rate by 50%. Would your plot of sea ice extent have told you either of those things?
No, but according to this;
“Here, we use satellite interferometric synthetic-aperture radar observations from 1992 to 2006 covering 85% of Antarctica’s coastline to estimate the total mass flux into the ocean. We compare the mass fluxes from large drainage basin units with interior snow accumulation calculated from a regional atmospheric climate model for 1980 to 2004. In East Antarctica, small glacier losses in Wilkes Land and glacier gains at the mouths of the Filchner and Ross ice shelves combine to a near-zero loss of 4±61 Gt yr−1.”
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v1/n2/abs/ngeo102.html
and this;
“Oceanic melting decreased by 50% between January 2010 and 2012, with ocean conditions in 2012 partly attributable to atmospheric forcing associated with a strong La Niña event.”
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/343/6167/174.abstract
there doesn’t seem to be much loss from the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf in the last 30 years and there might actually be a gain.
The reason there are “no apparent signs” is because you are looking at sea ice extent. It’s the wrong tool for the job.
To clarify here, would you expect to see large positive Sea Ice Extent and Area anomalies around ice shelves that were being rapidly melted from below by “warm ocean currents”?
I’m sorry if the Pine Island glacier example is too far removed from Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf in the Weddell Sea, but it is the area I’m most familiar with.
I understand, if one is trying to prove that Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming is upon us, one must focus one energy on the glaciers that are shrinking versus those that are growing…
fenbeagleblog says:
January 19, 2014 at 2:09 pm
It’s a white Rabbit. Now do a white Elephant. There looks like there’s ‘room’.
fenbeagleblog,
Ya got me – big belly laugh!
Mac
Turn that last picture 90 degrees clockwise and you will find the dog who ate their homework.
I have noticed an odd and persistent cold anomaly that has been situated near the South Pole during for a couple of months now, during their warm weather/Summer season.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850anom_sh_alltimes.html
Interestingly, the Arctic, during it’s warm weather season was also consistently cold like this during 2013’s Summer.
I watch the weather in Brazil and Argentina this time of year because they grow a big crop of corn and soybeans and prices for those commodities are influenced by their growing season. I don’t usually pay close attention to the extremely high latitudes so I’m not sure how significant this is.
What is wild speculation, with no data to back it up is the possibility that something is having an effect to suppress temperatures at very high latitudes during Summers.
Maybe it’s a coincidence and/or I just happened to notice it. However, if it continues to be a pattern that repeats and only in the Summers, when solar radiation is maximized, then something related to the sun might be causing it.
In these regions, we go from no sun in the Winters to sun all day in the Summer. The contrast might result in a response that is more obvious than at lower latitudes.
Any thoughts?
Ya know, I really dont like that change.
One must understand what makes such. Do we?
So,,,,,,,, in the end what impact does the increasing ice have on sea level?
What happens to all that salt removed?
Heavy brine deep water currents, if you will….
Something below sea level made the ice growth possible.
How does that work in a complex system as we have with understanding climate…..
One good storm and “ice loss in antarctica” is in the news.
Warning: mindless irrelevant long anecdote from a peeved observer.
For the past 3 weeks we’ve had a constant and silly stream of melodrama imagery of fairly prosaic heat waves and the very commonplace (and rather minor) rash of the annual bushfires in Southern inland Australia. And very much, of this very little, has been made in the shock-drama media usual suspects.
In light of the ‘unexpected’ summer ice south of Australia and South America etc., just want to add a little much needed perspective.
As a kid I may have experienced a cooler Spring and Summer, especially January, in north eastern Australia. That is possible for I would not notice if any of those summers as a youngster were unusually cool, if I were not acclimated to normal variability.
I’m in my early 50s and has closely watched the tropical weather closely all my adult life due to several very close encounters with death during a large and slow-moving Cat-4 tropical cyclone called ‘Sheila-Sophie’, 925 millibars (measured) on 15th Feb 1971, in Roebourne WA. That was the equal second-lowest central pressure measured within Australia up to that date, since systematic records began in the late 1850s. Incidentally, the other 925 millibar central pressure was a cyclone that struck just south of Innisfail, in 1918. However, Cyclone Larry also hit Innisfail, in 2006, @ur momisugly 925 hectopascals (millibars)! Al Gore visited Australia right after that storm and directly blamed TC Larry on AGW, but what about the 1918 cyclone Al? Was that one AGW too? It must have been … right mate? … dats jus logikal!
___
i.e.
“This is not a political issue, it’s a moral one – it’s deeply unethical,” he said. Now, Mr Gore has brought the message to Australia, where he says the stakes are extremely high. “In many ways, Australia has more at risk than any other country,” he said. “I would hope that Australia would put more pressure on the US by adopting this global agreement and then the US would feel enormous pressure to change.” He says events like cyclone Larry and other severe storms are a direct result of climate change. “You are the driest of the inhabited continents,” he said. “Your grain growing areas are at risk. “Ocean storms become stronger – you’ve had series of category 5 cyclones. “All of these effects have been predicted and all of them will get worse and worse until we turn the thermostat down.” Mr Gore joined politicians and community leaders at the Australian premiere of the film in Sydney.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2006-09-10/global-warming-poses-major-threat-to-aust-gore/1260282
___
Anyway I took a keen interest in weather after that, and I can say without reservation that this summer is undoubtedly the coolest and most pleasant and surprising summer I’ve ever experienced, in North Queensland.
Despite the routine daily forecasts all this month for max-temps around 33 or 34 degrees, the day temps have hovered around 31 (airport ATIS records verify this) and the humidity has been unusually low for most of the past two months. Regardless of the truth, every night I see a daily ‘recorded’ temps in the media that claim we are having temps of 33 to 34 degree.
This is untrue, the figures being claimed in the media are clearly not accurate, and are being over-reported by as much +3 degrees above what we are actually experiencing. This is the Emperor’s new cloths effect, in effect. If you care about this stuff, take note that the media in Australia are doing this. If you see this occurring where you are, keep data and keep records and notes of it. The time will come when various people will need to explain what they’ve been doing, and having systematic records showing this routine biasing of temp ‘data’ and reporting will be required.
So during the absurdity of these ‘horror’ heat-waves and bushfires amped within the media the Coral sea has remained cool and the air over it and Queensland dry as well (until now), because large highs keep blowing stiff and cooler than normal dry SE trade-winds on to the eastern coastline.
The oddly cooler winds have then been blowing inland across North Queensland, and Northern Territory, then turning south over inland Western Australia, heating up through the resulting large heat trough, and then entering South Australia from the west and back into western Victoria as the ‘Heat Waves’ (the back half of these large Bass Strait to Tasman sea Highs).
It’s all been due to that cyclic flow set up by the large persistent cooler than usual highs in the Tasman that has triggered the heat-wave, which is a normal mechanism for them to develop, it’s just that North Queensland’s coast has been noticeably cooler than normal due to them this year. That flow is also why the lows and cyclones so far have struck northern WA and the western NT.
The steady stream of strong back-building Highs that set up this pattern, which has so far completely blocked the monsoon flow over half of northern Australia, is pulling up cooler and drier air than normal. However, these Highs don’t seem to be sourcing their air from any further south than normal. Which suggest there must be more cooler air and cooler water at lower latitudes, i.e. the antarctic summer must be quite cold, given it is thus slowing or preventing the usual warming of the coral sea and is drying out north Queensland, plus blocking the monsoon’s high humidity flows into QLD near Papua’s southern coastline (thus far).
It will be interesting to see how much longer this pattern lasts, and if the coral sea monsoon remains blocked. So far the cyclones have been central south pacific this year, not even any tropical storm build-ups in the coral sea so far. The BOM’s current 4-day forecast chart shows the sustained pattern I’m talking about, and it is predicted to continue for most of the next week as well (but looks like it could break down soon if the next high weakens and allows a deep layer of humid air to flow in).
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml
So that’s what’s driving the heatwaves, an unusual southern ocean coolness has sustained larger highs for longer into summer than normal, which paradoxically produces central Australian heating by blocking the monsoon’s cooling clouds and rain.
But no one wants to tell you the larger picture, as the money and ratings are all in amping the melodramatic and heaping-up spin.
This January will go down in my memory as the coolest I’ve experienced in at least 40 years. I noticed something like this last summer, as well, but it was not as pronounced. Last summer was shorter and cooler, and less humid than normal, and there were zero coral sea cyclones last summer as well, which was very unusual. And despite a warm 2013 winter, the summer cool-down effect on the eastern coast has been much more pronounced, effectively the normal summer has not arrived. And nor has the usual 4 to 6 week build up to the rain. We’re experiencing what are protracted late spring-like conditions but we are now moving toward the final week of January (so can probably expect a sharpish drought to follow).
I’m not complaining though, it’s been great, I saved $$$ as I’ve not used my air-conditioner, which is a first. So I’m not contributing to the subsidising of the massive global reduction of evil carbon-dioxide. Isn’t it marvellous, you pay a tax and the CO2 decreases … it’s so clever!
But what I am getting quite cranky about is the persistent and radical lack of objectivity I see within the BOM’s heat-wave map forecasting. Hey BOM why don’t you tell the whole story within your heat-wave forecast mapping fetish? Why don’t you index and depict the anomalous coolness and associated anomalous low-humidity flow as well? Or would that render the narrative less spun a caricature of AGW-ishness? Come on BOM pull yer socks up! Would it kill you to be objective about forecasting and observations presentation? You used to be able to do that. Maybe you’ve too many supercomputers and modellers and not nearly enough basic honesty these days? Hey, it can happen.
Hope you get well soon.
And ABC, what is it with you, … you … Bodgies!? Congets, you’re actually worse than CNN’s overdosed-melodrama and spin-ism circus. Yes, you can keep mutually patting yourself on the back, but keep in mind, nonsense and BS won’t fool those who actually experience the divergence between melodrama and actual weather conditions. The more you indulge in that, the more peripheral and irrelevant you are. If you think this endears you to the public, assists them, or secures your role and your future and jobs, good luck with that.
doubt it.
Anyway, I dearly wish our summers were this cool, and “feels-like” as pleasant as now, every year … it can happen.
How about a “Rabbit Proof Fence” at the 47th parallel South to protect Australia from the ice?
Well, what I meant was the deep water flow from the Arctic that travels along the bottom of the Atlantic to Antarctica, then wells up and mixes before dispersal into other currents. Not all of it makes it to the surface, some of it comes up to an intermediate current. It will be interesting to see what impact this has.
Tom J 1:01pm
You need to move to a liberal state and get into their politics — even the presidency is not beyond you. Raygun control could be your wedge issue.
You obviously had a lot of fun writing it and I had a lot of fun reading it. What more can you ask?
Eugene WR Gallun
Pat 2:16pm
An international team of scientists says:
“The question of how global warming will change the frequency of extreme El Nino events has challenged scientists for more than 20 year.”
Bullshit comes easy. PLAUSIBLE BULLSHIT is much harder to produce. The struggle in all warmists circles is to produce plausible bullshit. Considering the talent level of the people involved, that it took climate scientists 20 years to develop some plausible bullshit about extreme El Nino events is not unexpected or exceptional.
Eugene WR Gallun
“People think computers will keep them from making mistakes. They’re wrong. With computers you make mistakes faster.” – Adam Osborne
More like middle finger to the departing climate scientists warmist that got ice-pack’ed?
@jtom,
I thank you very much , I found this link which détails the mission of the USS Pine Island to Antarctica
http://www.south-pole.com/pine.htm
Leo Geiger:
Your post at January 19, 2014 at 6:02 pm is a keeper!
As troll BS it is eye-wateringly funny.
You provided links which you say supported your arguments about sea ice.
Your links ONLY discussed “ice shelves” and I quoted them back to you.
This is my post which you are answering
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/19/antarctica-has-sea-ice-rabbit-ears-a-v-for-victory-or-maybe-its-a-peace-sign/#comment-1541594
Your reply says in total
I “CONFUSED” NOTHING. YOU DID!
And you did it in attempt to pretend that you had evidence to support your untrue assertions. I only copied and quoted from your links which show you don’t have anything except untrue assertions.
Richard
Richard — try to keep it civil. In the full text of the paper it says:
Surveyed ice-shelf mass loss of 287 ± 89 Gt/year in 2003–2008 (∂H/∂t) is 28 ± 9% higher than that required to maintain the ice shelves in steady state for 2003–2008.
so perhaps you can help me out and explain where you are getting “The ice shelves are growing” from.
Leo Geiger:
I pointed out YOUR egregious behaviour in my post at January 20, 2014 at 3:30 am
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/19/antarctica-has-sea-ice-rabbit-ears-a-v-for-victory-or-maybe-its-a-peace-sign/#comment-1542111
and you have replied at January 20, 2014 at 5:24 am saying
Your gall is astonishing.
But you continue to demonstrate your gall in that post and the remainder of it says
Please don’t obfuscate by pretending to be an idiot.
The above article says
and the article provides evidence of sea-ice growth in the area then says
That is what the discussion is about.
That is what you claimed to dispute.
So,
1.
The above article reports recent sea-ice growth which refutes existence of the claimed effect of asserted “warm ocean currents”.
2.
You disputed that and cited your links.
3.
I pointed out that your linked items each says the ice is reduced by “warm ocean currents”.
4.
You now claim the ice was reported to be reducing prior to 2008 according to model studies.
5.
It is now 2014 and we see the ice has increased.
6.
Models are evidence of the views of their constructors, but the measurements of increased sea-ice are evidence that the ice is increasing. And that increase refutes existence of the claimed effect of asserted “warm ocean currents”.
Richard
I would expect to see *no simple relationship* between sea ice extent and melting ice shelves. Surface conditions could make a good year for sea ice while subsurface changes could weaken ice shelves in the same area, or the other way around too. Sea ice extent is a lousy proxy for ice shelf dynamics.
You have an interesting approach to deciding what papers are using valid methods:
Sorry for the bad formatting above. Everything after ‘”This” is a paper’ was supposed to be outside of blockquotes.
Richard
Ice shelves reduced by warm ocean currents. Not sea ice. The whole idea here is that what happens on the surface (sea ice) is a poor proxy for what happens at the basal melt zone of an ice shelf. I gather you think “ice is ice” so ice shelves must growing since sea ice is growing, and what happens at the ocean surface is a good proxy for everything beneath. In a world that simple, I guess you are absolutely right.
Just for the record (as we’re about post 100), I called it with the very first post:
M Courtney says at January 19, 2014 at 10:57 am
Yep, the argument is that the ice must have flowed off the land. How else does ice form on water?
And I also called that no-one would want to actually go and take a measurement
After all the models can be consistent with warm ocean currents.
Models can be consistent with anything.
Apparently, that is the point of climate models.
Leo Geiger:
This is getting really, really silly. I can only suppose the silliness results from your desperation.
In your post at January 20, 2014 at 6:30 am you say
This derives from my quoting from THE LINKS YOU PROVIDED in my post at January 19, 2014 at 2:35 pm
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/19/antarctica-has-sea-ice-rabbit-ears-a-v-for-victory-or-maybe-its-a-peace-sign/#comment-1541594
The first of those quotations says
But you are claiming the quotation does not indicate that the same “ocean waters” would melt sea ice.
So, please explain
1.
How do “ocean waters” get “beneath” “Antarctic ice shelves” to cause “melting the undersides” of them?
2.
What physical and or chemical effects prevent the same effect occurring to sea ice that “ocean waters” are “beneath” when the sea ice is floating on those “warm ocean waters”?
Or is this yet another unexplained mystery of faith which has to be accepted as a doctrine of climastrology?
The second quotation I provided is from your other link and says
Oh! So,
“Half of the meltwater comes from 10 small, warm-cavity Southeast Pacific ice shelves occupying 8% of the area. A similar high melt/area ratio is found for six East Antarctic ice shelves, implying undocumented strong ocean thermal forcing on their deep grounding lines.”
In other words, this accelerated melt is also claimed to be “undocumented strong ocean thermal forcing on their deep grounding lines” so the same two questions arise as I posed concerning the other quote.
Leo, surely you can see the logical difficulty with your claim that “warm ocean waters” melt the bottom of land-based ice shelves but do not melt the ice floating on the “warm ocean waters”?
Richard
ossqss says: @ur momisugly January 19, 2014 at 8:56 pm
…One good storm and “ice loss in antarctica” is in the news.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
You are thinking Arctic where storms can move ice away from the pole through the straits and into the warm sea.
The Antarctic is configured differently. It is a large land mass with a current that goes round and round it isolating it from warmer waters. Increased wind just piles the ice up so it does not melt in the ‘summer’
Read my post above: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/19/antarctica-has-sea-ice-rabbit-ears-a-v-for-victory-or-maybe-its-a-peace-sign/#comment-1541655
I link to a chapter in a Naval Marine Safety Manual with a very good map of ocean currents.